Derby preview 2026

Onto the big one which sadly looks like it will be blighted by inclement weather scattered throughout the day. Hopefully we have a track surface where it's not a mad race to the grandstand rail as soon as they hit the straight. The forecast has quite a bit of predicted rain - will the outside get chopped up so much jockeys will return to the inside? It will also be mighty windy with nasty gusts of up to 50mph. A good day for watching on TV...

It could get a bit damp on those open-topped buses.

A strong run in the Oaks yesterday from A La Prochaine, if only she'd not gotten so worked up on the way to the gates. The winner though was mighty impressive.

THE BETFRED DERBY
Epsom
£2,000,000
Group 1 for 3yo Colts & Fillies, no Geldings
1m4f
1600 local, Sat 0100 AEST

1. Action

- regally-bred Coolmore colt, 3/4 brother to last year's winner Lambourn, who has one win from six career starts. Since winning his maiden, he's been thrown against the good'uns, running a close third to (2000 Guineas winner) Bow Echo in the G2 Royal Lodge, and second to stablemate and Prix du Jockey Club second, Hawk Mountain in the G1 Futurity to finish his juvenile season. He disappointed when resuming in the Bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown, but restored his ability when running second to Item in the G2 Dante at York. Around the mark, but not convinced he's a winner.

2. Alderman

- probably not named after the classy Australian swing bowler of the 80s who would have loved conditions at Lord's this week. None from three and a long way out of the ratings, so he needs a miracle. Breeding is on his side for this trip but has been beaten at least four lengths in his three maidens. He's dreaming...

3. Ancient Egypt

- intriguing runner from Amo Racing, who have come close a couple of times in recent years, with King Of Steel and Mojo Star at huge odds. Won a Listed race over 1m2f at Newmarket a month ago, ahead of My Love Is King. That horse was narrowly beaten by leading contender here Maltese Cross at his previous run. The concern with the Newmarket win was that he started the 16/1 outsider in a field of five after ending last season with a disappointing run in the Royal Lodge. But some of that might be the Charlie Johnston effect - I don't think the market rates him yet as a trainer, despite running second last year with Lazy Griff. Cost £1.1m as a yearling, well bred, capable of a massive step up. Has won three from four so he knows how to find the line. Genuine chance at odds.

4. A Taste Of Glory

- not much to rave about here. Has won a maiden and a Class 4 handicap, but ran last in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud late last year and last in the Lingfield Derby Trial. But Andrew Balding has got a couple of 'no-hopers' from this ownership into the first five in recent years (Sayedaty Sadaty, Hoo Ya Mal and Khalifa Sat).

5. Balzac

- won a novice on the all-weather in April, but has been beaten by Derby types (Maltese Cross x2, Saxon Street) at each other start. Bred for the trip, not a million miles away on ratings but not expecting him to challenge.

6. Bay Of Brilliance

- just nosed out in the Lingfield Derby Trial by Maltese Cross when resuming this season. He signed off his 2yo year with a 8.5L thumping of Derby rank outsider, Poker, in a Redcar Novice. The trip won't be an issue on breeding, and he's a half-brother Cheltenham Festival winner and regular Melbourne Cup runner Absurde. In the mix and has won on both Good-to-Soft and Soft going.

7. Benvenuto Cellini

- the clear race favourite after a dominant win in the G3 Chester Vase, a race which trainer Aidan O'Brien has used many times for his top-class colts. Bolted in by 4.25L that day but he was supposed to, with an SP of 2/9 in a five-horse race. As a 2yo, he won a Leopardstown G2 easily against three rivals and ran third to stablemates Hawk Mountain and Action in the G1 Futurity, apparently not liking the heavy ground. Did run second on debut in a 13-horse field, every other time, he's faced no more than seven rivals and fewer in his more recent ones. Ticks many boxes, hence the price.

8. Christmas Day

- won the Ballysax nicely in April, well ahead of James J Braddock and Pierre Bonnard, but then started favourite in the Dante, and was dismissed by Item to the tune of 4.5L. Relegated to stable fourth string on the jockey bookings. Not out of it but unlikely.

9. Item

- the only undefeated colt in the race, three from three so far, each time by a comfortable margin. Trainer Andrew Balding is flying at present, winning with four of his last seven runners at time of writing, and Juddmonte colts are bred for the Classics. He finished strongly at York to win the Dante in a tough, grinding style rather than acceleration. That was the top rated of all the trials, he's a great chance here.

10. James J Braddock

- named after the boxer who the movie Cinderella Man was made about, his form is strong. A late starter, he ran second on debut at Navan before bolting in at the Curragh to win his maiden in November. First time out this season, he was a little plain behind Christmas Day in the G3 Ballysax (although his rating was above his 2yo performances), he was caught flat-footed before running on late, and then improved to win the old Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown four weeks later, nailing Pierre Bonnard right on the line. He's learning on the go, so long as he gets around Epsom, that should be fine because it's a very long straight here, he'll have time to rev up. Trainer & jockey won the Oaks on Friday, connections got the rain they wanted this week, a great chance to do the rare double.

11. Maltese Cross

- four starts, three wins and a second, never with no more than a neck between first and second. Really had to fight to prevail over Bay Of Brilliance last time, clearing out by over six lengths back to third (Balzac). That's solid form but it's difficult to gauge how much or even if there is anything left in the tank. Ready for this, bred specifically for this race.

12. Pierre Bonnard

- the long-time favourite for this race over the winter, before disappointing in the Ballysax behind Christmas Day and James J Braddock. Showed more like his real form the next time at Leopardstown, being nosed out on the line by James J Braddock again. Won three in a row in good fashion to end his 2yo campaign although not many have kicked on from those races, only A Boy Named Susie who ran fourth in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) last weekend. Word is the stable are quietly confident, and they've brought back Christophe Soumillon who stepped in for an injured Ryan Moore to win the G3 and G1 races he collected in October. Has a decent shot but won't get my money.

13. Poker

- a 4.3 million guineas yearling who hasn't quite lived up to that valuation yet but has shown a little bit of talent. He was a relatively small 2yo and the owner regrets having run him so early, but is happy with his growth over the winter. Stepping up to 1m4f last time, it was only a four-horse race but he did leave the odds-on Godolphin favourite 8L behind him. It's just that the second fav who isn't contesting any Derbys finishing a couple of lengths ahead of him. Will stay the distance, probably beats a few home.

14. Rebel Rocker

- a longshot with only two starts to his name. After winning his maiden in November, he returned six weeks ago to run second in the Epsom Blue Riband Trial behind Saxon Street, who was fancied for the Derby before failing in the Cocked Hat at Goodwood a few weeks ago. Outside chance to run a place.

VERDICT

A tricky race with numerous chances. 

The market seems to be ranked accordingly based on what we've seen. The favourite deserves his position but there's a sizeable Aidan O'Brien tax on his odds. I'd rather throw a couple of darts at higher prices, however I suggest waiting until we have a clear guide on the weather. It could get nasty, but it could just as easily blow over.

Whilst Amo Racing haven't set the world on fire as an ownership group, they have gone well in this race without winning and Ancient Egypt looks equipped to chalk up their first English classic. At around 20/1, I'll be having a decent each-way crack if the rain isn't too severe. I don't see it being a problem as a son of Frankel, but he's only raced on good-to-firm to date.

The other two I like are Bay Of Brilliance and James J Braddock. I'll side with the latter for the each-way bet, a double from Joseph O'Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle is a genuine chance. Should the rain get so solid we're looking at a heavy track, I'd consider swapping in Bay Of Brilliance instead of Ancient Egypt.

Ancient Egypt, James J Braddock, Bay Of Brillance - back two of them each-way but watch the weather!