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Showing posts from October, 2014

Breeders Cup overview

Wider coverage of the Breeders Cup two-day meeting, this time from world traveller and international racing enthusiast, Jon Thompson.

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Breeders Cup Overview
Friday 31st October and Saturday 1st November
Santa Anita

The Breeders’ Cup is not only a spectacle for horse racing fans it also presents a golden opportunity for serious players to make a gambling profit. These huge wagering Breeders Cup pools are filled with ‘square money’ making the payoffs, especially for exotic wagers, often incredibly high.

There are some that will confess to not being a fan of the extended Friday/Saturday format but with 13 races instead of the original ‘Great Eight’ this is what we are faced with. It presents an enormous task in trying to comprehend all the global form on offer as well as the changing circumstances of those racing on Lasix against those not.

This is not a guide on every horse, and in fact it is not a guide on every race, but it is an attempt to point out some appa…

Breeders Cup Distaff preview

It's Breeders' Cup weekend at the fabulous Santa Anita racecourse in California. Regular American racing contributor Jon da Silva, @creamontop, attacks the Distaff. Which to people outside the inner circle of the racing industry, means it is restricted to female horses.

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Breeders Cup Distaff (& others snippets)

At the Breeders Cup it's frustrating that the state of the track enters the picture. On Turf when the clerk is not inbred or a drunk this is obvious from the going description. However in addition to going changes Dirt tracks can be speed favouring i.e. front runners never come back or closer favouring or even fair. The appearance of these biases can also be an illusion based on of cognitive failure - "my bet lost because of a speed-favouring track" feels better than "I backed that nag with no speed who closed slower than Per Mertesacker"

Last year when Goldencents led all the way in the Mile it was said to be a "Gold…

Victoria Derby preview

Eponymous race of the day is the AAMI Victoria Derby. Every year we have the debate about whether a Derby so early in the season should be shortened. Nothing's changed over the past few decades, we're still not breeding great stayers, but perhaps, just perhaps, the penny is finally dropping with local breeders and the strength of the Derby might start improving as the likes of Americain, Fiorente and others start adding to the breeding mix.

Back to this year's race and it revolves around one horse. Let's ask the shrewd gents at Premium Punting which side of him they want to be...

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AAMI Victoria Derby
G1, 2500m, for 3yo
Race 7 - 3:45PM local time (0445 London)

By Premium Punting
Website
Twitter: @premiumpunting

Form link

Speed Map



This map provided is pre-settling, so you can see what each runner faces to get to their desired position and how much early energy will be exerted in doing so. It also shows the problems faced by some runners if they…

Mackinnon Stakes preview

There is simply nothing finer than Derby Day at Flemington. You can have your Royal Ascot, Breeders Cup, Arc day.... Derby Day beats them all, and it's rare that the Derby is actually the best race of the day! Group races from go to whoa, there's nothing finer.

Taking the reins to preview the WFA feature of the day is long-time contributor, Kieran Fitzgerald, @kjob85

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Longines Mackinnon Stakes
Group 1, WFA, 2000m
3pm Melbourne time (0400 London) Form guide link

1. Side Glance - scratched

2. Happy Trails (13) 59kg
A 7 year old gelding purchased for just $11,000, Happy Trails has been a great success for his trainer Paul Beshara, having amassed over $2m in prize money including Group One wins at Flemington in the Turnbull Stakes (over this distance) and Emirates Stakes, as well as a close second in last year’s Cox Plate. His best result this prep has been a second place in the Underwood to another runner here, Foreteller. His other runs have produced m…

Sports Trading Fund exposed as a scam

This one had all the signs of an utter scam. Unfortunately, the persons behind the fund are incredibly shady people and others who tried to expose them were threatened with violence and law suits, in no specific order, so it had go unchecked for a while.

With thanks to The Age...

Peter Foster implicated in international betting scandal

Hundreds of investors in an international gambling syndicate run by notorious conman Peter Foster could lose millions of dollars following his dramatic arrest at a luxury property near Byron Bay on Tuesday morning.

Foster is believed to have operated the Sports Trading Club while hiding from the Australian Crime Commission and other law enforcement agencies on the NSW north coast since September last year.

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"It doesn't matter what they claim on their website, Fosters' home in Byron Bay was the headquarters. This is another massive scam that is only coming to light now. It will collapse like a house of cards," the source said.

F…

Cox Plate preview II

And the alternative angle from Mitch Fenton. Certainly a few contrasting opinions to the previous post!

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Sportingbet Cox Plate
Group I, 2040m WFA
Form Guide here

By Mitch Fenton

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking



1.SACRED FALLS (NZ) – 9 – C.WALLER / Z.PURTON
ODDS: $6.50 (early fixed-odds prices from TAB)

The term champion, as many old-timers will tell you, is one bandied around far to often when it comes to modern day racehorses. But in my humble opinion this horse is a champion, if he can win the Cox Plate I believe it becomes an undoubtable fact.

Only champions can win back to back Doncaster Handicaps, Australia’s premier mile race, and he’s done exactly that. Add to that another Gr1 Randwick mile win in the George Main, plus the Gr1 NZ 2,000 Guineas when trained in New Zealand and you see one hell of a resume.

He’s had a terrific preparation for the race which has been Chris Waller’s target for the horse since his slashing second behind I…

Cox Plate preview 1

The weight-for-age championship of Australia takes place every spring at the quirky Moonee Valley racecourse. No superstars this year, just a field of very good horses and thus it looks like being 7/2 the field.

Two previews to post for the great race - first up, the pros from Premium Punting.

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Sportingbet Cox Plate
Group 1 WFA 2040m
Race 8 - 5:40PM (0740 UK time)

By Premium Punting
Website
Twitter: @premiumpunting

Speed Map – No queries on who leads



As stated above, there is no doubt that The Cleaner will be scooting across as they past the post the first time to lead from Side Glance, Almalad with Royal Descent & Fawkner to get excellent runs on inside just off the speed, exerting very little energy to lob into those spots. It is sure to be a very genuine gallop well above the historical benchmark. The map reads very awkwardly for international raider Adelaide, who does have the capability as proven last start to go back, but if he intends to se…

Manikato Stakes preview

Moonee Valley's great raceday has been split into two now, in a move doesn't sit well with too many of the traditionalists (like me). The headline act on Friday night is the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, amassing a tremendous field of sprinters. With the preview, it's Mitch Fenton.

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2014 MANIKATO STAKES PREVIEW
Group 1, 1200m WFA
Form guide

By Mitch Fenton

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking

1.BUFFERING – 4 – D.BROWNE / R.HEATHCOTE
ODDS: $6.50 (early TAB prices quoted)

Qld champion who finally broke his Group 1 maiden in this race 12 months ago when beating Hong Kong star Lucky Nine. Amazingly he now has four Group 1 wins to his name after claiming another one last start in the Moir Stakes at this track and trip.

Was allowed to lead and dictate in the Moir when Newitt decided to take the sit on Lankan Rupee, and after being beautifully rated by Browne in front he was too tough and staved them all off again!

He was at his most vulne…

Geelong Cup preview

With the Caulfield Cup been and gone, the stayers on the cusp of getting into the Melbourne Cup field will be doing everything to scrape into the field. One of the options is Wednesday's Geelong Cup. It might not have the quality of the years it was won by Media Puzzle, Americain and Dunaden, but it's still an important race of its own.

It's been a while between drinks but Mitch Fenton returns to the blog with his preview of one of Australia's strongest provincial races.

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Geelong Cup
Group III, 2400m Handicap.
Form Guide here

By Mitch Fenton

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking

MORE SUCCESS LIKELY FOR ANOTHER IMPORTED STAYER

1.SERTORIUS. R.MALONEY – J.EDWARDS
Terrific old tough, staying horse trained in the bush and as tough as teak.

Has twice placed at Gr1, in the 2014 Futurity at Caulfield over 1400m when second behind Moment of Change (no doubt should have won race!) and then backed it up with a third to The Offer in the Sydne…

Champions Day Long Distance Cup

It might have been rather wet this week, and a rather soggy track to race on, but it's still British Champions Day at Ascot. Based on the quality available for the respective races, it's hard to argue against the opening race being the strongest field of the day. Up steps Adam Webb, @adamwebb121

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Long Distance Cup
1.45pm, Group 2, 2m

QIPCO British Champions Day begins Ascot’s final flat card of the year with the stayers in the Long Distance Cup and with the persistent deluge of rain that has hit the Berkshire track this week, we are in for National Hunt style ground. To win this race you will need a thorough stayer who gets every single yard of the two mile trip.

Leading Light has proved to be one of the best stayers on either side of the Irish Sea this season. Last year’s Ladbrokes St Leger winner started his season with a bloodless success at Navan in the Vintage Crop Stakes over a mile and six furlongs beating Royal Diamond and Pale Mimosa. He …

Caulfield Cup preview II 2014

Race 9 - 5:40PM G1 Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)
Preview from Premium Punting - @premiumpunting

Speed Map



This map provided is pre-settling, so you can see what each runner faces to get to their desired position and how much early energy will be exerted in doing so. It also shows the problems faced by some runners if they choose to run to their previous historical pattern.

As the majority of speed maps show with a big field, there does look to be very genuine speed in the race with Japanese horse Bande going to take the lead from Lidari and Renew (if he gets a run). Brambles will then be attempting to find cover in the 2nd-3rd pair. Highly doubt connections of Big Memory will be taking the risk of going forward and expect he will shuffle back through the field.

Few horses drawn wide like Sea Moon & The Offer have early decisions to make to prevent from being trapped very wide past the post the first time.

PrePost Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner r…

Caulfield Cup preview I 2014

2014 Crown Golden Ale Caulfield Cup
2400m Group 1
Track- Good 3
Preview by Lachie Brown, @LBrownTweet

While not the strongest Caulfield Cup it’s sure to be an intriguing contest especially with so many planning to go onto the Melbourne Cup. Lucia Valentina is clear favourite at around $4 however it does look like a fairly even race.

Speed
Definitely won’t be the fastest edition of the Caulfield Cup. The runners yet to be seen in Australia are Bande, Admire Rakti and Seismos. Bande will lead from his middle gate, Seismos up there and Admire Rakti midfield. The early speed map suggested a wall of horses behind Bande, among them are Lidari, Gris Caro (now scratched) and Sydney horses Big Memory and The Offer (doubtful). From inside gates Green Moon and Stipulate are sure to get good runs while the likes of Junoob, Rising Romance and Who Shot Thebarman may be out very wide as they leave the straight. Lucia Valentina will also be midfield judging from her last run. Sea Moon and Dandino (no…