The final day of the Flemington carnival is a cracker and this mares' race has an exceptionally talented favourite... but is it that simple for this leg of the quaddie? Dissecting the race in detail is Rick Williams from Champion Picks. Follow him on Twitter via @Rick_WilliamsCP
Pacemap
***Please note map is 'pre settling' positions
Map notes
Kasane took a sit handy to the speed on Cup day and with the step out to 2000m we expect that they will look to cross early and get a sit handy which looks the place to be. Khandallah should work over to lead them up without hassle as there is little speed inside of her. The rest just look like they will all fall into place.
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Runner notes (short)
Strong chance
Some chance
No chance
1 SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) - Came off of a hot speed at MV to beat good field. At WFA. 2000 record great. Unders
2 INVEST - 2000m G1 winner. Excellent last week when +9.1 at 1600. Ready for strong 2000
3 MIDNIGHT MARTINI - Not suited last start in slowly ran race. Cranbourne Cup win excellent
4 CRAFTY IRNA - #2 +11.5 2000 RHIL three back. Nice draw, well weighted, D Oliver.
5 KASANE - Excellent win Cup day. +1kg here. great on the map, race cup day strong
6 FULL OF SPIRIT - Meets Invest 2.5kg better for 0.90L. Big finish, looking for 2000
7 LAKE SENTENTIA - Great win last start. Negative final split though so working around.
8 MANILA JEWEL - Can't win. Needs to make up 6.2L to beat Lake Sententia. Can't improve that much
9 KHANDALLAH - Was excellent last start as was a sitting duck and only Lake Sententia beat her. Too hard here
10 ROCK HIT - Got too far back at MV. Worked very hard though the middle stages of the races then died on the run
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Race overview
Silent Achiever won very well last start but has come up very short. She is going to get back, probably just an even tempo but she has a good sprint on her and that can get her out of trouble. She does look risky at the shorts from back there. Crafty Irna ran very big three back in the Stout Hearted race, she looks to be value around the $10 and does appeal more at 2000m. Invest and Full Of Spirit both come through the same race, Full Of Spirit gets the weight swing but Invest was stronger over the concluding stages. Both have performed well at 2000 in the past and Invest looks a big price at $41. Kasane ran very well on Cup day and beat some mares who had been racing very well, this is a step up but she looks to me like she will get herself into a good spot in the run and if she can repeat the Cup day effort then she is going to be in the finish. Midnight Martini just wasn't suited at Moonee Valley as they went so slow through the first part of the race. Her form looks solid through the Cranbourne Cup but I just feel that she has probably peaked this prep and some of the others haven't . Happy to stay away from the runners coming through the MV night meeting in Rock Hit, Lake Sententia and Khandallah.
What to do
Silent Achiever looks a star so we don't really want to charge into taking it on but some small e/w bets against her look a fair option. Kasane at $31 looks a big price and can be backed each way, so can Invest at $41. Don't go too silly (small risk high reward play)but if you shape your bets 1 x 3 and go small we only need one to run a place to make some dollars. If one wins it’s a fill up.
Pacemap
***Please note map is 'pre settling' positions
Map notes
Kasane took a sit handy to the speed on Cup day and with the step out to 2000m we expect that they will look to cross early and get a sit handy which looks the place to be. Khandallah should work over to lead them up without hassle as there is little speed inside of her. The rest just look like they will all fall into place.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Runner notes (short)
Strong chance
Some chance
No chance
1 SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) - Came off of a hot speed at MV to beat good field. At WFA. 2000 record great. Unders
2 INVEST - 2000m G1 winner. Excellent last week when +9.1 at 1600. Ready for strong 2000
3 MIDNIGHT MARTINI - Not suited last start in slowly ran race. Cranbourne Cup win excellent
4 CRAFTY IRNA - #2 +11.5 2000 RHIL three back. Nice draw, well weighted, D Oliver.
5 KASANE - Excellent win Cup day. +1kg here. great on the map, race cup day strong
6 FULL OF SPIRIT - Meets Invest 2.5kg better for 0.90L. Big finish, looking for 2000
7 LAKE SENTENTIA - Great win last start. Negative final split though so working around.
8 MANILA JEWEL - Can't win. Needs to make up 6.2L to beat Lake Sententia. Can't improve that much
9 KHANDALLAH - Was excellent last start as was a sitting duck and only Lake Sententia beat her. Too hard here
10 ROCK HIT - Got too far back at MV. Worked very hard though the middle stages of the races then died on the run
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Race overview
Silent Achiever won very well last start but has come up very short. She is going to get back, probably just an even tempo but she has a good sprint on her and that can get her out of trouble. She does look risky at the shorts from back there. Crafty Irna ran very big three back in the Stout Hearted race, she looks to be value around the $10 and does appeal more at 2000m. Invest and Full Of Spirit both come through the same race, Full Of Spirit gets the weight swing but Invest was stronger over the concluding stages. Both have performed well at 2000 in the past and Invest looks a big price at $41. Kasane ran very well on Cup day and beat some mares who had been racing very well, this is a step up but she looks to me like she will get herself into a good spot in the run and if she can repeat the Cup day effort then she is going to be in the finish. Midnight Martini just wasn't suited at Moonee Valley as they went so slow through the first part of the race. Her form looks solid through the Cranbourne Cup but I just feel that she has probably peaked this prep and some of the others haven't . Happy to stay away from the runners coming through the MV night meeting in Rock Hit, Lake Sententia and Khandallah.
What to do
Silent Achiever looks a star so we don't really want to charge into taking it on but some small e/w bets against her look a fair option. Kasane at $31 looks a big price and can be backed each way, so can Invest at $41. Don't go too silly (small risk high reward play)but if you shape your bets 1 x 3 and go small we only need one to run a place to make some dollars. If one wins it’s a fill up.
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