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The NBA betting scandal

The scandal that was bound to happen has been all over the news in recent days. As per any betting scandal, this is why the industry needs to be regulated - without it, these things still happen, they just don’t get found.  US sports are ripe for picking because of their obsession with player props. You’ll hear calls for ‘why not just offer the overs?’ but that then allows the book to apply huge  and invisible margins because they won’t offer both sides - so then customers just get ripped off even more.  And any restrictions you impose on licensed books just opens the door to the black market/offshore books that have always been massive in the US market. There’s been plenty written about this already, much of it overblown nonsense from people who don’t understand it in enough depth. One voice that should be respected though is Nate Silver and his Substack post is very well constructed. https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/the-nba-gambling-scandal-explained
Recent posts

Cox Plate preview

THE LADBROKES COX PLATE The Valley, Melbourne AU$6.05m, Group 1, WFA 1740 local time, 0740 BST A very interesting race this year. Perhaps not the finest field in history, not the biggest, but it is the last to be run at The Valley (formerly known as Moonee Valley) under the current configuration. The whole place will be knocked down or ripped up in order to completely rebuild the place with a different track orientation and a more traditional length of home straight. It will all change... A year ago, Via Sistina blew them away in one of the world's best performances on the year. This season, at least down in Melbourne, she's not quite so invincible. Races haven't been run to suit, she's drawn inside each time, she's been running OK without being the superstar that scared off any international rivals. Third behind Mr Brightside in the Makybe Diva then third behind Sir Delius in the Turnbull, after opening her campaign with a win in the Winx Stakes in Sydney. Perhaps...

The Sportsbet Caulfield Cup 2025

Before the creation of the northern slot race, this day was always known as Caulfield Cup Day. Hopefully no Sweet Caroline here... CAULFIELD CUP 2400m, Group 1 Handicap Of AU$5million 1715 local, 0715 BST 1. Vauban - after two years of visiting and flopping n the Melbourne Cup, he was bought by locals and sent to the Waterhouse & Bott camp. Has shown good fresh form, winning the G3 Sky High in the autumn and finishing third in the G2 Chelmsford behind Lindemann and Sir Delius six weeks ago, but has tapered off later in each campaign. Didn't have much luck in the Metropolitan behind Royal Supremacy last time, meets that horse 2kg better off for 1.36L defeat. I think he could have bullocked his way out into space in that race, but Tim Clark probably wasn't too keen on risking a suspension that would put him out of Everest day Is classy enough to win but at the weights, we need to see his very best. Jockey upgrade to Blake Shinn, topweights often run well here but can he get ...

The King is in town for the Everest

The Everest Randwick, WFA, Group 1 Slot Race 1200m, Sat 1615 local, 0615 BST Of AU$20m, but only $7m to the winner. The sprint race of the year returns to Randwick with the best horse in the world dominating the market. The Aussie-bred, expat Aussie-trained, Ka Ying Rising has arrived in town and deservedly has all the locals running scared. So much so that some twat last weekend created a fake social media acct to spread rumours he might be scratched to blatantly manipulate the markets. The sheep backed everything else in the market at the ‘value’ prices while I’ll bet London to a brick that forensic investigation will absolutely confirm the higher odds on KYR were taken by those involved. But Racing NSW just loves the free publicity behind it - not sure Victorian stewards would look upon it in the same way.  It’s a sellout crowd at Randwick but that’s like selling out an English cricket ground compared to the MCG - well done but it’s still not even half the crowd of Melbourne Cu...

Royal Ascot Friday & Saturday

 No detailed preview for the next two days as I'll be on the road, but some quick notes... Commonwealth Cup I was doing some research on successful and unsuccessful sires at Royal Ascot yesterday and notably found that both Kodiac (sire of Babouche) and Lope De Vega (sire of Shadow of Light and Jonquil) have terrible records at the meeting. Now, there are always exceptions to the rule and all three of these are very, very good... but I wouldn't be lumping on heavily. Coronation Stakes Zarigana from France looks the one to beat, but she only beat Shes Perfect on protest, and if you go by that horse's UK form, she's not top level, so I have a question mark on the depth of the form. I like Falakeyah , she ticks a lot of boxs - Shadwell, Crowley, Burrows, by New Bay... King Edward VII Amiloc would have been competitive in the Derby had the prudes not ruled him out because he's lost his nuts. Zahrann looks useful but not sure on the depth of form. SATURDAY Hardwicke Sta...

Royal Ascot Day 3 preview

ROYAL ASCOT THURSDAY NORFOLK STAKES Another big field juvenile sprint, don't be put off by the odds, the last four winners have been 14/1, 50/1, 150/1, 12/1 and no favourite has won since 2008. Aidan O'Brien had an odds-on shot, Whistlejacket, turned over in this last year. 1. Afjan   - impressive winner in a newcomers' race at Chantilly in a good time. Bred to be quick, drawn near the inside which hasn't been an advantage as yet. 3. Charles Darwin - one of the shortest-priced favourites of the week and the stable is cleaning up in the 2yo races. Has won his last two starts conclusively, looking very hard to beat. 4. Clear Force - trained by Karl Burke, beat the future Marygate winner to win easily at Ripon, then disappointed in the National Stakes at Sandown. Unless there was an excuse, he's going to need a big lift to match these. 7. First Legion - won nicely at York on debut but was then beaten at Sandown, regressing slightly in rating. Cost half a million at ...

Royal Ascot Day 2 preview

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 2 QUEEN MARY There's a lot of chaff in this race, I'd be here all night if I went through them all properly. 1. America - drawn the outside rail but struggled to win at Bath last time. 2. Caitlin G - squillions but will have to have a token bet on her after my daughter... 3. Cardiff By The Sea - ran well against one of the better Coolmore colts on debut, recording a decent RPR. Not out of it. 9. Harry's Girl - beaten in the final strides at York last time in the Marygate, by the 33/1 shot Secret Hideaway who held her cover into the stiff headwind until very late. The stable have a high opinion of this one but she's a bit of a worry in the barriers - could easily miss the start by three lengths. Rather handy, worth the risk at 15/1+. 11. Lennilu - US raider trained by the astute Patrick Biancone. Has won both starts comfortably so far, in rather different circumstances. She debuted at Keeneland on the dirt (slop, it was wet!), stalked the lead and ra...

Royal Ascot Day 1 preview

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 1 Warm day, dry ground, cracking fields in the big races and a lot of people in ridiculous top hats & morning suits melting. Bring it on! QUEEN ANNE 1. Cairo - ran eighth in this race last year at 150/1 and hasn't miraculously improved in the meantime. No hope. 2. Carl Spackler - curious runner for the Yulong empire and leading Australian trainer Ciaron Maher, having just been purchased out of the Chad Brown camp in the US. He's won 8/12 starts, including G1 races such as the Fourstardave and the Maker's Mile Handicap. Loves to sit on speed and kick away. Champion American mare Tepin won this race back in 2016 when everyone wrote off the US turf form. His form measures up nicely against her and the history of this race. Barring Baaeed and Frankel's years, his best would be good enough to win this. If you were curious about the name - it's Bill Murray's character in Caddyshack. 3. Dancing Gemini - the David against Goliath prospect, running...

Cheltenham 2025 - Day 4 preview

Still in front at the time of writing, let's keep it that way! TRIUMPH HURDLE The championship race of juvenile hurdling. This used to be the only option for juveniles, now there's a handicap as well (ah bless him, Puturhandstogether) which see trainers be more realistic with their plans if not part of the big stables. Willie Mullins has a ridiculous 11 of the 18 runners here, although none in single figures. 1. Blue Lemons - weird to see a son of Blue Point here, but he is out of a Galileo mare. One start for a nice win at Gowran Park but there'll be several better than him here. 2. Charlus - struggled to beat Holy See on Irish debut after being bought out of France. That horse finished a mile back in the Fred Winter. 3. East India Dock - useful on the Flat, now very good over hurdles. Has won all three starts in this discipline, easily over Hot Fuss, Static and Stencil respectively who were all in the Fred Winter. Two of those wins were here (one on each course), that...