tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-68042983977472245052024-03-15T09:26:25.878+00:00Sport is made for bettingA blog about betting, trading, sport and some of the dodgy elements within them.
www.sportismadeforbetting.com.
Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.comBlogger2187125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-16181101534679715452024-03-15T01:14:00.007+00:002024-03-15T09:25:52.595+00:00Cheltenham Day 4 preview<p>Well done if you've lasted this long. A couple of decent results yesterday could have been a lot better if I was simply boxing my selections in trifectas. The tide might be turning... Anyhow onto the preview!</p><p><br /></p><p><b>TRIUMPH HURDLE</b></p><p><i>Bunting</i> - one of the seven runners for Willie Mullins. Won a maiden then ran fourth in a Mullins 1-2-3-4 in the Dublin Racing Festival G1 Juvenile Hurdle, which was where he ranked from the stable (and all of those run here). Can't see any reason to promote him.</p><p><i>Ethical Diamond</i> - was further behind the aforementioned quartet at Leopardstown and 50/1 that day. It's only "trained by W.Mullins" preventing him from being that price here.</p><p><i>Highwind</i> - beat Boodles winner Lark In the Mornin in January, but blotted his copybook in the G1 Juvenile Hurdle, running eighth and last of the six Mullins runners, with a few mistakes thrown in. Not reliable enough to put any faith in.</p><p><i>Ithacas Arrow</i> - 33L behind Sir Gino at Kempton over Xmas, won a C3 hurdle at Newbury recently but a long way short of these.</p><p><i>Majborough</i> - sat up on the pace and ran third in that G1 at Leopardstown. Might improve with cover and that was only his second start, first for 10 months. In the mix.</p><p><i>Mighty Bandit</i> - also beat Lark In The Mornin (by 9.5L) but then flopped in the G2 Dublin Juvenile at Xmas. Immediately sent off for a wind op and then was sold in the Caldwell dispersal sale. Moving from Gordon Elliott to Warren Greatrex wouldn't be regarded as a positive but Gordon was keen to keep him in the stable, just got outbid. Looked good on debut, don't rule him out.</p><p><i>Nurburgring</i> - interesting type, ran twice early in the season as an entire for a first and a second, then sent off for the snip, and moved up to Graded company. Beat Kala Conti on debut then lost to her in the Xmas G2 after a 7lb weight turnaround. Was a nose behind Kargese on that day, on the same weight terms as here. Stable in great form winning the Boodles, the other juvenile race of the week. Must go close.</p><p><i>Peking Opera</i> - ran fourth in the Irish Derby last year, easily the best of these on the Flat, but yet to show it over hurdles. Won his hurdles debut with a moderate rating, then fell at the last when tiring at Kempton last month.</p><p><i>Salvator Mundi</i> - hasn't run for nearly a year, makes his debut for Mullins after being purchased out of France. One run, beaten 1.75L into second behind Sir Gino who would have started first or second favourite here. But that was April last year - has he progressed? There was money for him early in the week. Very interesting runner, watch the betting. On jockey bookings, he seems down the list.</p><p><i>Salver</i> - undefeated for Gary Moore but not recording the figures required to match it with the Irish. Happy in the mud but don't think he's up to these.</p><p><i>Storm Heart</i> - Mullins runner with the lead jockey for the stable (note Majborough is to be ridden by the owner's retained rider), despite being beaten by Kargese last time. Bolted in on hurdles debut at Punchestown, then was beaten narrowly in the G1 Spring Juvenile which often supplies this winner). No doubt has more to come but marking him this short has to come from the appointment of Townend and whatever has been happening at Closutton.</p><p><i>Fratas</i> - beat the handy Eagle Fang on debut, fighting back when challenged and unseen since. I doubt that's enough but there's some talent in there.</p><p><i>Kargese</i> - went 1-2-1 in France before being sold to Kenny Alexander (owner of Honeysuckle) and into the Mullins stable. Kept with the first/second trend by a narrow loss to Kala Conti then beating her and all the other Irish contenders in the G1 Spring Juvenile. Highly talented, why isn't she favourite?</p><p><i>Kargese, Nurburgring, Majborough, Mighty Bandit</i></p><p>================</p><p><b>COUNTY HURDLE</b></p><p>Probably the best handicap of the week and worth a detailed look.</p><p><i>Pied Piper</i> - rated 11lbs higher than any of his rivals and nearly two stone above the bottomweight, but also takes 3lbs off for the claimer. Had a recent change of ownership after the Caldwell dispersal sale, changing hands for €570k, a hell of a lot for a 6yo hurdler! Ran second in this last year, beaten a head by 33/1 Falvoir off 2lbs less (154). Since then, he's run twice on the Flat (including a second in the Cesarewitch), and last twice behind Champion Hurdle winner State Man. This is a better level for him, but there's little scope for anything to go wrong with this impost.</p><p><i>Zenta</i> - ran third to Lossiemouth in the Triumph last year and then won the equivalent G1 at Aintree. Oddly went straight to novice chasing, performed below stable expectations and reverted to hurdles. Ran third conceding 18lbs to the winner in the Listed Handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival - that form will put her in good stead for this. </p><p><i>Magical Zoe</i> - finished a nose ahead of Zenta last time out, on the same weight terms. Pushed Irish Point to go down under 2L in a G3 at Down Royal, and ran second in the Mares' Novice here last year. Goes close.</p><p><i>Encanto Bruno</i> - looks like a dry tracker. Won at his first run for Gavin Cromwell here in October (good) but beaten 20L+ in two runs since. This pattern flows throughout his career. Unless there's a sudden heatwave, ignore.</p><p><i>Hansard</i> - going OK this season, second in the G2 Elite Hurdle at Winvanton, winning the G3 Gerry Feilden at Newbury ahead of Bad, before a fourth in a Premier Handicap at Ascot behind Luccia. Has won on soft, don't rule out.</p><p><i>King of Kingsfield</i> - his recent form looks more impressive by the day this week. He was beaten by Supreme winner Slade Steel in his maiden, by Ballyburn & Slade Steel in the G1 Novice Hurdle at the DRF, and in between went close in the G1 Royal Bond behind Farren Glory, a horse who was second favourite in that DRF G1 but bled from both nostrils and failed. There doesn't look to be much room in his mark (official rating vs RPR) but it's also hard to rule out quite a bit more improvement. Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy finally got a winner for the week with Teahupoo. In with a serious chance. </p><p><i>Westport Cove</i> - looks a bit out of his depth here, beaten 12L by Tullyhill in a Listed Punchestown Novice hurdle last time. His only success from four has been his maiden at Thurles. Can't see it.</p><p><i>Bialystok</i> - finished 1.5L behind King of Kingsfield in the Royal Bond, then was high in the betting and travelling well went brought down, through no fault of his own, two hurdles out in the Listed Handicap hurdle at the DRF (against Zenta and Magical Zoe). Never far away, right in this.</p><p><i>Absurde</i> - highly effective dual-code horse, winning the Ebor last season and running well in the Melbourne Cup until fading in the final furlong. Last time out he finished fourth in the DRF G1 Novice, 3.25L behind third-placed King of Kingsfield and the two Festival Novice winners well ahead. Pulled up in the Xmas G1 on heavy going, wouldn't want the ground to get any worse.</p><p><i>Risk Belle</i> - ran a close third in the Boodles last season, and has made steady progression since, rising another 9lbs in five further runs. She's been favourite in successive mares' races and disappointed in each. I don't think this mark does her any favours, prefer Zenta of the McManus runners.</p><p><i>Aucunrisque</i> - ran 18th in this race last year, coming in off form of 11221. This year he comes in off third, fifth, PU, 17th. Nope.</p><p><i>Gin Coco</i> - ran 15th in this race last year, but beat that winner, Falvoir, with a first-time tongue tie in November. The effect of the gear change didn't last long though, he was beaten a long way at Doncaster in December, although it was a bit of a farce, they only ended up jumping four hurdles due to a low sun. Soft track figures not good.</p><p><i>Petit Tonnerre</i> - drops back to hurdles for the first time since this race last season (seventh, beaten 6.25L at 33/1). Hasn't been going that well over fences, perhaps the smaller obstacles and a first-time visor will spark something?</p><p><i>Faivoir</i> - last year's winner and was just beaten a nose in the Imperial Cup last weekend. The Skelton stable is flying, especially in handicaps, so you'd be mad to leave him out even if the race record for 9yos is weak. </p><p><i>L'Eau Du Sud</i> - another Skelton runner, he went up 6lbs for finishing second to Iberico Lord in the Betfair Hurdle. While that horse didn't go so well in the Champion Hurdle this week, the third horse Go Dante won the Imperial Cup last weekend. Was reported to have had ulcers during the summer and took a long time to recover but that run at Newbury showed he is ready. The form has depth. Likely favourite.</p><p><i>So Scottish</i> - another McManus runner. Feels like he has been around forever but is only a 7yo. Another mixing hurdles and fences, he ran seventh in the Magners Plate Chase here last season, but most recently ran fourth in that DRF Listed Handicap in February, not far behind Magical Zoe and Zenta. He was equal favourite that day. Watch the betting.</p><p><i>Parramount</i> - has been declared on Friday for this race over hurdles and a Flat race at Wolverhampton. They're not serious...</p><p><i>Samui</i> - won a Listed Hurdle at Listowel back in September, then flopped in a G3 Novice at Tipperary. Unless they've found something to explain that and remedied the issue, I can't see him being competitive.</p><p><i>Mr Freedom</i> - awful name for a horse, sounds like he should the poster boy for a right-wing anti-woke political campaign. Ran OK this ime last year with a third in the Boodles and fourth in an Ascot handicap, but has hardly progressed in rating since despite running well in lower grades. </p><p><i>By Your Side</i> - 1-17 over hurdles, can safely ignore this one despite running seventh in the same Irish handicap as Magical Zoe and others (beaten 18L, more than 10 behind So Scottish in fourth).</p><p><i>Afadil</i> - won the Scottish County Hurdle in February, gets a 5lb claim for the handy Freddie Gingell, and Paul Nicholls had a winner on Thursday. Might run into a place at odds.</p><p><i>Media Naranja</i> - hasn't finished within 11L of the winner in her last five starts and is 4lbs out of the handicap (if there wasn't a designated bottom weight of this race, she would carry 4lbs less than given). Nope.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Two angles to look at here - the Skeltons are on fire and that Listed Handicap at Leopardstown in February. Eight of the past nine editions of this race have been won by Mullins or Skelton, we might as well stick to them as they hold the best cards.</p><p><i>L'Eau Du Sud, Bialystok, Zenta, King of Kingsfield, Afadil. </i></p><p>===================</p><p><b>ALBERT BARTLETT</b></p><p><i>Butcher Hollow</i> - yet to win over hurdles, having been placed in three maidens by three horses who oddly all disappointed this week - Jigoro, Jade de Grugy and Cleatus Poolaw. A long way short on ratings, the step up in distance can't solve that gap.</p><p><i>Captain Teague</i> - third in the Bumper last Festival, with wins in a G1(Challow Hurdle) and G2 this season, bookending a second in a G2 at Cheltenham when he didn't get up the hill carrying a penalty. Paul Nicholls said after the Challow he wasn't afraid of trying three miles, but two and a half in the Gallagher on testing ground would be ideal. Let's see how deep it is by 2.50.</p><p><i>Chigorin</i> - broke his maiden status at Fairyhouse, quickening nicely in the latter stages after parking behind the pace in a 2m7f contest. Would be no surprise to see the same tactics go close here but it would need a huge jump in ratings to do so. de Bromhead and Blackmore are the ones capable of doing it if anyone can.</p><p><i>Dancing City</i> - showed his Flat speed with a second behind Ballyburn last April, then after muffing his first hurdles run in November, he has improved sharply, winning a Navan maiden easily followed by the G1 Novice at the Dublin Racing Festival, at 16/1, ahead of three more fancied stablemates. That's the highest rating form of any in this field - can he back it up?</p><p><i>Dripsey Moon</i> - finished 10L behind the two Gigginstown entrants in a Limerick G2 Novice. Will start triple figures and rightly so.</p><p><i>Gidleigh Park</i> - unbeaten in four runs (three hurdles and a bumper), looking as good as any from Britain. After a sharp step up between his first and second hurdles runs, he plateaued, recording the same RPR at his third. However that race, the Classic Novices at Cheltenham, where he beat Lucky Place (fourth in the Coral Cup) by a half-length, was a dawdling affair until a mad sprint home, which doesn't maximise Racing Post Ratings. Could take another step forward and be right in this.</p><p><i>High Class Hero</i> - a winner of five from five under Rules, three of these have been in small novice races. In one of those he beat The Big Doyen who finished just behind Captain Teague at his next start. Townend has switched off him to the favourite.</p><p><i>Johnny Who</i> - was undefeated in points, a bumper and a maiden hurdle before meeting Captain Teague in the Challow in late December. Battled on well that day, making a late charge to finish only two lengths back in fourth. Followed that up with another fourth in the Classic Novices' at Cheltenham at the end of Jan - the dawdling race which turned into a sprint home. A true staying test over a longer trip might be what he needs.</p><p><i>Lecky Watson</i> - fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, won his maiden back in November making numerous mistakes but improved sharply at his next two runs, getting within a half-length of Slade Steel in a G2 at Navan, followed by a third in the Lawlor's at Naas. He's still not a fluent jumper, probably needs to fix that to win a race like this. </p><p><i>Readin Tommy Wrong</i> - a winner of all four starts under Rules, most recently in the G1 Lawlor's at Naas by a neck, ahead of Ile Atlantique, Lecky Watson and Firefox, each of which has been popular in the betting this week. Readin Tommy Wrong was 16/1 though on that occasion, now he's favourite and curiously has been switched from the owners' retained rider Daryl Jacob over to the Mullins no.1, Paul Townend. </p><p><i>Search For Glory</i> - a second-year novice, he's running in this race again after being pulled up behind Stay Away Fay last year, starting 33/1. Has picked a couple of small field G3s this season, both over three miles, but against nothing worthy of contesting this. Unlikely. </p><p><i>Spread Boss Ted</i> - won a maiden at Navan followed by a weak Novice at Fairyhouse. Short on performance ratings and looks to have the last-choice jockey aboard.</p><p><i>Stellar Story</i> - Gigginstown runner who has been thereabouts most of the season, starting well with a win in a Navan maiden but upped to G2 and G1s, he keeps bumping into better ones like Slade Steel and most recently Dancing City. Stable second pick.</p><p><i>The Jukebox Man</i> - same connections as Shakem Up'Arry which was heavily punted before winning on Thursday. Strong form - beat Cleatus Poolaw in a PTP over three miles, then purchased for €70k for Harry Redknapp. Was second to Gidleigh Park on rules debut, then went on a run of three wins in a row, all at Ffos Las, across bumpers and hurdles, then ran third (beaten 1.75L) in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle behind Captain Teague. Three miles should suit and he loves deep going if the rain continues. Worth a look at around 20s.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Curiously, both Reading Tommy Wrong and Dancing City won Grade 1s last time at 16/1 suggesting their recent improvement wasn't entirely expected. I might be mad but I favour taking on the Mullins camp here with a few decent rivals.</p><p><i>Gidleigh Park, The Jukebox Man, Chigorin, Captain Teague</i></p><p>================</p><p><b>GOLD CUP</b></p><p>This is the 100th edition of the Gold Cup and this year looks particularly strong.</p><p><i>Bravemansgame</i> - since winning the King George of 2022, he has run seconds four times and third once, never too far away but never quite good enough. In last year's Gold Cup, he was level with Galopin des Champs going over the last fence, but then didn't get up the hill as the favourite who powered away. And that's a similar pattern to his other recent runs. Good place bet, but just doesn't seem to have the killer instinct to finish the last opponent off.</p><p><i>Corach Rambler</i> - won the Ultima the previous two seasons and last year's Grand National, all in the spring when he tends to perform better. Only two other horses have won the Gold Cup and the GN - Golden Miller and L'Escargot, and both of them won the Cup at least twice! Expect him to produce a career-best here, but I still don't think that'll be good enough unless the top end of the market underperform.</p><p><i>Fastorslow</i> - second in last year's National, he then beat Galopin Des Champs in the Punchestown Gold Cup (SP 20/1). This season he has claimed the G1 John Durkan (GDC in 3rd) and ran second in the Irish Gold Cup (behind GDC) before heading swiftly off for wind surgery. He's rated as the main challenger to the favourite but if they both run to their best, I don't see him getting any closer that Bravemansgame last year.</p><p><i>Galopin Des Champs</i> - the benchmark at this level, he peaks for the big races, winning this race last season and the G1 Savills Chase with RPRs significantly above anyone else in the field. The two times he has been overcome by Fastorslow, they have been smaller fields, more tactical affairs, and not the seasonal target. A bigger field creates a truer contest and we should see the real Galopin Des Champs here.</p><p><i>Gentlemansgame</i> - Since switching to fences, he has beaten I Am Maximus, the future Irish National and Drinmore Chase winner, Envoi Allen (but behind Easy Game) in a G2 at Gowran Park, and then beat Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall back in November in a career peak, been kept fresh ever since. Place chance at least, Mouse Morris has been successful in the Gold Cup before.</p><p><i>Gerri Colombe</i> - deemed to be this year's challenger after a fine novice season and a win in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in November, but needed binoculars to see GDC at the finish line of the Savills Chase at Xmas, trailing 23L behind in second when he started 7/4 vs the winner's 6/4 SP. Has has 10 weeks off, needs to bounce back with a vengeance to beat the favourite.</p><p><i>Jungle Boogie</i> - unbeaten in just five starts, apart from a defeat to El Fabiolo in December. He switched from just over two miles to almost three in the New Year's Day Chase at Tramore. That's a long way from the level needed to win this.</p><p><i>L'Homme Presse</i> - a winner of seven of his 10 runs over fences, his reputation took a bit of a hit when he trailed in Pic D'Orhy in the Ascot Chase three weeks ago, but that's the one track where that horse is significantly better. He beat Protektorat to win the G2 Fleur Du Lys at Lingfield, a year after unseating in the King George at Kempton, after going off favourite. His best ratings, from Nov/Dec 2022, aren't far off winning this - it's not that much of a leap to suggest he can improve on that again.</p><p><i>Monkfish</i> - a Festival winner in 2020 and 2021 but since then has had no luck with injury, running only three times since. In late January, he won the Galmoy at Gowran Park with a decent RPR, not unreasonable to think he will bounce from that and put up a solid fight here. </p><p><i>Nassalam</i> - has the rain dance going from his connections. Loves deep ground (winner of the Welsh National on it by 34L) and might be competitive should that be the case. Just soft or any better will leave him quite a way short of the requried level.</p><p><i>The Real Whacker</i> - won three in a row at Cheltenham last season, topped off by beating Gerri Colombe by a short head in the Brown Advisory, but hasn't been able to improve on that in three runs since. He pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November meeting, was beaten 10L into fourth in the King George on Boxing Day and most recently finished just under 3L behind Capodanno in the Cotswold Chase in late Jan. Plenty to find to be in front when it counts.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Galopin Des Champs has the chance to become an all-time great, this win would put him on the path to that level. I just don't see them catching him if he runs to near his best. He was just so impressive last season. Behind him, it's very competitive and could come down to any of many.</p><p><i>Galopin Des Champs, Gentlemansgame, L'Homme Presse, Bravemansgame </i></p><p>================</p><p><b>ST JAMES'S PLACE CHALLENGE CUP</b></p><p>A hunters' chase, leave me out.</p><p>================</p><p><b>MARES' CHASE</b></p><p>Just a handful of chances here with a lot of dross in behind.</p><p><i>Dinoblue</i> is the obvious one. She's had nine starts over fences, winning five and being runner-up the other four. And two of these defeats have been at the Festival, in the Mares' Novice two years ago (ninth) and then last year in the Grand Annual after a mistake at the last. Can she be trusted here? She probably wins but I couldn't be taking her at evens or 5/4 range.</p><p><i>Allegorie De Vassy</i> - ran second in the Mares' Chase last year in what was effectively a two-horse race. She's good enough to win this, but like the favourite, she's also flawed enough to make a mess of it when looking like she had the race in her hands. </p><p><i>Limerick Lace</i> is the second of JP McManus's runners. She has taken a massive step forward this season, thumping the useful Heia by 16L resuming in October, running second to Coko Beach in the Troytown followed by a facile win in the Doncaster Silver Vase for Mares over Xmas. That puts her right in this if there's the slightest blemish from the pair mentioned above. </p><p><i>Riviere D'Etel</i> has always shown plenty of promise but since gonig chasing, has won just four of 15. This season she has won and been runner-up to Allegorie De Vassy, and run second to Champion Chase winner Captain Guinness. I'd rather take her each-way at around 14s than a shorter price on flawed jumping.</p><p><i>Riviere D'Etel, Dinoblue, Limerick Lace</i></p><p>===============</p><p><b>THE MARTIN PIPE</b></p><p>I just don't have much interest in races for amateur or conditional jockeys. Quai de Bourbon and Waterford Whispers are the two chances being most talked about. It's a handicap so default to the McManus runner.</p><p><i>Waterford Whispers, Quai De Bourbon, Answer To Kayf</i></p><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-72379919867490791462024-03-14T08:06:00.002+00:002024-03-14T08:06:11.293+00:00Cheltenham Thursday preview<p> <b>CHELTENHAM THURSDAY</b></p><p>Interesting card today as they switch to the New course. A few races I quite like, and others I'll be happy to skip right over...</p><p><b>TURNERS NOVICES</b></p><p><i>Colonel Harry</i> - had been running OK in small-field novice chases until last time at Sandown, finishing 29L behind the winner in the G1 Scilly Isles, in a race where the odds-on fav was ever in it. Perhaps the unseasonal good ground caught him out? Loves the wet.</p><p><i>Djelo</i> - second in the Scilly Isles, achieving a career best in the process. Did well to get within 7L after the tearaway leader simply didn't come back to the field and the other jockeys banked on the odds-on fav carting them back into it (he didn't). Has had a progressive novice chasing campaign, winning three, then getting taken out at the first fence in a G2 at Lingfield. Could yet be more to come.</p><p><i>Facile Vega</i> - obvious favourite simply because he has started fav every start except his last one. The hype has been on this one right from the start due to his excpetional breeding, but over fences he is only one win from three. Each race comment says 'not fluent' so I wouldn't be rushing to back him. At the Leopardstown Xmas Festival and the Dublin Racing Festival, he has beaten in G1s, behind the classy Found A Fifty and Il Etait Temps. Connections have sent him to the 2m4f option rather than the Arkle, hoping a gentler pace might sort out his jumping. I'm a layer at 2/1.</p><p><i>Ginny's Destiny</i> - this is a chasing profile I want to follow. An 8yo who only started racing two years ago, he was a handy hurdler winning one from four for Tom Lacey, then switched to chasing when moved to Paul Nicholls and after a slow start on a dry track (doesn't seem to like it, not his only failure on it), he's won his three starts since, beating Es Perfecto, Grey Dawning and Theatre Man respectively. Should be favourite.</p><p><i>Grey Dawning</i> - bolted in over 3m at Warwick in a G2 Novice Chase two months ago, and comes in fairly fresh. Pre Xmas, he was quite busy, racing three times in five weeks, third to Stay Away Fay at Exeter, beating Gaillard Du Mesnil and Apple Away at Haydock and then trailing Ginny's Destiny at Cheltenham on the new course. Curious fact - he beat Apple Away by the same margin (14L) at Haydock and Warwick, but his rating has shot up 16lbs for it while the vanquished has stayed stagnant. The Skelton stable is on fire winning two handicaps on Wednesday (with horses who were in 'terrible' form leading in), so expect this one to be finely tuned. His jumping last time was slightly concerning at the end (also mistake at penultimate fence at two runs back), I've got my concerns under pressure...</p><p><i>Iroko</i> - won the Martin Pipe here last year and since switching to fences, has a perfect one-for-one record. Lightly raced, very talented. Never be surprised what comes from a horse in these colours.</p><p><i>Le Patron</i> - beaten a long way in the G1 Scilly Isles, that was a big drop in performance compared to previous runs (won previous three), take on trust.</p><p><i>Letsbeclearaboutit</i> - won his first two chase starts but then tapered off with three successive thirds at a range of trips. Cromwell runner, don't be shocked if he puts in a better run but the stable is yet to fire this week. A 9yo winning a novice chase is pretty rare though.</p><p><i>Sharjah</i> - if 9yos winning a novice chase are rare, 11yos winning them are simply non-existent. Good honest horse who was a star hurdler, will run a nice race into midfield, possibly even a place.</p><p><i>Zanahiyr</i> - new to chasing after running several minor places in G1 races over hurdles. Was beaten 17L by Fact To File (Gallagher winner Wednesday) on chase debut, thne progressed to beat the once very useful Aspire Tower next time at Thurles. Honest but this will stretch him, needs a fair step up to compete. </p><p><i>Jamaico</i> - British debut after being bought out of France. Looks a long way short of this unless there's been some miracle at home...</p><p>Very keen on Ginny's Destiny here.</p><p><i>Ginny's Destiny, Djelo, Iroko, Grey Dawning.</i></p><p>===================</p><p><b>PERTEMPS FINAL</b></p><p>Big handicap hurdle over three miles - another tough one.</p><p><i>Cleatus Poolaw</i> is a lightly-raced 6yo who has finished no worse than second in five races this season. He was 25L behind Ballyburn when the Gallagher winner claimed his maiden (he won by 13L on Wednesday), and can continue his improvement here. In case you're wondering where the name comes from - he's named after the United States' most decorated Native American with three Purple Crosses, amongst numerous other medals.</p><p><i>Springwell Boy</i> has had a good season carrying big weights in these type of races, apart from a blemish on New Year's Day when he was in touch at the last but misjudged the last hurdle - probably after the horse directly in front of him clattered it then it rebounded up. His handicap mark has been kept in check while running nicely, horses up in the weights have a good record in this.</p><p><i>Gaoth Chuil</i> for Ted Walsh looks like a bit of a plot, being close numerous times this season but only winning one of his four starts, doing enough to guarantee a run without blowing his mark. Won't be far off.</p><p><i>Cleatus Poolaw, Springwell Boy, Gaoth Chuil, Judicial Law</i></p><p>===============</p><p><b>RYANAIR CHASE</b></p><p>A case can be made for all of these, I won't go through in detail.</p><p><i>Envoi Allen</i> won this last year, and having also won twice mre during the Festival, has to go on top, despite his age (10). Stable and jockey are in fine form and going in fresh suits him.</p><p><i>Stage Star</i> won the Turners here last year, one of several wins at the track, but also pulled up here on New Year's Day. Might have been a big Dec 31 down in Ditcheat! Taking him on trust, partly at least because I have a share in another Owners Group horse.</p><p><i>Fil Dor</i> might be a decent each-way price, he ran a relatively close second to El Fabiolo in December in a G2, that form would see him in the mix here.</p><p><i>Envoi Allen, Stage Star, Fil Dor.</i></p><p>=================</p><p><b>PADDY POWER STAYERS</b></p><p>Tricky field with several that are supposedly too old, or never quite good enough, or seemingly overrated. Sire Du Berlais last season was the first winner aged 10 or older since 1986 (one from 65).</p><p>I can't be backing <i>Paisley Par</i>k or <i>Sire Du Berlais</i> despite obvious chances and previous success here, <i>Noble Yeats</i> over hurdles rather than fences shows his adaptability - he received 6lbs from Paisley Park last time and just beat him. Can never be surprised at what Emmet Mullins achieves. <i>Teahupoo</i> just seems very short. Outstayed Impaire Et Passe in the Hatton's Grace in early December. Not seen since but I can't get involved at around 7/4.</p><p><i>Dashel Drasher</i> ran second last year on soft ground, and it will be at least as bad today with a chance of rain starting around lunchtime. His ratings this term are a bit south of what should be needed to win, but his last run recorded exactly the same RPR as his run before last year's Stayers Hurdle. At 25/1, I'd rather be on him than any at the top of the market despite being an 11yo.</p><p><i>Dashel Drasher, Noble Yeats, Crambo</i></p><p>=================</p><p><b>TRUSTATRADER PLATE</b></p><p>Oh joy, another bastard handicap. Perhaps this one is more solvable.</p><p><i>James Du Berlais</i> has always had big reputation after being bought out of France, but has only one win from 10 to show for it. Has appeared twice at the Festival and beaten one horse in total (the other one fell). Not good enough to run in the Championship races, too high in the weights to compete in the better handicaps.</p><p><i>Il Ridoto</i> failed over three miles on soft last time, drops back to the more suitable 2m4f here. Ran ninth in this race last year at 7/1, won't be quite so short this time but has his chance.</p><p><i>Glengouly</i> - a weird profile, after winning his debut start over fences, beating the rather handy Telmesomethinggirl, he then fell, pulled up and finished secnd last. Got sent away for a nine-month break, then this season has finished second twice in pattern handicaps, the latter being the Thyestes at Gowran Park (3m1f). Drops back to 2m4f here, I wouldn't be drawing a line through him, but similarly would want a decent price - 14/1 seems about right. </p><p><i>Saint Felicien</i> has taken to chasing well this season for a formline of 3221 although the figures aren't particularly high (still below his hurdles mark), he's lightly raced and plenty of scope to improve. Was favourite for the Coral Cup here two years ago, but pulled up blaming the soft going - a bit odd considering his last three runs (221) have been in heavy ground.</p><p><i>Shakem Up'Arry</i> - honest (perhaps ironic given the owner) chaser who has finished in the front half of the field each time he has completed the course over fences (unseated on chase debut, pulled up first time this campaign). Won a G3 here on New Year's Day in heavy going, ran a creditable sixth in the Coral Gold Cup (ex Hennessy) at Newbury the start before. Ran third here last year off a 4lbs higher mark. A sign of the strength of this edition is the fact he will carry 9lbs higher. Right in this.</p><p><i>Crebilly</i> - resumed from a two-month break with a heavy track win at Exeter, over just two rivals. Previous to that, he'd been beaten twice by Ginny's Destiny, who hopefully has won the first race by this stage. McManus runner, it's all about landing those handicap winners.</p><p><i>In Excelsis Deo</i> - another McManus runner who probably would have won last time but for falling at the last. Ran second or third at four previous starts, should have a few more wins in him. Steps out to 2m4f for the first time.</p><p><i>Theatre Man</i> - yet to win but has gone close in three chases starts so far. That's kept his mark down to quite an attractive mark given his obvious talent. Harry Cobden replaces Harry Bannister, a big step up. The one they have to beat. </p><p><i>Arctic Bresil</i> - de Bromhead/Blackmore runner, reasonable form but runs fourth too often for mine. Possibly saved for this.</p><p><i>Straw Fan Jack</i> - 8lbs lower than when he ran fourth in last year's Arkle. Hasn't been great this season but weighted to be able to bounce back.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><i>Theatre Man, Shakem Up'Arry, Straw Fan Jack, Crebilly</i></p><p>=====================</p><p><b>MARES' NOVICE</b></p><p>No real interest in this one, should be down to those who remain undefeated. Will go with:</p><p><i>Jade de Grugy, Brighterdaysahead, Majestic Force</i></p><p>=====================</p><p><b>KIM MUIR</b></p><p>Even less interest in an amateur jockeys' race. </p><p>Pass.</p><p>======================</p><p><b>BEST BETS</b></p><p>Keen on Ginny's Destiny and Theatre Man, with each-way action on Dashel Drasher. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-50560502423951121252024-03-12T23:55:00.010+00:002024-03-13T10:18:42.953+00:00Cheltenham Wednesday preview<p> CHELT WED</p><p>Here we go again for day two, hopefully with a drying track.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>GALLAGHER</b></p><p><i>Ballyburn</i> is a machine and wins this in a canter, hence the price. Won his maiden on soft/heavy by 25L, and last time won a G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival ahead of Slade Steel who won the Supreme.</p><p>A battle for the minors as they say...</p><p><i>Handstands</i> has been flying for Ben Pauling, winning four from four, but is the British form good enough?</p><p><i>Ile Atlantique</i> bolted in on heavy going back in November, ran second in the G1 Lawlor's in mid-January, beaten just a neck. Has class, obvious second choice. In the top five speed ratings performances of horses in this race, he is the only one that's not the favourite.</p><p><i>Jimmy Du Seuil</i> is another Mullins runner (he supplies five of the octet who accepted), coming straight out of maiden class. Will have talent but doubt it's G1 level, at least at this stage.</p><p><i>Jingko Blue</i> - has started fav at all three starts under Rules, and carried topweight to an easy win in a Cl3 Sandown handicap last time. Has talent but the stable is out of form at the moment, fears of a virus in the ranks.</p><p><i>Mercurey</i> - this one has been tipped as a longshot with a chance from the stable staff. Loves the wet, won his maiden by 22L at Punchestown last month, so far in front they needed the wide shot for the final hurdle. Obviously working well.</p><p><i>Predators Gold</i> - won his bumper, his maiden and then recorded a pair of seconds in Grade 1s. Solid form, a little surprised he didn't go to the Albert Bartlett, but it probably comes down to Mullins spreading his runners out over the three G1s for novice hurdlers.</p><p><i>The Grey Man </i>- so far out of contention he could be lapped. At least it might mean we get three places paid for each-way.</p><p>The Mullins trifecta looks very likely:</p><p><i>Ballyburn, Mercurey, Ile Atlantique</i></p><p>===============</p><p><b>BROWN ADVISORY</b></p><p><i>American Mike</i> - beat Fact To File at Navan in November, then went backwards at Xmas, 25L behind impressive Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior. Back to Navan last month, he had to work hard to win a G2, looking out on his feet at the end of three miles on heavy going. </p><p><i>Fact To File</i> - a rare type who went straight to chasing after running second in the Champion Bumper last season. Beaten on chase debut, he then walloped Zanahiyr and Minella Cocooner at Leopardstown in a Beginners' Chase, followed by winning a two-horse G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival after American Mike and two others withdrew on the day. Absolutely cantered home the last half-mile after Gaelic Warrior made an error and later unseated at the last. Obviously has a big engine, but have we seen him tested yet?</p><p><i>Giovinco</i> - has found his level, running in the 147-149 RPR band on four occasions, and that's quite a bit short of most of his rivals.</p><p><i>Monty's Star</i> - beat the useful Three Card Brag at Punchestown on New Year's Eve, soon after running third to Corbetts Cross (and Three Card Brag) at Fairyhouse, both in Beginners Chases. A half-brother to Monalee, there's plenty of talent in him, but the favourite is something special. </p><p><i>Sandor Clegane</i> - second at his last two runs, he's still learning as a chaser with his handicap mark still 10lbs below his impressive hurdles figure. Ran 1.25L third to Stay Away Fay in the Albery Bartlett last season, doesn't look at that level yet over fences.</p><p><i>Stay Away Fay</i> - a previous Festival winner, he'd won his first two chases before running third in the Cotswold Chase in January when a 3/1 fav. Loves to get in front and make it a proper staying test, and that might be the only way the favourite can be beaten. In that case, whether he falls in a hole at the end as well is the query...</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Good little race, are the two favourites mad enough to go too hard too early? Rather than taking the short prices at the top, I'll side with Rachael Blackmore to produce a very intelligent ride.</p><p><br /></p><p><i>Monty's Star, Fact To File, Stay Away Fay</i></p><p>===================</p><p><b>CORAL CUP</b></p><p>Always a mindboggling race to decipher....</p><p>My tealeaves landed on</p><p><br /></p><p><i>Jigoro, Sa Majeste, De Capo Glory, Built By Ballymore</i></p><p>===================</p><p><b>QM CHAMPION CHASE</b></p><p>I can't see El Fabiolo being beaten here, not by Jonbon at least, the Henderson stable is completely off this month.</p><p><br /></p><p><i>Boothill</i> won his first two races of the season but fallen at his last two in much weaker contests.</p><p><i>Captain Guinness</i> hasn't won in five races in Britain, loves flattering in small fields in Ireland.</p><p><i>Edwardstone</i> won the Game Spirit at Newbury last month but don't get too excited, he won a four-horse G2 by 40L where two of them failed to finish.Won the Arkle here two years ago, place chance.</p><p><i>El Fabiolo </i>- unbeaten in six chases, only defeat since leaving France was a hurdles defeat to Jonbon nearly two years ago. Won this comfortably last year.</p><p><i>Elixir De Nutz</i> - now a 10yo, he's going as well as ever, winning three of five this season, including the scalp of Jonbon last time in the rescheduled Clarence House. Still prone to the odd error, reasons for his two defeats this season, every chance of making the first three.</p><p><i>Funambule Sivola</i> - ran second in this race two years when two of the leading chances failed to finish. Recent form not even that good, he was beaten 40L by Edwardstone last time. 20pts off his RPR peak this season, there are much easier races.</p><p><i>Gentleman De Mee</i> - only two runs back from an eight-month break, needs to find a lot more to be competitive. Seems to have his best for flat tracks.</p><p><strike><i>Jonbon</i> - hasn't stepped forward this season, merely sticking around his peak from last season, bar his defeat at Cheltenham behind Elixir De Nutz. Has he saved something for his target race, or is he likely to be suffering like the rest of the Henderson stable?</strike></p><p><br /></p><p><i>El Fabiolo, Elixir De Nutz, Edwardstone</i></p><p>=======================</p><p><b>CROSS-COUNTRY CHASE (CANCELLED!)</b></p><p><br /></p><p><strike>So many runners in this with virtually no chance, we can focus on the four very good ones.</strike></p><p><strike><i>Coko Beach </i>- classy Irish staying chaser who won the Troytown in November, ran second in the Becher then switched over to banks and won easily at Punchestown at his first attempt. Have always had a soft spot for this one, should be right in the finish. </strike></p><p><strike><i>Delta Work</i> - going for three in a row in this race, defeating Tiger Roll in 2022 and Galvin in 2023. Hasn't done a lot this season, beaten 15-17L in each of three starts, but these are his terms - level weights at the FEstival. Slight leap of faith but this is his turf.</strike></p><p><strike><i>Galvin</i> - much like Delta Work, hasn't done a lot this season but it's always this race and the Grand National for him. Back to level weights a big plus, the heavy going mightn't be as suitable for him as it is for some of his rivals.</strike></p><p><strike><i>Minella Indo</i> - a recent convert to the corss-country ranks, he's been running in higher class races more recently (Gold Cup last season, Champion Chase at Down Royal in October) before his XC debut here in December, when finishing fifth, conceding 22lbs to the winner, 3.5L ahead of Galvin. I'm not sure how often Rachael Blackmore has ridden cross-country courses before, it can't be many, but she's obviously very fond of this horse. Big chance.</strike></p><p><strike><i>Stattler </i>- next best after the main quartet. Rushed into a banks debut in Feb just after a G2 when beaten by Allaho, the jockey reported he was very 'novicey' on that occasion, making plenty of mistakes. He might have needed that run to qualify for this? Not sure on the terms. Anyway, he'll have had several weeks since to tighten that up. Stays all day.</strike></p><p><i><strike><br /></strike></i></p><p><i><strike>Coko Beach, Minella Indo, Delta Work.</strike></i></p><p>===================</p><p><b>GRAND ANNUAL</b></p><p><strike><i>Dancing On My Own </i>- gives away a lot of weight to some decent rivals. Won here first-up back in October (good track) but form dropped away in December and January. A look back through previous year shows he tends to perform better at either end of the season, not the depths of winter. Not sure if that is ground-related (won on softer ground early in his career, not recently) or just when he blooms. Older horses carrying plenty of weight have done well over the years in this.</strike></p><p><i>Saint Roi</i> has run in seven Grade 1s, a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 since switching to fences, the only outlier was chasing debut back in Nov 22. Consequently, he's found this caper pretty hard. There's no El Fabiolo or Banbridge in this field. Will no doubt be heavily supported, looks like this raid has been planned for a while.</p><p><i>Maskada</i> won this race last year at 22/1, Daragh O'Keefe has kept the ride ever since. 7lbs higher this year, might not want the ground to be heavy. </p><p><i>Solness</i> - won a Listed chase ar Fairyhouse in December, then was beaten 6.5L by Madara at the Dublin Racing Festival, but carrying 16lbs more (only 6lbs difference here). Went up 9lb for the win at his previous start but might not be done yet. Trainer and jockey won the Boodles on Tuesday.</p><p><i>Sa Fureur</i> - a charmed winner of a Beginners Chase at Fairyhouse by 40L when the leader, Hunters Yarn, fell at the last when 5L clear. Still a pretty good effort to street the rest of the field. Took that form to Naas in January, running second to Quilixios. Was favourite for the Coral Cup last year but pulled up after being squeezed for room twice. Trainer Gordon Elliott hit the bar a couple of times on Tuesday, will be expecting to win a couple on Wednesday.</p><p><i>Madara</i> - former French handicapper who has won two in a row at Cheltenham and Leopardstown, rising 13lbs in the process. It's hard to have much left in hand coming into a competitve Cheltenham handicap. Talented and proven here.</p><p><i>Calico</i> - beaten 17L by Madara here in December but now meets that horse 22lbs better off after the jockey claim. Ran below par that day as well, probably due to the going (although he used to be OK in it a few years ago). I suppose we'll find out whether he stil handles it if he lines up. Not hopeless but big query on the going.</p><p><i>Path D'Oroux</i> - second to Madara, second to Hunter's Yarn at most recent starts, in his previous five chase starts, he was no better than 15L behind. Perhaps they've sorted him out now. Has a great record in big fields - 1,1,8,3 in fields with 15 runners or more. Always watch out for Gavin Cromwell.</p><p><i>Harper's Brook</i> - an entry in the rare category of twice beaten after hitting 1.01 in-running., a horse who can't be trusted until they've passed the finish post. More of a stayer last season (ran in the 3m Ultima), he won a decent Saturday race at Sandown over two miles last month and now stays at that trip. Gets a visor first time here to keep his mind on the job, and hopefully forget his previous record here - fell, last of 5, pulled up, and beaten 55L. Nope.</p><p><i>Libberty Hunter</i> - jockey is flying (13-37 in last 14 days), trainer is stone cold (0 from last 21 runners). This horse with the annoying spelling has had three chase starts so far, falling in his first and then winning his next two on slow and heavy ground. One of those victories was here on New Year's Day, stretching out up the hill to beat the talented Matata so there's another box ticked. Hasn't won by too much in those handicap wins, might still have more scope to improve.</p><p><i>Unexpected Party</i> - heard this one tipped by a couple of knowledgeable folk on a podcast last week but I can't fathom why. After winning his first race of the season, a Listed chase at Chepstow, he's raced in higher grade - G3,G1,G2 and a classy Cl2 chase, but his figures have been ropey at best. He has dropped 8lbs in the process, perhaps creating an easier avenue but he's still only one from 11 over fences.</p><p><i>Triple Trade</i> - in form this season with only a single unplaced run out of five starts, when the jockey was concerned the gelding may have been injured. Classwise, I think he's a few lengths off the top rung here.</p><p><i>Gemirande </i>- returned from 318 days off in the Greatwood Gold Cup a fortnight ago, running 21L fifth in the same race he was a narrow second in last year. He ran too keenly and the heavy track wouldn't have helped either. Last season after a long layoff, he improved sharply at his second run back. Venetia Williams has had a great season, don't rule this one out.</p><p><i>The Folkes Tiara</i> - won a Leopardstown handicap over Xmas but it was one of the cheap ones, then got put in his place behind Madara at the DRF.</p><p><i>Frere D'Armes</i> - a nice day out for the racing club owners but not likely to be competitive.</p><p><i>Hardy Du Seuil</i> - a French-bred who has mixed his campaigns between hurdles and fences. Recently returned from a 293 day break with a third in a Class 3 chase at Sandown, and now drops down to the bottom of the weights. Has a proper chance in this.</p><p><i>The King Of Prs</i> - a Cromwell raider never to be underestimated but has work to do. Loves the wet, winning on heavy or soft to heavy three times, including twice this season. Last time out at Thurles, he didn't perform but gave the winner 23lbs and drops to the very bottom of the weights here. Gavin throws on the cheekpieces first time here just to keep him focused. The trainer is winning at a very strong 24% on his British raids this season. And don't read too much into the stable jockey bookings, Keith Donoghue can't get anywhere near this weight.</p><p><br /></p><p><i>Saint Roi, Hardy Du Seuil, Solness, Gemirande, Libberty Hunter</i></p><p>=====================</p><p><b>CHAMPION BUMPER</b></p><p>Yeah, good luck solving this one. I backed Teeshan a few weeks ago so will stick with him.</p><p><br /></p><p><i>Teeshan, Jasmin De Vaux, Cantico</i></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-7334844224141964742024-03-12T01:25:00.004+00:002024-03-12T08:31:10.309+00:00Cheltenham preview - Day 1<p><b>CHELTENHAM TUESDAY</b></p><p><b>SUPREME NOVICES'</b></p><p>A weak-looking edition, where the field is simply dominated by the Mullins stable. This race rarely goes beyond the first few in the market so don't overthink it (10 of last 11 winners in single figures, but only two outright favs in last 19 runnings).</p><p><i>Asian Master</i> - an unusual runner for Mullins, a small family-owned horse retaining an amateur jockey (the son?) who would be entitled to claim 7lb if it wasn't a Grade 1. So none of the regular Mullins jockeys could take the ride anyway, so we are only guessing at his rank in the stable. He thumped Better Days Ahead last time out, but was ridden out to the line, and that runner-up is a formline for Slade Steel. Interesting side note, he ran second on debut in a P2P against one of the hottest favourites of the festival, Fact To File, two years ago. Judging by the Mullis stable tour reports, they don't yet know how good he is.</p><p><i>Favour And Fortune</i> - consistent gelding in lower class (with decent speed ratings), big step up to Championship level here though and needs a big step forward. </p><p><i>Firefox</i> - beat Ballyburn at Fairyhouse in December, but then disappointed in the Lawlor's at Naas two months ago. Tipped up by some decent judges here so they've obviously found excuses for the last run and have faith that he'll be in prime shape here. Strong in the market so must be considered.</p><p><i>Gold Dancer</i> - bought out of France for €250k but flopped at his Irish debut in the Dublin Racing Festival G1. Based on the jockey bookings/owner restricitons, he's probably ranked last in the stable entrants. Would need a miracle turnaround to compete here.</p><p><i>Jeriko Du Reponet</i> - was highly hyped earlier in the season but hasn't progressed much in the ratings in two wins since. Seems the sort of type to only do enough as required to win, not the sort who will go out and dominate. If that's the case, then a proper test against a fleet of Irish talent could see a big progression for him. The runner-up from his last win, Lump Sum, has since gone onto win the G2 Dovecote. Don't go ruling him out.</p><p><i>Kings Hill</i> - has only won a maiden at Thurles, huge rise in class here. A nice day out for the owners anyway.</p><p><i>Mistergif</i> - lowly rated on the Flat in France but then sold for €190k after a second and a fifth at Auteuil. Bolted in on Irish debut at Limerick with quite a handy speed rating. Another bit of Mullins bingo with the jockeys, Dryl Jacob is the retained rider for Munir and Souede, so who knows where he fits in the picture? Wears a hood for the first time.</p><p><i>Mystical Power</i> - probably the best-bred hurdler of all-time, by super Flat sire Galileo out of the champion hurdling mare Annie Power. Would have cost a fortune if he wasn't retained by the breeders. Has been winning easily so far, capped off by a 7L win in the G2 Moscow Flyer at Punchestown in January. Room for concern with his jumping though - his last two race comments start with 'didn't jump with fluency'. Could the pressure of a G1 bring him unstuck? That will probably depend on the tactics of the six non-Mullins runners. The first-time hood is a little concerning.</p><p><i>Slade Steel</i> - handy de Bromhead trained hurdler with strong Irish form. Has twice finished 7L behind Ballyburn, in a Punchestown Festival bumper and in a G1 at last month's Dublin Racing Festival. In between, he won a pair of Naas hurdles, including a G2. In the mix.</p><p><i>Supersundae</i> - twice raced, both times in France but yet to win. Another nice day for the owners.</p><p><i>Tellherthename</i> - trained by the British 'flavour of the month', Ben Pauling, and possesses quite a decent form book. Has bolted in twice at Huntingdon, was beaten a nose by Jango Baie on rules debut, and then pulled up, behind the same horse, after a stumble in the G1 Tolworth on Boxing Day when highly rated in the market. The form mightn't be as strong as the Irish form but it does carry some weight. On Racing Post Ratings, still a bit to do.</p><p><i>Tullyhill</i> - the default favourite as he ticks the Mullins & Townend box. Ran second in the Irish Champion Bumper at Punchestown last season, was beaten at 1/8 making several errors on hurdle debut by Shannon Royale who hasn't gone on, followed by impressive wins in a Naas maiden and a Listed novice at Punchestown. One of the beaten brigade who can be used as a comparison is Jigoro, who finished 7L behind Mystical Power and 9.25L behind Tullyhill, roughly the same given the conditions. </p><p><br /></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p>There's a strong chance of a Mullins 1-2-3 here, but which way? Don't read too much into the jockey bookings as half of the six have retained jockeys through the ownership but Tullyhill goes on top for me. Mistergif showed good speed at Limerick which comes in handy here and Asian Master could put value into exotics with third. Opposing Mystical Power based on rusty jumping but he could just be a star.</p><p><i>Tullyhill, Mistergif, Asian Master</i></p><p>============</p><p><b>ARKLE CHASE</b></p><p><i>Authorised Speed</i> - two chase starts for a fall and numerous mistakes in a weak race at Plumpton. Nope.</p><p><i>Found A Fifty</i> - has found his calling as a chaser, looking quite impressive in four chase starts, for a win, second to the Irish National winner over 2m4f, a G1 win over My Mate Mozzie & Facile Vega on Boxing Day, and a narrow defeat to Il Etait Temps in the Irish Arkle just over a month ago. Has to go close. </p><p><i>Gaelic Warrior</i> - quirky jumper who has won six times going right-handed, one (from seven) going to the left. Of the latter, the first three runs were in France where he failed to win, and two have been seconds at the Festival (in the Boodles and the Ballymore Novices). The issue is that he veers off to the right when he jumps. Going right-handed, he has a rail to guide him. At Cheltenham, it means he travels further and loses ground to rivals. Exceptional hurdler, has won two from three over fences, unseating in a two-horse race last time. He'll be in the finish but his quirks mean I can't put him on top.</p><p><i>Hunters Yarn</i> - handy hurdler who was several lengths clear on chasing debut in December when he fell at the last (SP 1/3 fav!), and then won effortlessly in a Beginners Chase at Fairyhouse six weeks later. Obviously talented but hasn't crossed paths with any of these over fences. Untapped and hard to line up against stable rivals.</p><p><i>Il Etait Temps</i> - top class hurdler who went off second fav in the Supreme last year, but didn't jump that cleanly, finishing fifth. Second to Gaelic Warrior, beat Found A Fifty in his last two runs, but has disappointed at the last two Festivals. That rules him out for mine. </p><p><i>JPR One</i> - won a G2 at Lingfield in January, I just have concerns about the depth of this class of chasers in the UK. </p><p><i>Master Chewy</i> - was nearly brought down at the first fence at Lingfield so ignore that race. Had a strong record of two wins and two seconds from his first four chases versus no wins from seven hurdles runs, so seems to have found his place now. Like JPR One, I don't think the UK form around him is strong enough.</p><p><i>Matata</i> - created havoc at Lingfield last time, almost taking out half the field at the first fence. Jockeys will be cautious around him. A win and two seconds from three chase starts, the UK form is again the query.</p><p><i>My Mate Mozzie</i> - stayed on late to be runner-up behind Found A Fifty on Boxing Day, giving him a record of a win (here) and two seconds from three chase starts. Note his last two runs (first and second) have made use of a tongue tie, and now he receives cheekpieces, which he has tried once before (Galway Hurdle two years ago, started 2nd fav but finished 13th). 8yos and horses with headgear traditionally have a poor record in this but Gavin Cromwell has no fear of breaking trends. Going the right way, definite chance.</p><p><i>Quilixios</i> - won the Triumph back in 2021, had over 20 months off before this campaign. From three chase starts, he has won two (over 2m and 2m3f) and finished a mile back over 3m - hence the return to two miles. His chase mark is still 9lb below his hurdles mark, suggesting there is still plenty of scope for improvement. Can go close here.</p><p>SUMMARY</p><p>This is a great betting race, with only one horse given no hope, and question marks over several of the fancies. Gaelic Warrior has plenty of talent and could just brain them, but I'd rather take him on with his quirks on display here.</p><p><i>Found A Fifty, Quilixios, My Mate Mozzie</i></p><p>===============</p><p><b>ULTIMA CHASE</b></p><p>The first of the 'massive field, throw a dart' races.</p><p>Will be studying this until as late as possible for my Colossus and Placepot bets. Early thoughts are Trelawne, Twig and Chianti Classico. The Irish have a poor record in this race, at least in terms of winning. The new JP McManus-owned fav falls into this bogey. </p><p>===============</p><p><b>CHAMPION HURDLE</b></p><p>Now that Constitution Hill is out, there's just as much of a gap between State Man and the rest. He's that darn good. For the placings, Irish Point and Nemean Lion.</p><p><i>State Man, Irish Point, Nemean Lion</i></p><p>===============</p><p><b>MARES' HURDLE</b></p><p>Lossiemouth is odds-on for a reason here, just the one defeat from seven starts when desperately unlucky, and she resumed this season by winning the International Hurdle ahead of Love Envoi (second in this race last year) by nearly 10L. </p><p>Ashroe Diamond is the best of her stablemates and win a G2 at Doncaster impressively last time. Gala Marceau inflicted the only defeat of Lossiemouth's career but has flatlined ever since. Marie's Rock was favourite for this race last year but was well beaten, think she's better over a longer trip now. Echoes In Heaven and Love Envoi are off to the breeding barn and the sales respectively after this, not expecting either to go out on top.</p><p><br /></p><p><i>Lossiemouth, Ashroe Diamond, anything</i></p><p>===============</p><p><b>BOODLES FRED WINTER</b></p><p>Love this race, brickbats to all those who want it scrapped!</p><p><i>Liari</i> - the only Tuesday runner for Paul Nicholls who arrives having won all three hurdles starts, showing natural progression at each start, but notably all of them were on flat tracks. Won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle last month, so he has to be in with a big chance here despite topweight but is vulnerable to a lighter-handicapped rival who has kept something up the sleeve. </p><p><i>Ndaawi</i> - could have won by 20L last time but eased down to only record a 2.5L victory at Naas. Finished 3.5L behind Miss Manzor the previous start at similar weights. Has class, perhaps hitting his straps now?</p><p><i>Batman Girac</i> - had a lovely 'quiet' run in the G2 Dublin Juvenile Hurdle on St Stephen's Day, held up at the back of the field then running on nicely through the field without a lot of room to finish fourth, behind a couple of leading fancies in the Triumph on Friday. He wasn't the favoured runner for the owners that day after a mysterious run the previous start (jockey eased him down suspecting an injury). In a race where you need to be wary of disguised form, he's one to watch.</p><p><i>Miss Manzor</i> - finished behind Batman Girac on Irish debut in December but stepped up soon after to win at Fairyhouse, ahead of Ndaawi and Karia Des Blaises. Carrying a hefty weight for a filly, bit probably the stable pick outside of the Munir & Souede runner.</p><p><i>Eagle Fang</i> - gets the form tick for winning the lead-up race at Naas which has provided four of the past five winners. He was five lengths ahead of Bright Legend on that day, claiming his first win after dropping back from a couple of Graded races. In the mix.</p><p><i>Karia Des Blaises</i> - has finished behind Miss Manzor in both starts since leaving France, needs more than the 3lb swing in the weights.</p><p><i>Milan Tino</i> - a JP McManus-owned runner still being trained out of France. Hasn't won in four starts (placed each time), but each of those has been G2 or Listed so this is a drop down to a more realistic level. Placings behind Burdett Road and Sir Gino, both at Cheltenham, rates him a worthy favourite. </p><p><i>An Bradan Feasa</i> - collateral formlines throught Burdett Road (6.5L behind at level weights) and Liari (8.75L behind, receiving 3lbs) put him into calculations now that he gets 8lbs from the topweights. </p><p><i>Ose Partir</i> - quite tight in the market considering his form, bookies have a lot of respect for Martin Brassil. Has barely beaten a horse home in his past three, I can't have him.</p><p><i>Nara</i> - another McManus-owned runner in the green & orange hoops. Won easily at his only start in France, then well beaten in both races in Ireland. But remember, that gets him his handicap mark - he didn't look to be trying too hard at Naas (the form race with four of the last five winners) or Fairyhouse. Has Mark Walsh, JP's no.1, aboard.</p><p><i>Mordor</i> - a second and three thirds from eight runs on the Flat and over obstacles. Nope.</p><p><i>Pigeon House</i> - speaking of non-winners, this one is none-from-fifteen, although his five placings (all seconds) have all appeared over hurdles. Finished in front of a few of these, including Lark In The Mornin, at Punchestown, but I can't have a serial non-winner.</p><p><i>Eagles Reign</i> - couldn't win a maiden so stepped into handicap company to get off the mark last time at his eleventh atempt. Big gap between that form and what is needed here. Pass.</p><p><i>Balboa</i> - onto his sixth (!) trainer in 12 months, with a record of one win from 12 starts. Not that far behind Liari last time but has a lot to find here to be competitive.</p><p><i>Lark In The Mornin</i> - well fancied at all three hurdles starts but yet to land a victory. Last time he had an excuse after a mishap at the last cost him a few lengths, but the previous two runs weren't worth forgiving. There's obviously feeling in the stable there's a lot more to come but I can't have him as favourite.</p><p><i>Les Loyautes</i> - on debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies after one win from nine jumps starts (four hurdles, five chases) in France. Too exposed to worry about here.</p><p><i>Roaring Legend</i> - handy on the Flat, rated at a peak of 83, then runner-up to two very talented types from the Nicholls camp before flopping at 2/7 at Market Rasen last time. Perhaps the small field and slow pace caught him out but he was rather disappointing. In with a chance on the previous two run.</p><p><i>Palamon</i> - third behind Ndaawi at level weights last time, but the 3.75L margin really should have been 20. Not for mine.</p><p><i>Harsh</i> - started his jumping career with two decent runs before a distant fourth in the G2 Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow over Xmas. Has been off ever since and now receives 7lbs for using a jockey who has won just three races from 52 in his career. Pass.</p><p><i>Bright Legend</i> - progressive juvenile who is owned by the same connections as Band Of Outlaws who won this race in 2019. Doesn't have anywhere near the level of form though, he barely got into the race where as Band of Outlaws was rated 5lbs higher than anything in this edition. Some chance but wouldn't be rushing to back him. Ran second in the 'hot' race at Naas last time out.</p><p><i>Latin Verse</i> - interesting British runner with a few stable switches. Is two-from-two for Syd Hosie in lesser class, ran in a couple of stronger races for Anthony Charlton, finishing distanced behind Liari in heavy going at Aintree, but went much closer against the stablemate Kabral Du Mathan a month later and then bolted in by 19L at Ludlow back under Hosie. Very curious, hasn't been missed in the market.</p><p><i>Teorie </i>- handy one at the bottom of the weights for Fergal O'Brien. This stable had a third here a few years back with Elham Valley, and claim this one has more gears. Has won two of his three starts, the other time running too free for a 7lb claimer. Not hopeless.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Batman Girac feels like he could have a lot up his sleeve, Nara might have the brakes released while the bottom pair could sneak the placings. Happy to place lay this favourite (Lark In The Mornin).</p><p><i>Batman Girac, Nara, Latin Verse, Teorie</i></p><p><br /></p><p>===============</p><p><b>NH CHALLENGE CUP</b></p><p>Seven runners in an amateurs' race is a very disappointing return. I don't see the point of this race in the first place, this confirms it.</p><p><i>Corbetts Cross</i> - very talented but a bit erratic. Ran out at the last obstacle in the Albert Bartlett last year and fell last time out. Hooded first time. Take on trust.</p><p><i>Embassy Gardens</i> has won his two chase starts by at least 10 lengths so is the obvious favourite. Flopped in the Albert Bartlett last year, gets the first-time hood here. Lightly raced, horses with only two previous chase starts have struggled in recent years - 10 of the last 14 winners have had at least four goes over fences.</p><p><i>Henry's Friend</i> represents Ben Pauling and has won three in a row, topping it off with the Reynoldstown at Ascot, a G2 Novice. Only four starts over fences though. </p><p><i>Kilbeg King</i> was just beaten by Henry's Friend at Ascot after running thid in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. Yet to win in four chases, but his figures are up to this, the extra distance probably works in his favour.</p><p><i>Mr Vango</i> won the Devon National (at his second chase start) by 60L after the race fell apart. Would be a poignant winner for Sara Bradstock, after the recent passing of her Gold Cup-winning husband Mark, and has been tipped up by several decent judges. </p><p><i>Salvador Ziggy</i> - won his first two chase starts early in the season, cam runner-up in the Kerry National and then went after the big cash in America for the Grand National Hurdle without success. He's not run since last October which makes 3m6f a real test, but Gordon Elliott is not to be underestimated.</p><p><i>Apple Away</i> - the only mare in the field, she finished her hurdling career with a win in the G1 Sefton Novices' at Aintree last April. As a chaser, she has been placed twice behind Grey Dawning (favourite for the Turner's), won by 31L at Leicester, and came third (beaten less than 3L) in the Reynoldstown at Ascot against a couple of these. The concern with her is her runs appear to have been restricted to flat tracks rather than the undulations she will see here (ran here once, beaten 24L). </p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Only seven runners kills the each-way angle but I think there is value at bigger prices.</p><p><i>Kilbeg King, Henry's Friend, Mr Vango</i></p><p>-----------</p><p><b>BEST OF THE DAY</b></p><p>Festivals are never easy and I'm not going to recommend an odds-on pop.</p><p>Batman Girac (10/1) each-way in the Boodles and a place bet on Kilbeg King (~3/1) in the last will do.</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-68782497459869191862023-11-06T10:16:00.002+00:002023-11-06T10:16:37.372+00:00Melbourne Cup preview 2023<p>The great race - a good blend of foreign raiders, locally-trained imports and a couple of freaks who were bred locally. Where's the best formline - the Caulfield Cup, the Ebor, last year's Cup...? Vauban has been all the rage for a few months, but we've heard that song before. Willie Mullins is determined to win this race, he's been close several times.</p><p>Fingers crossed for a dry day, there's nothing more annoying than rain on race day that messes up all the ratings.</p><p>Weather report : 30C, likely storm but late in the day, so might be after the Cup. 70% chance of rain, but only up to 2mm - so how much of a storm actually is it? Might make the track slippery (favouring front-runners) if it arrives before the race. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgweAFKR9hQ5758gzgZ13a_gcVKyLDbS9TYC8HujJSOJk1_u2T8J3xDpfxosztBq9-zVmD1onPaaH58BqBpUQku8FeCKCRBlTu6H7YrBLgD5tZqPKw1b9qs1yNzeFYLJy68C5yWHYwtvoXWY0f0vUWWs0rKhtjJk_KuOj7uYAxKrj-beFb6P40Y2kkzY0Rs/s2560/Gold-TripMelbourne-CupGroup-1_01-11-2022_WIN_Flemington_7__1431-scaled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1707" data-original-width="2560" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgweAFKR9hQ5758gzgZ13a_gcVKyLDbS9TYC8HujJSOJk1_u2T8J3xDpfxosztBq9-zVmD1onPaaH58BqBpUQku8FeCKCRBlTu6H7YrBLgD5tZqPKw1b9qs1yNzeFYLJy68C5yWHYwtvoXWY0f0vUWWs0rKhtjJk_KuOj7uYAxKrj-beFb6P40Y2kkzY0Rs/w640-h426/Gold-TripMelbourne-CupGroup-1_01-11-2022_WIN_Flemington_7__1431-scaled.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Gold Trip winning in 2022</span></i></p><p><b>======================================================<br />The Lexus Melbourne Cup</b><br /><i>Group 1 Handicap, 3200m<br />AUS$8.4m, </i><i>Flemington</i><i><br />1500 local, 0400 GMT<br />Expected going - Good 4, approaching Good 3 by race time depending on the breeze.</i></p><p><br /></p><p><b>1 - GOLD TRIP <i>(Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace) James McDonald 58.5kg (2)</i></b></p><p>The defending champ who has played a game of will he or won't he run in his last two starts, threatening to scratch because of the dry, firm tracks. Track staff will do their best to maintain a Good 4 here but if it's near 30 degrees, the track will be losing moisture by the minute, and especially if the breeze is up. Would the stable scratch him from his grand final of the campaign? Running as well as he did last season, the question is are his rivals going to be more competitive on the dry track? He showed an incredible turn-of-foot to win the Turnbull on a Good 4. Connections thought he was disadvantaged by the relentless pace at Caulfield, not giving him a breather with topweight. Shouldn't be as hectic here, but has to find a way out from his likely rail spot from gate two. A strong pace will break them up and should let him get clear, plus JMac is as good as it gets. Back-to-back winners are pretty rare, you have to be a freak to do it - we'll know that at 3.10 local time... A solid chance again.</p><p><b>2 - ALENQUER </b><i style="font-weight: bold;">(Mike Moroney) Damien Oliver 56.5kg (9) </i><i>(subject to vet test on Tuesday)</i></p><p>Ollie's last ride in the Cup on a horse who would have a reasonable chance if he was the same one who raced in Europe. He's a Group 1 winner (Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, a race won twice by So You Think back in his prime), ran sixth in the Dubai Sheema Classic (beaten 1.5L by Shahryar - ran third in Breeders Cup on weekend, and ahead of Hukum, Dubai Honour and Without A Fight in Dubai), and ran in two Arc de Triomphes. But since arriving in Australia, he's been a pack horse, no better than fifth (G1 2000m, Might and Power) or within 3.5L (last time, MV Cup), in five runs. The MV Cup wasn't bad though - he was dropped out to last from gate 12, never really got any room until straightening and then ran on nicely without being stretched. That was the furthest he's run but being by Adferflug, I doubt two miles will worry him. Can settle anywhere, he's not the worst in the field. Can insert a lot of value in the exotics.</p><p><b>3 - WITHOUT A FIGHT<i> (Anthony and Sam Freedman) Mark Zahra 56.5kg (16)</i></b></p><p>Didn't fire in last year's Cup on a wet track, seems a completely different beast on firmer ground. Was very impressive winning the Caulfield Cup, coming off a blistering pace which meant being parked midfield on the rail was no trouble at all. The field spread out nicely and left him plenty of room to move when he needed it. I can't see such a mad pace this time around but he won't need to be parked on the paint either. Does the one kilo penalty work against him? Winning both Cups in the same spring is pretty rare, especially in recent years - it was last done in 2001 by Ethereal. Has had time to recover from that brutal Cup win. By Teofilo (sire of Cross Counter) so he should be OK to stay the trip, although Dubawi progeny aren't known for winning Derbys. High class, has to go close.</p><p><b>4 - BREAKUP <i>(Taisuya Yoshioka) Kohei Matsuyama 55kg (18)</i></b></p><p>The Japanese runner who has a bit to prove after fading to finish eighth at Caulfield. I thought he'd be fine at 2400 but apparently this is his better distance range. If he wasn't fully tuned up, that was a decent run on a relentless pace and should be better suited here. He seems to need a bit of space, so he'll have to track forward and look for a position, possibly in the three-wide line. Covering extra ground won't bother him. The switch to a Japanese jockey is a bit of a concern, trading familiarity with the horse with familiarity with the venue. In the mix.</p><p><b>5 - VAUBAN<i> (Willie Mullins) Ryan Moore 55kg (3)</i></b></p><p>This year's hype horse and rightly so. He is top notch over hurdles and on the Flat, with a real boom on him ever since he made his debut for Willie Mullins. A star juvenile hurdler, he won the two premier events of that division, the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Champion 4YO Hurdle at Punchestown. Stepping up into open company, he ran into exceptional jumpers in State Man, Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill who are as good as it gets over the 'sprint' hurdling trip of two miles. Not beaten far in any of them, just think Hay List against Black Caviar, always running for a placing. Since the jumps season ended, he switched to the Flat, winning very easily at Royal Ascot in the Copper Horse Hcp, leading virtually from the start then sprinting clear (off a slow pace), then won the G3 Ballyroan Stakes at Naas ahead of Valiant King who ran at Caulfield but won't start here. That Irish race doesn't have a great record in the Cup, no winners have gone onto win at Flemington, and several have tried - including Vinnie Roe, Profound Beauty, Galileo's Choice and Latrobe. There's plenty of talent here, but the early price was poison. Drifting a bit on Monday (3.20 - 4.40), think he'll top out about there, the pros will smash him on raceday.</p><p><b>6 - SOULCOMBE <i>(Chris Waller) Joao Moreira 53.5kg (4)</i></b></p><p>A 5yo by Frankel who has had Melbourne Cup written all over him since he arrived in Australia but questions abound. His barrier manners have only gotten worse, a standard two-length pause at the start became six in the Caulfield Cup which meant race over. It is mighty difficult to overcome such a handicap in Aussie racing, especially when the pace is on. A couple of lengths missed from gate four here means he will settle back on rail, hopefully closer to midfield than the tail. He did draw barrier four first-up this campaign in the Heatherlie when he just cruised up along the rail and won easily, but over two miles it does mean more traffic as those who run out of puff hit the wall quickly and get in the way. </p><p>The other concern is his class. While visually impressive in the UK as a 3yo, he wasn't top drawer. He has a formline through Secret State who traded blows against Deauville Legend, last year's 'unbeatable' favourite. Those two met on level weights, while Soulcombe received 8.5kg from Secret State and was beaten 1.75L. While it's one year on and natural maturity etc., it makes me think he's still weighted on potential. Deauville Legend wouldn't be carrying 62kg here. Conversely, you could say he missed the start at Caulfield by six and only finished 5.5L from the winner. As much as I'd love to see the Richmond players in the Punt Road End syndicate (small % owners in a big overall syndicate) win the Cup, I think they are relying a lot on Joao Moreira to work his magic here - but the Brazilian did ride five winners in Japan on Saturday! </p><p><b>7 - ABSURDE <i>(Willie Mullins) Zac Purton 53kg (8)</i></b></p><p>Another one mixing jumping and distance races, which is quite common in the UK & Ireland. He's had four runs for Willie Mullins since being purchased out of France (most Aussie form guides seem to miss the jumps runs), a first and a sixth (raced too keenly) in novice hurdles, and the Royal Ascot second behind Vauban followed by the Ebor win. That second behind Vauban is worth a deeper look. It was his first Flat run for the stable so he was a bit of an unknown quantity. Frankie Dettori chose to hook him to the back from the gates, meanwhile Vauban went straight to the lead. The margin upon settling, and all the way to the top of the straight - about 7.5L. The distance at the post - about 7.5L. He raced keenly, he always does so he needs to go forward, and even sit wide. He did just that in the Ebor (three wide no cover), under the same rider, and took the prize. Save a bit of energy, improve a bit under Mullins' care and he's right in the finish here. One caveat though, I don't believe it was a particularly strong edition of the Ebor, but he did rate the equivalent of Heartbreak City who ran second to Almandin back in 2016. I've missed the early price but think he's right in this race. A win here would cap off the career of Zac Purton - but note, as a World Pool race, his enormous HK following will mean his tote price is a fair whack under the fixed odds equivalent.</p><p><b>8 - RIGHT YOU ARE<i> (Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace) John Allen 53kg (15)</i></b></p><p>Untried at the distance but breeding suggests he should get there (sire MC 3rd, damsire VRC Derby winner). Ran fifth in the mad tempo Caulfield Cup and completely under the radar. Was one of the few in the front half of the field who stuck on, although he did have the dream run sitting sixth, making his move and hitting the front on the turn before the swoopers came. With a bit more patience, perhaps he goes closer? Ridden cold, he might be a smokey. </p><p><b>9 - VOW AND DECLARE <i>(Danny O'Brien) Billy Egan 53kg (19)</i></b></p><p>Lines up in his fourth Cup, having won as a 4yo in 2019, then 18th as a 5yo (when going terrible), and tenth last year. Form looks OK this campaign, running like a stayer in G1 WFA races, not beaten that far then (2L behind Alligator Blood in the Might & Power), and then second to Cleveland in the MV Cup. Led and won from gate 21, might not have the pace to get across any more but will no doubt push forward. No horse will have ever won the race four years apart. Can't see him in the finish, midfield at best.</p><p><i>10 - CLEVELAND (Kris Lees) Michael Dee 52kg (23) SCRATCHED</i></p><p>Facile winner of the MV Cup given a peach of a ride by James McDonald (who can't make this weight). That was his first win in Australia in seven starts. His European form was up to this, winning the Chester Cup ahead of Coltrane (now one of the premier stayers in Britain), running second in the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot (won by Vauban this year - time 3sec slower). Probably has to go forward from gate 23 or hope can get cover in the three-wide line. Good enough on the right day but draw makes it tough.</p><p><b>11 - ASHRUN<i> (Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace) Kerrin McEvoy 51.5kg (11)</i></b></p><p>A remarkable story of a horse who was a decent chance in this race back in 2020, then went amiss and had almost three years off. Thus he has only raced 17 times as an 8yo by Australian timing. Back in his 3 and 4yo European campaign, he raced in top staying company, the Grosser Preis von Baden-Baden and Munich, the Prix Kergolay - there's a rerason Australian Bloodstock will have paid a packet for for this son of Authorized. Won the Hotham/Archer back in 2020 carrying 61kg then ran tenth in the Cup, when they were in a rush to qualify him. Thres progressive runs this time in, never beaten more than 3.75L, got too far back in the Bart Cummings and ran on nicely, sat closer to the speed in the Geelong Cup and ran a place to pass the balloting clause for entry. He's had time now and the stable have consistently said don't forget about this horse. Gate 11 is the most successful barrier in terms of wins (eight). Winning as an 8yo would be pretty unusual, but he's an unusual horse - there aren't many miles in his legs. Can see him contesting the placings.</p><p><b>12 - DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR<i> (Phillip Stokes) Daniel Stackhouse 51.5kg (12)</i></b></p><p>Ran sixth last year at 60/1 from the same barrier and drops 1.5kg this time. Wasn't going any better last year coming into the race, just have to trust the stable have got him in similar condition. Sixth through twelfth earned $160k, he'll be in the fight for that money. </p><p><b>13 - OKITA SOUSHI <i>(Joseph O'Brien) Dylan Gibbons (a) 51.5kg (20)</i></b></p><p>The pauper of the field, winning just $182k to date. Was a private sale from Coolmore as a yearling, but safe to say he'd have been valued at plenty more than that.Ran third in the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot in 2022, just behind Cleveland. Won the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot this year, (same class and terms, just 400m shorter). Didn't really do a lot in the Caulfield Cup, can do much better, perhaps the bigger track will help but the downgrade from McEvoy to Gibbons isn't inspiring. </p><p><b>14 - SHERAZ<i> (Chris Waller) Beau Mertens 51.5kg (22)</i></b></p><p>Ran second in the 2022 Sydney Cup, hasn't done a great deal since. Four races this time in read 13-8-12-8, and while they were never that far behind (just 2L in MV Cup), you don't win the world's greatest handicap off a formline like that. Drawn wide, drops a few kg, will go back, but can't see him getting involved. </p><p><b>15 - LASTOTCHKA<i> (Mick Price/Michael Kent Jnr) Craig Williams 51kg (21)</i></b></p><p>Will go forward to make most of light weight. That's her preferred running style from France, not necessarily leading but up on the pace. Her French form might look low key but deeper investigation suggests it's quite solid. In her last win, the Prix de Gladiateur over 3100m (officially good to soft, but NEVER believe French track ratings. By the time and the video, it looked dry enough), she defeated three horses who then finished second, fourth and fifth behind Trueshan (multiple G1 winner over 3200m+) in the G1 Prix du Cadran (4000m). That might suggest she's a bit slow but we probably thought the same about Americain and Dunaden. Not out of this and the wide draw isn't such a bad thing (five winners in last 30yrs from 21 or 22).</p><p><b>16 - MAGICAL LAGOON<i> (Chris Waller) Mark du Plessis 51kg (7)</i></b></p><p>Top class mare in Britain and Ireland winning the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and the Irish Oaks, but has been pretty poor since she got on a plane. Went to Japan for a mares' Group 1, came last. In five Aussie runs, she has finished no better than sixth, never beaten that far apart from her local debut, and finished only a length behind the winner in the blanket finish to the Geelong Cup after leading. The Geelong Cup was won by a 10yo and they finished in a pack -> rubbish form. Can't see her anywhere near them.</p><p><b>17 - MILITARY MISSION <i>(Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott) Rachel King 51kg (5)</i></b></p><p>Sneaky pick who has been coming along nicely this season. Won the Hobart Cup in February, the Newcastle Cup in September and the Herbert Power last month at Caulfield. Was fourth in the Metropolitan when forced to go back from a wide gate. Won off a slow tempo at Caulfield, set a track record at Newcastle, so tempo shouldn't bother him. Drops 6kg from last run, will be ably ridden by Rachel King who won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stks on Saturday. King has won four times on this horse, including the Newcastle Cup, from 14 rides. Curious point - he was placed behind future Aussie G1 winners Just Fine and Dubai Honour in his first two starts in England. Definite place chance. </p><p><b>18 - SERPENTINE<i> (Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott) Jye McNeil 51kg (1)</i></b></p><p>The gelded Epsom Derby winner of the Covid era (2020) has found some decent form since switching to the Waterhose & Bott stable this year. Apart from running second in the Archer/Lexus last spring, he'd been woeful for the Hickmott stable but Gai's magic has unlocked something. He notched up his first local win in Brisbane in April, and since then has run second in a G3 (Premier's Cup), second in the City Tatts Cup at Randwick, followed by fourth and third in a Quality and G3 over 2500m at Flemington, carrying big weights each time. He gets in on 51kg here with the interesting booking of Jye McNeil, who won on Twilight Payment with a daring front-running ride in 2020. Has drawn the rail so he'd better jump quickly. Prince of Penzance won from that gate in 2015, before that it was Kingston Rule back in 1990. It's not a plus.</p><p><b>19 - VIRTUOUS CIRCLE <i>(Liam Howley) Craig Newitt 51kg (6)</i></b></p><p>Showed future staying potential running second in the ATC Derby in the autumn on a heavy track, but seems a long way off them this season. 12th,9th,10th,8th in recent starts, although the tenth was luckless in the Bart Cummings, he then had every chance in the Geelong Cup and didn't even finish in the front group. Nope. </p><p><b>20 - MORE FELONS <i>(Chris Waller) Jamie Kah 50kg (24)</i></b></p><p>The horse formerly known as Scriptwriter in the UK. Made his name mostly as a handy juvenile hurdler but then switched back to the flat. Started 40/1 and was beaten 12.75L behind Vauban at Royal Ascot (5.25L behind Absurde). Then ran second in a poor rendition of the John Smith's Cup at York (five runners), then eighth in the Ebor (beaten 3.25L by Absurde, carrying 2lbs more, was caught four wide for much of the trip.). One of the least accomplished in the field according to prizemoney, winning only $194k so far. Made his local debut for Chris Waller in the Geelong Cup where he was close up in that blanket finish, showing a nice turn of pace late. I want to put a line through every horse in the Geelong Cup but I think we can expect a decent amount of improvement from this one at his second run. Jamie Kah, who was completely off the boil according to the tabloids last week, rode a double on Derby Day - she's back.</p><p><b>21 - FUTURE HISTORY <i>(Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace) Hollie Doyle 50kg (13)</i></b></p><p>Hasn't missed a place once in six starts in Australia (first one over shorter trip), including wins in the G3 Bart Cummings (golden ticket race) and a handicap at MV (receiving 5.5kg from Interpretation). He ran an honourable third in the MV Cup ten days ago, when he was wide (with cover) for most of the trip (drew gate 13), rather than his usual front-running style. Unusual breeding for a stayer (Showcasing usually sires sprinters), but all his form says stamina. Beat Vauban on debut 2.5yrs ago. Hasn't quite had the same career trajectory since. Nicely drawn in 13, can push forward or sit near the pace. Star UK jockey Hollie Doyle takes the ride, she is top class.</p><p><b>22 - INTERPRETATION<i> (Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace) Teo Nugent 50kg (17)</i></b></p><p>The Bendigo Cup winner who scrapes into the field. Had the perfect run in that race, was previously getting beaten by others who will be big odds here (Future History, Mostly Cloudy, United Nations, Serpentine). Started 50/1 last year (failed to finish, jockey thought something was amiss) and should be similar odds again. </p><p><b>23 - KALAPOUR<i> (Kris Lees) Zac Lloyd (a) 50kg (14)</i></b></p><p>Rated beautifully in front to win the Archer on Saturday to secure a place in the field. That was a weaker seven-horse field from gate one. Ran third in the Metropolitan and ATC St Leger before that, less than half a length behind Cleveland in the latter, now meeting him on 4kg better terms. A 7yo in Australan terms, he is very lightly raced with just 19 starts under his belt. Interestingly he was close up behind Stormy Ireland (exceptional hurdling mare) and Sonnyboyliston (high in Melb Cup betting in 2021 after winning the Ebor, but never made it) early in his career in Ireland (ran there just four times before being sold to Australia). </p><p><b>24 - TRUE MARVEL <i>(Matthews Smith) Ben Thompson 50kg (10)</i></b></p><p>Qualified by running second in the Sydney Cup and third in the Brisbane equivalent earlier in the year (winning a hurdle race in between - extremely rare in Aus!). This spring has been 8th, 10th, 8th, 10th and no shorter than 60/1. Worked home OK last time alongside Alenquer and drops 5kg. His record on dry tracks is two wins from 28. Wouldn't even be competitive in the rubbish consolation race (R5). Name a price and add some zeroes.</p><div><br /><b>SPEED MAP </b>(at the winning post, first time around)</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim9SBVNHvtTiZkIt0ZrXfdiESQDldk13A36Fxg-iP7X81_ZabXQV0mRzXrAEXFTDYVxUqEq5vJbOOYW6lSAerEwy_cX2IqxkvT-4j9DmtUrOdTYRnbcuBcKC4qKSC9Eyzb7rqaA0IA4jtItb3BrdPr-DKZFg90yVbfdDtWdkHMHWfnlHQGpmrPU7msopkI/s1197/Cup%20speed%20map%202023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="319" data-original-width="1197" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim9SBVNHvtTiZkIt0ZrXfdiESQDldk13A36Fxg-iP7X81_ZabXQV0mRzXrAEXFTDYVxUqEq5vJbOOYW6lSAerEwy_cX2IqxkvT-4j9DmtUrOdTYRnbcuBcKC4qKSC9Eyzb7rqaA0IA4jtItb3BrdPr-DKZFg90yVbfdDtWdkHMHWfnlHQGpmrPU7msopkI/w640-h171/Cup%20speed%20map%202023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>SUMMARY</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I think this probably goes back to a regular paced Cup, fast early to get a position, then the brakes go on a bit - not ridiculously like Prince of Penzance's year, but enough to give the higher weights a chance to catch a breath. That should give everyone a fair chance unless still caught wide, with the pace then applied about the 800. The Europeans, particularly Vauban, will want to make it a real test of stamina early and the rest of them will want to be within reach if they want to win, or else they are simply hoping for the pace collapse.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Absurde gets the sit on Vauban and I'm hoping he can do a Max Verstappen with the DRS down the straight and breeze on by. Willie Mullins could easily claim the quinella here, this pair seem to be his best Cup runners yet. I underestimated Without A Fight at Caulfield and won't be making that mistake again, while the likes of Lastotchka and Military Mission are in the mix for the placings, just a matter of whether it's a bunch finish or strung out like Brown's Cows.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I think there's quite a long tail to this race, the top half of the field dominate, there's not a lot down the bottom to threaten. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>RANKINGS</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Absurde</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Without A Fight</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Vauban</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Lastotchka</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Trip</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Military Mission</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Breakup</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Ashrun</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Soulcombe</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Alenquer</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">More Felons</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Future History</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Kalapour</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Serpentine</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Right You Are</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>BETS</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Absurde EW, around 9/1</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Military Mission, 1x3 EW, 25/1</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Trifecta</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">3,7 x 1,3,4,5,7,11,15 x 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,11,15,20,21,23</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">(if the rain comes early, I'll probably add Vauban to the winner bracket, as moisture on top of relatively firm ground inevitably seems to favour leaders)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>Best of luck!<br /><div><br /></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-75887972097633172922023-10-31T18:19:00.001+00:002023-11-01T08:22:46.779+00:00Another Australian racing Ponzi scheme<p> It's happened again (see pinned article above from a few years ago), but this time it's a lawyer that's the <i>(alleged)</i> crook!</p><h1 data-testid="headline" itemprop="headline" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--colorBrand); font-family: "Abril Titling Bold", system-fonts-tertiary, serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.16667; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/law-firm-under-investigation-over-bookies-missing-millions-20231031-p5egfy.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: medium;">Law firm under investigation over bookies’ missing millions</span></a></h1><div><br /></div><div>snippet</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #0a1633; font-family: "PT Serif", system-fonts-secondary, serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>The Victorian Bookmakers’ Association oversees a $10 million fund on behalf of its members, with about 20 per cent loaned out by AMS Ivanhoe to Melbourne first mortgagors. A source close to the bookmakers estimated at least $20 million in additional private investments had disappeared alongside $1.8 million from the association.</i></p></div><div class="_1lC_G" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #0a1633; font-family: "PT Serif", system-fonts-secondary, serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #0a1633; font-family: "PT Serif", system-fonts-secondary, serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>The bookmakers’ association fears its $1.8 million investment is gone days before the biggest events on the spring racing calendar, including the Melbourne Cup, while one private investor could also be out of pocket an estimated $11 million.</i></p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i><br /></i></p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Apparently this has only come to light after the lawyer involved has died (although other reports suggest a death certificate hasn't yet been seen).</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">More details in this <a href="http://rssr.link/1ULdO">RSN podcast</a>.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">So rather than being a genius tipping scheme like the Bill Vlahos case, this one has a lawyer effectively become a mortgage broker, guaranteeing huge returns and then the incoming investment dries up...</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">More on the story (Nov 1)</p><h3 style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-text-opacity: 1; border-color: rgba(222,222,222,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(51,51,51,var(--tw-text-opacity)); font-family: Circular, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.25; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem; padding-bottom: 1rem; text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.racing.com/news/2023-11-01/news-industry-bookies-hit-by-missing-millions" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: medium;">Bookies hit by missing millions</span></a></h3><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></p></div></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-3351929768777182072023-10-27T00:27:00.000+01:002023-10-27T00:27:11.850+01:002023 Cox Plate preview<p>The time-honoured W.S. Cox Plate, the best race in Aussie racing, the WFA championship over a proper racing distance (plus about 40m). It's not the best field of all time, but it's not a bad time by any stretch. The HK visitor had been a dominant favourite before he ran unplaced on local debut. Can he bounce back to the winner's circle?</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK8MwzTTdy8jFnnGT_9HHxzqtvJk-loxoBrqA3aXqdyj8m9iaD6P4dxBxI12GPOZE-50oyddqtYXscPCseSgn01HDTQ2x_a7Y9YeF5-PMyy3WbhoTejba4oOR40bi_4gEpNnH2LWfDSf7s2cJf6KxC0MKHRKdlD0E-mAYUE___LQbE4fTQreHKX9L8n6Ov/s300/Cox%20Plate%20home%20turn.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK8MwzTTdy8jFnnGT_9HHxzqtvJk-loxoBrqA3aXqdyj8m9iaD6P4dxBxI12GPOZE-50oyddqtYXscPCseSgn01HDTQ2x_a7Y9YeF5-PMyy3WbhoTejba4oOR40bi_4gEpNnH2LWfDSf7s2cJf6KxC0MKHRKdlD0E-mAYUE___LQbE4fTQreHKX9L8n6Ov/w640-h358/Cox%20Plate%20home%20turn.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>--------------------------</b></p><p><b>LADBROKES COX PLATE<br /></b><i>AU$5m, Group 1, WFA, 2040m<br />Moonee Valley, 1710 local, 0710 UK time.<br /></i> </p><p><b><i>1. Romantic Warrior</i></b></p><p>The champ of Hong Kong takes on Australia's best race. Is HK form up to Australia's? His figures by any international form measure do, if he ic close to his best. He could only run fourth in a fast-run Turnbull at his local debut when the trainer said he was only 80% fit. After first having a moan about his feed variety not being allowed into Australia (the US supplier refused to divulge the ingredient details so Aus quarantine refused it), he's been having a moan about the Werribee facilities not having a swimming pool or variety of gallops that he is used to in the principality. Is that a trainer getting the excuses out in advance or trying keep his odds realistic? Or, and probably the most likely, have innocuous little statements been taken completely out of context by the local media? The form ahead of him in the Turnbull is red hot - the top three were all great runs in the Caulfield Cup; the winner, third and a horse who missed the start by six lengths and finished closer than that at the line. James McDonald, who had ridden the horse previously for three wins out of three rides, didn't push the horse at all. He was very gentle on him in the final stages, further highlighting that that run three weeks ago wasn't his target. He looked very good at track gallop at Moonee Valley on Monday morning. Drawn perfectly, Alligator Blood should push forward on his inside and Zaaki will slide across from his outside, so he'll either be outside the leader or one back in the running line. The one to beat but don't back him on the tote, the World Pool price will be ridiculously short.</p><p><b><i>2. Zaaki</i></b></p><p>A 9yo who led and finished fourth last year, beaten 1.35L on a heavy track. This season I doubt he's going as well, his only win of the year was the far weaker G2 Hollindale Stakes at the Gold Coast, but this time in he's been beaten no more than half a length over shorter trips behind Fangirl and Think It Over. Racing Post figures though mark him just off his peak, recorded when winning the Champion (ex Mackinnon) Stakes at Flemington over the Cup carnival. Gets Frosty Lane for the first time in the saddle, almost certainly goes forward from the outside gate and probably doesn't have to work too hard to get there without many pace alternatives. I can't have a 9yo winning this race, but it has been done before (just once in 100yrs)) and not that long ago - Fields of Omagh winning his second Cox Plate in 2006. If the pace is relatively soft, he's going to be hard to get past. One for exotics.</p><p><b><i>3. Mr Brightside</i></b></p><p>The unfashionably-bred $10m winner is running at least as well as he has in previous seasons, winning five in a row this season (AllStar Mile, Doncaster, PB Lawrence, Memsie and Makybe Diva) before being picked off by Fangirl last time in Sydney, when the race was perfectly set up for her (ground also said to be too hard for him). He has a great record at the track, winning three from four but the defeat was in this race last season and he has not run a place in two starts at the trip. But those two races last season were both in the wet - will a firmer track help his see out the distance? Connections picked gate two, enabling him to take the cosy sit one or perhaps two behind the leader, rather than having to make his run from last. Can't rule him out if things fall into place.</p><p><b><i>4. Alligator Blood</i></b></p><p>Had similar form to Mr Brightside in that he was none from two over 2000m (same races last year) but broke that duck in the Might And Power a fortnight ago under a very calm ride from Tim Clark. A runaway leader led by 8-10L down the side then without panicking, Clark eased him into the race coming to the turn and waltzed away in the straight. He is 8:1-1-0 in soft or heavy going which also contributes to his poor 2000m record (2022 M&P soft, Cox heavy) but was beaten no more than 2.5L each time. Can lead but will probably let Zaaki cross him. Gai Waterhouse has tried many times but is yet to win this one. Strong chance.</p><p><b><i>5. Gold Trip</i></b></p><p>Impressive Turnbull Stakes winner three weeks ago (first win from seven attempts at 2000m, also his first dry track success) who 'felt the weight' last week in the Caulfield Cup with the relentless pace and didn't get the best of luck in the straight, though it only made a difference to the margin, not the result. Iron horses who ran Caulfield Cup-Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup last season and is likely to do the same again. Finished just behind the placegetters here last year, never really getting clear air in the straight, which turned out to be the perfect tune-up for the Cup. Has had virtually the same lead-up campaign as last year, is he a better horse now, has he peaked earlier? Mark Zahra is back aboard after taking the ride on Without A Fight at Caulfield. Will sit back and work into the race down the side. If he has the sprint he unleashed at Flemington, he's hard to hold out. If he's more the sustained surge without real zip, then it will be pressure on from the turn. With topweight and a firmer track likely ahead for the Cup, this seems like his better chance of spring success. Big race performer. In the mix.</p><p><b><i>6. My Oberon</i></b></p><p>On breeding, you'd think he'd be a Cup horse but his career has centred around the mile. Won the Crystal Mile on this day here last year (heavy ground), but has only run two placings from ten runs since, yet rarely beaten far. Third in the King Charles behind Fangirl and Mr Brightside last time shows he's likely to be in the pack, but not contending.</p><p><b><i>7. Pinstriped</i></b></p><p>Provincial-trainer galloper who is the true 'one for the battlers' with seemingly a cast of thousands in his ownership across various syndicates. Two from two at the Valley, he won the G2 Feehan in September to qualify for the race, having finished second to Mr Brightside in the P. B. Lawrence the start before. Ran home nicely to finish fifth in the Toorak Hcp when he had to settle further back than usual and was held up around the bend. Untried at 2000m, not sure he quite got home over 1800m in a BM100 race back in the autumn. A great day out for the owners, he's earned an entry here winning over $1.1m but he'll be outclassed.</p><p><b><i>8. Fangirl</i></b></p><p>Looked incredible in the mounting yard (parade ring for UK folk) at Randwick and duly saluted in the King Charles, ahead of Mr Brightside and Pinstriped after a perfect ride parked in behind the lead. That was a career-best performance for her. The mile is her best trip and it's concerning that last season as a 3yo, she won the G1 Vinery (usually over 2000m but moved to Kembla Grange due to weather and run at 1850m), usually a traditional lead-up to the ATC Oaks, but then she dropped back to 1600m for the Queen of the Turf on the same day. Although it was heavy on that day, which she didn't handle anyway, perhaps connections thought she was more likely to plough through it at a shorter trip. Can win if in similar condition to her last run, listen to the paddock experts. But with Zac Purton aboard, back her fixed odds rather than tote.</p><p><b><i>9. Duais</i></b></p><p>Damien Oliver's last ride in a Cox Plate, on a Cummings-trained mare at big odds, eerily similar to his first win here in 1995, aboard Dane Ripper, a G1-winning mare who poked through on the rail. A multiple G1 winner (QTC Oaks, Australian Cup, Tancred Stakes), she specialises in snapping up some of the weaker ones. This isn't one of them. Three thirds this year, behind Without A Fight and Alligator Blood (twice). Handy form but not up to these. </p><p><b><i>10. Victoria Road</i></b></p><p>The unknown quantity from the Aidan O'Brien stable, although not for much longer as he has been bought by Ozzie Kheir and friends, so I assume he'll stay on with Maher & Eustace. He was an exceptional 2yo, progressing from a Listed race win (over Blue Rose Cen, one of the best fillies in Europe) at Deauville up to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Any BC win is impressive, but let's take it in context - turf racing in the US is limited and it's over the longest distance a 2yo races in the US, it's not the elite level test it quite seems. As a northern hemisphere 3yo, he has raced twice - beaten 6.75L by Arc winner Ace Impact in a G2 and then third in the G2 Dullingham Park (wfa) at Leopardstown, just touched off for second by Buckaroo, who debuted in Australia five lengths behind Fangirl a fortnight ago. I can't see it but you'll go broke underestimating Aidan O'Brien. He won this with Adelaide in 2014 and his son Joseph won it two years ago, while a former O'Brien colt, Sir Dragonet, won for Maher & Eustace in 2020. </p><p><b><i>11. Militarize</i></b></p><p>He was the boom colt at the end of last season winning the Sires Produce and Champagne Stakes Group 1s in Sydney (notably both on wet tracks). This time in, he won the Golden Rose but could only finish fifth in the Caulfield Guineas a fortnight ago after being drawn wide. That race shape heavily favoured the leaders and he was the best of the horses running on from the back. He drops down to the local 3yo weight here and gets 9.5kg from his older rivals here from gate three. Good 3yos go close in this, if Zac Lloyd can settle him in the front half, he's a big chance.</p><p><b><i>12. King Colorado</i></b></p><p>The G1 JJ Atkins winner from the Qld winter carnival who hasn't quite found that form this time in. He had no luck in the Winx Stakes against open wfa class, then finished 2L behind Militarize in the Golden Rose and only fourth in the Guineas when he travelled wide but had the advantage of being on-pace. He finished just ahead of Militarize on that day but I'd be surprised if it finished in that order again. Does have Micky Dee aboard though.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Last year we had Zaaki leading with Alligator Blood on his outside, with the winner Anamoe (ridden by James McDonald) sitting right in the perfect spot behind them in fourth. Keep your eye on the track pattern over the two meetings at Moonee Valley. I'm expecting to be dry and quite fast, which usually benefits front runners but it could easily start cutting up with a drop of rain.</p><p>Will it be deja vu for J-Mac? I reckon it might be, with the Alligator close behind and the 3yo making the frame. Throw in Zaaki for exotics.</p><p><i>Romantic Warrior</i></p><p><i>Alligator Blood</i></p><p><i>Militarize</i></p><p><i>Zaaki</i></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-36699091700990392792023-10-20T13:04:00.001+01:002023-10-20T13:04:02.095+01:002023 Caulfield Cup preview<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The richest 2400m handicap in the world, a truly great race and a very strong edition of the race. After a lean few years of international involvement, we have some very good ones from Ireland, Japan and the UK. Five million dollars is worth the effort...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">All eyes will be on Caulfield this weekend, the forecast is for 23C with a chance of a shower or two. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEm8ZX4POw4tsjydsp7xMWO0ryAndvFnypbgI5r2PQ1Fu9-Ad168fdiNETNS9Zm9w4i5hyW_kxdfo4lKV3ItDgIH2VUHS2TvAMUpV-RjtCupuCh5QSOl8aV_oaq1c1HvtFjw2X8wXHk5oel3IBcEs1aKiLD6jUiPdZv5z8wYtiB9DwWyWrxMUPakIS0kLq/s620/Caulfield-Cup-Trophy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="620" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEm8ZX4POw4tsjydsp7xMWO0ryAndvFnypbgI5r2PQ1Fu9-Ad168fdiNETNS9Zm9w4i5hyW_kxdfo4lKV3ItDgIH2VUHS2TvAMUpV-RjtCupuCh5QSOl8aV_oaq1c1HvtFjw2X8wXHk5oel3IBcEs1aKiLD6jUiPdZv5z8wYtiB9DwWyWrxMUPakIS0kLq/w640-h424/Caulfield-Cup-Trophy.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>=======================================</p><p><b>Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup</b></p><p><i>AU$5m, Group 1 Handicap, 2400m</i></p><p><i>1715 local time, 0715 UKT</i><br /><br /></p><p><b>1. Gold Trip</b><i> — Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — Jockey: Ben Melham — 58.5kg</i></p><p>The reigning Melbourne Cup winner who showed a blistering turn-of-foot to win the Turnbull Stakes three weeks ago, at set weights and penalties. Ran a close second last year, doing the hard work on the bend and hitting the front before being swamped late by a lightweight. Goes up only 1kg from last season and has earnt that rise. Loses his regular rider in Mark Zahra here, who was caught out by the uncertainty over him running here again. It was impossible not to be impressed by his Turnbull run. This is the perfect next step, another 400m, he's been here before and is proven carrying big weights. The stat that no winner has carried 58.5kg since the introduction of metric weights is a furphy - the minimum weight has changed over the years and half a kilo means sweet FA to a 500kg beast. Any doubts over needing a rain-affected track were dispelled last time too, although the stable are reserving the right to scratch him in the morning. I keep looking at his European form and doubting what he can do. Forget that, Maher & Eustace have taken him to a new level. Needs space, gate 11 is ideal. There is a recent precedent of horses winning the Melbourne Cup one year then returning to win at Caulfield - see Dunaden and Viewed. Not sure how they beat him. </p><p><b>2. Without A Fight — </b><i>Anthony & Sam Freedman — Mark Zahra— 55.5kg</i></p><p>Made his Australian debut with a midfield finish in last year's Melbourne Cup before transferring to the Freedman camp. Went to Brisbane for the winter (the northern summer that he'd have been used to) and picked up a G2 and a G3 in two starts to tune him up for the spring. Resumed after 15 weeks off with a nice sixth in the Underwood a month ago. He came from deep in the field to run on late after struggling to find room off the bend. Had it been his grand final, the intent would have been stronger - it was a lovely pipe-opener to get him ready for this. Had to be reinspected by the vets on Friday afternoon after reporting lameness on Thursday morning, but passed the test. </p><p><b>3. Breakup — </b><i>Tatsuya Yoshioka — Damian Lane — 55kg</i></p><p>A Japanese runner who is automatically hard to assess. Has been running at big odds in the races some of the western racing world are familiar with: Arima Kinen, $119, 16th of 16 (on the pace, stumbled at the 800m, faded out of it); Tenno Sho, $46, 4th of 17; Takarazuka Kinen, $113, 12th of 17 (sat three-wide on the pace). Amongst those, there are two races with better results, both of which were also lead-up runs for the ill-fated Admire Rakti, the Japanese CC winner back in 2014. (Mer de Glace took a different route and is harder to line up). In November last year, he won the Copa Republica Argentina (G2, 2500m) at an SP of $18, and ran third in the G2 Hanshin Daishot, SP $32. Admire Rakti ran third and second in those respective races. Part of the poor SP profile might be explained by the trainer (as of 2023) being relatively new - he sits 13th on the Japanese trainers table (by wins - 29) but he has far fewer career wins (92) than anyone else in the top 30. Damian Lane is the best line on his ability, having ridden a lot in Japan in recent years. If he wanted this ride, he has to be a strong chance. He'll sit close to the pace and make this a proper staying test.</p><p><b>4. Montefilia — </b><i>Chris Waller — Nash Rawiller — 54.5kg</i></p><p>Fourth in the past two Caulfield Cups (drops a kilo on last year), she won going away in the Hill Stakes last time at Rosehill. Has changed stables this campaign, now with Chris Waller, which could see her finding that extra length or two required here. Drew 15 last year and had to go back, can sit much closer from gate nine if she jumps well (has been known to walk out of the barriers). Has never been one I've been keen on but she's in the mix.</p><p><b>5. Francesco Guardi — </b><i>Chris Waller — James McDonald — 54kg</i></p><p>Meets Gold Trip 3.5kg better for 5.05L defeat in Turnbull. Created a big impression last year when he ran throughout the winter, entered the spring in peak fitness, carrying that through to running second in the Bart Cummings then bolted in in the Moonee Valley Cup on a heavy track on Cox Plate day. This season, he's had ten months off and arrives here fourth-up after three reasonable runs over shorter trips, never beaten more than about 5L. This is a proper distance for him at this stage of his career, and James McDonald returns to his saddle with a record of three wins and a second from four rides. He'll have to execute the perfect ride from gate 15 though.</p><p><b>6. West Wind Blows</b> — <i>Simon & Ed Crisford — Jamie Spencer — 54 kg</i></p><p>Meets Gold Trip 3kg better for 1.75L defeat in Turnbull. They went hard early in that race, he got caught wide and then had to push forward, leading or outside the leader from the 1000m mark, fighting on remarkably well for second. Better judges than me red flag that as being a gutbuster first-up which often leads to a flat run next time. Of course that's the usual standard in Australian conditions, technically he's still trained in the UK with markedly different training regimes. Strong form through elite performers Pyledriver and Paddington in the UK this season. Jamie Spencer from an inside gate at Caulfield is a concern, he wasn't fast away last time and might get caught back on the fence.</p><p><b>7. Nonconformist</b> — <i>Grahame Begg — Harry Coffey — 53.5 kg</i></p><p>Ran second two years ago behind Incentivise, but was flying at the time, second in the Might And Power, and won the Naturalism, but was only tenth last year. Has a very tough task this time from the outside gate, and in lesser form this time in - fourth last time in the Might And Power but a closer seventh in the Underwood before that. Always aimed at this race but think his time of being a winning chance is behind him.</p><p>Failed vet test on Friday --> SCRATCHED</p><p><b>8. Soulcombe — </b><i>Chris Waller — Craig Williams — 53.5 kg</i></p><p>Made a huge impression in Melbourne last spring winning the G3 Queen Elizabeth at Flemington during Cup week, which was no surprise to those who had seen him in the UK. He didn't really come up in the autumn but this spring he has back in force, winning the Heatherlie Handicap in a canter, the shortest winning trip of his career (1700m), before stepping into G1 company for his last two runs, performing honourably both times. Meets Gold Trip 3kg better for 2.15L defeat in Turnbull. Has the Chris Waller magic touch to him, drawn nicely in six although he'll probably drop back. Everything has pointed at peaking him for the two Cups, big chance.</p><p><b>9. Duke De Sessa — </b><i>Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — John Allen — 53 kg</i></p><p>Imported galloper in his fourth Aussie run. They've not given him anything easy, running in G1s each time. Stepping out to a better distance last time, he now meets Gold Trip 3kg better for being beaten 4.85L in the Turnbull. There has been plenty of talk about him on the training track so I wouldn't write him off completely. With the master trainers of Melbourne, they know how to fire on 'grand final day' - just look at the 33/1 Caulfield Guineas winner last weekend. Drawn a little wide but the majority of winners in the past 12 years have started from a double-figure gate. One for exotics.</p><p><b>10. Hoo Ya Mal — </b><i>Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott — Tim Clark — 53 kg</i></p><p>Twelfth in last year's Melbourne Cup fresh off the plane, then had a long break before his three runs this season in Sydney. Has built up nicely into this, finishing reasonably close as each race distance was extended, and finished a half-length second to Montefilia in the Hill Stakes over 1900m last time, trying to run them off their legs. Meets that winner 3.5kg better off here. Rises in class but his whole campaign will have been aimed at the two Cups. Would expect a typical Gai run, settling near the pace and then stretching them out early to pinch a break on the home turn.</p><p><b>11. Right You Are — </b><i>Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — Michael Dee — 53 kg</i></p><p>A revelation last season, winning six out of seven between December and April including the Mornington Cup. Now he's into proper G1 territory and finding it a bit harder. Wasn't far behind Soulcombe in the Underwood but then was beaten nearly 8L in the Turnbull. Has won at this distance (Mornington Cup) but his best asset here looks to be longshot G1 king Micky Dee in the saddle. </p><p><b>12. Emissary — </b><i>Michael Moroney — Jye McNeil — 52 kg</i></p><p>Geelong Cup winner and Melb Cup second last season, doesn't seem to be going as well this time in. Lines up 4.5kg better vs Gold Trip from the Turnbull but was beaten 10.05L. Gets to his right distance range here so expect some improvement, but I'm more likely to be looking at him in November. </p><p><b>13. Goldman — </b><i>Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott — Linda Meech — 52 kg</i></p><p>Won his way into spring contention with a string of wins in the autumn, finishing with a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup by winning the Listed Roy Higgins. That form looks a distant memory though, he hasn't finished in the first five in the Feehan, Naturalism and Bart Cummings. Overraced last time, takes the blinkers off here which should help. Linda Meech is excellent on a front-runner. </p><p><b>14. Okita Soushi — </b><i>Joseph O'Brien — Kerrin McEvoy — 51.5 kg</i></p><p>Japanese-owned, Irish-trained visitor who seems to fail in big field handicaps, unless they are at Royal Ascot (first and third at RA, beaten out of sight in the Ebor and Irish Cesarewitch). Has the talent, doesn't always bring it on raceday. JO'B is a master at travelling, he's won the Melbourne Cup twice and the Cox Plate once and he's only 30. His stablemate down the bottom might be the more favoured runner but he's not here for the sun tan.</p><p><b>15. Fame — </b><i>Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman — Craig Newitt — 51 kg</i></p><p>Ran second in the Qld Derby, coming off wins in a Kyneton maiden and a BM64 at Moe, not your usual route to a Derby placing. Running midfield against much-lesser rivals this time in, I don't give him any hope at all. </p><p><b>16. Bois D'Argent — </b><i>Annabel Neasham — Winona Costin — 50.5 kg</i></p><p>Arrived in Australia this time last year and has been having a wonderful time running in Cup races throughout NSW and Qld - Gosford, Caloundra, Wyong and Newcastle plus various pattern races in Sydney. Hasn't been close enough in his last two races, Newcastle Cup and the Metropolitan to suggest he has a chance here, though he does drop 6.5 and 3kg respectively from those runs.</p><p><b>17. Spirit Ridge — </b><i>Annabel Neasham— Dean Yendall — 50.5 kg</i></p><p>The most experienced runner in the field, a 9yo (!) with 41 runs under his belt. That's not that many for his age but he's been on a similar regional run to stablemate Bois D'Argent and despite running a series of placings, let's not kid ourselves that is anything like the level required here. He has tried to lead all the way in the Wyong Cup, the Newcastle Cup and the Metropolitan, and fought on well each time for a placing. Durston last year at 7 (NH-bred so 6.5 really) was the oldest winner this side of the Y2K panic. </p><p><b>18. Valiant King — </b><i>Joseph O'Brien — Jamie Kah — 50 kg</i></p><p>The smokey at the bottom of the weights. As a northern hemisphere 3yo, he gets in with 50kg. Unusually, he's a Roaring Lion who likes wet tracks, the breed tend to prefer drier ground. He has had two headline runs - running a head second to the royal horse Desert Hero in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot (big field and well ahead of Land Legend who won the AJC St Leger last weekend), and then ran second to Melbourne Cup favourite, Vauban, beaten 1.5L and getting 10lb (~4.5kg) from the winner. Those two runs put him right in the mix here, but his last run tempers that just a little, beaten 6L by Adelaide River in the Paddy Power Stakes on Irish Champions Day. Has drawn gate one, won't have much choice other than to push up and settle in the front half of the field. Great chance but that draw is tricky.</p><p><b>19e. United Nations — </b><i>Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — Carleen Hefel — 50 kg</i></p><p>Now gets a run with Nonconformist coming out. Yet another one from Maher & Eustace. Three straight placings, the only one of any note is the second in the Herbert Power last weekend behind Military Mission. Lightly raced, he left the UK after winning a (weak) Derby trial last year. Chances are they haven't gotten to the bottom of him just yet, but it won't be here.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>SPEED MAP </b></p><p>Here's my best guess.</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh9AYUr251_yx75LheiQyniIrlDg5cv4vJgVgl0hU-3s-0T-5RwntSQ8FbmMzwHbeCjd2ZwP0B3uaj3Bj0VsyNzPubp0bY4R5f3LgHgBTn5gM2mtkkSOS1gydMhg6ZX4lpdSZ-G3DYZJT6-3gR9VKlk1nfNGJarf9p4hrmeDUJF87NKUAOboVezhY-9Xx0q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="1360" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh9AYUr251_yx75LheiQyniIrlDg5cv4vJgVgl0hU-3s-0T-5RwntSQ8FbmMzwHbeCjd2ZwP0B3uaj3Bj0VsyNzPubp0bY4R5f3LgHgBTn5gM2mtkkSOS1gydMhg6ZX4lpdSZ-G3DYZJT6-3gR9VKlk1nfNGJarf9p4hrmeDUJF87NKUAOboVezhY-9Xx0q=w640-h176" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p style="text-align: left;">This will be the 27th race run at Caulfield within eight days, so it's not unreasonable to think runners will start finding their way to the middle of the track by this stage, despite the track being a Good 4. There's also a chance of a shower or two on raceday. I think this will ultimately advantage those coming from off the pace much like last year. </p><p style="text-align: left;">For me it centres around <b>Gold Trip</b> - impossible to ignore his Turnbull win and his ironhorse strength last spring, and <b>Soulcombe</b>, who has looked like a spring Cups horse ever since he was gelded last year in the UK. They will sit back off the pace, move into position down the side and make their runs on the bend. GT has to carry 5kg more but he is up to the challenge. The question with Soulcombe is does he have another level to rise to? His best so fae goes very clse anyway.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>Breakup</b> is all class, this will suit him down to the ground. They won't get past him easily while the two Joseph O'Brien runners, <b>Okita Soushi</b> and <b>Valiant King</b>, will make their presence known at the business end. </p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>SELECTIONS</b></p><p style="text-align: left;">1. Gold Trip</p><p style="text-align: left;">8. Soulcombe</p><p style="text-align: left;">3. Breakup</p><p style="text-align: left;">18. Valiant King</p><p style="text-align: left;">14. Okita Soushi</p></div><p>Will also be adding Hoo Ya Mal and Duke De Sessa into my wider exotics.</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-44145046055239533862023-10-13T15:14:00.011+01:002023-10-13T15:14:59.304+01:00Caulfield Guineas preview<p>The big 'traditional' race of the weekend, the stallion-making classic worth $3m at Caulfield. The big stables are there yet there's a big boom on one from a smaller yard. We have the Blue Diamond winner, the AJC Sires & Champagne Stakes & Golden Rose winner, the JJ Atkins winner, the Stutt Stakes winner, the VRC Sires winner and the Guineas Prelude winner - it's a cracking race.</p><p><br /></p><p>==============================</p><p><b>Caulfield Guineas<br /></b><i>$3m, 1600m, Group 1<br />1710 local, 0710 UKT</i></p><p><br /></p><p><b>1. Militarize<br /></b>Chris Waller/Joao Moreira runner full of stud interests as owners. Has made remarkable progress since starting 100/1 in the Golden Slipper and finishing near last from the outside gate. Since then he has won three of four, all at Group 1: the AJC Sires Produce, the Champagne and the Golden Rose, and all with the Brazilian magic man aboard. Drawn wide but tends to start slowly and drop back anyway. Superstar colt with a great turn of foot. Watch for him to be flying late.</p><p><b>2. Little Brose<br /></b>Blue Diamond winner (at Sandown, not Caulfield) last season, is only one win from four starts at this track. Handy colt but tend to think everything fell into place in the Blue Diamond rather than him being unlucky in subsequent races. </p><p><b>3. King Colorado<br /></b>Went from a Kembla Grange maiden win to taking the $1m JJ Atkins in the winter, and was well-backed that day, from as much as $81 into $14, so there were some big collects from the believers! First-up this campaign he ran a close-up ninth in the Winx Stakes after having no room until very late, then never got into it in the Golden Rose, seventh beaten 2L. Gets the G1 miracle man Michael Dee in the saddle for the first time. Won't be far away.</p><p><b>4. Steparty<br /></b>The country-owned sensation who is unbeaten in five starts, progressing through the ranks from a Ballarat maiden to the Mitchell McKenzie Stakes and Guineas Prelude at his last two runs. A versatile colt, he can go forward or sit further back and unleash a strong finishing burst. Obviously this is his biggest test but we've yet to find his limit yet. I can see him hitting the front entering the straight, whether he can hold that to the line is the (three) million-dollar question.</p><p><b>5. Veight</b><br />Had every possible hope last time in the Prelude and couldn't finish it off. Drawn to get the cheap run here from gate one and meets most rivals from the Prelude on marginally better weight terms, but don't think he's good enough.</p><p><b>6. Griff<br /></b>Midfield in two Sydney runs before heading south to win the Exford Plate at Flemington and the Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley. Up to Group 1 level, I see him struggling, especially from the outside gate.</p><p><b>7. Scheelite<br /></b>Ran home late, from behind Steparty, for a close fourth in the Guineas Prelude, might have even got him a few strides later so the first time at 1600 can only be a plus. Drawn 13, it's highly likely he drops to the tail again which means he'll need the pace on early and I'm not sure that's going to happen. Chance with luck.</p><p><b>8. Scentify<br /></b>Had all the favours behind the leader in the Prelude, and got swamped late, beaten 0.2L by Steparty. As a son of Justify, the mile should be a positive. In the mix but don't think he's quite there yet. </p><p><b>9. Southport Tycoon<br /></b>Second in the Prelude, suffering his first defeat by a tiny margin to a very good colt. One of four from the Maher/Eustace empire, definitely not the worst of them. Drawn perfectly, can be right in the finish with luck.</p><p><b>10. Wolfy<br /></b>Arrives on the back of successive wins in a maiden and a BM64, not the strongest formline but a completely different one to the rest of the field. Likes to swoop late so the barrier won't be an issue. Has been the big tip at trackwork at Flemington all week apparently but I'm happy to pass him up.</p><p><b>11. Verdad<br /></b>Ran favourite in the Stutt Stakes off the back of a debut maiden win, finishing second off the perfect run. Should improve out of that but it will need to be a lot, especially from 14.</p><p><b>12. Rock Empire<br /></b>Likely leader, started 8.5 in the Prelude at his first run in Victoria, setting it up for the swoopers in a fast time. The Waterhouse & Bott team have persevered and brought in one of their regular jockeys, Tim Clark, who might be able to set a steadier pace. Place chance.</p><p><b>13. Limburg<br /></b>Disappointing Coolmore colt who has two placings in maidens from five starts. Pass.</p><p><b>14. Copacabana</b><br />Running placings in maidens, a nice day out for the owners.</p><p><b>15. The Longest Yard<br /></b>Absolutely none.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p>Got to go for the Sydney class over the country colt but it will be a hell of a party if Steparty gets up!</p><p><br /></p><p>Militarize</p><p>Steparty</p><p>Southport Tycoon</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-85290284253239558792023-10-12T20:18:00.001+01:002023-10-12T20:41:06.066+01:00The TAB Everest preview 2023<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The TAB Everest - the richest race in the world on turf at $20m, but that's a bit of creative accounting since everyone pays $700k for a slot...and then every runner receives a minimum of $700k in prizemoney, i.e. a refund, even for seventh to 12th. A bit like 'winning' a lower dividend on the lottery, but getting not even enough to buy a chocolate bar after your entry fee is subtracted. But hey, never let the truth get in the way of a good story, Emperor PVL!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A great race, a little curious that there's only one non-NSW runner in the field (#1) which does deny the race a bit of extra appeal, but these things are often cyclical.. or perhaps it highlights NSW's obsession with speed in their breeding. Anyhow, it's an excellent race in a new era without Nature Strip and Eduardo - bring on the new age.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO3rqOY4uRRc0mOFXWpmyej6Y7fMg6huzPIoUkHHTVWI4yP9fbUaEkBNz8OPTnQXCaZAiLuJ-7M6BUZZb4s9JXMaaVNnOPuQRYbsF_bV6s6-d96qcfZMdtmXO7YEZ8EBBoarCc-ra3KQt_Mgg4LK6b2Rg5pYTsaxpszF8caR9NictSuakMDECZmQOx34OG/s600/everest-2022..-600x518.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="600" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO3rqOY4uRRc0mOFXWpmyej6Y7fMg6huzPIoUkHHTVWI4yP9fbUaEkBNz8OPTnQXCaZAiLuJ-7M6BUZZb4s9JXMaaVNnOPuQRYbsF_bV6s6-d96qcfZMdtmXO7YEZ8EBBoarCc-ra3KQt_Mgg4LK6b2Rg5pYTsaxpszF8caR9NictSuakMDECZmQOx34OG/s320/everest-2022..-600x518.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>==============================</p><p><b>The TAB Everest</b><br /><i>AU$20m, 1200m, WFA<br />Randwick 1615 local, 0615 UK</i></p><p><br /></p><p><b>1. I Wish I Win (1)</b></p><p>Loves the big money races in Sydney, won the $10m Golden Eagle over 1500m last October and the $3.1m TJ Smith over 1200m in April. Wins going left or right, heavy or good going, 1200 up to 1500. Unplaced just once in eight runs in Australia when caught back and wide in last year's Toorak. One run this spring, a close third behind Mr Brightside in the Memsie, in what was obviously a tune-up run for this. Biggest worry for him is the inside gate, back on the rail is a big risk but he does have a strong finish to get him out of trouble.</p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ob2m5iPhPYo?si=5TdKxjT4K5xf-R4C" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>2. Private Eye (9)</b></p><p>Finished second to Giga Kick in the race last year, when second-up after his winter spell. Last year he'd won the Gilgai at Flemington in the lead-up, this year he's claimed the Shorts at Randwick (ahead of Overpass and Buenos Noches). 50% win strike rate first- and third-up, yet only 29% second-up. Bounce factor, aiming too high second-up or just a statistical anomaly? Close last year, fourth in the Newmarket just behind IWIW. In the mix.</p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lZvxgYpI3ZM?si=dkq45BPva1eRQV14" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>3. Think About It (5)</b></p><p>Stablemate of Private Eye and the new favourite after IWIW drew the fence. Outstanding record, winning 10 of 11 career starts, only beaten in a BM72 at his third start. Just this year he has progressed from restricted midweek class to being a multiple Group winner, claiming the Kingsford Smith (G1 1300m), Stradbroke (G1 1400m) and Premiere Stakes (G2 1200m) in his last three starts. Flying machine and lovely to see a great one not in the standard elite ownership groups. Narrow win over Hawaii Five Oh last time, will improve for the run, first-up after 16 wks. Prime draw in five, can sit close or even lead. </p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ndtbKn6ei_c?si=Mnhl3U5p7_apSR_4" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>4. Mazu (11)</b></p><p>The outsider of the field who has won a paltry $6.9m. Ran third in the race last year (soft track), third in the TJ Smith behind I Wish I Win (heavy) and third in the Doomben 10,000 (good) behind Giga Kick. A winner of seven races from 20 starts, only one of those has been on a dry surface. It's not that he's hopeless on dry, the wet just slows others down more than him. Drawn wide, but drew the same gate last year. Fast enough to work across to a forward position if desired.A big leap of faith to suggest he can win but could chuck a lot of value into the exotics with a placing.
</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kjuosh_LS5U?si=H26KxlHosxzLNEdQ" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>
</p><p><b>5. Overpass (2)</b></p><p>Likes chasing the cash in these new pop-up races - last season ran sixth in the Everest, ninth in the Golden Eagle, tenth in the Hunter, then he freshened up and went west for the $4m Quokka and beat Amelia's Jewel by a nose. He has continued that form with close seconds in the Doomben 10,000 (to Giga Kick) and The Shorts here a month ago (to Private Eye). Goes better fresh and loves to lead, but his 0/8 record at Randwick is a concern. Surely they'll take him on in front and not let him have a soft lead? </p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-pz5t1gL0RU?si=Mpp7V9Hht-cElQSf" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>6. Buenos Noches (8)</b></p><p>A mere pauper with only $693k prizemoney behind him from nine starts. Was just nosed out by Giga Kick in the Danehill at Flemington last year before that winner went on to win the Everest and a few other big races. Buenos Noches hasn't kicked on quite as fast, running third in the Coolmore, fifth in the Lightning and seventh in the Newmarket, all down the straight six. He's come north for this prep, winning the Show County then finishing third in the Shorts, beaten 0.66L behind Private Eye and Overpass, having needed to wait for a run from an inside position. I think he's good enough to win if the breaks go his way, but for that you need a premium on price. Not sure if 12/1 is quite enough.</p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zBCm2meDYv4?si=IACVlRZK3lKqM66j" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>7. Hawaii Five Oh (10)</b></p><p>Singo's flying machine, one of the last horses he'll ever own having sold virtually all of his thoroughbred assets off lately. And he kept hold of this one because he's damn good. A winner of the Hawkesbury Guineas and Fred Best Classic (both G3s) last autumn, he stepped into open company to finish third in the Stradbroke (behind Think About It with a 4.5kg advantage, having every chance from the box seat). This time in, he ran sixth in the Shorts but followed that up with a close second in the Premiere Stakes, just behind Think About It at weight-for-age. You'd expect the favourite will see more improvement in fitness out of that run, but with JMac aboard, he has to be in the mix.</p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IYxN--d6sY0?si=vvWTJ_GkzJVYeMc5" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>8. Alcohol Free (7)</b></p><p>Imported mare who they (Yulong) paid an eye-watering ~$10m for as a breeding prospect, but decided to have a shot at the stumps in some rich Sydney races as well. A triple Group 1 winner (Coronation Stakes, Sussex Stakes and July Cup), she was top class in the UK and should measure up here as well. So far in Australia she has drawn inside gates both times and not appeared to enjoy it. In her UK wins, she's always had plenty of space to settle and make her runs. Drawing seven and with Craig Williams (won last year on Giga Kick) aboard for the first time, she might be able to park away from the rail and have a bit more control over her race. Her form in Aus hasn't screamed 'back me' but a change of circumstance could be enough to get her into the first four at big odds.</p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EloF4fJHAOo?si=Sw5KHXTsOBb4vArb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>9. In Secret (12)</b></p><p>Flying machine who won the Coolmore Stud Stakes and Newmarket Handicap G1s at Flemington as a 3yo, and most recently hasn't had a lot of luck in two starts this preparation over slightly shorter trips. She gets an upgrade in jockey, Zac Lloyd (goes onto Cylinder) to the king of Hong Kong, Zac Purton, but he'll need to be at his brilliant best to find a good position from the outside gate. Worth noting that five of her six defeats have been at Randwick. Better suited here but a few things against her.</p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pNFrI0jXsyI?si=qWDi_4ro3KWNAvXW" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>10. Espiona (3)</b></p><p>Seemingly better at 1400-1500m, winning just once from six attempts at this trip (on her racetrack debut), and once from five at Randwick. Best form in mares class, often with weight concessions as well. Drawn well, Waller + Bowman, but can't have her at anything near this price. </p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7pmj7hxsjSQ?si=ol8MbUSWD47WsmC5" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>11. Shinzo (6)</b></p><p>Star 2yo who won the Golden Slipper last season but was only average in the Golden Rose three weeks ago, and pulled up lame. Had issues getting back to the track and needed to have a run before the Everest, but it didn't work for him. It's probably even harder now but he did trial OK a week ago. Worth a fortune for Coolmore and they are having a throw at the stumps with their slot. If he fails here, he'll be straight off to stud. No grumpy Ryan Moore aboard (no chance to make this weight), Kerrin McEvoy takes over - he's won this race three times from only six runnings.</p><p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/A3pQvwfo1UU?si=W0mGTUcpELa_8WuX" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><b>12. Cylinder (4)</b></p><p>High-quality Godolphin colt who was runner-up in the Slipper as a 2yo, and has taken a step forward as a 3yo. He was brilliant winning the Run to the Rose in early September and then got nosed out on the line in the Golden Rose a fortnight later after being caught wide without cover. He is fit and ready to go with three runs already this campaign and the 3yo weight allowance (two 3yos have won from six editions). Great chance.</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gH8LIh0OkJg?si=EUB0W1vZYtJ8mTGv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p>plus four emergencies who will have to negotiate with the slotholders of any scratched horse before getting a run.</p><p><br />
</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>For such a high value race targetted by a few breeders, it's curious that five of the six runnings have been won by geldings. Note for race promoters in Europe who like to preach the exclusive/breeding bullshit - geldings like to come back the next year and the year after to strengthen the event, rather than rush off to stud. Yes Yes Yes has been the only colt or entire to win - he had his first winner in his initial 2yo crop just last weekend. No filly or mare has won yet - they 'waited' until after Black Caviar had retired before creating the race!</p><p>Classy field, more open than most years. It'd be very easy to focus on the top three on the page but with the right luck, several others can be right in the finish. I can see Overpass leading with Mazu outside him and Cylinder right on his back. Who is behind him is critical - will it be Think About It or I Wish I Win? Someone will come around the outside and sit three wide coming off the bend, meaning Cylinder probably waits for Mazu to tire before he can squeeze through. But I think he will, and get enough of a break on those caught in traffic to pinch it. Think About It is too honest not to be in the frame while Alcohol Free is my smokey to stick on for a place.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>SELECTIONS</b></p><p>12. Cylinder</p><p>3. Think About It</p><p>8. Alcohol Free</p><p><br /></p><p><i>Backing Cylinder at around 7/1 and Alcohol Free e/w at 50/1+.</i></p><div><br /></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-89711108796151617872023-09-30T23:44:00.000+01:002023-09-30T23:44:29.850+01:002023 Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe preview<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Perhaps not an Arc for the ages but that probably makes it more competitive than usual.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimTWEmiULwFIaSotJom8rHZp5walU6uPwWqcwDjGezt3vxiL0TJQgbOMgx4ZBsQODhzBdEaDZVNhkEU_HRgLkIwqOb-R2Aoe6KQVWoYArhS6OThYPdeVhlLCJ4OL8s2uZXe7OPdckC9EXjR9fU--zN0lckwNTgCCaoQ6rReV6uD_PdMZPPmaWM0jfkEF1q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="275" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimTWEmiULwFIaSotJom8rHZp5walU6uPwWqcwDjGezt3vxiL0TJQgbOMgx4ZBsQODhzBdEaDZVNhkEU_HRgLkIwqOb-R2Aoe6KQVWoYArhS6OThYPdeVhlLCJ4OL8s2uZXe7OPdckC9EXjR9fU--zN0lckwNTgCCaoQ6rReV6uD_PdMZPPmaWM0jfkEF1q" width="240" /></a></b></div><b><br /><br /></b><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe</b><br />Group 1, no geldings, 2400m<br />16.05 local time, 15.05 UK, 01.05 Monday Melb/Sydney</span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>1. Sisfahan</b> - German-trained runner who will be happy to finish in the front half. Not won since last October. Last in the Preis von Baden recently, only piece of notable form was a second to Simca Mille in the Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten. Not a pacemaker, will just sit back and pick off any tired ones. NFH.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>2. Haya Zark</b> - wins Group 3 races in bottomless swamps. Has neither of those criteria here. Beaten 40L by Simca Mille in the Grand Prix de Chantilly, but apparently it’s important to let camels like this run in the race rather than a gelding which might interfere with the gene pool. Has anybody that staying blood is worth FA these days?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>3. Onesto</b> - ran tenth, beaten 9L (very soft), in the race last year as a 3yo. Got closer in the Japan Cup on firmer ground, less than five lengths from the winner in seventh. Just two runs this season, a nice fourth in the Jacques Le Marois (1m) but only seventh of eight in the Irish Champion (1m2f), a race he was runner-up in the year before. Not up to them this year.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>4. Simca Mille</b> - a winner of six races from only 10 starts, he brings winning form to the table (3/4 this season). The trouble is, that form looks quite a bit weaker than the top rung here. He won the Preis von Berlin last start, ahead of the aforementioned Sisfahan and the Godolphin-runner New London, who couldn’t win a Listed race at Newmarket on Friday. Will keep picking off weaker G1s and other G2s, but there’s a notable step up to this level which I can’t see him making.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>5. Bay Bridge</b> - winner of the QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot last year which entitles him to have a crack at this. The step up to 1m4f had been a concern, his previous 11 starts before winning recently at Kempton were at or around 1m2f. He won the September Stakes over this trip comfortably, but had a cosy run against weaker class. Will probably be the biggest price of his career (>10/1) and don’t think he’s quite up to this, but I said the same last year at Ascot. Some hope with an ideal draw in six.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>6. Westover</b> - Irish Derby winner who was sixth here last year as a 3yo, and has improved again this season, claiming the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1 in name only) and then the narrow defeat to Hukum in a vintage King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in late July. Regularly sweats up pre-race which may get worse with warm weather and a big crowd in Paris, but can’t affect him too much if he’s run no worse than second in four runs this year. Also ran 3.5L second to Japanese wonderhorse Equinox in Dubai back in March. Definite chance with the inside draw.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>7. Hukum</b> - huge fan of this horse and just keeps on improving. Beat Westover in a strong edition of the KG & QE Stakes, that pair clearing out well ahead of multiple G1 winners. Successful in 10 of 15 starts, he’s lightly raced for a 6yo, an age group with a rotten record here - no winners for over 100 years. But, in days gone by, staying blood meant something in the breeding sheds. These days its value is greatly diminished and this horse may still be yet to peak, so there’s fair reason for him to still be running. Drawn the car park, will take a great ride from Crowley to claim the prize.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>8. Place Du Carrousel</b> - exceptional French filly who has won five from nine. However all the defeats as a three or four year old have been in G1s - Prix Saint-Alary (second to Above The Curve), Prix Diane (tenth behind Nashwa) and the Prix Ganay (fifth behind Iresine and Simca Mille). She returned the favour against Iresine, beating three weeks ago in the Prix Foy. Andre Fabre has declared her as his Arc horse all season. Perhaps that’s because the rest of the cupboard was bare. Place chance only.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>9. Through Seven Seas</b> - on most of her form you wouldn’t look twice until her most recent run, second (neck, 55/1) to Equinox in the Takarazuka Kinem in late June. She was unlucky on that occasion, being blocked in the straight but in reality, Equinox barely got out of first gear, despite being about seven-wide on the home turn. Behind them in the field was Deep Bond (tailed off in the last two Arcs) and Vela Azul, last year’s Japan Cup winner, so this was no easy field. This makes her very hard to line up - how excited can you get over one run, which appears to be considerably better than the rest of her form. Drawn perfectly in five (historically a massive advantage to be drawn inside six) and Christophe Lemaire (regular rider of Equinox) has returned from Japan to ride her. Very interesting…</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>10. Free Wind</b> - probably Frankie’s last Arc ride. Winner of six from ten, but just one of four this season. Shouldn’t be getting beaten by Warm Heart or Sumo Sam if she wants to be competitive here.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>11. Mr Hollywood</b> - an omen bet with the Great British Bake Off starting again this week? A German colt with just five starts under his belt, all this season, with two wins on heavy tracks and three seconds on good or good-to-soft. His two most recent defeats have been in the German Derby (clearly beating the rest of the field but claimed by Fantastic Moon coming solo down the grandstand rail), and a narrow defeat to Zagrey in the Grosser Preis von Baden. Don’t dismiss German form lightly, this colt is still improving and won’t be out of place here. Worth a look each-way.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>12. Feed The Flame</b> - local colt who ran fourth (SP 5/2) in the Prix Du Jockey Club, 6.75L behind Ace Impact, won the Grand Prix de Paris (SP 11/4) ahead of Irish Derby runner-up Adelaide River and (Epsom) Oaks winner Soul Sister, and most recently ran second (SP 1/2) to Fantastic Moon in the Prix Niel, beaten a similar distance to Mr Hollywood in the German Derby. So on a price angle, I don’t see why he is the same odds as Fantastic Moon and significantly shorter than Mr Hollywood. The barrier shouldn’t make that much of a difference.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>13. Ace Impact</b> - probably the best horse ever to start his career on the Polytrack at Cagnes-sur-Mer. A winner of five from five, all this season, he has progressed from a conditions race on debut through to Group 1s, but all his races have been around the 1m2f mark. He won the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly with ease. This son of Cracksman is favourite for a reason but the last Arc winner to be successful at their first try at a mile and a half was back in 1990, that’s a tough stat to break but bear in mind for more than half that period, the French Derby equivalent was still at 2400m.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>14. Fantastic Moon</b> - German colt by Sea The Moon who has won four from six. His two defeats have been to Mr Hollywood on heavy ground in the G3 Bavarian Classic in May and the G1 Grosser Dalimayr-Preis behind Godolphin colt Nations Pride (soft ground), second on both occasions. Every time the going has had ‘good’ in the description, he has won. Gate 12 no help but he is very talented.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>15. Continuous</b> - no St.Leger winner has ever gone on to win the Arc in the same season. This Japanese-bred colt stays all day and might just be better than your average Leger winner, after all the race has really dropped in quality over recent decades. If Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore think he is up to this, you should heed the advice. Gate 7 suits, it gives him options and he might just end up going forward and trying to run them into the ground, as there is no obvious pace in the field.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Killer Stats</b> (thanks to various podcasts I’ve listened to in recent days)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br />⁃ no 6yo has won in over 100yrs of the race (although a 7yo won in the 1930s, after winning before as a 5yo)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br />⁃ The last horse to win at their first attempt at 2400m with Saumarez in 1990.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br />⁃ Inside gates dominate - 16 of the last 21 winners have been drawn eight or lower, the notable exceptions being Torquator Tasso (heavy track) and Golden Horn crossing to lead all the way from wide barriers.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br />⁃ No (English) St Leger has ever won the Arc in the same year.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><b><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Summary</span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">⁃ They say this isn’t the strongest edition of the Arc, which often means anything can happen as the bar for success is set lower. They probably all need to improve to win, but it’s not as big a reach as it might be in other years. And that could mean certain stats get thrown out the window. The top two still have no frigging hope though.<br /></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">⁃ Hard to hone in on any runner. Ace Impact could just blow them away but I have to take him on in an open race. Toss-up for me between Hukum, Through Seven Seas, Mr Hollywood and Fantastic Moon.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Bets</b></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">⁃ Mr Hollywood ew at 40/1</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">⁃ Through Seven Seas ew at 11/1</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">⁃ Box the four above in the exacta.</span><div class="yj6qo" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-27151168559792877252023-06-24T01:22:00.012+01:002023-06-24T01:26:14.810+01:00Royal Ascot Saturday preview<p> Here we go - the final day and come on the Folio!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP8xNKKmVAmUed7uJEzq7L0DBIvRl_bGgz_xy0n5WfsM3kPrjV6DXIcDTiCCn2R7HqDDf6EOzNeSUDg-X8cYtmH3G6Rb31-qpunA47_4w_BJ4m7fWUZjgZo0ik__OF8XlW58JQVNpmk9prEKxUlilZ45HcTOW1mJmQ_c12oo1M2kNw75l-7xsieQHxPDsa/s1200/first%20folio%20york.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP8xNKKmVAmUed7uJEzq7L0DBIvRl_bGgz_xy0n5WfsM3kPrjV6DXIcDTiCCn2R7HqDDf6EOzNeSUDg-X8cYtmH3G6Rb31-qpunA47_4w_BJ4m7fWUZjgZo0ik__OF8XlW58JQVNpmk9prEKxUlilZ45HcTOW1mJmQ_c12oo1M2kNw75l-7xsieQHxPDsa/w640-h336/first%20folio%20york.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b>CHESHAM</b></p><p>Lightly raced 2yos again, virtually all of them stepping up to their first try at 7f. </p><p><b>La Guarida</b> won nicely at Goodwood at her second start, running away from the field in the latter stages. I'm a big fan of the New Bay breed, she's more likely to sit up on the pace than some of her rivals.</p><p><b>Matnookh</b> was a big run on debut, she completely blew the start and then rattled home late. This is a considerable step up in class but there's underlying talent there.</p><p>Pearls And Rubies and Nemonte were both impressive on debut, running on fron back in the field. They won't be far away.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>La Guarida, Matnookh, Pearls And Rubies</p><p><br /></p><p><b>JERSEY</b></p><p>Covey looks a very good prospect but I'm not diving in to take the price given the number of favourites that have crashed and burned this week. Not convinced the form of his last win is that flash, those behind him aren't winning anything special in their careers. </p><p><b>Quan Shamar</b> looks highly talented but a bit inconsistent. He won impressively on the AW at Dundalk in April, comfortably beating Unless (fourth in the Sandringham) and then took on Paddington in the Irish 2000 Guineas, trailing him by 4.25L. Dropping back a furlong could be a good move, if he strings it altogether he's a winning chance - but would be needing double-figure odds to take the risk.</p><p><b>Streets Of Gold</b> was unbeaten in five starts as a 2yo, focusing on rich sales races rather than Pattern races. Resuming this season, he flopped in the Greenham but was promptly sent off to see the wind op doctor, and returned with a decent third at Epsom on Oaks Day, behind Olivia Maralda. He didn't appear to enjoy the undulations and unusual camber of the goat track and this could be much more to his liking at big odds.</p><p><b>Zoology</b> beat Covey when the latter made his debut, giving him 7lbs. He finished well back in fourth in the Greenham but has been given a decent break since then. If he has progressed since then, he's another who could be overpriced.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Quan Shamar, Streets Of Gold, Zoology, Covey </p><p><br /></p><p><b>QEII JUBILEE STAKES</b></p><p>The starting point here has to be the HK sprinter <b>Wellington</b>. He'd be winning just about everything in Honkers if it wasn't for a sensation called Lucky Sweynesse, who rates comparably with Nature Strip. If he's travelled without any issues, he's a huge chance.</p><p>American raider <b>Big Invasion</b> arrives with comparable form to Undrafted, who won this race in 2015. Rather than racing like a scalded cat, he likes to come from off the pace, and doesn't need as much luck as Artorius, who has immense talent but loves to find trouble in running. Big Invasion was just beaten last time out by Caravel, who won the Breeders Cup Sprint in November ahead of Emaraaty Ana, Creative Force (dec.) and Highfield Princess. The form stacks up. </p><p><b>Highfield Princess</b> is tough, she might have won on Tuesday if she wasn't hampered by Bradsell. The plan was always to run her twice, she'll go very close to winning.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Big Invasion, Wellington, Highfield Princess</p><p><br /></p><p><b>HARDWICKE</b></p><p>I couldn't make up my mind whether this was a disappointing field for this G2 or not. Then you look closely and find three proper G1 horses at the top of the market.</p><p><b>Hukum</b> is super-consistent. If it wasn't for his brother Baaeed, he'd classed as a proper star. He's won 9 of 14, and in his last two runs, he has conclusively beaten Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup last season, and then the Derby winner Desert Crown in the Brigadier Gerard after a year off. This is his race.</p><p><b>Pyledriver</b> won the King George last season but keeps having injury issues and missing large chunks of the season. He's first up since winning the cream of the British middle-distance races for the older brigade, but did finish 4.25L behind the aforementioned Hukum the start before.</p><p><b>Free Wind</b> has won six of her last seven, all in female company, and now faces a tougher task against proven Group 1 winners. The Frankie factor (four winners this week) won't help her price, I don't think she's quite up to the best of these if they can race to their peaks. I'll be taking her on but I think she can still run a place.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Hukum, Pyledriver, Free Wind</p><p><br /></p><p><b>WOKINGHAM</b></p><p>Bias alert!!</p><p>I'm a part-owner of <b>First Folio</b> via the Owners Group microsyndicate, so I have no choice other than to put the mighty grey on top. He gave us a hell of a thrill when he ran a bold sixth in the race last year off the same mark. This time we put the visor on him, and claim 5lbs via the very useful Taylor Fisher. He's drawn nicely in the middle and if you are prepared to forgive his last run (the vet found soreness in his back), then he's in the mix. Personally, I think he needs to go to the front as he lacks acceleration, but he can go pretty quick and keep it going. </p><p>A few others I will throw in some exotics with him:</p><p><b>Duca Di Como</b> - this Swedish runner has some solid form and will no doubt be completely dismissed by most British punters. He's a bit better than Good Eye who ran fourth in the Stewards' Cup last year at Goodwood at 150/1.</p><p><b>Lethal Levi</b> - loves a big handicap on a firm track, just went down to Bielsa last time after hating the softer ground at Newmarket.</p><p><b>Tanmawwy</b> - has two blips in his past three, both on wet ground. Ignoring those, he's been close in his other three most recent runs. I do wonder about his two Ascot failures last summer but I'm prepared to take a risk at a big price with James McDonald taking the ride.</p><p><b>Juan Les Pins</b> down the bottom loves frim ground and can sneak into a place.</p><p>I've backed Probe successfully before but am concerned about the surface, needs proper cut in the ground.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>First Folio, Tanmawwy, Juan Les Pins, Lethal Levi, Duca Di Como</p><p><br /></p><p><b>GOLDEN GATES</b></p><p>Can't say much research has gone into this one. <b>Burdett Road</b> won impressively last time and looks a crazy price compared to some of his rivals. <b>Cuban Dawn</b> changed hands a few days ago and was purchased by a syndicate to run for Gai Waterhouse in Australia. He's yet to break his maiden but debuted in a Listed race behind Paddington and went close in his other two runs. Stepping up to 1m2f should suit him perfectly. </p><p>One at a daft price might be <b>Lose Your Wad</b>. Three starts back he beat Royal Cape, who most recently ran second behind Covey who is the prohibitive favourite in the Jersey. Since then he's run at Chester and Epsom and hated both courses. It's a bit of a reach to suggest he'll bounce back here but you get a fair premium on the price for that optimism.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Burdett Road, Cuban Dawn, Lose Your Wad</p><p><br /></p><p><b>QUEEN ALEXANDRA</b></p><p>Surprisingly only 10 in the plodders' race, which makes it easier to process.</p><p><b>Goshen</b> is another of these erratic talents who can be brilliant or awful on any given day but I'm happy to take around 16/1 on those terms.</p><p><b>Run For Oscar</b> won the Cesarewitch last season, he's had numerous jumps runs in winter and then it looks as if he's been set for this. Underestimate Charles Byrnes at your peril.</p><p><b>Typewriter</b> has always promised to be a useful stayer, here's her chance over an extreme distance in a small field.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Goshen, Run For Oscar, Typewriter</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-9443331332565345462023-06-23T01:12:00.002+01:002023-06-23T01:12:18.969+01:00Royal Ascot Friday preview<p>A complete wipeout on Thursday with the day bookended by 150/1 and 50/1 winners. Bookies in clover!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRTFA69-6_4DowTC9H-pdgzJFf5oypRjSoGKvAfjEjJ29TfeNPY2oXL0uMdD29erCoHZVyj5ZyYeRpm6xH4WpZZTGshM2LdJRr4sXVWlxMTsVaRf9QS1EjiSRFtA0PsmLe55GIV2vfofhVozmowPd1otiOtvPR4vZX3UqRlpvydJi_MfWPbPwohk_GrXPW/s630/without_parole_gustav_klimt_tip_two_win_wootton_st_jamess_palace_royal_ascot_630_x_3780.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="378" data-original-width="630" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRTFA69-6_4DowTC9H-pdgzJFf5oypRjSoGKvAfjEjJ29TfeNPY2oXL0uMdD29erCoHZVyj5ZyYeRpm6xH4WpZZTGshM2LdJRr4sXVWlxMTsVaRf9QS1EjiSRFtA0PsmLe55GIV2vfofhVozmowPd1otiOtvPR4vZX3UqRlpvydJi_MfWPbPwohk_GrXPW/w640-h384/without_parole_gustav_klimt_tip_two_win_wootton_st_jamess_palace_royal_ascot_630_x_3780.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>ALBANY STAKES</b></p><p>Some very fast fillies in here, with quite a few unbeaten from one or two starts. On figures from UK races, Carla's Way, Jabaara and Soprano set the standard with a trio of Irish fillies - Matrika, Navassa Island and Porta Fortuna, representing a strong visiting contingent. Of that group, it's the one runner who hasn't yet won a race that I most like.</p><p><b>Navassa Island</b> was a huge run at Naas, motoring home late to just be denied against Porta Fortuna. She is a half-sister to the G1-winner Lazoo who runs later in the Commonwealth Cup. Like Carla's Way, she was an expensive breeze-up purchase who has been aimed at early success.</p><p><b>Jabaara</b> really knuckled down well at Newmarket when given full rein while <b>Flaccianello</b> might be yet another Amo Racing juvenile with talent. She didn't have much idea what she was doing at Catterick and still won, despite being ridden by Cam Hardie who rides winners about as regularly as every full moon. The jockey taking over, Rossa Ryan, already has two winners this week despite just one of his 12 rides at Royal Ascot starting at under 20/1. His winners started at 22/1 and 150/1 with placings at 20/1 and 50/1 - that is a jockey riding way above market expectations.<br /><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Navassa Island, Flaccaniello, Jabaara, Porta Fortuna</p><p><br /></p><p><b>COMMONWEALTH CUP</b></p><p><b>Little Big Bear</b> will be the banker of the week for many, a winner of five from seven with his only failure being the 2000 Guineas where he didn't stay, didn't appreciate the tacky ground and pulled up sore. He won the Sandy Lane at Haydock easily when dropping back to 6f, ahead of Shouldvebeenaring (an eased down 1.25L) and a further 8L ahead of King's Stand winner Bradsell. Should be too good for them, but we've seen shorter-priced fancies get toppled this week.</p><p>Another runner whose only failure was a dead last behind Chaldean is the Julie Camacho-trained <b>Shaquille</b>. This colt has surged up the ratings this season with two impressive wins at Newmarket and Newbury respectively. Swap him into a high-profile stable and he'd be half the price here.</p><p><b>Lezoo</b> had an impeccable record going into the 1000 Guineas but didn't stay so connection have dropped her back to 6f, a distance she won the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes ahead of Meditate, and just failed to Mawq in the Duchess of Cambridge during the July Festival. She is very quick and can be right in the mix here.</p><p><b>Marbaan</b> could be a smokey at a big price - he ran second in an all-age Listed race recently at Salisbury, just behind Run To Freedom and ahead of talented sprinters such as Khaadem, Sandrine and Rohaan - all of whom are in Platinum Jubilee on Saturday.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Little Big Bear, Marbaan, Shaquille, Lezoo</p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>DUKE OF EDINBURGH</b></p><p><b>Teumessias Fox</b> looks a worthy favourite, winning both starts this season quite comfortably. This full brother to Zabeel Prince (and half-brother to Puissance de Lune) can continue on his merry way.</p><p><b>HMS President</b> looks to have improved a few lbs for leaving Eve Johnston Houghton for Alan King. Or perhaps it's just that man Rossa Ryan aboard. A win and a second in his two starts in the new stable see him at a career-high mark. He could sneak into the frame at big odds.</p><p><b>Al Nafir</b> went chasing the rich 3yo staying handicaps last season and finally cracked one on October, the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket, beating at least a couple of these rivals. He went off for the 'snip' after that and resumes here, off a mark of 10lbs higher. This looks like a target race.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Teumessias Fox, HMS President, Al Nafir</p><p><br /></p><p><b>CORONATION STAKES</b></p><p>Surely <b>Tahiyra</b> can't be beaten here? Her only defeat was a close second to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, a long way clear of the rest of the field. <b>Meditate</b> couldn't go with her in the Irish equivalent and there's no real reason to expect that result to be overturned.</p><p><b>Queen For You</b> has just the two runs under her belt and is regally-bred, while Mammas Girl was impressive in a Guineas trial but then perhaps didn't handle the tacky ground at Newmarket.</p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Tahiyra, Queen For You, Meditate, Mammas Girl</p><p><br /></p><p><b>SANDRINGHAM</b></p><p>Plenty of chances in this devilish fillies' handicap. </p><p><b>Unless</b> looks the right place to start, royally bred by US Triple Crown winner Justify out of a G1-winning full sister to Churchill. It took her seven races to break her maiden after a string of seconds, but she might just be the type to take a big step forward now she has tasted success. Wayne Lordan takes the ride so she's either stable second string or Ryan Moore wasn't too keen on riding at 8st8.</p><p>I'll stay down the bottom of the field with <b>Marksman Queen</b> who suffered her first defeat last time out. She looks to have plenty of scope to improve.</p><p><b>Eximious</b> for Roger Varian is another lightly-raced type with great scope to improve. She resumed a fortnight ago with a close second at Newbury, a bigger field should enable her to make her move late in proceedings off a much lighter burden,</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Unless, Marksman Queen, Eximious</p><p><br /></p><p><b>KING EDWARD VII</b></p><p><b>Arrest</b>'s run in the Derby was too bad to be true. He started favourite but sweated up, went too hard too soon and sprung a plate. Expect better back on a flatter track.</p><p><b>King Of Steel</b> was an enormous run in the Derby but I wouldn't go jumping all over him at the price based on a small sample size and erratic gate manners.</p><p><b>Dubai Mile</b> also ran a shocker in the Derby, could be better suited here.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Arrest, King Of Steel, Dubai Mile</p><p><br /></p><p><b>PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE</b></p><p>Good luck deciphering this one, can make a case for most of the field. A few at the bottom have strong chances - <b>Conquistador</b> has won both starts since being transferred to George Boughey and gelded, beating Radio Goo Goo on Boxing Day (has since won five of next six starts), and Kerdos who reopposes here.</p><p><b>Tawalla</b> needed a win at Kempton last start to get into the field, after taking his maiden at Ripon the time before. He knuckled down well to fight off all challengers, there's more to come from him. </p><p><b>Rocket Rodney</b> was just beaten by Little Big Bear in the Windsor Castle last season, a return to this track could see him return to his peak 2yo form which would put him right in this race. </p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Conquistador, Tawalla, Rocket Rodney</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-92191912774318217122023-06-22T09:50:00.003+01:002023-06-22T09:54:37.314+01:00Royal Ascot Thursday<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgom61lOKJjm9FRZPAXlU6-9zUWYS9mmO5F1czmSCamGUqEhniRjDhuwgjZKabx-8jXXg2K0zX1Zu5CrmZTbRUo39rQhU_CWPV0Cm-SV2eklroryZ1n5P2Cplw7VpvVVD-7AtGRJMxwv-5Q3Vm9BugLM3lm4h2XIV5qKm7dhjkNhST6SHFwjp1sASh7ski_/s1000/The-Wolferton-Handicap-Stakes-_300518.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="1000" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgom61lOKJjm9FRZPAXlU6-9zUWYS9mmO5F1czmSCamGUqEhniRjDhuwgjZKabx-8jXXg2K0zX1Zu5CrmZTbRUo39rQhU_CWPV0Cm-SV2eklroryZ1n5P2Cplw7VpvVVD-7AtGRJMxwv-5Q3Vm9BugLM3lm4h2XIV5qKm7dhjkNhST6SHFwjp1sASh7ski_/w640-h406/The-Wolferton-Handicap-Stakes-_300518.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />Rogue Millennium made day two a better day... onwards and upwards!<br /><br /><p></p><p><b>NORFOLK STAKES</b></p><p>I think we can narrow this one down to the two favourites - <b>American Rascal</b> is a son of Lady Aurelia, a dual Royal Ascot winner and probably the best horse Wesley Ward has brought to Europe. On debut at Keeneland in April, he sat just off the pace and careered away, winning by a very easy 10.5L. The Yanks are off the mark with Crimson Advocate on Wednesday, and could easily make it two here.</p><p><b>Elite Status</b> is the best of the local hopes. He's two from two winning his maiden at Doncaster followed by a 5L romp at Sandown in the National Stakes. Sheikh Mohd Obaid Al Maktoum had two winners at juicy prices on Tuesday, but this is the one they'd have come into the week expecting to be their best hope.</p><p>One at odds to consider for exotics - <b>The Fixer</b>. This French colt struck a dry track for the first time at Chantilly a fortnight ago and won the Listed Prix la Fleche easing down on the line, ahead of a couple of decent British runners.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>American Rascal, Elite Status, The Fixer</p><p><br /></p><p><b>KING GEORGE V</b></p><p>Tough 3yo staying handicap with Aussie buyers waiting in the wings looking for a Melbourne Cup hopeful. </p><p>Unsurprisingly, given the Aussie angle, I'm going with <b>STRUTH(!)</b>. This season he resumed with a handicap win at Chester, then finished 2L behind Saint George in a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster earlier this month, giving the winner (who ran second in the Queen's Vase on Wed) seven pounds. He is an out-and-out stayer and this race suits him perfectly.</p><p><b>Wonder Legend</b> bolted in under a tight hold at Doncaster back in late April, and there's a formline there indirectly comparing him favourably against the Appleby favourite. An extra furlong is only going to be in his favour. </p><p>Ralph Beckett trained the 1-2 in the Royal Hunt Cup and <b>Davideo</b> is his next handicap runner. The regally-bred colt won a Newmarket maiden with ease a month ago, in his first start for the season. He looks the type to have much more up his sleeve.</p><p><b>Cloudbreaker</b> gets in light and has some handy form, stepping up another furlong might put her in the frame for exotics.</p><p><b>Tagabawa</b> looks too short for a horse yet to race on turf. Note the Appleby stable is back in form - but everywhere other than Royal Ascot, so far at least.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Struth, Wonder Legend, Davideo, Cloudbreaker</p><p><br /></p><p><b>RIBBLESDALE</b></p><p>This could be a procession. <b>Al Asifah</b> is a supplemented entry but could well be the best filly in the country after just two starts. She won a Listed race by 6.5L at Goodwood without raising a sweat last week, after a similar success on debut at Haydock. Can she handle three races in a month? She's not exactly been tested in those runs so I can't see why not. She's just 5/1 for the King George in late July, regarded as the WFA championship of Britain. This girl is very, very good.</p><p><b>Maman Joon</b> ran a great fourth in the Oaks at just her second start. I doubt that was a fluke, she is a half-sister to two Royal Ascot winners over this trip and should only get better with experience. </p><p><b>Crown Princesse</b> could be underrated. She has handy French form but made an interesting decision to come here rather than run in the Prix Diane last weekend. She is yet to run on a dry track, perhaps she could step forward for that?</p><p>Warm Heart and Midnight Mile are amongst others with a chance of picking up place prizemoney.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Al Asifah, Maman Joon, Crown Princesse</p><p><br /></p><p><b>GOLD CUP</b></p><p>The staying championship of Europe is wide open this year, with no obvious heir apparent now that Stradivarius has retired. The top eight in the betting all have claims: </p><p><b>Coltrane</b> won the Ascot Stakes handicap here last year and the Doncaster Cup, but has come up just short in the Lonsdale and Long Distance Cups, the latter in the week when his namesake had passed away so I thought he was an absolute moral. Frustratingly, he went down by a head to Trueshan.</p><p><b>Eldar Eldarov</b> won the St Leger last year but was beaten in the Yorkshire Cup last month, although the figures say it was a career best.</p><p><b>Emily Dickinson</b> represents Ballydoyle who have a great record in the race, but her only wins of note have been in deep ground. Her record in ground that is at least good reads 05152436. Can't have her at any price.</p><p><b>Courage Mon Ami</b> is the new kid on the block, recently bought for new Qatari owners, he is unbeaten in three starts, but in much weaker company so far.</p><p><b>Yibir</b> has always been a horse who flatters to deceive for me. He normally races around the mile and a half trip, this is a significant step up in trip at this stage of his career. </p><p><b>Subjectivist</b> won this race two years ago and looked set to take over the staying ranks but had 20 months off due to injury. He returned in the rich gulf state races in February and March, but didn't get that close. At his peak he'd be right in this.</p><p><b>Echoes In Rain</b> is a talented dual-code mare who ran some great races in the big Flat handicaps in Ireland last summer, but she has never run on ground this firm. Never discount Willie Mullins.</p><p>While Broome and Trueshan have been around for years, picking up lower Group races regularly and the odd G1. They'll run their usual honest races and it's worth noting Trueshan has recently had wind surgery.</p><p>Now the hard part...</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>A lot will depend on price come raceday but I'll probably lean to Coltrane. He's crossed the line in front three times (from three) on good-to-firm ground, but lost one in the testing lab. Eldar Eldarov should be right in the mix while if Subjectivist is fully fit, he's a great chance.</p><p>Coltrane, Eldar Eldarov, Subjectivist</p><p><br /></p><p><b>BRITANNIA</b></p><p>Another candidate for hardest race of the week. Pace runners tend to be profitable in this race so I'll put in <b>Saxon King</b> for Charlie Hills. This horse had to win last weekend to earn a weight penalty to get into the field and ticked that box, making it three wins from his last four. He's drawn the outside and with a couple of other pacey runners out there, he won't necessarily need to lead. </p><p><b>Surely Not</b> looks a straight mile specialist under a cold ride. He travels sweetly, just needs to find the gaps at the right time to be in the finish. He's won both runs since being gelded and looks good enough for the rise in class.</p><p>The French raider <b>Bless</b> might catch a few off guard here. He has form through some of the best of the French 3yos (beaten a nose by Marhaba Ya Sanafi who later won the French version of the 2000 Guineas) and looks nicely treated at the weights. </p><p>A real smokey might be <b>Dark Thirty</b>. He has form through several of these rivals, looks reasonably treated at the weights and will be a ridiculous price.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Wide open with many chances but I'm going with</p><p>Saxon King, Surely Not, Bless, Dark Thirty, Racingbreaks Ryder</p><p><br /></p><p><b>HAMPTON COURT</b></p><p><b>Drumroll</b> ran a close second to Paddington in early May before being awarded a G3 at the Curragh (originally beaten a nose). Expecting him to come on for that run and keep improving, he is an absolute blue-blood.</p><p><b>Canberra Legend</b> looked the real deal before flopping in the Dante at York. Prepared to forgive that run and give him another chance, especially at the price.</p><p>The three down the bottom all have a shot, Torito avoided the Derby but looks a likely type coming through the grades, while Waipiro and Caernarfon ran well in the Derby and Oaks respectively. Exoplanet looks like another of the Sheikh Obaid horses this week with plenty of talent.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT<br /></b>Drumroll, Canberra Legend, Torito, Caernarfon</p><p><br /></p><p><b>BUCKINGHAM PALACE</b></p><p><br /></p><p>Roger Varian has a handy one here in <b>Lir Speciale</b>, winning three of his past four. His last two wins at Kempton have left a bit up his sleeve and he's versatile in where he can park during a race.</p><p><b>Northern Express</b> loves big race handicaps, he was just beaten by Croupier at York last time and has every chance to reverse that here at a better price. Jockey Paul Mulrennan has been on a bit of a barren streak but has ridden a couple of winners this week at lesser venues.</p><p>So many chances amongst the others. I'll ignore Montassib as he has eaten my money on numerous occasions, Vafortino is very honest but now loses the benefit of Benoit De La Sayette's claim, Bopedro can show up in a big handicap, Accidental Agent won a Queen Anne a few years back and this is a big drop in class despite his age, Biggles and Croupier are obvious chances but tightly priced consdering the size of the field, while Spanish Star and Redarna are getting long in the tooth but can hit the frame at odds.<br /><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT<br /></b>Lir Speciale, Northern Express, Bopedro, Biggles</p><p><br /></p><p>Throwing in a French each-way trixie</p><p>The Fixer, Crown Princesse and Bless all at decent prices</p><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-83273352288323732352023-06-21T08:20:00.006+01:002023-06-21T08:20:56.608+01:00Royal Ascot Wednesday preview<p>Close but no cigar for me on day one. I did flag a couple up in the placings (including Bradsell), well done if you backed any of those.<br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhskK7vKNhqiBfr8GWobXjA8yZHOF71ImiWcLfI3p-I29RLB1D3TFWomrKdZJuWlkUxj87EdDCx_49fTHB_Ted39ScFGAf-QuFQDhwJ7L2ard4XdGOQMdQ_cVPCkX9f3aGp329okiE1pYfd9Ci-4n4EVISZKmlm3fBqoJPHfGmVKw07mCqKh5Lxiz9SVHr-/s1220/royal%20ascot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="1220" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhskK7vKNhqiBfr8GWobXjA8yZHOF71ImiWcLfI3p-I29RLB1D3TFWomrKdZJuWlkUxj87EdDCx_49fTHB_Ted39ScFGAf-QuFQDhwJ7L2ard4XdGOQMdQ_cVPCkX9f3aGp329okiE1pYfd9Ci-4n4EVISZKmlm3fBqoJPHfGmVKw07mCqKh5Lxiz9SVHr-/w640-h374/royal%20ascot.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b>QUEEN MARY</b></p><p>Tricky race to start with 28 lightly-raced fillies and most of the favoured runners are drawn the grandstand rail, which seemed to be the slower side on day one.</p><p>Balsam, Beautiful Diamond, Bundchen, Crimson Advocate, Cynane, Got To Love A Grey, Juniper Berries, Midnight Affair and Relief Rally are all drawn 14 and above. It might mean nothing (the last nine editions have had winners drawn high) but I'd at least want to back one or two in the lower half of the draw.</p><p><b>Born To Rock</b>, drawn here in 12, won sweetly on debut at Yarmouth but the form hasn't amounted to much, with disappointing next runs from the three immediately behind her, while <b>Gaiden</b>, drawn 10, has run nice placings behind Relief Rally and Got To Love A Grey, and it wouldn't take a big step forward (or better luck) to overturn those placings. At 28/1, she's worth a look each-way. <b>Out Of The Stars</b> could have more in the tank, she missed the start badly on debut at Kempton and still won. Archie Watson, who trained a winner and a second on Tuesday, both at this sort of price, applies the cheekpieces to focus her mind on the job.</p><p>Of those on the high side of the draw, there's at least plenty of speed there with the three American fillies. <b>Juniper Berries</b> caught my eye in her two runs to date - she bolted in at Bath on debut, then refused to settle when favoured in a small field at Salisbury and still ran a courageous second. In a big field full of pace here, she should be much better suited. Trainer Eve Johnston Houghton can win this type of race, she took out the Windsor Castle with Chipotle two years ago, and there's a decent price to be had.</p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Good luck deciphering this one. Take at least one on each side and give yourself a chance, if there is any sort of draw advantage to be had. </p><p>Born To Rock, Gaiden, Juniper Berries, Out Of The Stars</p><p><br /></p><p><b>KENSINGTON PALACE</b></p><p>A big field of fillies & mares, with the handicap factor to complicate matters more. </p><p><b>Adelaise</b> was a big run last time at Curragh in a Premier Handicap, she was blocked until late and flew home to ran third, behind Dunum, a leading chance in the Royal Hunt Cup later on the programme. Her talent is undisputed, it's ger running style that worries me. Slow to start, gets back, needs luck. Not one to back at short prices in a big field handicap. </p><p>Her stablemate <b>Yerwanthere</b> won her first two starts then ran into constant trouble in a Listed race at Naas, running seventh, just ahead of Villanova Queen who found her own trouble. Talented, but again, a bit risky in a big field. Gets the services of champion Kiwi jockey James McDonald..</p><p>Completing the possible stable trifecta is <b>Indian Wish</b> who carries more weight but might be the best of the lot. A recent purchase from France, she was close up in a small field on her Irish debut then won a Listed race impressively at Gowran Park last time. Not sure who got first pick here or whether it came down to relative weights, but Declan McDonogh on a normal week would get first choice.</p><p><b>Crystal Caprice</b> is always well supported but last time at Ayr she finished behind Angels Wrath at level weights. That horse ran 2.5L second behind Indian Wish, also at level weights, the start before. Thus the price anomaly (7/1 Crystal Caprice, 16/1 Indian Wish) makes no sense.</p><p><b>Tamarama</b> will have the Frankie factor which wasn't a plus on day one. She ran terribly last year in the Sandringham but has won twice on AW since. Not at the price.</p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>Could it be the Joseph O'Brien trifecta? Keen on the outsider of the three, she's earned her weight and the awkward draw pushes her price out a bit. It's generally not such a bad thing on the round course, gives her room to get out.</p><p>Indian Wish EW, Adelaise, Yerwanthere</p><p><br /></p><p><b>DUKE of CAMBRIDGE</b></p><p>Oh yay, another fillies' & mares' race.</p><p>Not much to go on here, seems to be queries on all of them, whether it is distance, time off, winning strike rate or the difference between their runs on AW and turf. </p><p>One which may surprise at a decent price is <b>Rogue Millennium</b>, dropping down to a mile for the first time. Jumbly probably wins but on the short side.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT<br /></b>Rogue Millennium, Jumbly, Prosperous Voyage</p><p><br /></p><p><b>PRINCE OF WALES</b></p><p>Aidan O'Brien has got his stars firing and this is the best of his older brigade. <b>Luxembourg</b> won the G1 Irish Champion Stakes last October and then won the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup three weeks ago. He might not have won the classics like his connections initially hoped, but he has staked his claim as a damn good older horse over this distance.</p><p>Bay Bridge, Adayar and My Prospero ran the trifecta in the British Champions Stakes last October while Mostahdaf can poke his nose up into the frame on his best.</p><p><b>VERDICT<br /></b>Luxembourg, Bay Bridge, Adayar</p><p><br /></p><p><b>ROYAL HUNT CUP</b></p><p>It doesn't get any easier. No detailed analysis here, you can make cases for all of them if you are prepared to forgive certain gaps in their form.</p><p>My darts landed on</p><p><b>VERDICT<br /></b>Ghaly, Dunum, Koy Koy, Dawn Of Liberation, Perotto</p><p><br /></p><p><b>QUEEN'S VASE</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, Aidan has them firing this week so top pick here will be Peking Opera, son Joseph has a strong hand while never underestimate a Johnston 3yo stepping up in trip.</p><p><b>VERDICT<br /></b>Peking Opera, Etna Rosso, Hadrianus</p><p><br /></p><p><b>WINDSOR CASTLE</b></p><p>Not as up to date on 2yo form as in previous years, will be catching up during the day.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Two to definitely be on - Indian Wish and Gaiden each-way at big prices. </p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-56842649908490196862023-06-20T01:24:00.003+01:002023-06-20T01:26:11.602+01:00Royal Ascot Day 1 preview<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2ABq1qewa0H9LWMamYjKenchyZClVsC-zmx7xuqnhTU_UAouIbNyIvd0bs9Txr_X5iJiAkk62as-kzSGlPe9P5x6f0VPWsjZHaJDmp7Joeydpihw3_cMo5v_k_th4B9YapGku9z_UsCkGT-cqw19iy0Tq6kpesX6TWhvt7rgV1EANe04olvjeqykclLJj/s1600/ASCOT-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1074" data-original-width="1600" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2ABq1qewa0H9LWMamYjKenchyZClVsC-zmx7xuqnhTU_UAouIbNyIvd0bs9Txr_X5iJiAkk62as-kzSGlPe9P5x6f0VPWsjZHaJDmp7Joeydpihw3_cMo5v_k_th4B9YapGku9z_UsCkGT-cqw19iy0Tq6kpesX6TWhvt7rgV1EANe04olvjeqykclLJj/w640-h430/ASCOT-1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The money will be for Frankie Dettori all week in his last Royal Ascot meeting - will he scare the hell out of the bookies with the accas liability, or just make a lot of horses far too short in the betting?</div><div><br /></div><p></p><p><b><u>QUEEN ANNE</u></b></p><p><b>Angel Bleu</b> - been around awhile, better on soft ground, not up to these.</p><p><b>Berkshire Shadow</b> - strong Royal Ascot record, won the Coventry as a 2yo (11/1) and beaten less than 2L in the St James' Palace last year (28/1). Has more race fitness this season than most, winning twice in lower grade then ran third in the Lockinge behind Modern Games. Goes well here, place chance at big odds.</p><p><b>Cash</b> - beaten 3/4L by Chindit when resuming last month then stepped out to 1m2f in the Brigadier Gerard and was beaten almost 6L behind Hukum. Back to his right distance here but would need a big step forward.</p><p><b>Chindit</b> - flying this campaign, winning first up at Ascot six weeks ago then ran second in the Lockinge. Record at Ascot is 14511 with the two defeats both at this meeting. Honest but struggles in elite class.</p><p><b>Light Infantry</b> - loves racing against the very best, but finds it tough to break through. Since winning his first two starts, he has raced in the 2000 Guineas (9th, beaten 6.75L), 2nd (1.25L_ in the Prix Jean Prat, 2nd (nk) in the Prix Jacques La Marois, 6th (2L) in the Golden Eagle, 3rd (3L) in G2 Bet365 Mile, 7th (3.75L) in the Lockinge and 2nd (sht nk) in the Prix d'Ispahan. Prefers cut in the ground, will need rain plus luck to be in the finish here.</p><p><b>Lusail</b> - Ryan Moore's choice. Won four times as a 2yo, hasn't seen the winner's circle since. Beaten a head in the St James' Palace here last year, he's finished behind Chindit in both his runs this season.</p><p><b>Modern Games</b> - impressive win in the G1 Lockinge last month, after failing at 4/9 on a US raid in April. The Lockinge win was the best RPR of his career, even exceeding the Breeders' Cup Mile win last November. After a dry spell in May, the Appleby yard are firing, landing 35% winners in the past fortnight.</p><p><b>Mutasaabeq</b> - left Native Trail for dead at Newmarket in the Bet365 Mile but couldn't back that up in the Lockinge a fortnight later, trailing Modern Games home by 3L. Perhaps that was the bounce (second-up) factor. Has a shot.</p><p><b>Native Trail</b> - Irish 2000 Guineas winner last season who failed in the Juddmonte last season and was sent off for a wind operation. After a long break, he resumed in the G2 Bet365 Mile but could only finish 3L behind Mutasaabeq. He's considerably better than that, some horses needed a second run before having full trust in their breathing again after a wind op. Stable second string, but only a single RPR pt behind Modern Games on best performances. </p><p><b>Pogo</b> - went to the Gulf chasing the big winter coin but ran terribly. Better than that but not up to them in a G1.</p><p><b>Triple Time</b> - being tipped by a few at a big price. Lightly raced and had progressed at every start until diving into the Prix Daniel Wildenstein last time at Longchamp, finishing well behind Erevann on a rather wet track. Was well backed at odds before the Lockinge, but was taken out on the day. The upside is the breeding, closely related to the likes of Cape Byron and Third Realm, but by supersire Frankel. Needs big step forward but the stable like aiming him at big targets.</p><p><b>Inspiral</b> - Frankie & Gosden. Beaten only twice, in the Falmouth (at 1/7!!) and the QEII Mile on Champions Day. The best of the female miling division, but is she up to the males? Only just beat Light Infantry in the G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois. Only gets 3lb, I can't have her as favourite. </p><p><b>VERDICT </b>- Race probably goes to Modern Games but I'll be having something on <b>Mutasaabeq</b>. If you treat his last run as a bounce, then he's a silly price here.</p><p>Mutasaabeq, Modern Games, Native Trail</p><p><br /></p><p><b><u>COVENTRY STAKES</u></b></p><p>Too many runners here to do all of them but there's a huge boom on two of these colts - <b>Asadna</b> for George Boughey and River Tiber for Aidan O'Brien. The former bolted in at Ripon by a dozen lengths, beating not a lot, but running very fast time. William Buick retains the ride which sounds great but also means Godolphin don't have any runners here. He's drawn 17 so he probably gets a nice strip of fast ground on the grandstand rail. The sectional timing boys wouldn't hear of him beaten but there was a rumour over the weekend of him not taking his place here. Worth risking?</p><p><b>River Tiber</b> is by one of the rare Coolmore stallions who didn't race for them, in Wootton Bassett, so a top-grade colt would be a huge advertisement for the gun sire. His two wins in Ireland have been very impressive, showing great acceleration to put races away. Aidan O'Brien has won this race nine times, beginning way back in 1997.</p><p>Is it that simple? It may well be, but there are whispers around for a few more.<b> Givemethebeatboys</b> was sold on Monday night for £1.1m at the Ascot sales, a huge result for an £11k yearling. He's been underestimated at both starts so far, winning narrowly at 12/1 and 11/1 respectively. The Frankie factor has crunched his price way beyond any value.</p><p><b>Army Ethos</b> is from the same connections as last year's winner Bradsell. He won comfortably at Ayr on debut and can't be ruled out.</p><p><b>Emperor's Son</b> showed great maturity to win on debut at Carlisle after copping a huge bump coming out of the gates. Might be worth a look each-way.</p><p><b>Watch My Tracer</b> down the bottom won nicely at Yarmouth on debut, knuckling down under pressure to see off a pair of well-fancied rivals. One for exotics.</p><p><b>VERDICT</b> - River Tiber, Army Ethos, Emperor's Son, Watch My Tracer.</p><p><br /></p><p><b><u>KING'S STAND</u></b></p><p><b>Coolangatta</b> - Australian flying machine, unbeaten in three starts on the dry, and winner of five out of eight overall (defeats on good-to-soft, soft and heavy). She is very quick!</p><p>Manaccan is being tipped by a few - this time last year he ran fifth in the Palce of Holyroodhouse, a 5f handicap later in the meeting. And now he's supposed to win a G1? Puhlease!</p><p><b>Highfield Princess</b> is the obvious danger to the Aussie filly, she had brilliant season last year winning a bunch of races including the G1 Nunthorpe and G1 Flying Five over this trip. Four starts here for a win in the Buckingham Palace (2021), a close third in a Listed race, and two close-up sixths in the Champion Sprint and Platinum Jubilee respectively. </p><p><b>Bradsell</b> won the Coventry on this day last year but has disappointed over 6f in two runs this season. Dropping back a furlong might work in his favour as he travelled nicely into both races but then found little under pressure.</p><p><b>Dramatised</b> has run one poor race in her career, when she tried 6f last season. She beat several of these in the Temple Stakes at Haydock a few weeks ago and has drawn the outside rail.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b> - One for the fillies and mares:</p><p>Coolangatta, Dramatised, Highfield Princess</p><p><br /></p><p><b><u>ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES</u></b></p><p><b>Chaldean</b> is pure class and should be winning this to go with his 2000 Guineas and Dewhurst G1s. But this race is traditionally the bringing-together of several formlines, the Irish 2000 Guineas for the impressive <b>Paddington</b> and the French Guineas for <b>Isaac Shelby</b> (second), while <b>Cicero's Gift</b> and <b>Mostabshir</b> come through impressive wins in lesser company.</p><div>Good race, even the outsiders have some elements of form worth noting. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>VERDICT</b> - Chaldean to follow up from the Guineas with Mostabshir to emerge from the pack.</div><div>Chaldean, Mostabshir, Paddington.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Passing on the staying handicaps but keen on <b>Francisco Clemente</b> in the Wolferton later in the day.</div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-22839140760922861902023-06-03T11:34:00.001+01:002023-06-03T11:34:07.805+01:00Derby preview<p>Yeah, I know, rather late...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8B1ApUV8wbmIdfeSVD1zchZj4-roYkQ-9HPnioQdWwWZMkAj187hGbZyyU0sgpiNn2uVdhAvzg0JRgVx3bSGu2fsNkXbcmM_GTzyw1YwWx5Zs-jDoVkql_idtY0Y4aO-SXGxXx_zrXNJYokSLhdv4UZMnTPw8VSohTyiSlxx5Cu_-AxdzuTEF1DWOIw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1351" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8B1ApUV8wbmIdfeSVD1zchZj4-roYkQ-9HPnioQdWwWZMkAj187hGbZyyU0sgpiNn2uVdhAvzg0JRgVx3bSGu2fsNkXbcmM_GTzyw1YwWx5Zs-jDoVkql_idtY0Y4aO-SXGxXx_zrXNJYokSLhdv4UZMnTPw8VSohTyiSlxx5Cu_-AxdzuTEF1DWOIw=w640-h352" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><div style="text-align: center;">(Getty Images)</div></span><p></p><p>=========</p><p><b>Betfred Derby</b><br /><i>1m4f, Group 1, 3yo<br />Epsom, 1330 BST<br />approx £1.5m.<br />Going - good to firm</i></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>Adelaide River</b> - named after a small town in the Northern Territory, about an hour south of Darwin. Winner on debut at Dundalk, but only placed in remaining four starts, over 6L behind Dubai Mile and Arrest at most recent starts. Has only raced on wet tracks when on turf, but his sire won his pair of Derbys on good and good-to-firm ground. Not hopeless. </p><p><b>Arrest</b> - won the Chester Vase by an eased-down 6.5L last month ahead of Adelaide River. There's concern over his alleged preference for soft ground and a high-knee action. Not overly bothered about that, the bigger query for me is the depth of that Chester race. Frankie's last Derby - can he do the double after winning yesterday?</p><p><b>Artistic Star</b> - by Galileo out of star Australian mare Nechita, he has won both starts to date, a maiden and a novice. Will stand out in running with his three white socks. Nice colt but this is a huge step up, might contend in a nice handicap at Royal Ascot.</p><p><b>Auguste Rodin</b> - the boom Coolmore colt whose bubble was burst when he flopped in the 2000 Guineas. That run was too bad to be true, but it takes a massive leap of faith to forgive that and back him with confidence here. Note - due to transport strikes, the stable were forced to alter their travel routine getting to Newmarket, that can affect some horses more than others, but this is a stable which travels horses around the world regularly. Achieved some massive ratings late in his 2yo campaign, notably on soft tracks, but just about every race late in the season was rain-afffected. Regally-bred, could be the new wonder stallion if that Guineas run can be put behind him. </p><p><b>Dear My Friend</b> - enjoy the day Middleham Park Racing syndicate, because he's got no hope.</p><p><b>Dubai Mile</b> - the second of the Johnston runners, with a significantly better chance. Fifth in the Guineas, he narrowly beat Arrest in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud (1m2f) and finished just behind The Foxes in the Royal Lodge. Slight concern on his stamina, both parents didn't quite get this distance but trust the trainer, the family have had bolters in the frame before.</p><p><b>King of Steel</b> - another lightly raced Amo Racing 3yo in a Classic, after Maman Joon ran a solid fourth yesterday at 50/1. Easy win on debut, then well beaten in heavy going behind Auguste Rodin in the G1 Futurity. Would have run in the Dante but was a bit naughty at the gates. If you have faith, play late as he could be one who gets wound up if there are any protesters around.</p><p><b>Military Order</b> - looking to become the first brother of a Derby winner to triumph since siblings won in 1896 and 1900. Has won his last three starts, including the Derby Trial at Lingfield, run on the AW, in nice fashion over Waipiro (did get a dream inside run off the bend), but the concern over him is the form of the stable. A quiet month leading into the big days is nothing to worry about for a leading stable but Hurricane Lane and Eternal Pride were both awful yesterday - that's giving away a five-length headstart in my book.</p><p><b>Passenger</b> - has been supplemented (meaning the owners paid a shitload of me to be a late entry, as they didn't expect him to be this good when entries closed a long, long time ago. They don't usually pay up unless they really think they can win, even if the owners are loaded). Just the two starts under his belt, an easy win in the Wood Ditton (for unraced 3yos) at Newmarket and an unlucky dead-heat third in the Dante, behind The Foxes, when he was repeatedly blocked for a run in the straight. Connections have stuck with Richard Kingscote, he's trained by Sir Michael Stoute who won last year with Desert Crown, and he will have learned plenty from that run at York. Big show.</p><p><b>San Antonio</b> - has kicked on as a 3yo winning both starts after moderate performances as a juvenile. It was a handy win in the Dee Stakes at Chester without being anything special, but he could be spurred on by the tougher test here. </p><p><b>Sprewell</b> - another NBA-themed runner, his champion miler sire isn't renowned for stayers but there's plenty of stamina on the dam side. All his runs to date have been on soft or heavy but I put that down to circumstance more than planning. He won the Leopardstown Derby Trial in good style beating a swathe of O'Brien family runners. He will be a great story if he wins, being trained by Jessica Harrington who is facing a tough battle with breast cancer. Right in this.</p><p><b>The Foxes</b> - another colt by Churchill who, in two runs this season, has run second in the Craven and won the Dante at York. He kept on to win the latter, rather than running away with it, but the stable thinks he might be one of those horses who switches off when he hits the front, so he just needs to be produced late. That might work here, but if they are strung out like Brown's cows down the straight as often happens at Epsom, he might not have that choice.</p><p><b>Waipiro</b> - oddly-named colt as Waipiro (or Waipiro Bay) is in New Zealand rather than Australia (his sire) but anyway... He bolted in at the Craven meeting, winning a novice at 25/1, then was thrust into the Derby Trial at Lingfield and pushed Military Order right to the line, over this trip. He's entitled to improve from that, just his third run. Under-rated trainer and jockey.</p><p><b>White Birch</b> - Irish raider from outside the O'Brien empire. Won the Ballysax in April, ahead of Up And Under who was beaten a bit further by Sprewell next time out, then went down a neck to The Foxes in the Dante. Proven on wet and dry, no doubts on stamina, would be higher in the betting if trained by a bigger name.</p><p><b><br />VERDICT</b></p><p>A wide-open Derby which makes a change on recent years. With question marks on the favoured runners, I'll look a bit wider (just for a change). Shock winners in Classics, particularly the Oaks and Derby, aren't rare because for most, it's a new test in distance and pressure, and horses can rapidly improve at this period in their careers.</p><p><b>Sprewell</b> and <b>Waipiro</b> top my thinking with Passenger close behind. Throwing in The Foxes and White Birch for the exotics.</p><p><br /></p><p>Back Sprewell 12/1 e-w</p><p>Back Waipiro 33/1 e-w</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-25202854568492049482023-06-02T07:38:00.001+01:002023-06-02T07:41:11.685+01:00Oaks preview<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiN2xPp5ECCrHJ0hzrUb5gHFjpZgez1YOEada3lpcEH2tR1UGnptJyc3xMKQ9gDRF7q9qBXEmvtIS6pivJVC3v8nyXFJFSD0WFB6dLY6PCxusogvRJmnLnaT1dQOGa6vILS2NrZTc-wjf1tvz1o_32Kkl-eN-cTiwLHbfpuBuBTR7DjSYLGUbp5K09XPQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="613" data-original-width="928" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiN2xPp5ECCrHJ0hzrUb5gHFjpZgez1YOEada3lpcEH2tR1UGnptJyc3xMKQ9gDRF7q9qBXEmvtIS6pivJVC3v8nyXFJFSD0WFB6dLY6PCxusogvRJmnLnaT1dQOGa6vILS2NrZTc-wjf1tvz1o_32Kkl-eN-cTiwLHbfpuBuBTR7DjSYLGUbp5K09XPQ=w400-h264" width="400" /></a></div><br />It's Classic weekend at Epsom and as always, the fillies' version takes place on the Friday. The fun and games of this meeting will be how to keep out the deluded twats from Animal Rising, who freely admit to wanting to see the thoroughbred breed made extinct.<p></p><p><span style="color: #171717; font-family: Utopia, serif; font-size: 18px;">"I have no doubt pretty much everyone who works in the industry loves the horses,"</span></p><p><span style="color: #171717; font-family: Utopia, serif; font-size: 18px;">"Thoroughbreds are beautiful creatures, but we can't escape the base point that the very reason they exist is fundamentally unethical. There is a future where perhaps the thoroughbred isn't around, but we have wild horses whose beauty we can love and appreciate in the countryside and forests."</span></p><p>They share the air we breathe...</p><p>Anyway enough oxygen wasting, let's get onto the real action.</p><p><b>================================</b></p><p><b>Betfred Oaks 2023</b><br /><i>Epsom, 1m4f, Group 1, £550k<br />Friday 1630 BST<br />Expected Going - Good/Good to Firm</i></p><p><br /></p><p><b>Be Happy</b> - sat up on the lead in the Lingfield Oaks Trial which was run on the synthetic tracks rather than the turf this season. She wobbled off the bend that day and was outpaced in the end by Eternal Hope, who parked on her back and kicked on in the straight. Had every chance there and would need a big step forward to win this, but that has happened before for this stable.</p><p><b>Bright Diamond</b> - ran fifth behind Eternal Hope and Be Happy in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, staying on nicely off a slow pace. She didn't really quicken but showed she is capable of still being there at the finish over this trip, a handy asset when the pressure is on at Epsom. Has always shaped like a stayer, it's up to jockey Clifford Lee to put her into the race a bit earlier rather than plodding on for a nice fifth.</p><p><b>Caernarfon</b> - ran fourth in the 1000 Guineas, her equal 'worst' performance based on finishing places, she always seems to be in the frame although that was her first run at Group level. She kept on well at Newmarket, finishing ahead of Meditate who ran second last weekend in the Irish 1000 Guineas. It's a big ask to step up half a mile for her second crack at Group 1 level and she's more exposed than her rivals. Just a dream for connections or is there genuine staying ability within? Will probably see her keeping on for a nice sixth.</p><p><b>Eternal Hope</b> - one of just two runners not to race as a 2yo, she's by Teofilo (sire of two Melbourne Cup winners) and will stay all day, having won already over 1m2f and 1m4f in her three starts. This will be her first run on turf, don't be surprised if she finds a bit extra on the firmer surface. So far she has done all she has been required to do, there may be more in the tank. Might be a little underrated simply because all three runs have been on the AW - it wasn't her fault the Lingfield race was switched away from the sodden grass that week.</p><p><b>Heartache Tonight</b> - interesting runner from the Davide Menuisier stable who has run all her races on softer ground in France. Her half-sister Wonderful Tonight is an absolute mudlark and none of her siblings appear to have won on dry ground (Racing Post coverage of international racing could be improved). At Paris-Longchamp last time, she sat outside the leader in the G1 Prix Saint-Alary and was just plain in the straight, plodding on for fourth. Can't see her improving to win this, whether she handles the good-to-firm ground or not.</p><p><b>Maman Joon</b> - a rather ambitious entry, having raced just once, six weeks ago at Newbury and being beaten almost 10L on soft ground. Very well-bred, by the champion Sea The Stars and her half-brothers Candleford and Atty Persse both won at Royal Ascor over 1m4f, but this is a huge ask at just her second start. More to do with the ownership wanting to be seen here I think.</p><p><b>Red Riding Hood</b> - wore blinkers for the first time in the G3 Blue Wind at Naas when she pulled hard early and eventually tired to run third. Big step up in class here, might be used as stable pacemaker here but being second or third-string for Aidan O'Brien in a 3yo classic has found some big price winners in the past.</p><p><b>Running Lion</b> - by Roaring Lion who struggled to get a mile and a half, as have some of his progeny. But her damsire is Dansili which helps and she has shown no sign of stopping in winning her last four starts, mostly over a mile but won by 4.5L over 1m2f last time. The trainer isn't afraid to switch his Classic hopes to France over a shorter trip so I think you have to trust John Gosden on this one, he's won the race three times in the past decade.</p><p><b>Savethelastdance</b> - Coolmore owned, daughter of Galileo, O'Brien trained, Ryan Moore to ride....oh, and she won by about 100m in the Cheshire Oaks - how much more do you need?? The query is what did she beat at Chester. It was a relatively weak field but she absolutely spanked them. She started 8/11 that day, after winning a Leopardstown maiden at 20/1 (ahead of Boogie Woogie who won a maiden next time but then finished behind Wonderful Tonight in France). So is she suddenly the best filly in Europe? Her two wins have been on wet tracks but on breeding, there should be no issue with a dry track here. Even money? Hmmm.</p><p><b>Sea of Roses</b> - fifth in the Musidora after racing too keenly. Ran second in a G3 at Saint-Cloud in April (soft going) behind a beaten French filly who has an Arc entry. Drawn the prime inside gate. Big price, worth a look each-way.</p><p><b>Soul Sister</b> - beat a decent field in the Musidora at York by 4L, registering a RP rating only topped three previous times. Those behind her boast Group form and the performance rated only 1lb off Savethelastdance at Chester, albeit with that filly's figure needing a fair margin of error (plus or minus) considering the poor form behind her. The Gosden-trained filly relished the dry ground at York after flopping on soft, verging on heavy, going at Newbury, which contributed to her SP of 18/1. Frankie's last chance to win the Oaks, a race he has already won six times.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>VERDICT</b></p><p>The favourite could just be something special, Occam's Razor says sometimes it's just that obvious but I have to oppose her at the price. She beat trees last time. In hindsight, she'll either be the best Even money chance you've ever seen or a terrible price. Not to mention the stable will probably truckload it, so the black figures may be long gone. But just four of the stable's 11 Oaks favourites have been successful (probably none as short as this one though).</p><p>The EW value here is <b>Eternal Hope</b>. No doubt on her stamina or jockey. One little concern is that Godolphin haven't won this race since 2002, and O'Brien & Gosden have won the last nine between them. But at 12-14/1 EW, it's the place money we want to lock in, with the win payout as the bonus. You might even get four places if you shop around.</p><p><br /></p><p><i>BET - Eternal Hope ew at 14/1</i></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-79906312166811715292023-06-01T08:44:00.001+01:002023-06-01T08:44:28.806+01:00Oaks and Derby week<p>Race previews to come over the next couple of days...</p><p>In preparation for the big weekend at Epsom, I asked ChatGPT to write me a teaser article about the Oaks. It's pretty good, except for at least one glaring error...</p><p>'Write a short article about the history of the Oaks, a horse race run at Epsom every year. It should highlight the most successful jockeys and trainers, and mention the pomp and ceremony of the occasion.'</p><p>And this is what I got back, unedited.</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Oaks: A Storied Legacy of Horse Racing Excellence</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Every year, amidst the rolling hills of Epsom Downs in Surrey, England, a captivating spectacle of equine grace and power unfolds. The Oaks, one of the most prestigious horse races in the world, traces its origins back to the late 18th century and has since become an integral part of British sporting heritage. As the fillies thunder down the historic course, they embody the culmination of a rich history steeped in tradition and adorned with the names of legendary jockeys and trainers.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The inaugural Oaks Stakes took place in 1779, just a year after its counterpart, the famous Epsom Derby, came into being. Both races were conceived by the 12th Earl of Derby, Edward Smith-Stanley, who named the Oaks after his nearby estate. From its early days, the Oaks established itself as a race of unparalleled importance for three-year-old fillies, captivating the imaginations of racing enthusiasts and attracting the attention of top trainers and jockeys.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over the years, numerous jockeys and trainers have left their indelible mark on the Oaks' illustrious history. Among the most successful jockeys to have graced the hallowed turf at Epsom is the legendary Frank Buckle, who won the race no less than nine times between 1797 and 1823. Buckle's exceptional skill and tactical acumen earned him a place in racing folklore and solidified his status as one of the greatest jockeys of his era.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another iconic jockey synonymous with the Oaks is Fred Archer, known as "The Tin Man." Archer's partnership with the brilliant mare, Shotover, saw him secure four consecutive victories from 1882 to 1885. His remarkable dominance in the race remains unmatched, and his name continues to resonate with fans of the sport.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When it comes to trainers, no name shines brighter in the annals of the Oaks than that of Robert Robson. Often referred to as the "Emperor of Trainers," Robson achieved a staggering 13 victories between 1802 and 1825, an extraordinary feat that stands as a testament to his exceptional horsemanship and strategic acumen. Robson's unparalleled success helped establish the Oaks as a pinnacle of achievement for trainers across the land.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Oaks is not merely a contest of raw talent and skill; it is also a display of pomp and ceremony befitting its distinguished heritage. As race day arrives, Epsom Downs is transformed into a grand theater of spectacle and elegance. The distinctive scene unfolds as elegant ladies don their finest attire, donning extravagant hats adorned with feathers and flowers. Gentlemen, too, join in the pageantry, presenting themselves in dapper attire, capturing the essence of timeless style and tradition.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As the race begins, the thunderous applause from the packed stands reverberates across the course. The atmosphere is electric, and the tension is palpable. The fillies, guided by their skilled jockeys, showcase their speed and agility, vying for the coveted title and the glory that accompanies it. The cheers of the crowd reach a crescendo as the victor crosses the finish line, etching their name into the annals of Oaks history.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Through the centuries, the Oaks has remained a symbol of excellence, sporting prowess, and the enduring love affair between humans and horses. Its legacy continues to captivate racing enthusiasts and inspire a new generation of jockeys and trainers to strive for greatness. As the horses thunder down the hallowed Epsom turf each year, they pay homage to the giants of the past, carrying forward the traditions and the spirit that define the Oaks as one of the most prestigious races in the world.</span></span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-38083720811193415512023-04-14T23:40:00.002+01:002023-04-14T23:40:35.271+01:00THE RANDOX GRAND NATIONAL 2023 PREVIEW<p>THE RANDOX GRAND NATIONAL 2023</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoadrO-f5QYXjwbCdB2SX9ZQsgsq9Y6fCzhcbM02vqIllSwCbLqbwKr7MrpX2Wmjg03Toi97wofDq3Xzz--jJGQW3GxXX7gtdvaRIk24rfgS5PnwQaOgvjKYYOlNjpWNkkwYfhmURJ71Z-A4Ru5_m0Cq1UrY6eaatF7WIcPsQyshiCWcporcqor2voCQ/s2048/skysports-grand-national-aintree_5725798.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoadrO-f5QYXjwbCdB2SX9ZQsgsq9Y6fCzhcbM02vqIllSwCbLqbwKr7MrpX2Wmjg03Toi97wofDq3Xzz--jJGQW3GxXX7gtdvaRIk24rfgS5PnwQaOgvjKYYOlNjpWNkkwYfhmURJ71Z-A4Ru5_m0Cq1UrY6eaatF7WIcPsQyshiCWcporcqor2voCQ/w640-h360/skysports-grand-national-aintree_5725798.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>The hardest race of the year and one I've never picked the winner in - but hey, why not spend an hour or three summarising which ones to strike a line through!</p><p><b><br />1. Any Second Now - 12/1 at time of writing</b></p><p>CASE FOR: third in 2021, second last year. Nice win last time in a G2 at Navan.</p><p>CASE AGAINST: Red Rum was the last topweight to win back in 1974. 11yo now, not many of those win, but they did win three in a row 2012-14. </p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 4th-8th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>2. Noble Yeats -12/1</b></p><p>FOR: Won this race last year at 50/1. Ran a nice fourth in the Gold Cup last time.</p><p>AGAINST: Up 19lb for last year, and repeat winners are rare - but Tiger Roll did it 2018-2019.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 6th-10th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>3. Galvin - 20/1</b></p><p>FOR: Was primed for this race last year then wasn't quite ready. A longer break from the Cheltenham Festival is a positive for him. High class jumper for Davy Russell's last crack at the National.</p><p>AGAINST: 7lbs worse off against Delta Work for 2.5L second in the Cross-Country at the Festival, but probably better off over these more traditional fences.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 1st-5th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>4. Fury Road - 33/1</b></p><p>FOR: Tough old fella from the Elliott stable, trip too short for him in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, this will have been his target all season. Eight out of his last nine runs have been in Grade 1 company, first time in a handicap</p><p>AGAINST: Doesn't win a lot, and chase mark not that far clear of his hurdles figure.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 4th-8th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>5. The Big Dog -14/1</b></p><p>FOR: Won two big Irish handicaps early in the season, the Munster National and Troytown Handicap. Strong run when third carrying topweight in the Welsh National. Loves the tough staying tests. </p><p>AGAINST: Fell last time in the Irish Gold Cup back in Feb. Meets Ain't That A Shame 11lbs worse off for narrow win back in October.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 2nd-5th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>6. Capodanno 20/1</b></p><p>FOR: Perhaps the pick of the McManus runners, has always shown stacks of potential but has been lightly-raced to keep his handicap mark in check. </p><p>AGAINST: Just one run this season means not many miles in the legs, but Willie Mullins is a genius.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 8th-12th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>7. Delta Work 9/1</b></p><p>FOR: Ran third last year (beaten 22L), carrying 5lbs more. Won the Cross-Country race at Cheltenham for the last two years, as Tiger Roll used to do. Rating for this year's win was better than last year's.</p><p>AGAINST: Ridden by a guy named Keith and owned by that Ryanair bloke.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 6th-9th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>8. Sam Brown 50/1</b></p><p>FOR: Won at this meeting last year over the regular fences. </p><p>AGAINST: Poor in three of four runs this season but has had a wind operation since. Still doubt he's good enough.</p><p>TO FINISH: No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>9. Lifetime Ambition 33/1</b></p><p>FOR: Classy jumper who has completed every time and only once missed the first four. Would be a great story for elite dual-code trainer Jessica Harrington who has been battling breast cancer. She had Magic Of Night run second here at 66/1 a few years back. </p><p>AGAINST: Has run well at three miles but this is significantly further.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, top five.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>10. Carefully Selected 50/1</b></p><p>FOR: Another Mullins horse ridden by star young Irish jockey Michael O'Sullivan. </p><p>AGAINST: Don't think his Irish form is in the same league as some of the others.</p><p>TO FINISH: No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>11. Coko Beach 28/1</b></p><p>FOR: Eighth last year at 50/1, losing a shoe on the way round, which can never be comfortable. Comes into his own at marathon trips, gets ther services of Harry Cobden who won a Grade 1 on Friday.</p><p>AGAINST: Winning his last start bumped him up the weights but only carries one more pound than last year.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 5th-8th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>12. Longhouse Poet 18/1</b></p><p>FOR: Sixth last year, carrying 4lbs more. Trainer has won this race before with Numbersixvalverde in 2006. </p><p>AGAINST: All over the place this season, two wins, two failed-to-finish and a long, long last. Don't waste your money on the each-way part!</p><p>TO FINISH: No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>13. Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/1</b></p><p>FOR: Has not missed a place in 19 starts since his debut flat run. Won the National Hunt Challenge Cup at Cheltenham over 3m6f. The further the better based on that run.</p><p>AGAINST: A 7yo which was deemed to be too young for this race, until Noble Yeats showed it's a different race last year. Fortunate to win last time when Mahler Mission crashed out two fences from home, doubt he'd have got there otherwise.</p><p>TO FINISH: Yes, 3rd-6th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>14. Darasso 80/1</b></p><p>FOR: Finished alongside Capodanno last time at Gowran Park, with a 9lb weight advantage. That's cut back to 6lbs here.</p><p>AGAINST: Poor in two runs this year, and has raced just once at three miles (third in Kerry National last September). A lot further to travel here. </p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>15. Le Milos 16/1</b></p><p>FOR: Flying this season, winning big handicap chases at Bangor, Newbury (the race formerly known as the Hennessy) and was just tipped out in the Premier Chase at Kelso. Has missed the frame just once in 10 starts over fences. </p><p>AGAINST: One of the few Brits in the race, is the local form up to the Irish contingent?</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes. can win. 1st-4th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>16. Escaria Ten 100/1</b></p><p>FOR: Finished the race last year at 25/1.</p><p>AGAINST: Was beaten 75L last year. Pulled up in the Magners Plate at the Festival.</p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>17. The Big Breakaway 40/1</b></p><p>FOR: Second in the Welsh National, 5L ahead of The Big Dog, off similar weight terms.</p><p>AGAINST: Has since flopped in the Ultima at Cheltenham when he pulled up. Just one win over fences from eleven attempts.</p><p>TO FINISH? Probably not, too inconsistent.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>18. Cape Gentleman 100/1</b></p><p>FOR: Absolutely nothing.</p><p>AGAINST: Two runs at three miles: fell and beaten 92L.</p><p>TO FINISH? Nope</p><p><br /></p><p><b>19. Roi Mage 40/1</b></p><p>FOR: Third in the Grand Steeplechase de Paris back in 2019. Beaten 1.25L behind Longhouse Poet, giving away 5lbs, last time at Down Royal, and won that same 3m2f chase last season. Very genuine, only failure in last 20 starts was over the cross-country fences at Cheltenham. </p><p>AGAINST: Small-time Irish trainer, quite a different formline.</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, 6-8th</p><p><br /></p><p><b>20. Diol Ker 80/1</b></p><p>FOR: Won the Leinster National last season and was nosed out in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last Xmas. </p><p>AGAINST: Just one chase win from 13 starts, well beaten last time in the National Trial at Punchestown, and at two other attempts beyond 3m2f</p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>21. A Wave Of The Sea 40/1</b></p><p>FOR: Fourth in the Munster National behind The Big Dog back in October.</p><p>AGAINST: Well beaten in next two starts, and then ran twice over much shorter trips. Odd preparation, doesn't enthuse for the marathon trip.</p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>22. Minella Trump</b></p><p>FOR: Won eight of his past nine over fences, but in tiny fields. Ignore last run over hurdles, that was just a spin to get him fit.</p><p>AGAINST: Racing in fields of four or five is no preparation for the hustle & bustle of the National. </p><p>TO FINISH? No. </p><p><br /></p><p><b>23. Vanillier 16/1</b></p><p>FOR: Albert Bartlett Hurdle (3m) winner at the Festival two years ago, narrowly beaten in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse six weeks ago. </p><p>AGAINST: Not much of note between those two runs, hasn't progressed beyond that Festival, with either his hurdle or chase rating. Price relates more to potential than recent results.</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, but distanced</p><p><br /></p><p><b>24. Velvet Elvis 33/1</b></p><p>FOR: Ordinary early in the season but better in winning a race at Fairyhouse in February, then second to Any Second Now three weeks ago. Finished 7L behind today's topweight with 3lbs less. Now meets him another 17lbs better. Sixth (beaten 8L) in the Irish National last year, only start over a marathon trip so far. </p><p>AGAINST: 7yo, is he progressive enough? </p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, top 10</p><p><br /></p><p><b>25. Ain't That A Shame 8/1</b></p><p>FOR: Broke his chasing duck last time out in a Beginners Chase at Gowran Park, after two narrow and unlucky defeats in the Munster National and Paddy Power Chase late last year. Rachael Blackmore to ride in the neapolitan icrecream colours, Henry de Bromhead trains - about as good as it gets.</p><p>AGAINST: One win from seven over fences doesn't inspire but it's all about timing with this stable.</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, first five.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>26. Corach Rambler 9/1</b></p><p>FOR: Won the Ultima at Cheltenham for the second year running, due to go up 10lbs which gives him a great advantage here. Trainer/jockey combination won this with One For Arthur back in 2017.</p><p>AGAINST: Has always peaked in March and then gone on a summer break. Has this prep been timed differently? Finished 9L behind Le Milos in the race formerly known as the Hennessy.</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, top 10 but outside the placings.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>27. Enjoy D'Allen 40/1</b></p><p>FOR: Stumbled and unseated at the first last year (SP 20/1). Backed up nine days later in the Irish National and ran ninth.</p><p>AGAINST: Terrible form this season but never rule out a JP McManus runner.</p><p>TO FINISH? No</p><p><br /></p><p><b>28. Mr Incredible 14/1</b></p><p>FOR: Warm sentiment from the stable, lightly raced. Ran third in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Three runs since transferring to Willie Mullins, was heavily backed in the Paddy Power Chase over Xmas when he was brought down early on.</p><p>AGAINST: Quirky, lot of letter in his form - Refused to Race, Pulled Up and Brought Down within his last five. </p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, 5th to 8th if he decides it's a going day.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>29. Mister Coffey 33/1</b></p><p>FOR: Model of consistency in weaker fields, plus Cheltenham Festival placings - third in the National Hunt Challenge Cup this year, second in the Kim Muir last year. </p><p>AGAINST: Eight starts over fences, seven placings...zero wins. Beaten 58L in the Topham last year over the same National fences, his only flop in this category.</p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>30. Cloudy Glen 50/1</b></p><p>FOR: Won the race formerly known as the Hennessy last season but form has tailed off since. A third in the National Trial at Haydock in February provided a glimpse of better days, </p><p>AGAINST: Just four completions in his last eight, three Pulled Ups and an unseat. </p><p>TO FINISH? Probably not.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>31. Hill Sixteen 66/1</b></p><p>FOR: Nosed out by Snow Leopardess in the Becher Chase last season, second in the Bet365 Chase at Kelso. </p><p>AGAINST: Went to the top of the weights in the Becher this season, finishing seventh, beaten 14L, then went for a wind op. Trailed in last, 44L behind, at only run since.</p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>32. Gabbys Cross 66/1</b></p><p>FOR: Won the Galway Chase in July, fairly close in the Kerry National and Paddy Power Chase later in the year. Carries 24lbs less than last run in the Leinster National, stays on well.</p><p>AGAINST: Rachael Blackmore rides the stablemate instead but that doesn't mean this one is hopeless.</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, 7th-10th.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>33. Recite A Prayer 66/1</b></p><p>FOR: Trained by Willie Mullins. Second in the Kerry National, third in the Cork National in September/November respectively. </p><p>AGAINST: Ordinary since those two runs, but has been freshened up since Xmas. Doubt he is up to this class.</p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>34. Eva's Oskar 50/1</b></p><p>FOR: Drops almost two stone on recent runs in the Eider and VirginBet Masters. Ran first and second in G3 Cheltenhem handicaps before Xmas. </p><p>AGAINST: Not convinced how strong that form is.</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, outside chance of winning - top 10.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>35. Our Power 20/1</b></p><p>FOR: The only horse in the field to have won his last two starts, a pair of G3 three-mile handicap chases. Goes up in the weights for those wins, has now won four from eight over fences. </p><p>AGAINST: Hasn't run beyond 3m1f, his sire (Power) doesn't scream stayers.</p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, 5th-8th.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>36. Dunboyne 80/1</b></p><p>FOR: Second in the Thyestes (received a stone from Carefully Selected) and fourth in the Kim Muir (8L behind Mr Incredible on almost level weights). Goes ok in the wet.</p><p>AGAINST: Form not that strong, has been known to refuse to race.</p><p>TO FINISH? No.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>37. Francky Du Berlais 80/1</b></p><p>FOR: Fourth in the Topham here last year and followed up soon after with a win at Uttoxeter - can run well in April.</p><p>AGAINST: Massive prices at every start this campaign and hasn't placed once.</p><p>TO FINISH? No</p><p><br /></p><p><b>38. Fortescue 100/1</b></p><p>FOR: Stayed on well in the Becher Chase in December, finishing fourth beaten 10L, carrying 21lbs more than here, and was also battling on in the Haydock National Trial two months ago.</p><p>AGAINST: Unseated last year (SP 28/1) when already beaten. </p><p>TO FINISH? Yes, 10th-15th.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>39. Back On The Lash 25/1</b></p><p>FOR: Multiple cross-country course winner at Cheltenham, but only on good/good-to-soft ground.</p><p>AGAINST: Any rain at all. </p><p>TO FINISH? No</p><p><br /></p><p><b>40. Born By The Sea 50/1</b></p><p>FOR: Handy form at Galway, not much anywhere else</p><p>AGAINST: Four starts this season, hasn't finished within 20L of the winner. Just three wins from 46 starts.</p><p>TO FINISH? No. Not on the same day anyway.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>MY PICKS:</b></p><p>Le Milos<br />Eva's Oskar<br />Lifetime Ambition<br />Ain't That A Shame<br />Gaillard Du Mesnil</p><p><br /></p><p>Best of luck!</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-33304117222416136892023-03-17T00:41:00.003+00:002023-03-17T11:15:22.092+00:00Cheltenham Gold Cup day previews <p>The bookies struck back yesterday with no favourite winning, although a couple of the outsiders were tipped up in the trade paper. Friday is a funny day. The place is packed because it's Gold Cup day and Fridays are easier to take off and make it a long weekend. But there's a lot of dross at the end of the card to end the festival, at least for me, on a bit of a low. </p><p>Anyway, here we go for finishing off with some winners!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjonnVDROSK32aYPTbQRLIp_AFdOHpSUiAOjlIjouhDh2R6A4wZB-axXJ1LAQqCLRbbnhmfGfpxLVwF253gw7PV_VVke5l9pb6AynnlZeCLm7DLahIeyedqihUuGycXbXKHCimJ_Di-VtUhAAxAnkftL4LUIp2wtUj6BgkTHBTjcMqFQKr1h_OcX4lu2g/s1200/chelt%20gold%20cup.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="427" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjonnVDROSK32aYPTbQRLIp_AFdOHpSUiAOjlIjouhDh2R6A4wZB-axXJ1LAQqCLRbbnhmfGfpxLVwF253gw7PV_VVke5l9pb6AynnlZeCLm7DLahIeyedqihUuGycXbXKHCimJ_Di-VtUhAAxAnkftL4LUIp2wtUj6BgkTHBTjcMqFQKr1h_OcX4lu2g/w640-h427/chelt%20gold%20cup.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>------------------------</p><p><b>TRIUMPH</b></p><p><i>Active Duty</i> - only in this because he wasn't good enough to get into the juvenile handicap!</p><p><i>Almuhit</i> - see Active Duty.</p><p><i>Ascending</i> - well beaten last time behind a couple of leading chances here, but went close against Tekao the run before. Could fluke a place at big odds.</p><p><i>Blood Destiny</i> - revelled in the heavy going last time, winning by 18L with Boodles winner Jazzy Matty a further 5L behind. Gave Sir Allen weight and a beating on Irish debut before that. He has dodged the big juvenile features that his stablemates have contested so it's hard to know exactly where he sits in the pecking order. He could be behind Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth, or Willie/owners just decided to keep the gelding away from the fillies until the championship race. Big show.</p><p><i>Gust Of Wind</i> - ran fifth in the G1 Spring Juvenile during the Dublin Racing Festival, when he was third-ranked of the Mullin's sextet. That was his first run for the stable after being purchased from France. Probably has more talent than shown that day but he's near the back of the seven-pronged attack from big Willie today.</p><p><i>Hypotenus</i> - not enough runs to get into the juvenile handicap. Made jumping errors on debut and couldn't beat Zenta who made an absolute horlicks of the last two flights, so I can't see him getting close today.</p><p><i>Jacovec Cavern</i> - see Active Duty. </p><p><i>Jipcot</i> - unseen in the UK, having only just been purchased out of France. He has corresponding ratings with the best of the French-breds here, however those figures were recorded last month whereas Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth were recording them a year ago as early 3yos. Pass.</p><p><i>Jupiter Du Gite</i> - shock 66/1 winner on debut at Newbury, then went to Cheltenham to face some of the better UK juveniles and pulled too hard to run any sort of race. If they could sort that out, he might have a sneaky chance. Trainer happy there's cut in the ground for him.</p><p><i>Rightsotom</i> - well beaten behind a decent one back in November but not seen since. Would be some training effort to win with that background.</p><p><i>Cinsa</i> - nope, not enough runs or ability to get into the Boodles.</p><p><i>Gala Marceau</i> - looked very good as a juvenile jumper in France and no doubt Kenny Alexander (owner of Honeysuckle) forked out plenty for him. Won one, lost one against Lossiemouth so far, and clearly better than anything else they have faced. A hood has been applied in an attempt to get him to settle, it's hard enough to win these races without running with the choke out.</p><p><i>Je Garde</i> - filly thrown into this race at her first UK/Irish start. Stiff task!</p><p><i>Lossiemouth</i> - flying filly for the Riccis and Willie Mullins. After two impressive wins in Ireland, she got shuffled back behind a tiring/error-prone leader in the G1 DRF Spring Juvenile which gave the advantage to Gala Marceau who duly saluted. I think she's still better than GM, the question is whether she is better than the other Mullins key chance, Blood Destiny.</p><p><i>Zenta</i> - jumped terribly at Fairyhouse three weeks ago but still won. There's obviously a good motor in there but you can't make mistakes at this level and get away with it. </p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>Struggling to split Blood Destiny and Lossiemouth, the 7lb allowance for the fillies is a big advantage for the latter. However it must be noted that Willie Mullins is two wins from 38 runners in this race (winners in 2020 and 2022). He has a serious hand this year which of course dilutes the figures when you enter that many! </p><p>It might come down to price - at the moment it's 7/4 the pair, I'd lean to backing whichever one is the better price.</p><p>BLOOD DESTINY/LOSSIEMOUTH, Gala Marceau</p><p>==================</p><p><b>COUNTY HURDLE</b></p><p>Always a baffling race with so many chances and a history of big odds winners (eight of last 15 winners have started 20/1 or higher). Younger horses have a great record (5yos have won 12 of last 24 editions, 5&6yos 13 of last 17), and 18 of past 22 winners were novice or second-season hurdlers. So in the interests of keeping it simple, that cuts it down to Pied Piper, Saint Sam, First Street, Hunters Yarn, Prairie Dancer, Path D'Oroux, Petit Tonnerre and Pembroke, and you make a case for all of them.</p><p><i>Path D'Oroux</i> won his bumper and maiden hurdle before getting chucked in the deep end against Marine Nationale (pulled up, no explanation in stewards' report) and Facile Vega (4th, beaten 28L in G1 Future Champion Novice). He returned to a more realistic level at Navan the next time to win but that race fell apart (he was the only finisher out of front four in the market). Always have a lot of respect for the Gavin Cromwell stable.</p><p><i>Prairie Dancer</i> is interesting at massive odds. He won a decent handicap at Listowel in the autumn but struggled in higher grade in November/December on wet ground. Perhaps he does need firmer ground and it's also a concen that JJ Slevin, his regular rider, has gone to Down Royal today rather than hang around for the final day of the Festival.</p><p><i>Saint Sam</i> ran second in the Boodles here two years ago as favourite then unseated last year in the Arkle (not his fault at all). He'd been facing the likes of Blue Lord and Edwardstone over fences, so he was dropped back to hurdles this campaign. Three starts, all as fav, for a win, a fifth (behind Blazing Khal and Sire Du Berlais), and a second 12 days ago at Leopardstown. His issue has been pulling hard in small fields - that should be resolved today with a hectic pace in a this full field. Mullins has won six of the past 13 editions, he's high in the weights but classy enough to deal with it.</p><p><i>Pembroke</i> is the overnight fav and it's not hard to see why. Dan Skelton has won this three times in the last seven years, his hurdling career is off to a flyer with two wins and a second from four runs. He didn't get up the hill that well here in January in the Classic Novices but I'll put that down to the longer trip, he drops back 3f here. </p><p><i>First Street</i> ran State Man to a length and a quarter here last season but goes up 10lbs on that run. After winning the Gerry Feilden at Newbury, he stepped up in trip to take on Marie's Rock in the Relkeel here on New Year's Day (third, beaten 6.25L, gave her 5lbs), then dropped back to just under two miles for the Kingmaker at Wincanton where he finished could only finish third of four and was swiftly despatched for a wind op. Assuming that works and he's ready to go, he's a solid chance - although it's worth noting Nicky Henderson is 0/35 this century!</p><p>Of the older contenders, <i>Filey Bay</i> has E.Mullins next to his name and must be respected while <i>Pinkerton</i> could be a sneaky Irish hope at a better price - consistent, likes big fields, lightly raced.</p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>Good luck! </p><p>SAINT SAM, Pinkerton, Pembroke, Path D'Oroux</p><p>==================</p><p><b>ALBERT BARTLETT</b></p><p><i>Affordable Fury</i> - won his maiden at Galway in October, was then pitched into Graded races and has been way out of his depth.</p><p><i>Chianti Classico</i> - winning easily but in much weaker races. Pass.</p><p><i>Corbetts Cross</i> - four hurdles runs for a debut second and three wins, but over a range of distances. JP McManus snapped him up out of the Eugene O'Sullivan yard and then dropped him back from three to two miles to win a G2, succeeding in a great duel to the line from the final flight, against a very promising one called Found A Fifty, 16L ahead of third. The one to beat.</p><p><i>Dawn Rising</i> - a brother to Irish Derby winner Sovereign, he showed a bit of talent on the Flat for Coolmore but now switched to hurdling, he's not bad at this caper either. His two wins have been bookended by thirds behind Champ Kiely (third in Wednesday's Ballymore) - but the last time in the G1 Lawlors, he looked flat which might be solved by the extra half-mile and thus slower pace, but I'd prefer to let him run without me.</p><p><i>Embassy Gardens</i> - fourth behind Good Land in a maiden over Xmas (just behind Search For Glory), he then took on a Novice hurdle at Thurles and won by 35L as 5/6 fav. Don't get too excited though, the second & third favs ran poorly so it's guesswork about how good or bad that result truly is. Paul Townend will ride so you could assume he's top pick of Willie's trio.</p><p><i>Favori De Champdou</i> - a rare one who is very season at the trip, having run three times over 2m7f and won them all. He's shown enough pace at the end of those races to suggest there's still more to come. Jumps well, stays well, ticks the boxes.</p><p><i>Hiddenvalley Lake</i> - suffered his first defeat under Rules narrowly last time when conceding 6lbs to Monty's Star in a G3 at Clonmel, resuming after two months off. Fair chance that was a prep run for this race. Respect.</p><p><i>Idalko Bihoue</i> - won his maiden, went straight into the Challow on New Year's Eve, finishing third behind Hermes Allen and You Wear It Well. Next up was a G2 at Doncaster but he never got going and pulled up a long way out. Perhaps the ground was too firm (officially good). If you can forgive that, he's a big price with a hope. </p><p><i>Letsbeclearaboutit</i> - finished behind Hiddenvalley Lake (4th, 8.75L) and Favori De Champdou (2nd, 4.25L) before finding a weak maiden on heavy ground to romp in by 22L at Punchestown. Has plenty of Flat ability, ran second to Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit in his bumper days. Will stay all day.</p><p><i>Monty's Star</i> - two hurdles runs, second to Shanbally Kid in a Navan maiden followed by a narrow G3 win at Clonmel over Hiddenvalley Lake, in receipt of 6lbs. By Walk In The Park, he's half-brother to Monalee who loved the Festival, running second twice and fourth another two times in the proper G1s. In short, he's a blue-blood and you can expect there is plenty more to come from him. The lack of experience concerns me but last year's winner won on only his second hurdle start, so it's not impossible!</p><p><i>Rock My Way</i> - five year old, two hurdles runs, still a lot to learn. Would break a lot of trends by winning.</p><p><i>Saint Palais</i> - a novice at hurdling and chasing? Four from six over fences, but 0/6 over hurdles. I don't get why he's here...</p><p><i>Sandor Clegane</i> - a handy bumper horse last season who was soon pointed towards distance hurdling, being by Fame And Glory. He ran third in a DRF G1 behind Good Land six weeks ago, behind the handy Good Land (fourth in the Ballymore). Extra trip will only benefit him.</p><p><i>Seabank Bistro</i> - started odds-on against Corbetts Cross two starts back but could only run second (winner had advantage of 5lb claim). Finally won his maiden the next time at his third attempt, but his ratings progression through his three maidens was minimal.</p><p><i>Search For Glory</i> - battled on well to finish third behind Monty's Star in a Clonmel G3 last time, just his second hurdle run. Gordon Elliott is 0/9 in this race, can't back him with just two jumps runs under his belt.</p><p><i>Shanbally Kid</i> - beat Monty's Star in his maiden, who then went on to win a G3 at his next start. To win a three-mile G1 hurdle, you usually need more battle smarts than just two runs' worth.</p><p><i>Stay Away Fay</i> - just the two runs over hurdles, talented but needs more experience.</p><p><i>Thomas Mor</i> - wants dry ground, has been beating pretty weak fields.</p><p><i>Three Card Brag</i> - not convinced he'll stay, at least at any great speed. His last win was in a very slow time and he goes up half a mile. They say he's bred for it but the eye says...</p><p><i>Weveallbeencaught</i> - beaten a long way behind Good Land and Sandor Clegane in the 2m6f G1 Novice at the DRF but came home with a cut on the fetlock. Started 5/4 when beating 66/1 shot Rock My Way in his maiden at Cheltenham. Pass.</p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>I backed The Nice Guy at a great price last year so therefore logic says I must be successful on this race every year! :) Corbetts Cross is the one to beat but I'll happily throw in Monty's Star and Sandor Clegane as well.</p><p>CORBETTS CROSS, Monty's Star, Sandor Clegane</p><p>======================</p><p><b>GOLD CUP</b></p><p><i>Ahoy Senor</i> - ran second in the Brown Advisory last year then won the Mildmay at Aintree, but hasn't kicked on since. He's been beaten in the Charlie Hall, Many Clouds and King George Chases before winning the Cotswold here in late Jan. That's a long way short of this.</p><p><i>A Plus Tard</i> - won this race by 15L last year in a similar strength field, simply bolting up the hill. But since then, we've seen him once, supposedly fully primed for the Betfair Chase in November and he flopped badly without any obvious excuse. If in fine health, he'd be favourite. Do you trust the trainer or not?</p><p><i>Bravemansgame</i> - brilliant chaser, winning eight of his nine races over fences, the defeat coming in the Mildmay at Aintree last season, then he was despatched off for a wind operation so we probably excuse that run. His two runs in open company have landed the Charlie Hall and the King George so it's tough to crab him, although the margin in the latter was flattered by his main rival unseating at the last when he was likely to trail in second. The best chance for the home team.</p><p><i>Conflated</i> - a multiple G1 winner in Ireland who has only crossed the Irish Sea twice, falling here in the Ryanair, and a second in the Betway Bowl at Aintree, both last year. Finished third behind Envoi Allen in the Champion Chase at Down Royal (3m) then won the G1 Savills Chase over Xmas, but none of those rivals reoppose here - it was a fairly poor field for a G1. I don't think he's up to these if they're all running close to their best.</p><p><i>Eldorado Allen</i> - won the Denman and the Haldon Gold Cup last season but this time around he's progressively been finishing further behind with his RPR declining each time. Nope, think he is past his best.</p><p><i>Galopin Des Champs</i> - five from six over fences (odds-on every time), with the one blip being here last year when he was a dozen lengths clear and fell at the last in the Turner. Hard to gauge just how good his recent Grade 1 wins since that fall have been, he scares off the opposition - from this field, Stattler is the only one to have taken him on. He has won easily at his two starts at three miles, no reason to think a bit further would stop him.</p><p><i>Hewick</i> - a remarkable story having been initially purchased for €850, was a handy jumper for most of his career then in the last 18 months, he has won the Durham National, the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, the Galway Plate and the American National (Hurdle) at Far Hills. You'd think he's still a level short of winning the best race in the world for chasers but the dream is still alive for the connections.</p><p><i>Minella Indo</i> - has an exceptional record at the Festival - won Albert Bartlett in 2019, 2nd in RSA 2020, won Gold Cup 2021, 2nd in Gold Cup 2022. But he's now a 10yo, and no 10yo has won this century, although four of them won from 1988-1998. He might be aged ten but his racing career is quite young, just the 19 races overall. After last year's Gold Cup, he went to Punchestown and was pulled up - only the second time he'd done that, both in the same season, both times with new gear (cheekpieces and tongue tie repsectively) and obviously hated it. He was given a break until New Year's Day when he won the Tramore G3 (8L ahead of Stattler) that Al Boum Photo regularly used a prep race. In that race he recorded an RPR of 160. In previous seasons, his last run leading in has rated 161 (2021) and 163 (2022). He can still win. </p><p><i>Noble Yeats</i> - the Grand National winner who now has to run in Graded company as he'll never get into a handicap again, bar the National. He won a Listed race at Wexford followed by the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree (beat Dashel Drasher, Ahoy Senor and Sounds Russian), and was then pointed at the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in late January. He finished third, 2.5L behind Ahoy Senor & Sounds Russian, conceding weight to both of them (three & six pounds respectively) but finished ahead of Protektorat (level weights). He's performing better now than he did to win the National (in RPRs), he's not far off this - in three of the past 10 years, he'd either win or be less than a length away. Only two horses have won the Gold Cup-National double, none have done it this way around.</p><p><i>Protektorat</i> - ran third last season, beaten 17.5L behind a Plus Tard, 2.5L behind Minella Indo. He was unplaced as favourite in the Betway Bowl at Aintree three weeks later, logic would suggest the Gold Cup took plenty out of him. He resumed by winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock when odds-on favourite A Plus Tard flopped, then went to the Cotswold Chase and simply ran out of puff, trailing in fourth of five finishers. I need to see more to convince me he is up to this level.</p><p><i>Royale Pagaille</i> - fifth in last year's Cup but also a long way back in two subsequent runs. Seems to save his best for Haydock and/or heavy tracks. Doesn't get either of those factors here.</p><p><i>Sounds Russian</i> - lightly-raced 8yo who has stepped up to another level this season, but those ratings are still a way off the top echelon. Placings in G2/G3 races such as Meyrick and Cotswold Chases don't compute to winning this championship event.</p><p><i>Stattler</i> - quality chaser with form around the big guns. He won the NH Challenge Cup at the Festival last year, and his two runs this season have been placings behind Minella Indo (beaten a neck, giving the winner 8lbs) and Galopin Des Champs (beaten 8L in the Irish Gold Cup at Dublin Racing Festival, early Feb). Very honest but not brilliant enough to be a topliner. </p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>The favourite is brilliant, but he's never faced a crack field with depth to it. He could just run a way from them like A Plus Tard last year but the Gold Cup is nearly always a gutbuster - I'm inclined to risk him at the price. He might even be a win or bust option. </p><p>The money has come already for A Plus Tard but I'll lean towards the other De Bromhead star Minella Indo. It's rare for a horse to regain the crown after losing it but he's the one with the uninterrupted preparation - I think he's a much better bet each-way at 18/1 than win only at 9/2.</p><p>MINELLA INDO, Bravemansgame, A Plus Tard</p><p>==============</p><p>HUNTER CHASE</p><p>No interest</p><p>==============</p><p>MARES' CHASE</p><p>No interest</p><p>==============</p><p>MARTIN PIPE</p><p>No interest</p><div><br /></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-21600401191461131362023-03-16T09:59:00.005+00:002023-03-16T09:59:45.960+00:00Cheltenham Day 3 - part II<p>Finishing off the card for Thursday...</p><p>================</p><p><b>MAGNERS PLATE</b></p><p><i>Marvel de Cerisy</i> is a lightly-raced chaser trained by Henry de Bromhead who obviously has a high opinion of him, judging by his SPs each start. He never got going last time but looked like he had plenty up his sleeve winning at Punchestown the time before. Just looks the type to take a massive step up on the big stage.</p><p><i>War Lord</i> found the pace too tough last season in the Grade 1s so has dropped down to a nice mark for handicapping. He gave the winner 22lb last time at Wetherby, beaten 5.5L, and that winner, Gemirande, then went on to just get nosed out in the Greatwood. Right in this at a nice price.</p><p><i>Midnight River</i> won nicely here on New Year's Day (new course) but is right up in the weights now. <i>Mars Harper</i> has been running well without winning in decent handicaps in Ireland, you could just imagine Gordon Elliott applying those final touches to tune him up a bit better and be right in this.</p><p>A plethora of chances in a tough race. Anything owned by McManus is flying this week so beware of So Scottish but I'd rather look for a price.</p><p>WAR LORD (ew 22/1), Mars Harper (ew 33/1), Marvel de Cerisy, Midnight River, Seddon</p><p>================</p><p><b>JACK DE BROMHEAD MARES' NOVICE</b></p><p>At first glance this should be a cakewalk for Luccia then you see that Nicky Henderson keeps missing the target in this race, including with Epatante who had very similar form to today's fav. And the favourites have to stop winning sometime.</p><p><i>Lot Of Joy</i> has nice form on the Flat and over hurdles. Purchased out of Sweden, she went close in a couple of big Irish Flat handicaps during the summer, finishing just behind the high-class Echoes In Rain on both occasions, then ran close seconds in two maiden hurdles in big fields. Dropping back to mares' class, she bolted in at Fairyhouse with minimal effort, giving a taste of what's to come. She has a great shot here, a great EW bet as there's always that risk the fav might just be exceptional.</p><p><i>Jetara</i> should give us a run at decent each-way odds, she's not missed a place in five runs this season and has form through some decent ones. She finished ahead of Halka Du Tabert last time but is double the price...</p><p><i>Youwearitwell</i> is in great form but drops back three furlongs when she seemed to improve for the step up in trip. Or perhaps she just got better anyway.</p><p>LOT OF JOY (bet 6/1 ew), Jetara, Youwearitwell</p><p>================</p><p><b>KIM MUIR</b></p><p>Not a fan of this race for the amateurs, will be finishing off the form for Friday.</p><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-87816506690489025812023-03-16T01:25:00.002+00:002023-03-16T01:25:35.339+00:00Cheltenham Day 3 - part I<p>Thursday is always the least loved day of the Festival for me, it pads it out further than I think it needs, and I always find it hardest to find enough time to analyse it properly. Here goes...</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEb55Doip-KqmqXkhq5nKIVUiWbBaI6ZW2f-aPt14uRLZN-qfMtNgLGPmUaxN_x2TArQZ29_LUfpq8AWpGS1RQv2LTkp-F5t9u0BVyvB0Q4c4N-av5p8StxvkbKJ4uDDeVH0YP2T7IWc1iKdnicSZylsxZTDKbRuwgxP7PWnX-a6zon1X434YqFFESbw/s1280/76457-large.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEb55Doip-KqmqXkhq5nKIVUiWbBaI6ZW2f-aPt14uRLZN-qfMtNgLGPmUaxN_x2TArQZ29_LUfpq8AWpGS1RQv2LTkp-F5t9u0BVyvB0Q4c4N-av5p8StxvkbKJ4uDDeVH0YP2T7IWc1iKdnicSZylsxZTDKbRuwgxP7PWnX-a6zon1X434YqFFESbw/w640-h360/76457-large.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>----------------</b></p><p><b>TURNERS NOVICE CHASE</b></p><p><i>Appreciate It</i> - 9yos don't have much of a record in this race, however this guy is very young in terms of his racing, just the twleve starts under his belt. He's two from three over fences, winning the first two with ease, then finishing 10L (started 11/8) behind double Arkle winner, El Fabiolo, off a cracking pace set by Dysart Dynamo, and was beaten a nose into third by Banbridge who opposes him here. Stepping up to two-and-a-half miles, he is unlikely to see the mad pace upfront this time. They say Supreme winners (2021, by 24L) are more likely to stay rather than take the speed options. This is the perfect opportunity to confirm that hypothesis.</p><p><i>Balco Coastal</i> - ran second, beaten 1.75L, in the G1 Scilly Isles Chase behind Gerri Colombe, who missed winning the Brown Advisory yesterday by a nose. He won nicely at Kempton the time before on a soft track but last season he was pulled up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown with the jockey reporting the soft track was an issue. Hmmm. We do know however that Sandown can be very different as a racing surface so not all soft going is the same. Running well but place chance only.</p><p><i>Banbridge</i> - a Festival winner already, having won the Martin Pipe here last year. Switching to the bigger fences this season, he won his first two races with ease before meeting Mighty Potter (similar SPs, but ran third beaten 18.5L) and El Fabiolo (second, beaten 10L) in a pair of Grade 1s. He has mixed his distances this season, last time was over the shorter trip in the Arkle and he kept on well, although the breakneck speed was more likely the instigator of that. He is classy but has a bit to do to overturn the 18L defeat to Mighty Potter in the Drinmore in December.</p><p><i>Christopher Wood</i> - has finished in the first three in all of his three chase runs, but with RPRs significantly below his hurdling exploits. Not today. </p><p><i>James Du Berlais</i> - was thrown into the Champion Hurdle two years ago at his first British/Irish start, then ran second at Punchestown in the Stayers Hurdle, then went chasing after a 19 month break. He wasn't tested in a facile victory at Fairyhouse before trailing Mighty Potter by over 30L in the G1 Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. He was equal second-fav that day (with NH Challenge Cup winner Gaillard Du Mesnil) at 7/2 but hit a couple of fences and eased down on the run-in. Needs to have resolved those errors, the market has lost faith in him.</p><p><i>Mighty Potter</i> - fabulous jumper who has won seven of nine career starts, including four Grade 1s. Three from three over fences, they can't beat him in Ireland and he's only getting better with experience. Wet or dry won't bother him. The only minute concern is he came here last year for the Supreme and got worked up in the preliminaries, crashing into a rail on the way out, got too keen in the race, made a bad mistake at the fifth hurdle and then pulled up. You'd hate to see that affect him again, he's an exceptional horse and a good thing on pure ability. </p><p><i>Notlongtillmay</i> - three from three over fences but in Class 3 races rather than Grade 1s. That's like the League 2 vs the Premier League. No.</p><p><i>Stage Star</i> - British runner with half a chance. As an Owners Group syndicate member (of another, not this one), I have an automatic allegiance to him, but I think he's only running for place money. Won nicely here in late January carrying topweight in a handicap, his other three chase runs were in tiny fields and probably not worth a lot. The Nicholls stable was flying coming into the Festival but haven't landed a blow so far. In the mix if the favourite doesn't turn up, but otherwise chasing place money. </p><p><i>Unexpected Party</i> - it would be a very unexpected party if this thing won. No hope!</p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>Mighty Potter just wins, I'd be just holding back to see him get to the start without any issues.</p><p>MIGHTY POTTER, Appreciate It, Stage Star</p><p>================</p><p><b>PERTEMPS FINAL</b></p><p>This race may have changed this season. Previously runners could qualify by finishing in the first six in the 'heat' races, this year that has been reduced to just the four. So trends around the jinx of winning a qualifier (one of 61 has gone on to win the final in 10 years) may no longer be as valid. </p><p><i>Maxxum</i> was in great form until his last start blip at Leopardstown when finishing 12th of 17. That result was simply too bad to be true, there was a 42L turnaround between he and the winner from their previous clash, six weeks earlier on the same weight terms. A closer look at the tape shows he was crowded for room against the rail and stumbled on the home turn, which probably led to the graze on his cannonbone which came up in the post-race report. Beyond that, he had no room when his rivals were making their runs and the jockey elected to give him a quiet run to the post rather than wasting energy in a race he could no longer win. He has risen from 99 to a rating of 138 since switching from Eugene O'Sullivan to Gordon Elliott, detailing a rapid rise but he has been slugged with a 7lb 'Irish tax' by the BHA handicapper. That still might not be enough to stop him. Davy Russell has been waiting for his Festival winner on mini-comeback, this may be the it.</p><p><i>Coltor</i> has always had a bit of class on the Flat and over hurdles, but is running a bit more often now that he has left Dermot Weld. In two runs this year, he has been placed on the Flat at Kempton and in a Pertemps qualifier at Musselburgh, providing him a fitness to step forward here. If he was still with Weld, I reckon he'd be half the price. Irish horse The Bosses Oscar finished just behind him at Musselburgh, meets him on similar terms and is half the price, thanks to his trainer - Gordon Elliott. </p><p><i>Brandy McQueen</i> is interesting, he has a very light weight after claim having won a qualifier. LTO didn't like quick backup. And Millgreen is probably too old to win at 11, but ran third in this race last year and third at his only two starts since. He's off the same mark as last year, and should benefit from his first-up run a month ago. </p><p>Plenty of chances but Maxxum looks worth a bet in a race you can never be too confident in.</p><p>MAXXUM (Back ~6/1), Coltor, Brandy McQueen, Millgreen</p><p>================</p><p><b>RYANAIR CHASE</b></p><p><i>Blue Lord</i> - main danger to Shishkin, has won six of eight over fences including three Grade 1s, but flopped last time when the jockey reported he he felt flat. I doubt he could beat Shishkin at his best, but the fav has had his quirks in the past.</p><p><i>Chacun Pour Soi</i> - an 11yo now, surely not. Beaten 14L by Blue Lord two starts ago (G1, started fav) then stepped out to 2m4f for the first time and was beaten 18L in a G2 at Thurles. Time catches up with all of us.</p><p><i>Envoi Allen</i> - after running into Energumene at last year's Festival and Punchestown soon after, he stepped up from two to three miles this season with mixed success. He won the Champion Chase at Down Royal in November but then got beaten a long way (51L) in the King George at Kempton. Rachael Blackmore put that down to the tacky going (officially soft), but he's dropped back to 2m4.5f here which should be ideal for him. </p><p><i>French Dynamite</i> - rated 19lbs below Shishkin, has never won anything stronger than a G3 and this isn't the race to chage that.</p><p><i>Fury Road</i> - has only missed the first three once in nine chase starts. Five of his last seven runs have been over 3m+ so the only reason he's running here is that he's not good enough for the Gold Cup. Not good enough here either but a chance to be staying on for a place.</p><p><i>Ga Law</i> - runs well in the top handicaps but not up to these rivals at level weights. </p><p><i>Hitman</i> - has raced ten times in Class 1 (Grade 1/Grade 2) races and has yet to win one. Honest enough to contest the placings but for the win bet, pass. </p><p><i>Janidil</i> - ran second in this last year, 14L behind Allaho, but then ended his season with a couple of error-strewn runs at the Irish festivals. He resumed a month ago winning the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, fitness progression from that suggests he should be competitive here.</p><p><i>Shishkin</i> - quite simply a champion who lost his way here last year pulling up in the Champion Chase, followed by a shock 15L third in the Tingle Creek. He returned with a tongue-tie fitted to win the Ascot Chase, stepping up in trip a month ago, powering away to win by 16L with an RPR just one pound off his best. A repeat of that sees him win comfortably, anything close to it still sees him winning. </p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>The bookies are hoping to see a champion or some favourites beaten in the back half of the week, but it's hard to see this one being rolled. Could I back him at evens? I probably could but I won't be rushing to take it. Perhaps a double with Mighty Potter is in order...</p><p>SHISHKIN, Envoi Allen, Blue Lord</p><p>================</p><p><b>STAYERS' HURDLE</b></p><p><i>Ashdale Bob</i> - has finished in the front four in his past eight starts for precisely zero wins. Place bet consideration only.</p><p><i>Blazing Khal</i> - undefeated over hurdles in four starts, he's had fitness issues coming into the Festival which is an instant red light. He might be back in great order, the trainer is a shrewd operator, but on top of that, he will be ridden by a 5lb claimer without the advantage of those 5lbs. Enough to steer clear of him at the price.</p><p><i>Dashel Drasher</i> - three seconds in a row in Grade 2 races, this is harder. </p><p><i>Flooring Porter</i> - has won the last two editions of the race but curiously, nothing else in that two year period (six other runs). His runs this season seem to be a bit slower on ratings than leading into previous Festivals, he'll need to step up.</p><p><i>Gold Tweet</i> - crossed the Channel in January for a hit & run grab on the Cleeve Hurdle. A repeat of that would take him fairly close again.</p><p><i>Henri La Farceur</i> - French visitor who has only won four out of 20 starts. You'd hope a race like this would require a better winning strike rate to be victorious. </p><p><i>Home By The Lee</i> - was 33/1 here last season finishing 7.5L sixth but has won both starts this time in, the G2 Lismullen at Navan followed by the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, ahead of Ashdale Bob, Flooring Porter and Bob Olinger. He's not for me but I can understand folks making a case for him.</p><p><i>Klassical Dream</i> - won the Supreme four years ago but has only raced ten times since. Has won the big staying hurdles in Ireland but was a stubborn bugger pre-race here last year before fading late into fifth. Ran Teahupoo to a neck in the Hatton's Grace, goes very close at his best. </p><p><i>Paisley Park</i> - a veteran who won this race back in 2019, he's only won one race per season for the past three, and that box has been ticked this season. Was favourite in the Cleeve Hurdle when beaten close to 10L by Gold Tweet, I can't see him reversing that, even on 6lb better terms. </p><p><i>Sire Du Berlais</i> - now 11, he's been getting beaten by several of these rivals since winning the Liverpool Hurdle last spring. Outside hope for a place. </p><p><i>Teahupoo</i> - needs it wet, very wet. His three defeats have been on tracks drier than soft. Won the Hatton's Grace pre-Xmas, ending Honeysuckle's unbeaten run and finishing half a length ahead of Klassical Dream. In the Galmoy in January, he was entitled to thrash the field as he did. Watch the weather.</p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>I've been a Klassical Dream fan for a few years and will follow him off the cliff again. Teahupoo deserves to be top of the market if the course stays at least soft while several others could fight it out for third.</p><p>KLASSICAL DREAM (back 9/1), Teahupoo, Ashdale Bob</p><p> </p><p>(will get to the other three later... hopefully)</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-16773515066360732302023-03-15T00:26:00.000+00:002023-03-15T00:26:47.791+00:00Cheltenham Day 2 - all races<p>Not a lot of joy on the punt on day one, but we go again on Wednesday.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpFPttss3B-a4YDaodA5GCuVs3KvrhUTLKWNHHPghQXSDYe06aa5mT-zDd20pTQOclKvhCroCQlczYTwqOPWBZL0fyK2bbDBDDNPjbv53e-24MGcsGeI79xIyqiX7xLGS-doSsbFlr4KkvU1Nyo3JoLKuPhm-929qu5jAl1pWUNuRUCawTXzMMET72OQ/s1080/big%20fence%20Cheltenham.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1080" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpFPttss3B-a4YDaodA5GCuVs3KvrhUTLKWNHHPghQXSDYe06aa5mT-zDd20pTQOclKvhCroCQlczYTwqOPWBZL0fyK2bbDBDDNPjbv53e-24MGcsGeI79xIyqiX7xLGS-doSsbFlr4KkvU1Nyo3JoLKuPhm-929qu5jAl1pWUNuRUCawTXzMMET72OQ/w640-h640/big%20fence%20Cheltenham.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>BALLYMORE</b></p><p><i>American Mike</i> - star bumper horse last season but kept running into Facile Vega. Has started favourite at all three starts over hurdles but only won the first of them, a fairly weak maiden. Just hasn't progressed, might make a better chaser next year.</p><p><i>Champ Kiely</i> - beaten only once in four hurdle starts, by the Supreme winner Marine Nationale. Went up in trip after that and bounced back to form with a solid win. He's a worthy contender as a 7yo but it's worrying that 16 of the past 17 winners have been aged five or six.</p><p><i>Gaelic Warrior</i> - beaten a short head when a pronounced fav in the Boodles last year, hasn't really been tested in three runs since. His first two runs this season he started at 1/12 and 1/14 and then won a decent pot in the Liffey Handicap Hurdle during the Dublin Racing Festival coming from behind the pace. He jumps right under pressure which cost him here last year and he steps up five furlongs here. Not sure this is the right race for him but amongst the plethora of Willie Mullins' novices, he might just have to run here.</p><p><i>Good Land</i> - an Irish runner, from a stable not named Elliott or Mullins that has already won a race this week (Marine Nationale in the Supreme). Won the Irish equivalent of this at the DRF, it didn't appear to be the deepest race in terms of quality but he fought on well to win. Ridden by the gun young Irish jockey Michael O'Sullivan. Quite short in the market now considering he didn't look that dominant last time out. Also a 7yo (see Champ Kiely).</p><p><i>Hermes Allen</i> - unbeaten in three runs under rules. Unlike Impaire Et Passe, he's more seasoned at the distance, with all of his runs at at least this distance. Might he be too dour now for this trip? He's drifted severely over the past week. Untested so far, can win on wet or dry. </p><p><i>Ho My Lord</i> - bought out of France, debuted over Xmas but fell early, and then won a maiden at Navan without too much effort. Big step up here, unlikely.</p><p><i>Impaire Et Passe</i> - unbeaten in three runs, progressing from a bumper (in France), to a Maiden at Naas and then the G2 Moscow Flyer Novice at Punchestown. They haven't got near him in any of them, the query is what has he beaten? Looks a beast with plenty of upside - has just run away from them in those wins over shorter distances, trip looks a plus for him. Have to be wary of his price getting out of hand though.</p><p><i>Marble Sands</i> - beaten a long way behind Hermes Allen in the Challow (soft track), before beating Rare Edition who flopped in yesterday's Supreme, in a Listed race. Nope.</p><p><i>Master Chewy</i> - was well backed in the Betfair Hurdle (SP 8/1) carrying a light weight, but finished 15L behind the winner. Eight career starts including points, yet to win a race. It won't be here.</p><p><i>Persian Time</i> - well beaten last time in far weaker grade, nope.</p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>Impaire Et Passe just looks set to continue the run of favourites from day one, he looks very special. Champ Kiely should keep his stablemate honest with Hermes Allen filling the placings.</p><p>IMPAIRE ET PASSE, Champ Kiely, Hermes Allen</p><p>--------------------------</p><p><b>BROWN ADVISORY</b></p><p><i>Adamantly Chosen</i> - appears to be second-ranked of the Mullins quintet. He was supplemented for the race at considerable expense so you can assume he's flying at Closutton. His last two results have been second in Grade 1 Novice Chases behind Mighty Potter (banker of the week for many in the Turner Advisory on Thursday) and Gerri Colombe respectively. Nothing wrong with that form, worth a look each-way. </p><p><i>Amirite</i> - Rachael's on this one, that's the only positive I can find for him. Unreliable jumper, won his first chase start but nothing of note since.</p><p><i>Bronn</i> - wasn't far behind Gerri Colombe when both resumed for the season in November but his only start since has been winning a three-runner €7k race while the favourite here has won two Grade 1s. Ranked fourth of the Mullins quintet.</p><p><i>Gerri Colombe</i> - seven starts, seven wins and has improved at each of his jumps runs. Not a horse who kicks clear and win by 20, he does what needs to and switches off, so we don't yet know how much he has left. He hasn't beaten any high class fields yet so it's a leap of faith to believe he has more to come. A damper track suits him better so if it dries out overnight, he might drift a little in the betting, but either way, he's still the one to beat.</p><p><i>I Am Maximus</i> - one win over obstacles, a maiden hurdle but has flattered to deceive since then. Since transferring into the Mullins stable, he's been taking on decent fields but at best running second. Ranked fifth of the stable here.</p><p><i>Ramillies</i> - first across the line in his two chase starts but interfered with the runner-up last time as Naas trying to get to the better ground near the rail and was relegated by the stewards. He battles on without a real turn-of-foot but that need not be a concern in a three-mile race. </p><p><i>Sir Gerhard</i> - beaten only twice in seven runs under Rules, and both times at Punchestown at the end of the season. Just the one go over the big fences, for a 38L win in a three-runner race over two miles, where the second horse didn't perform anywhere near his best. He's high class, but it's a big risk taking him in a Grade 1 off that. Has only run once over more than two miles, winning the Ballymore at last year's Festival on a soft track. Stepping up to three miles is a query.</p><p><i>The Real Whacker</i> - has won twice at Cheltenham, including the Dipper Novices Chase on New Year's Day, this season since switching back to Patrick Neville. Raised 14lbs in the handicap off that rating which puts him right in the mix here. Perhaps might have even pushed for favouritism if out of a bigger stable. His form lines up with Gerri Colombe who beat Thunder Rock & Monmiral (both placed in the Dipper, both carrying 3lbs less) in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown a month later. In with a chance.</p><p><i>Thunder Rock</i> - a sloppy jumper who has finished third behind The Real Whacker (3.5L) and Gerri Colombe (5.5L) at his most recent starts, recording three RP ratings in a row that are flat and non-progressive. The talent is there if he could clean up his jumping.</p><p><i>Thyme Hill</i> - a rare 9yo in a Novice Chase, brought about by his lengthy hurdling career. Was an exceptional staying hurdler, winning the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle and running second to the likes od Champ, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park in other G1s. He bolted in by 15L in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day after having first-time cheekpieces, reversing a result against the handy McFabulous. Ignore the trend against 9yos, it would be a very small sample of runners. </p><p><i>Galia Des Liteaux</i> - mare who has won two of her chase starts very easily on heavy tracks but made a bad mistake early in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day (behind Thyme Hill) and was pulled up. She started 5/2 that day vs 11/1 for Thyme Hill, so there's plenty of belief she is top class. A lot will come down to the state of the track - if it's trending to soft or worse, then she will be strongly supported. Not so sure about that if it dries up.</p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>I can't get excited about any at the front of the market, there's enough concern about each of them to go lukewarm about their current prices. The class of Thyme Hill will see him go a long way here with Adamantly Chosen given a chance at a big price.</p><p>THYME HILL (back 11/1), Adamantly Chosen (back 20/1 ew), Gerri Colombe</p><p>-----------------</p><p><b>CORAL CUP</b></p><p>I'm not going to give this one the runner-by-runner treatment but a quick look through the trends for this race suggests start at the top of the weights, look for one who has raced at the Festival before, no more than two seasons over hurdles....</p><p>You'll never get a tick in every box but <i>Fil Dor</i> stood out for me. A French-bred (tick, 10 of last 21 winners), he has raced eight times over hurdles (18 of last 22 winners have had <10 hurdles runs), trained by Gordon Elliott (3 from last 12) and a 5yo (strong record but small number of runners). He has the services of a 5lb Irish claimer (winning 20% this season), a brilliant record over hurdles (four wins, four seconds from eight - defeated three times in G1s by Vauban) and he has earned top weight. The biggest field he has faced was a 15-runner chase, which he won (over the handy Saint Roi), giving him a taste of chaos of this race. One thing he hasn't done though is race over this trip, he steps up half a mile beyond anything he has run over before.</p><p>JP McManus always has something planned for a Festival handicap (had two of first four in the Boodles Juv), and this one could be getting in lightly. <i>Icare Allen</i> ran fourth in the Triumph last year (Fil Dor ran second) and resumed this season in a feature hurdle at Fairyhouse, running third carrying topweight. He then was pointed at the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but fell foul of that track's lack of watering, hating the firmer ground. He gets his ground here, he's always looked in need of a longer trip, he'll have been aimed at this race for some time and prepared to the minute for this.</p><p><i>Red Risk</i> has been following the Coral-sponsored races around, winning a handicap at Newbury in November thne just missing at Kempton in the Lanzarote. He might now be too high in the handicap to contend for the win but he's flying this season and could run into the placings at a big price.</p><p>FIL DOR (back 12/1), Icare Allen (back 25/1 ew), Red Risk, Riaan.</p><p>-----------------</p><p><b>QM CHAMPION CHASE</b></p><p><i>Captain Guinness</i> - rated too high for the handicaps, not good enough to win at Grade 1 level (0/9). Not here. </p><p><i>Editeur Du Gite</i> - beat Edwardstone in the Desert Orchid when the 2/5 fav blundered, but then backed it up in the Clarence House (rescheduled to run this season at Cheltenham) to beat both the favourites here. Has found another gear this season, he's not getting much respect considering those two results...</p><p><i>Edwardstone</i> - the star novice chaser of last season who won the Arkle, he won the Tingle Creek in December which shot his rating up again, before consecutive defeats to Editeur Du Gite. He looked like he'd run straight by in the Clarence House but didn't get up the hill as expected. One win, one second from five runs here, alarm bells sounding if you want to take 7/4. </p><p><i>Energumene</i> - boom horse who has won eight out of ten starts over fences, with those losses being in the last two Clarence Houses, to Shishkin in 2022 and Editeur Du Gite (and Edwardstone) more recently. He looked set to win both of those but was run down by a champ the first time and blundered the final fence the last time. He'll probably look like he'll win coming up to the last fence, backers might chew their nails down to the base in the run to the post! </p><p><i>Funambule Sivola</i> - beaten heavily in the past behind the 'three E's, and history repeat itself here. The question is whether it will be all of them at once.</p><p><i>Greaneteen</i> - started shorter (2/1 vs 5/1) against Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek in December, but ended up 9L behind him. In his only run since, he finished behind Funambule Sivola (SP 1/2) with no obvious excuses. He'd be pushing for favouritism without those two results, now it seems like he's in decline. A chance, but unlikely. </p><p><i>Nube Negra</i> - nearly won this two years ago, but more recently has been beaten over 10L by Greaneteen (twice) and Editeur Du Gite. </p><p><u>Summary</u></p><p>It comes down to three chances here. Edwardstone is too short, Energumene probably is as well but not as much while Editeur Du Gite still isn't getting the credit he deserves. By that logic, the order has to be:</p><p>EDITEUR DU GITE, Energumene, Edwardstone</p><p>------------------</p><p><b>CROSS-COUNTRY</b></p><p>Gordon Elliott now takes this race seriously with his Grand National fancies - last year's winner Delta Work and last year's Gold Cup second favourite Galvin lead his four-pronged team here and dominate the betting. Take your pick which way to go but they should be too classy for the rest.</p><p>DELTA WORK, Galvin, Gin On Lime</p><p>--------------------</p><p><b>GRAND ANNUAL</b></p><p>Fences have turned a disappointing former Flat racer and hurdler <i>Final Orders</i> into a genuine racehorse, winning five of his six chase starts and only missing by a length in the other. The gap between his hurdle and chase ratings is a remarkable 48lbs and there's no guarantee he has stopped there. Gavin Cromwell is no stranger to winning FEstival races, he'll be in prime condition for this.</p><p><i>Before Midnight</i> has first-time cheekpieces and a tongue tie applied by trainer Sam Thomas in an attempt to spark him up. He hasn't been far away in recent runs, I wouldn't take a lot for him to hit the front again.</p><p><i>Dinoblue</i> started favourite in the Mares Novice Hurdle here last year off just one run but things didn't work out for her. This season she has switched to chasing with a win and two seconds from three races, allowing her to sneak in at the bottom of the weights. McManus and Mullins, she'll go close.</p><p>FINAL ORDERS (back 6/1), Before Midnight, Dinoblue</p><p>---------------------</p><p><b>CHAMPION BUMPER</b></p><p>Who honestly has a clue here? Not me, pass.</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804298397747224505.post-73390202536022522922023-03-14T09:47:00.000+00:002023-03-14T09:47:26.992+00:00Cheltenham Day 1 - the other races<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Now for the other races on today's card...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYWbwvRZyTULzMngziN6Xgcx36VKlZCZvZbhjOuZr6y5OT8IRkcBoLkFOJ1pLwoUx81Zs4hF9rGayGaFsxiMZoHyEjLpe5bqwnOQdLUUlb5agH1Rr_smvqeXY-tdxtvuAunB5or_pRJTsusSryJZ1kOj1T35ATqwC0rnn0mPLpwQcBglK8oxVRmoresA/s615/chelt%20fest%20fence.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="615" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYWbwvRZyTULzMngziN6Xgcx36VKlZCZvZbhjOuZr6y5OT8IRkcBoLkFOJ1pLwoUx81Zs4hF9rGayGaFsxiMZoHyEjLpe5bqwnOQdLUUlb5agH1Rr_smvqeXY-tdxtvuAunB5or_pRJTsusSryJZ1kOj1T35ATqwC0rnn0mPLpwQcBglK8oxVRmoresA/s16000/chelt%20fest%20fence.jpg" /></a></div><p></p><p><b>R3, 1450. ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE</b></p><p>A mighty difficult three mile handicap chase which usually goes to the British and to a runner high in the market, not what you'd expect at the Festival! There's the usual baffling mix of horses on the rise, older horses dropping down the handicap and trainers who can do nothing all season but flick the switch at Cheltenham time...</p><p>I find it hard to go against <i>Monbeg Genius</i>, a lightly-raced chaser trained by shrewd handicap trainer Jonjo O'Neill. He's won three in a row, all at around this distance, all slightly different tests. He wanted to idle in front when nicely clear at Chepstow last time but responded well when shaken up. A bigger field should keep him switched on, and despite going up 18lbs from his past three runs, I still think there's something in hand.</p><p><i>Oscar Elite</i> ran third in this race last year and is only one pound higher in the weights. His form since has been mixed but he won comfortably at Ascot last time and a return to a race he went so close in last time should be ideal for him. </p><p><i>Nassalam</i> has kept on well at his last two starts here, he hasn't run over three miles before which is a slight concern while <i>Tea Clipper</i> is a bit of a pack animal who just keeps on running. He's finished third and fourth in big handicaps at the last two Festivals, he'll be sticking on near the placings.</p><p>MONBEG GENIUS (bet 7/1+), Oscar Elite, Nassalam, Tea Clipper</p><p><b>---------------------</b></p><p><b>R6, 1650. BOODLES JUV HURDLE</b></p><p>This might be as simple as just backing <i>Sir Allen</i> - three out of the past four winners of the Naas 4yo Novice Hurdle have gone on to win this race (but another six of the past 10 winners have started 25/1+!). He's certainly a good starting point. An ex-Flat horse, he's had three runs over hurdles, commencing with a second to Blood Destiny (currently equal fav for the Triumph on Friday), a Punchestown maiden win (both 20 horse fields) and that win at Naas against four of today's rivals, including second favourite <i>Byker</i>. Sir Allen had 7lbs in his favour that day, this time he switches to a senior jockey rather than a 7lb claimer, while Byker goes from a professional to a 5lb claimer. All in all, that will come to a rather significant 15lb turnaround. </p><p>Byker started fav on that day at Naas (under a senior rider), off the back of a maiden hurdle win there a fortnight before, when ridden by Charles Byrnes' son Philip, as he will be today.</p><p>Favourite <i>Tekau</i> ran third during the Dublin Racing Festival behind Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth, also leading chances in the Triumph, but went up 9lbs for that run which makes his task a wee bit harder. </p><p><i>Bad</i> has been bought out of France and is supposedly 10lb light on his French ability. I'll believe that when I see it but French-breds have a good record in this race, nine of the last 18 winners of this race began their careers in France. But it's Ben Pauling's other runner I think has a great chance at the weights. <i>Samuel Spade</i> won on hurdling debut at Kempton over Xmas, then ran second to Perseus Way carrying an 8lb penalty at Huntingdon a few weeks later before walloping a weak field there three weeks ago. He meets Perseus Way 12lbs better for a 3L defeat - the question is whether the British form stacks up to races in Ireland.</p><p>SIR ALLEN (bet 10/1+), Samuel Spade, Tekao, Morning Soldier</p><p>------------------------</p><p><b>R7, 1730. NH CHALLENGE CUP</b></p><p>Never a fan of amateur races in a big festival but here it is. <i>Gaillard Du Mesnil</i> will start a clear favourite, with Paul Mullins, the amateur who regularly rides in pro races, aboard. He has at least 8lb in hand on the field according to the handicapper, and yet this race is on level weights. To pick a fault, he's only won once in eight starts over fences so do you really want to lump on at evens?</p><p>No real interest in the race but I'll side with <i>Minella Crooner</i>, he was classy last season over hurdles, and must have some upside left to come</p><p>MINELLA CROONER (interest bet 7/1+), Gaillard Du Mesnil, Coolvalla</p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com0