The King is in town for the Everest

The Everest
Randwick, WFA, Group 1 Slot Race
1200m, Sat 1615 local, 0615 BST
Of AU$20m, but only $7m to the winner.

The sprint race of the year returns to Randwick with the best horse in the world dominating the market. The Aussie-bred, expat Aussie-trained, Ka Ying Rising has arrived in town and deservedly has all the locals running scared. So much so that some twat last weekend created a fake social media acct to spread rumours he might be scratched to blatantly manipulate the markets. The sheep backed everything else in the market at the ‘value’ prices while I’ll bet London to a brick that forensic investigation will absolutely confirm the higher odds on KYR were taken by those involved. But Racing NSW just loves the free publicity behind it - not sure Victorian stewards would look upon it in the same way. 

It’s a sellout crowd at Randwick but that’s like selling out an English cricket ground compared to the MCG - well done but it’s still not even half the crowd of Melbourne Cup day. It’ll be a ‘younger generation’ crowd apparently - so why oh why do they play that god awful overrated and overplayed Sweet fucking Caroline song before the race? Instant destruction of credibility. Have your wanky DJ bouncing around playing electronic shit and looking like a tool ‘scratching’ the vinyl records that haven’t been used in decades, but Neil Diamond? Give it a bloody rest!

<rant over>

Onto the race. Take away the favourite and it’s not a vintage field. The depth certainly runs out at the bottom, but it's understandable why. One danger of slot races is when you have a superstar in that sector. The Everest came up after the career of Black Caviar - if we have KYR potentially coming back to win a second or third Everest, who’d want to be paying the enormous slot fees? But then again, part of the $20m pot is every runner getting their 700k back so perhaps that’s a moot point.

Positives for KYR

• He’s a superstar
• Blows them away in Hong Kong
• Rates far higher than any of these. Only Black Caviar, of Australian sprinters, has ever rated higher 
• Drawn perfectly
• Adaptable, can push forward or sit off the pace

Negatives

• first time in Sydney
• We think he’s travelled well, but you never quite know until the day
• didn't impress in a recent trial, but he was straight out of quarantine, wasn't pushed and the track was soft. (Linebacker, who was all out to win that trial, is favourite in the following race)
• HK doesn’t have the depth that Australia has in sprinting ranks so he's been beating the same pool of horses over and over

The World Pool with the heavily Asian influence will be something like 1.2-1.3 while bookies are more likely to offer 1.6-1.7.

Probably a touch short for me (1.9 would tempt) but I’d love to see him blow them away.

Of the rest, War Machine appeals the most. He’s turned over a new leaf since joining the Hayes brothers stable (sons of KYR’s trainer David Hayes). He won the G1 Stradbroke in June and then bolted in when resuming a fortnight ago in the Gilgai. Still improving and if there’s a weakness in the favourite, he might be the one to capitalise. 

Joliestar and Lady Shenandoah represent the Waller stable. The former started 5/1 last year and underperformed (seventh, only beaten 1.59L) but did win the Newmarket at Flemington and the G2 Shorts when resuming a month ago, while the latter was favourite for the G1 Manikato three weeks ago at Moonee Valley and flopped, although she did draw the outside. She won a series of fillies & mares Group races in the autumn but can she repeat that against the boys?

Jimmysstar won the All Aged Stakes here in the autumn (ahead of Joliestar) when they turned him into a 1400m horse. Has a powerful finish but will be relying on KYR slowing down - that’s not a given.

Tempted is the mystery 3yo filly, gets a decent weight allowance but is she mature enough to take on the world’s best? Interesting that Godolphin have rolled the dice with a filly (that they would retain for breeding anyway) rather than a colt who would potentially lose value if he proved to be out of his depth. Should get a soft run on the rail, assuming she can get clear when it counts. Third in the Golden Slipper, third in the Golden Rose, both times behind Wodeton who would be left for dust here. 

Briasa and Angel Capital are the only other two place chances, and need a bit of luck to be in the mix but beyond that they’re all huge odds.

Ka Ying Rising

War Machine

Jimmysstar