Skip to main content

Randwick Guineas preview

Great racing at Randwick this weekend, headlined by the Randwick Guineas. Unfortunately we've lost Scissor Kick to a virus and Kermadec to perhaps a slightly easier kill in Melbourne, but there are still three topline colts in the race.

On deck with the preview is Mitch Fenton, @mitchfenton88 from UBET.

-------------------------

Randwick Guineas
Group 1, 1600m, $600,000.
Randwick R6, 1530 local time, 0430 GMT


1.HALLOWED CROWN

Unbeaten at two when Bart kept him to the lesser company.

Won the Golden Rose second up last time beating Caulfield Guineas victor Shooting to Win in the process.

Has only once been beaten once in his career - where he had ample excuses behind subsequent Coolmoore Stud winner Brazen Beau at Randwick.

Resumed this prep with a narrow but impressive win in the 1400m (Golden Rose winning distance) Hobartville Stakes. Beat home Sweynesse (second), Kermerdec (third) and Shooting to Win (fourth). He looked vulnerable on the line that day but Bowman hadn't got stuck right into him til very late to with he responded well too.

It's a vintage crop of 3 year olds but this horse no doubt a clear standout for mine.

There's a reason global breeding giant Darley bought a undisclosed stake in the horse for an undisclosed but huge fee... He's Barts next (maybe last) champ.

2.PREFERMENT

VRC Derby winner who never got warm in the unsuitably short 1400m Hobartville.

Wait til he gets out over ground more ground in the Tulloch Stakes / Derby.

3.SHOOTING TO WIN

Raced keenly out of the barriers in the Hobartville and settled down on speed.

Gets up to 1600 m which is a big plus, won the Caulfield Guineas over the trip.

Have a feeling he wants longer now though - he finish was a real grind in the Hobartville fresh up.

4.SCISSOR KICK (scratched)

5.SWEYNESSE

Great effort fresh when 2nd fresh up in the Hobartville. Hallowed Crown had that worst going that day and the Godolphin galloper was not nearly as strong as the winner on the post.

I think the horse needs further, his late closing splits in last year's Cox Plate suggest 2000m / 2400m will be right up his alley.

6.KERMADEC (scratched)

7.RHODIN DRIVE

Not up to this grade.

8.SWORN TO SILENCE.

His two runs back have both been beauties! In particular the Hobartville run in which he clocked the fastest last sectionals. Might want further now but is a horse with a lot of scope.

TOP PICK:

#1 HALLOWED CROWN. Load up at the $2.70.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…