Friday, 20 March 2015

Golden Slipper preview

It's Slipper Day in Sydney, the best day of racing of the year north of the Murray with five Group 1s. Just such a shame that they'll only get about 1/4 of the crowd which turn up to Derby Day at Flemington.... #verysydney

Taking on the 2yo Championship of the World (well, the richest 2yo race anyway), is regular contributor Mitchell Fenton, @mitchfenton88, from UBET.

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Tooheys New Golden Slipper
Rosehill Gardens, 1200m
Group 1, $3.5m, 2yo

1630 local time, 0530 GMT

Formguide

Odds Comparison

The big feature for the 2yos and the $3.5 million prize pool sees it maintain its status as the world’s single richest two-year old race.

Here’s an in-depth runner-by-runner look at the race.

1.VANCOUVER
Star Medaglia D’Oro colt trained by the two-year old genius Gai Waterhouse. He has a perfect record of three from three.

He won the Breeders' Plate on debut back in the Spring by leading all the way beating the highly-fancied Team Hawkes runner Saboog, who is the full brother of Slipper runner-up (behind Pierro) and Gr1 winning mare Snitzerland.

Then resumed in the Autumn beating Gai’s colt Outreach in the Canonbury at Rosehill, Outreach being a full relation to Gai’s 2013 Slipper winner Overreach. He showed his versatility that day by settling well back in the small field of six before running home to score with conviction again.

He stamped himself as a potential superstar then by winning the Gr2 Todman at Randwick by a massive 3.5L beating home Furnaces and Headwater who he’ll face again here. He ran very slick time overall in winning and his last 600m sectional was four lengths quicker than average.

The knock is obviously drawing the outside gate of 16 and for mine but that’s the only knock, had he have drawn well he would have been nearly past the post even in such a quality race. He can go forward or settle back in the field and that versatility may help overcome the alley. Wins with luck and good T.Berry ride.

2.HEADWATER
Brilliant winner of his first two races including the Gr2 Silver Slipper Stakes at Rosehill that saw him start $1.75 in the Todman against Vancouver. Blake Shinn elected to sit three wide without cover that day and he was a beaten horse a long way out, before plugging on OK late to nab third, but he was a whopping 5.5L behind Vancouver.

That’s a hell of a lot of ground to make up and even though I think he’s better than what he showed in the Todman, I can’t see him turning the tables on Vancouver or Furnaces for that matter unless “Group 1” Glenn Boss can produce some sort of little miracle.

3.FURNACES
The first of four Godolphin runners in the field. Comes here at start four a la the top two. Huge debut winner by 6.5L at Rosehill last spring before being immediately tipped out for a spell by O’Shea. Has come back this prep with two second placings including last start behind Vancouver in the Gr2 Todman beaten 3.5L. Looks an handy type who probably wants a bit further, lacking any real brilliance over 1200m. Place chance.

4.HAPTIC
Unbeaten from two career starts including the listed Lonhro Stakes at Randwick last start where he beat stablemate Furnaces. That form ties in with Vancouver. On pacer who from barrier three will likely be able to lead with James Doyle riding but not sure he has the class of some of these other youngsters, and think he’s a place chance at best.

5.EXOSPHERE
Flopped on debut as an odds-on favourite being going for a spell. Has won both starts this prep firstly a Kembla Grange maiden before an explosive win in the Gr2 Skyline Stakes at Warwick Farm. That run sees him a legitimate chance here to snare the Slipper. He showed a brilliant turn of foot and that’s often what wins Golden Slippers. James McDonald should be able to position him close and let him unleash a big finish. One of the main hopes.

6.READY FOR VICTORY
Won impressively on debut. Comes here at just his second race start. There’s no telling just how good he might be. A real wildcard hope!

7.ODYSSEY MOON
Prefer others but champion international jockey Ryan Moore, who claimed the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup last spring, takes the ride.

8.ENGLISH
Gai’s unbeaten filly winning 2 from 2. I prefer other formlines, howevere it’s tough to ever completely dismiss a Gai Waterhouse trained 2yo in the Slipper.

9.REEMAH
Nosed out in the Blue Diamond at just her second start in a race, after the stable tipped her on radio at a huge price. That day she ran the fastest last 600, 400 and 200m splits of the race. That shows that she’s high quality. A real live knockout chance at 40-1.

10.SPEAK FONDLY
Won last start but I prefer the other Waterhouse runners.

11.FIREWORKS
Looks to me like she wants further and will be better suited in the Sires and Champagne.

12.HAYBAH
Won last start in Adelaide but highly doubt it’s got what it takes in a Slipper.

13.OTTOMAN Big boom on her before Xmas, beating Pride of Dubai on debut, and then a little disappointing this campaign with mild excuses in being caught wide and over-racing. Probably not up to it.

14.LAKE GENEVA
Went to the Blue Diamond at just race start number two and was terrific running a gallant third behind Pride of Dubai. Has been freshened up since and draws a decent gate for the first time here.

15.SINGLE GAZE
Prefer others.

16.LOOK TO THE STARS
Not for me.

TIPS:
1.VANCOUVER
5.EXOSPHERE
6.READY FOR VICTORY
9.REEMAH

SUGGESTED BET; 1.VANCOUVER TO WIN, 9.REEMAH EACH WAY AT BIG ODDS.

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