Monday, 29 September 2008

First cracks emerge in NSW law

Will this be the start of the law being overturned, or will the exemption only apply to telephone betting?

RacingandSports article

Friday, 26 September 2008

it's AFL Grand Final time

More obscure sports advice. Well, it's obscure in the UK, but it certainly isn't in southern Australia.

Here's the Betfair betting guide on Aussie Rules footy.

If you fancy waking up at 5am for the climax of the AFL season, it's worth trading. Firstly - Aussies can't bet online during a match. So they have to phone up to place a bet, meaning liquidity is quite thin. This means you can put up a market at 107% and be front of the queue rather than 101% like in most other sports. The game can have massive swings, it's not uncommon for teams to go on four or five goal runs, and then concede similar. The wind can play a part, but teams change ends at the end of each quarter to keep it fair.

It's a great sport for in-play betting, possibly the best because of the high scoring and potential for big swings.

My tip, Geelong by about 30pts. I won't be trading it because I'll be at the pub from 4.30am celebrating 'our national day' with fellow Aussies in London!

Monday, 22 September 2008

snooker to finally clean itself up?

Snooker has been one sport marred by betting scandals in low-level events in recent years. After years of knocking back Betfair's offer to share data with them in a memorandum of understanding, they might finally take it up after yet another scandal....

Guardian article

Wednesday, 17 September 2008

Tuesday, 16 September 2008

bookie hitting the wall or just dropping affiliate bonuses

PartyBets and Gamebookers look to be heading out of business, or are they?

PartyBets and Gamebookers (affiliate deals) to be abolished

Gambling blog/news sites aren't the most reliable of sources, and to me this reads as if PartyGaming could simply be dropping all their marketing for the sportsbetting arm. But who knows?

Correction to this - the site has apologised for the hysteria, PartyGaming were just changing their affiliate terms.

Monday, 15 September 2008

no joy in the bikes

The after-effects from Hurricane Ike meant there was no 250cc class last night at the Indianapolis MotoGP which was a shame. I had a nice book going pre-race which always helps with trading in-running. Ah well, c'est la vie. Didn't get a chance to trade the 125cc race, and as I said, the MotoGP is often a little harder, so as I couldn't focus on it, I chose to leave it.

Sunday, 14 September 2008

the gloves are off

Australian punters are in for an amazing serving of new treats and offerings - the benefit of proper competition, as a result of the Betfair v WA and Betfair & Sportingbet v NSW court cases.

From the SMH -

Free rein for online bookies


* Roy Masters
* September 15, 2008

INTERSTATE corporate bookmakers have been given the nod to sponsor NSW sporting teams and advertise, following the Herald's revelation last week of Centrebet's aggressive move to flout decades-old laws banning cross-border promotions.


NSW was the only state to try to defend these absurd, antiquated laws, despite every other state having them since the early 1900s. A whole new wagering landscape is on the horizon for Australian punters... and about bloody time too!

Sunday action

More MotoGP to get involved in tonight, althought it's at an odd hour being in the USA. Not sure how liquidity will go up against NFL and various other sports, although to be honest, most MotoGP punters are probably European, so it could be even better than normal. The strategy is simply keep laying the shorties bit-by-bit and take advantage of the changing prices. Give a half-decent price for the punters to take and you'll see action. Don't know the sport? Irrelevant, you just have to understand that most punters will see a price and take it so long as it is half decent, and that with motorbikes, the lead changes so often, that the race is live until the end. And the underclasses are usually better than the main race as the margins you can work to are much higher. You won't make thousands out of it, but you'll return a nice healthy profit on £20 or £50 risks..

And for a punt in La Liga, I fancy Deportivo to beat Villarreal at about 4.2.

Friday, 12 September 2008

Racing NSW legislation in trouble already

Surprise, surprise, the greed of Racing NSW is showing cracks already. Leading bookie Tom Waterhouse has taken them to court and so have numerous other bookies apparently. Other states are looking at counter-legislation (Racing NSW is now charging other state TABs for using NSW race fields, thus all the other states are fighting back to charge them for using theirs - it used to all be free under a "gentleman's agreement" which meant the small states weren't ridiculously priced out of it) but crucially, are looking at charging operators on gross profits - like any other business, which bookies are much more willing to agree to. Fees on turnover are long outdated and are more likely to be manipulated by transactions being taken off-ledger...

Bill Saunders pulls no punches analysing this week's events here

Wednesday, 10 September 2008

football galore

So many games tonight, not enough time to analyse them all if that's your thing. Can't say I really get into the game, just way too many games to get excited about it, but when all else fails, lay England, either for the result, or just to trade out when the price drifts because they don't score early.

Wednesday, 3 September 2008

new strategies

I've just added some more articles to the Betfair Education site, and am always looking to add more content particularly for the punter who wants to take his trading up to the next level.

Here's an article about Price Leveraging. There'll be more to come on the site, and keep an eye on the monthly newsletter which is sent out to UK customers. We have a section in there called Strategy of the Month which throws up a few new ideas for you to ponder. Not saying they'll all work for you, just sowing some seeds that might turn into success for you.