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Black Caviar Lightning Stakes preview

It's Autumn Carnival time in Australia and the racing heats right up at Flemington this weekend with the first leg of the sprinters' Triple crown, the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes. The mighty mare won this race three times in her career, now it's up to the next generation to take over. Lankan Rupee has already taken the mantle of world's best sprinter, but two rising stars in Deep Field and Brazen Beau will provide very worthy opposition for him in this affair.

Returning to the blog for the autumn features is Mitch Fenton from UBET.

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2015 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
Group 1, WFA, 1000m
Flemington, Saturday
1635 local time, 0535 GMT

Form guide
Odds comparison

IN-DEPTH PREVIEW by Mitch Fenton, @mitchfenton88, from UBet.

1.LANKAN RUPEE

The shining class runner in the event which unfortunately doesn't have the depth you'd hope for in a Group 1.

After dominating this time last year with Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap wins, both in easy fashion (and then going on to win the TJ Smith at Randwick), he just didn’t seem to be the same horse during the Spring.

He was beaten (a lip) first up by Angelic Light – beaten (again a lip) by Buffering in the Moir - scraped home in the Manikato where any one of six horses could and should have beaten him – then was simply no match for Chautauqua and Terravista in the Darley Classic at Flemington (only beaten a length) …..But I’m willing to forgive and forget the entire prep as he had been vaccinated for a HK trip which never eventuated, but the vaccine very often flattens geldings and takes their brilliance right away.

At his best though in my opinion he’s still Australia’s / the World’s best sprinter. He resumes here off a 103 day break so he should be fit and ready to go. Deep Field and Brazen Beau are young upstarts out to show-up Lankan, but I’m sticking with him and after watching his trials and jump outs I’m anticipating another big autumn carnival from him.

2.WATERMANS BAY
WA visitor who is a Listed / Group 3 winner (although beaten a head in the G1 Winterbottom in November). That’s his grade and as a six year old gelding it’s hard to see him improving his rating anywhere near enough in this. Very slim place hope at best.

3.FAB FEVOLA
Speed machine who started his career in Brisbane before heading to Melbourne. He’s a speed machine and will lead for some period of the race but there’s no way he’s up to this class.

His last start win was in a BM78 race at Moonee Valley. That’s his level. Way out of his depth here. $22k for fourth, $10k for sixth, free owners' tickets for the day and an 8yo with eight wins from 111 starts gets a start in a Group 1.

4.THE QUARTERBACK
Handy galloper who has a Listed win to his name, but he’s simply got no hope in this.

5.DEEP FIELD
A brilliant winner of five from five including a Gr2 win during Melbourne Cup week down the straight (1200m), into a savage headwind. Steps up to Gr1 WFA now though which is by far the acid test of his career to date.

Could be absolutely anything….But as a equal $2.40 with Lankan Rupee I’m happy enough to go with to more experienced Gr1 WFA horse. If he does win it would be time to get very very excited because he’s a superstar.

6.BRAZEN BEAU
Coolmore Stud winner at this track on Derby Day during the Flemington Carnival and he did it all in easy fashion, against a very strong field although most of those (Bring Me The Maid, Earthquake, Eloping, Rubick, Scissor Kick) were well beaten, perhaps at the end of their preps.

I’m happy to risk him coming from restricted 3yo grade straight into Gr1 WFA, but still expect him to run well.

TOP PICK: 1.LANKAN RUPEE

SUGGESTED BET: TRIFECTA 1 TO BEAT 5 TO BEAT 6. $50 = 5000%

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