Skip to main content

Golden Slipper preview

It's Sydney's big race, the hell-for-leather juvenile sprint for a huge amount of money in front of a typically mediocre crowd in the western suburbs...and whaddyaknow, it's raining again!

With the preview, it's Aussie racing expert Mitch Fenton, @weekendkingrace. Read more of his work via his Facebook page.

--------------------------

Longines Golden Slipper
Group 1, 2yo, 1200m
AU$3.5m, Rosehill Gardens
1630 local, 0530 GMT


CONDITIONS
With rain expected in Sydney all week it’s almost certain to be a rain-affected track on Saturday @ Rosehill Gardens. That always throws a spanner into the works of any race but even more so with two year olds of which most have had no race exposure to anything but a good track.

We’ve done the form for the race based on a Slow (7) / Heavy (8) track. (Note - Soft 5 as at 2pm Friday)

SPEEDMAP



I think the way the race looks there will be a faster than average tempo in the race set up mainly by Extreme Choice who possesses brilliant mid race speed. Others may push forward to put pressure on the race favourite to try and ensure he doesn’t get it his own way. This would further increase the pace.

Extreme Choice won’t get a picnic in-front but that said he’s shown at all three career runs he can burn the candle both ends.

The fast pace will ensure that every horse in the race will get it’s opportunity to win.

In conclusion I think there is an advantage to those off the speed who will be running on.

THE RUNNERS

EXTREME CHOICE
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $3.30

The undefeated $20 million boom colt who brilliantly won the Group 1 Blue Diamond last start to advance his career record to 3/3.

He debuted at Randwick in December when defying a big drift in betting to score an impressive win, running a slashing time which rated a massive 9L faster than the 2yo class average. He proved he possessed lightning fast speed with his sectional times. He ran the 200m between the 800m mark and 600m mark in an astronomically fast 10.12 seconds. That’s elite. The most important thing to come out of the win was the fact he’d proven himself the Sydney way of going being a Melbourne-trained colt. The youngsters are always suspect going the reverse way the first time and tend to gain huge benefit from the experience from it gives.

Second start he returned home to Caulfield for the G3 Chairmans over 1000m and again he won with ease smashing the clock. He went 6L faster than the 2yo class average this time and again his 800m to 600m split was scary, doing it in 10.14. This is where he’s winning his races putting his foot down mid-race and then still being able to sustain a very high speed at the finish.

Last time out he bought up the hat-trick with another win in dashing time in the G1 Victorian 2yo feature the Blue Diamond, going 7L faster than average. Again it was the 800m-600m section where he won the race doing it in 10.60 this time, taking into account this was 1200m not the 1000m he’d raced over previously.

Some were of the belief that barriers were the only difference between Extreme Choice and Flying Artie, claiming in fact that Flying Artie was the better run. The figures don’t support that theory though, they suggest that Extreme Choice was extremely superior. He won the race by nearly 2L and Flying Artie did make up a couple of lengths on him from the 600m to the 400m but in the final 200 he only took 0.3L off Extreme Choice, so he was very safely held, it wasn’t as though in another stride or two he would have got beat. Flying Artie would have to match motors early and mid-race with Extreme Choice in this and stay within a length or two to turn the tables, but I doubt after spending that much fuel to keep up though he’d be able to finish off like he did in the Diamond.

This colt's ratings and figures are unbelievable and on par with champion colt Pierro who won the 2011 Slipper. His Blue Diamond winning time was just .30 off Sepoy’s record Blue Diamond winning time, the fastest 1200m 2yo time in the history of Caulfield.

Extreme Choice will go forward and lead or be outside the lead most likely and so he’s the one they’ve all got to beat. He only needs to reproduce any of his three career runs to date here to win. I can’t find a knock!

Some are suggesting he may have peaked in his Diamond win, but listening to Mick Price the Golden Slipper has always been on the radar so it’s even possible that he peaks here, that’s kind of scary! The $3.50 on offer is good shopping. He’s my top pick in the race and if not the best horse in the race he’s not doubt the fastest over 1200m.

2. FLYING ARTIE
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $13.00

Debuted in the G3 Maribyrnong Plate at Flemington Melbourne Cup week with a very narrow second behind Power Trip who led all the way. He settled back in the run but really powered through the line suggesting that he’s crying out for more ground.

He then went for a 12 week spell, before returning in the G3 Blue Diamond prelude for colts/geldings over 1100m at Caulfield. Again he jumped awkwardly but quickly found his stride to land just about midfield 4.5L off the lead. He ran home very hard to beat Star Turn in an impressive performance that stamped him as one of the best 2yos in Melbourne. His final 600m was run in 33.86, that’s a massive 5.2L faster than the 2yo class average. Clearly had the fastest 600, 400 and 200m splits in the race and up with the fastest of the card.

He then went to the Blue Diamond where he was highly fancied despite coming up with a bad gate. He had very solid support on track firming from $7 to SP at $5. He drifted back from the gate and couldn’t get much cover in the run. Was 13th on the bend, 3.7L off the eventual winner Extreme Choice, but unwound with a terrific finale to beat all bar winner, with the stablemate beating him home by 1.8L in the end. His last 600m sectionals were very impressive, he ran home his last 600m in a race fastest 34.58 vs Extreme Choice who was fractionally slower in 34.88. Flying Artie did take 2L off the winner from the 600m to home but on the line, but he was being well held with the winner strong to the line despite having done all the work in the run.

He looks a star colt. His Diamond run was terrific but it was also suggestive that he’s looking for further than 1200m. That said he might be able to position closer to the speed from a good gate in this and be closer to his stablemate. Has a definite winning chance.

Champion jockey Damien Oliver who had ridden Extreme Choice and Flying Artie both in the lead up to the Blue Diamond had a pick of rides in the G1 Diamond and sided with Flying Artie, suggesting he thinks it’s better than Extreme Choice. If you take anything from that it’s worth backing him.

I still think he’ll be better suited at 1400m in the Sires and will be almost unbeatable in it, but that’s not to say class can’t win this for him. Mick Price has a huge opinion of him and still says there’s plenty to come.

3. DEFCON
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $201

Peter and Paul Snowden-trained colt who debuted in the G3 Canonbury Stakes at Rosehill over 1100m on a heavy track. Got back to the last of the half dozen in the race but hooked wide and hit the line well to finish second a length off winner Tessara. It was a very pleasing debut effort by the colt and importantly if the track come Saturday is rated as heavy, we know he handles it well. One of the only two horses in the race to have had exposure to heavy ground. That might be a crucial point pending the prevailing weather in Sydney.

Went to the G2 1100m Silver Slipper at this track and again ran a very bold race, running on hard to narrowly go down to undefeated Godolphin colt Astern. Astern has won both race starts quiet impressively and is definitely the forgotten horse, he’s Godolphin’s #1 seed here. So the form from Defcon to run it to a half length is very good.

For his final Slipper lead up he went to the nation’s capital in Canberra for feature 2yo event the G3 Black Opal. He was slowly out and went back to the tail of the 10 runners on the inside. Inconvenienced on the bend when carted wider than he already was but soon balanced up and unwound a powerful finishing burst to score a commanding 1L win going away from them. It was an impressive victory, even though the class of those behind him is questionable.

Highly talented colt in a very good juvenile stable. He’s a real knockout chance and probably the best roughie in the race especially if the track deteriorates down to a heavy 9 or 10 come Saturday as that could likely slow his opponents and benefit him. Each-way hope.

4. KISS AND MAKE UP
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $3.30

Gai’s looking for her record breaking seventh win in the race. She’s a master of the babies. This aptly-named colt was so named after the infamous bust up between Waterhouse and the colt's owner John Singleton. This is the pair’s first horse after their business “divorce”.

On debut he jumped well and won a midweek 1200m Canterbury maiden riding the pace the whole way. The overall time was only fair, some 1.7L slower than the 2yo class average but her closing 600m split of 35.56 was pleasing, it rated 1.2L faster than the class average. That’s indicative that the colt got a soft run but zipped home.

Went straight to G2 level in the Todman Stakes at Randwick and repeated the dose leading the whole way to down ex-Slipper favourite Capitalist, who had every chance, with ease by 2.5L. The winning time was ok rating just a half length off average. However it was much quicker than the G2 fillies 1200m race on the same card by about 6.5L. He shows a good ability to cruise at a good speed and still accelerate, it’s a good sign in a horse.

This is his first racing prep so it’s all come pretty quickly for him so you’d expect him to further improve here. Drawn 9 so he’ll roll forward and sit up on the speed. On a steep upward spiral and we really don’t know yet how good he might be? Gai will have him primed we can be certain of that she’d love to win another Slipper for “Singo”. Definite winning hope.

5. ASTERN
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $61

Medaglia D’Oro, Godolphin-owned colt who hasn’t been beaten yet in two race starts and three barrier trials. He goes into the race as the #1 chance for Godolphin which sees him get the services of their #1 jockey James McDonald.

Debuted at Randwick in a 2yo handicap in early December and was heavily backed ON course from $4.6 to start $3.5. He sat outside the lead to the home bend and then quickly put the race away with an explosive turn of foot to score by 2.5L. His closing 600m split was 1.2L faster than average and his overall winning time was 1.7L faster than the 2yo class average. It was an impressive debut and shot him high up the Golden Slipper betting markets.

He was immediately tipped out to the paddock for a nine-week spell and showed further improvement straight away with an impressive barrier trial win. He resumed his racing prep in the 1100m G2 Silver Slipper Stakes with another terrific on pace win. Fill-in jockey Hugh Bowman shot the $1.55 favourite out of the gates to the front and that was the end of the section. He ran the fastest 800, 600, 400 & 200m sectionals in the race, his 600m time an impressive 2.4L faster than the average very good for a horse who led. That really shows he can run along at a good clip and still have another couple of gears to find. The overall winning time was very good 1.4L faster than average.

On March 4, the colt’s trainer John O’Shea advised that a blood test of Astern had revealed a high white blood cell count, forcing the colt out of his schedule run in the Todman Stakes. O’Shea said the colt had not missed any work and had been eating well so the stable intended to continue his preparation towards the Golden Slipper. That’s not ideal but it’s not disastrous at the same time. He bolted in a barrier trial on 10/03 at Warwick Farm by 4L and that confirmed what O’Shea had said about not missing work and it justified his decision to push on to the Slipper.

The Godolphin colt was dealt a blow at the barrier draw though coming up with gate 17, meaning even with scratchings he’ll start from the extreme outside gate. This will probably force McDonald’s hand in pushing forward. He does have one of the fastest average start time ratings in the field so there is some chance he’ll be able to lead or at least sit outside of the leader, the begging question is how much petrol will he spend getting into that spot. Slippers are never run at a dawdle though so there’s a good chance McDonald will have to burn him up to get there.

Luck in running for him is the key, but if he gets that luck there’s little doubting he’s got the quality to win. Definite winning chance.

6. STAR TURN
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $201

Trialled twice before starting his racing career in a 2yo Randwick maiden over 1000m. Bookies put him up at $1.55 on track on the virtue of his big trial win leading into the run. Punters weren’t keen to take silly odds about him though and he drifted right out to $2.05 at the jump. He was slowly away but mustered to sit within a few lengths of the lead. The leader Conchita kicked away and won running very good time (5.8L faster than average). Star Turn ran home well time wise recorded splits 2.6L faster than the average for his last 600m, but that wasn’t good enough to see him make headway on the winner and he wound up third beaten 2.3L.

A fortnight later he lined up in the 2yo handicap, the $150,000 Pierro Plate at Randwick over 1100m on a slow track. He was again a drifter in betting going from $2.10 to start $2.90, and again he was slowly away, it was like deja vu. In the small field he was able to muster quickly though and take the lead, as had been the failed intention on debut. He co-led with Chipanda the Godolphin filly on debut who was a $1.75 favourite, and they crawled along in front and set a speed to please themselves. Star Turn showed no great acceleration in the last 600m recording a split 2.1L slower than average, but he ‘slowed the slowest’ probably handling the ground better than the others. He easily won by 3L in the finish.

After a brief break he returned to the races in the colts/gelding Blue Diamond Prelude at Caulfield. He sat very handy to a hot speed getting cover right in behind the leaders. He eased around the leaders heels and hit the front just on straightening. He looked the winner at the 200m but was cut down on the post by an airborne Flying Artie right on the post. No shame in defeat here.

In the Blue Diamond he jumped well finally but drifted back to beyond mid-field out deep on the course. He was unable to slot in and cornered wide as well. The tough run took its toll inevitably though and he faded out to finish fifth, 7.2L off Extreme Choice. A decent run given he had not luck in running but you’d be hard pressed making a case for him to turn the tables on the Price pair here.

Has ability. Certainly not the worst here but I couldn’t see him breaking into the top four or five even if he does get favourable wet conditions which he appears to enjoy.

7. CAPITALIST
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $41

Boom colt who bolted in the Magic Millions and was a long-time favourite for this race before the bubble well and truly burst last time. Commenced his career on the opening day of the Sydney 2yo season last October is the listed 1000m Breeders' Plate at Randwick. He was sent out a dominant $1.65 favourite after winning two trial sin impressive fashion leading into the race. He jumped well and slotted in off the speed and travelled well in the run before Shinn eased him into clear running and quickly put paid to his rivals, streaking away to win by an ever-widening 4L. He appeared to do it with plenty up the sleeve. His overall winning time was 57.09, 7.3L faster than the 2yo average and that ties in well with Extreme Choice who won his debut over the same distance, same track and same conditions albeit on a seperate day. He ran 56.86 overall, so 0.23 seconds faster than Capitalist in winning.

After a nine-week break, he resumed in the Wyong Magic Millions and his win was reflective of his $1.28 starting price.The winning time for the 1100m affai r was very slow however with his last 600m sectional 4.6L slower than average and his overall time 7L slower than average. The 2nd horses overall time was a giant 10L below par. These substandard times accurately reflect the quality of the race, as it stands to fact that none of the eight horses behind Capitalist have won since running in this race, evermore none have even be able to place in subsequent races. The form is terrible out of this race!

It was then onto the $1.9 million Magic Millions 2yo Classic on the Gold Coast where he was a raging hot $1.40 favourite for the race, the shortest-price favourite in the 20+ year history of the event. He didn’t disappoint those who took the shorts though, as he strolled in for another easy victory, this one by a margin of 2.5L. Again though his winning time was pedestrian, rating 8.6L slower than the 2yo average. His last 600, 400 and 200m times ranked only third in the race and his 600m split was 5.4L slower than the 2yo average. Very few of the runners behind him have run since but of those who have none have won. Again the form is highly questionable.

He had a brief let up to freshen for the Golden Slipper which had always been in the back of Team Snowden’s mind for the classy colt. Again he trialled like a bomb in preparation for his next run in the Gr2 1200m Todman Stakes at Randwick where he was sent out a prohibitively short $1.20 quote. He jumped well and landed on the outside of Gai’s colt Kiss and Make Up who dictated the terms. The first 600m was run 2.7L slower than the average for the 2yo class, so neither leader spent any juice in the run. Upon straightening Kiss and Make Up kicked up a gear and immediately Capitalist was flat out chasing him. Whilst never shirking the task the further they went the further Kiss and Make Up got away. He was vetted post race and it was declared he was mildly lame by RNSW Stewards. Paul Snowden refuted the claim though saying he was with the colt straight after the race and again the next day and no such problem existed. His reasoning for the run was lack of fitness, although their have been lingering issues of muscle soreness in the colt since the run that keep persisting.

He’s a talented colt no doubt but he hasn’t beaten any top line horses in his three wins, in fact he’s beaten up on third and fourth graders. Outside his debut win his times have been only fair at best. That thrown in with lingering issues over his fitness and it makes it very hard to back him even though he did look like a million dollars early on. He’s drawn well but I can’t see him winning now after deep analysis of each of his runs, as he’s beaten nothing, hasn’t run good times and was thrashed by Kiss and Make Up fair and square last start, who I can’t possibly see him turning the tables on.

Have to respect the Snowden stable that they’ve still got him running here, so they must be very happy with him and he must be 100% ready and fit, but he would need to run a clear career best and probably need the main hopes to be below par.

Risking.

8. GOOD STANDING
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $101

Debuted in a 2yo handicap at Rosehill in November where he went around at the big odds of $19. He led and ran along at a pretty good clip, just outside the average for the first 600m. He was able to dictate term out in front and shot right away to seemingly have put the race too bed. He was 3L clear of his nearest rival and 4.6L clear of eventual winner Yankee Rose at the 200m mark, but got mown down in the last few strides. Good Standing didn’t stop and walk late, in fact his last 200m ranked third fastest in the race, with his last 600m run in 2.1L faster than average. The fact that he ran good times throughout and got mown down by a fily who was 4.6L off him at the furlong pays huge testament to the winner more so than it casts doubt over his effort. Post race, Rider Glyn Schofield explained that over the final 200m, under pressure, the colt was inclined to race greenly and shifted its ground. A post-race veterinary examination revealed an old laceration and also swelling to the offside of the hock.

He went out for a brief let up and trialled on two occasions before resuming in the Gr2 1200m Skyline Stakes at Randwick. He wasn’t big odd this time though starting a well backed $3.30 second favourite. From the inside barrier he landed in the box seat right in behind the tempo, which was slow (first 600m 5.2L slower than average). He bumped trying to get into clear galloping room and laid out under pressure in the straight but still put in a terrific finale to score an authoritative 0.8L victory. He was able to sprint home off a very slow tempo in 33.84 for his last 600m, 3.8L faster than average. That’s a very good effort considering just how slow they went. Of the seven horses he was up against in the event, three have started again and hve really shown the form out of the race to be high class.

He’s a class colt with plenty of upside no doubt. Has drawn around the centre of the line and looks likely to slot in around mid field or just better in the run. A genuine tempo should make sure he gets his chance in the straight and if can unleash a finishing burst similar to that in his last start and can win.

Each-way contender.

9. TELPERION
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $201

Beaten by Yankee Rose on debut and came back after a break to win the Listed Lonhro Plate.

Last start at Randwick in the G2 1200m Skyline Stakes he was again sent out a short priced $2.35 favourite. This time he was able to begin better but wasn’t rushed early as he settled off the speed in fifth 4L off the pace. He straightened up and came the widest of the eight-horse field and again raced greenly when put under pressure. This time however there was no dash and he battled away to the line for fourth, 3.4L off the winner Good Standing. Stewards launched an inquiry to the below par effort but connections and jockey were at a loss to explain the run, as was the vet who examined the horse and found nothing amiss. He just doesn’t quiet know what it’s all about yet and still does plenty wrong but he no doubt does has good ability, it will just take a bit of maturity for us to see him at his best.

The blinkers have been applied here and that could be vital to switching the horse on and making him concentrate on the task at hand. Don’t be surprised if he improves sharply here with the blinkers, but I don’t think he’s any more than a very rough place chance.

10. FRENCH FERN
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $13

Started her race career in a 2yo handicap at Rosehill and the punters who backed her from 80-1 to start 40-1 were cheering as she ran third and collected the big each way price. The race was very slow and has failed to produce any quality form.

She broke through second up in a Canterbury 2yo handicap at the Saturday metro meeting leading all the way. She pinched the race from the front getting away with murder in front with the first 600m run in a time a whopping 8.5L slower than average. This allowed her to kick off the corner and zip home in a quick time for the last 600m which made it impossible for anything to come from behind and beat her.

Got black type last run when winning the G2 Reisling Stakes at Randwick. There’s no knocking her for winning the race as she pocketed connections a cool $182,000, but it really was a midweek class field. The lead time was slow, the run home was slow and the overall time was very slow (6.4L slower than average). She was the best of a bad bunch. That doesn’t say much for the hopes of Honesty Prevails and Quick Feet who finished behind her here and also get a Slipper run. Outclassed.

11. SCARLET RAIN
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $51

Commenced career with an all of the way win in an 1100m 2yo handicap at Rosehill Gardens in early January. From the pole position Tommy Berry bounced her out and went straight to the front where he was allowed to dictate a slowly run race that suited him to perfection. She extended well in the straight and set up a big lead that was good enough to see her hold on despite Cudabeen flying home late. Scarlet Rain’s 600m sectional was 0.2L faster than average, a decent effort, but she was entitled to probably zip a bit quicker given the soft lead (first 600m 2.7L slower than average).

Went to Randwick for a 1000m 2yo set weights + penalties race on what was a heavy track. She sprung out of the gates to lead comfortably. But as opposed to her debut run there was no loafing in front today as she ran the first 600m a lightning fast 6.3L faster than the par. She tired a bit in the straight as could be expected after her lead time, but was still far to good and saw it out to win by 1.8L in fast overall time (5.5L faster than average).

She stepped up to G2 grade in the 1200m Sweet Embrace Stakes at Randwick next. Many doubted her running a strong 1200, but again she jumped out like a rocket to lead easily. She got away with a cheap lead in a time that rated 3.7L faster than average. So it was little wonder she was again able to see it out and win by a length. Questions of her running a strong 1200m were mostly dispelled as her closing 200m split of 11.96 was fourth fastest in the race. Any why I say only ‘mostly’ dispelled is because she enjoyed a soft, soft lead and was probably entitled to zip home a bit faster, especially if she was the be competitive in a Golden Slipper because she’ll have to burn rubber to lead this from the bad gate.

Hard to knock winners but the form shows she hasn’t raced a single horse that she competes against today in her previous 3 wins. That suggest Gai has placed her very well, avoiding the best horses to pick up a G2 win. You can never 100% dismiss a Gai Waterhouse Golden Slipper runner but I’ll 99% dismiss her as a winning hope.

She’ll be up on speed but will have to work hard to get across from the bad draw. Good filly but this looks a bit beyond her on what we’ve seen to date.

12. CALLIOPE
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $81

She was an early running two year old, taking little time to prove she was high quality. After winning her first and only trial by 4L in devastating fashion she went to the Gimcrack Stakes, the annual opening Sydney 2yo fillies race on Epsom Day, Randwick in early October. Starting odds on, her backers would have been sick after she bungled the start and went back to a clear last, before mustering to settle with only a few behind her. She over raced in the run and had to switch wide after running into heels. However once she straightened she sprinted very quickly and put the result beyond doubt in a very impressive display. Only the good one’s win after having so much go wrong.

After a four month spell she was switched to Melbourne to run in the G2 Blue Diamond Prelude for fillies. Again she struck trouble at the start when she was badly bumped by one who shifted out sideways into her. Then on the turn she had to be restrained to avoid clipping heels with eventual winner Samara Dancer. This cost her any momentum, but she still picked up well and got within 2.5L on the winner. It was again a very solid showing just without any luck.

She came back to Sydney and was scratched at the gates a fortnight ago before running in the Magic Night Stakes last week and winning to book a ticket into the Slipper. She was heavily backed and had no troubles holding off a fast finishing Omnei Sword.

She’s a talented filly who still does plenty wrong and will no doubt improve even further in time. Can put on a bold showing here but I doubt she can win. Place at best.

13. YANKEE ROSE
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $201

Debuted in an 1100m 2yo handicap at Rosehill late October last year and sat midfield before unleashing an impressive sprint to get over the top and win. She ran the fastest 600, 400 and 200m splits running home and her 600m time was a very impressive 4.6L faster than the class bench mark figure. That’s a very decent effort on debut.

Second start in a race was over the same track and trip was as impressive as her winning debut. Same track, same distance and same result. She ran home her last 600m in a time (33.72) a devastating 6.6L faster than the 2yo class average. That’s very, very good and it proves genuine quality when they can do something like that, so don’t underestimate the win.

Whilst the form out of her first ran could be questioned by pundits as not being good enough for top grade, the form out of her second run couldn’t be questioned at all. Good Standing was the runner-up to Yankee Rose at her second start. Good Standing was on debut that day but after being immediately spelled he resumed with a dominant win in the G2 Skyline Stakes at Randwick a field that included last week’s Pago Pago winner Souchez and Telperion who runs here. I digress, all that demonstrates in how good Yankee Rose’s second win was!!! Yankee Rose is $41 here, Good Standing is $16.

She’s had two trials to get her ready to run fresh and has come up with an ideal gate in the form 3. Zac Purton jets in from Hong Kong to take the ride and as he has proven in winning races like the Caulfield Cup and riding the favourite in the Melbourne Cup, he doesn’t come back to Australia very often and when he does it’s only for good horses who are genuine chances…He’s not after an appearance fee.

The blinkers have also been applied for the first time and many a 2 year old has exploded for the first time when the shades go on! She’s 100% under the radar this filly.

Many may laugh when I say this, but she can win and I’ll be definitely be having the 40-1 each way as it’s such huge value! I think she should be the 15-1 quote Good Standing who she beat magnificently is.

14. SWEET SHERRY
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $201

Scored a debut win in the listed Maribyrnong Trial Stakes at Flemington which is Melbourne’s annual kick off race for the 2 year olds. That form simply hasn’t produced though, with none of the horses including Sweet Sherry winning a race since. Tenth beaten 4.5L in the Inglis Banner at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day went a fancied $7 hope. Was spelled following the poor run.

Resuming was 3.5L sixth in the Blue Diamond Prelude for fillies at Caulfield before running sixth again, this time 6.7L off winner Extreme Choice in the Blue Diamond itself. The latter was a different effort in a hot race but she was in a different post code to this race winner. She’ll find the going very tough here.

15. HONESTY PREVAILS
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $101

Impressive winning two trials at Randwick in the lead up to her race day debut. Kicked off straight into G3 grade in the Widden Stakes at Rosehill. She settled down just of the speed and enjoyed a good run in transit before dashing quickly and really asserting her dominance, living up to the promise she’d shown in her trial wins. She ended up winning by 2.5L but the race has proven to be weak form wise, with the horses behind her failing to flatter in subsequent runs. The race was however run on a slow track so if those conditions prevail here we know she’ll be right at home.

Stepped up to G2 grade at Rosehill in the Reisling Stakes over 1200m and was sent out a $2.40 favourite to make it two from two. She got a lovely run on the fence and didn’t spend an ounce of petrol in the run. When asked to dash in the straight however she failed to find that next gear she’d shown on debut and only whacked away to the line to finish 4th of the 6 runners beaten 1.7L. Stewards queried the poor run of the filly and a post race vet examination revealed that the filly was suffering from a poor post race recovery rate. That explains her below par effort, but even so she was well beaten by a horse that starts 300-1 here so it sums up the quality of that race.

Could run well at a big price if you go off her debut win and forget her performance last start when she did have an excuse. Can’t see her figuring in the placing but she could be top 6 with luck.

16. QUICK FEET
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $61

Trialled well before stepping out on debut and winning a Warwick Farm 2yo maiden. The form out of that win has been average at best. Then went for a 9 week spell before again trialling very well in preparation for a tilt at the feature Melbourne 2yo races.

Resumed in the 1100m G2 fillies Blue Diamond Prelude at Caulfield. Got a gun run sitting in the box seat the whole way but once straightening he failed to produce any zip and only battled to end up seventh beaten 4L. Sixth in that same race was Sweet Sherry and fifth was Calliope, both of which run here in the Slipper. All in all it was an average effort.

Returned to Sydney after Melbourne failure for the Gr2 Reisling Stakes and dfinitely enjoyed being back in his home town. He jumped awkwardly but soon recovered, but still settled down last in the small field of six. Hooked to the outside in the straight and she ran on well picking up all bar the winner of the race French Fern who runs here and is a 300-1 shot. Notably this fillies division race of the 2yo’s was run 6.5L slower than the boys over the same distance, the same day.

Pretty handy type of a filly but she’s out of her depth in the Slipper and connections would be thrilled if she cracks the top 10.

17. MOQUEEN
“SUPER COMPUTER” ASSESSED PRICE: $61

Debuted with a solid fourth in a 2yo Rosehill maiden behind Omnei Sword who was terrific last week in G2 grade. Settled back last in the 1100m event but ran on very well in the straight to get within 0.6L of the winner.

Jumped straight to G2 grade in the 1200m Reisling Stakes at Randwick. Went around an unfavoured 25-1 chance but put in a very respectable effort and managed to get the black type by running third. He settled midfield and found the line well, getting going well late on in the piece.

Needs a scratching to gain a run. Whilst she’s not a winning chance in this definitely worth keeping an eye out for him if he goes around in the Sires or Champagne later in the Autumn as it looms as though the 1400/1600 will be much better suited than the 1200.

TIPS
1.EXTREME CHOICE
13.YANKEE ROSE
4.KISS AND MAKE UP
2.FLYING ARTIE
8.GOOD STANDING

I just can’t ignore the times and margins Extreme Choice has put up at his three wins to date, they’re nothing short of superstar material. He goes on top and is the one I’m very keen to back. Have taken the $3.50 on offer with the rating for him being $3.30, so that suggests the price on offer is good. If bookies want to gamble with him I’ll happily go again as the price winds out.

Yankee Rose is the forgotten horse. It’s a case of out of sight, out of mind. Her two wins to date though have been explosive and her sectional times are of a G1 standard. Knock out hope for sure if she unleashes the sprint that saw her run down Good Standing.

Kiss and Make Up has the Gai polish and that’s worth a mint. Having third start in first prep so it’s reasonable to assume he’ll have come on even more since his last win and if that’s the case he’s right in the mix.

Flying Artie can’t be ignored we all saw his Blue Diamond run.

Good Standing probably wants it a touch further but with a hot tempo will be steaming home and could be the winner.

SUGGESTED BETS
#1 EXTREME CHOICE THE WIN @ $3.50
#13 YANKEE ROSE EACH WAY @ $41 / $11

Trifecta Box my top five.

It’ll cost a bit but if the better priced horses like Good Standing and especially 40-1 shot Yankee Rose can run into the placings or even win the dividend with big pools on offer is sure to be healthy.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…