More from @wheelie1977, a former top Irish cyclist who now focuses on the betting side of professional cycling. He offers these tips for subscription first, and then makes them free a day or so later. His tips throughout recent months on the Giro D'Italia and the Tour de France have been outstanding. You can read more of his excellent work on his website - Wheeliebets.
Men's Individual Time Trial
I'm taking a hammering on this already as Tony Martin is all but a losing docket due to his crash in the Tour de France. I need to look at alternatives to the Grand Tour contenders and I'm surprised to see Taylor Phinney at 66/1 with a bookmaker paying 3 places at quarter the odds.
Phinney entered the Giro D'Italia as favourite to land the 2 time trials. He succeeded in the first shattering all others best times in a masterful display despite not having raced in a month leading up to the event. He subsequently crashed and messed up his leg yet continued in the first of our Grand Tours finishing well down in the final time trial.
We haven't seen him in any event to date but it's without doubt that he's been locked away training for this event. He made the U.S. team on merit ahead of some of the more fancied riders. He's a former World Champion Under 23 rider and is as gifted on the track as he is on the road.
In essence he does his best work fresh so this freshness needs to be compared to the riders who have just finished a 3 week stint around France. Who can he go better than?
I'm certain that Tony Martin and Sylvain Chavenal do not have enough time to recover to play a part. If you discount those 2 then I can think of only 4 others who can be counted. Unfortunately we cannot leave Wiggins and Froome out of the equation as both are surely the best in the World going on the Tour form. However that's judged against other Tour riders all fatigued at the end of 3 weeks. Who has the recovery powers to land a blow?
If recovering from their exertions in the Tour aren't bad enough, the British members need to ride a gruelling race on Saturday to make sure Cavendish wins the road race. Is it all too much for the them?
Fabian Cancellara is obviously the dark horse but his powers are waning and he himself is not altogether in fantastic form. Obviously a massive favourite but he couldn't come close to Wiggins after a week riding so will need to have stepped up again in the intervening period. I think he could take Froome again but maybe not Wiggins.
The last rider I think may be a dark horse for the podium is Luis Leon Sanchez who surprised me with his showing on Saturday. However this is a much more difficult test and I think I would take Phinney any day over him.
In short, it's a tough ask to medal in this race against 2 inform Brits and a Cancellara but if any of them is off their game, the 66/1 is far too big a price. Don't get me wrong, I really can't see Wiggins faltering and he's one for you shorties but surely there's value in Phinney given all his promise to date?
I'm taking the 66/1 available hopefully recouping some losses on Martin.
Advised Bet
1pt e/w @ 66/1 Taylor Phinney Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1,2,3)
Originally posted 24/7/12 (There's still some 66/1 win only available, with some 50/1 1/3 odds, 1,2)
Men's Individual Time Trial
I'm taking a hammering on this already as Tony Martin is all but a losing docket due to his crash in the Tour de France. I need to look at alternatives to the Grand Tour contenders and I'm surprised to see Taylor Phinney at 66/1 with a bookmaker paying 3 places at quarter the odds.
Phinney entered the Giro D'Italia as favourite to land the 2 time trials. He succeeded in the first shattering all others best times in a masterful display despite not having raced in a month leading up to the event. He subsequently crashed and messed up his leg yet continued in the first of our Grand Tours finishing well down in the final time trial.
We haven't seen him in any event to date but it's without doubt that he's been locked away training for this event. He made the U.S. team on merit ahead of some of the more fancied riders. He's a former World Champion Under 23 rider and is as gifted on the track as he is on the road.
In essence he does his best work fresh so this freshness needs to be compared to the riders who have just finished a 3 week stint around France. Who can he go better than?
I'm certain that Tony Martin and Sylvain Chavenal do not have enough time to recover to play a part. If you discount those 2 then I can think of only 4 others who can be counted. Unfortunately we cannot leave Wiggins and Froome out of the equation as both are surely the best in the World going on the Tour form. However that's judged against other Tour riders all fatigued at the end of 3 weeks. Who has the recovery powers to land a blow?
If recovering from their exertions in the Tour aren't bad enough, the British members need to ride a gruelling race on Saturday to make sure Cavendish wins the road race. Is it all too much for the them?
Fabian Cancellara is obviously the dark horse but his powers are waning and he himself is not altogether in fantastic form. Obviously a massive favourite but he couldn't come close to Wiggins after a week riding so will need to have stepped up again in the intervening period. I think he could take Froome again but maybe not Wiggins.
The last rider I think may be a dark horse for the podium is Luis Leon Sanchez who surprised me with his showing on Saturday. However this is a much more difficult test and I think I would take Phinney any day over him.
In short, it's a tough ask to medal in this race against 2 inform Brits and a Cancellara but if any of them is off their game, the 66/1 is far too big a price. Don't get me wrong, I really can't see Wiggins faltering and he's one for you shorties but surely there's value in Phinney given all his promise to date?
I'm taking the 66/1 available hopefully recouping some losses on Martin.
Advised Bet
1pt e/w @ 66/1 Taylor Phinney Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1,2,3)
Originally posted 24/7/12 (There's still some 66/1 win only available, with some 50/1 1/3 odds, 1,2)
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