Lexus Melbourne Cup preview 2026

It's that time of year again for the Race That Stops The Nation. It probably doesn't any more, modern society is a bit different to the glory days. Still, the part of the nation that matters will be stopping for the race, and take a good hard look at yourself if you don't!

 

THE LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP

3200m, Group 1 Handicap
Of AU$10.2m
1500 AEST, 0400 GMT
for formguides and replays, try Racing.com and Racenet


1. Sons And Lovers - Perhaps the less-heralded of the JO'B quintet but do not underestimate! Ran second to future superstar Ombudsman as a 3yo, had a middling campaign last year but then stepped up to top class staying ranks this season as his trips increased. Took the rich Red Sea Turf in Riyadh in February, ran fourth ahead of Al Riffa in the Dubai Gold Cup over two miles, ran fifth in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot behind proper G1 performers in Giavelotto, Kalpana, Goliath and Jan Brueghel. Won a G2 in France after that, beating a good local benchmark in Double Major, then ran second to Arabian Crown in an Irish G3 (ahead of James J Braddock & Goodie Two Shoes). The horse that beat him that day, Arabian Crown, then won the G1 Woodbine International next time out. Now gets the services of Dylan Brown McMonagle who has won on him three times. Drawn three so likely to push up early to take a prominent position. Hasn't run much on wet tracks but by Study Of Man whose progeny thrive in it, so any rain won't bother him. Won't be stopping at the end.

2. Trustyourinstinct - The lead runner for JP McManus and this means you have to take all his form with a large grain of salt. Ran fourth in the Irish St Leger last time, behind Europe's best stayer Scandinavia. Before that, he knocked off the highly-rated Al Riffa in the G2 Curragh Cup with a strong late run, after perhaps his best effort of the season, a second in the G3 Dubai Duty Free International, ahead of Hotazhell, who subsequently went on to win G1s at his next two starts. Shrewdly trained and owned, and McManus is really keen to win this race now. Big chance, even before JMac got the ride. Barrier 18 shouldn't matter too much.

3. Knight's Choice - 2024 winner who showed signs of resurgence early this campaign but was awful in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn wide, dropped to last, tried making a mid-race move but didn't have the pace before keeping on in the straight. Allegedly didn't like the shifting surface but with rain around this week, will probably end up with similar conditions. All his Christmases came at once two years ago, winning at 90/1, lightning can't strike twice.

4. Middle Earth - Ran third in last year's edition but has form since of 89187898. On the plus side, all bar one of those fields have been with double-figure runners so he's at least been beating a few home. Ninth in the Caulfield Cup, beating half the field and then eighth in the Cox Plate when back in distance and up in class. Recorded nice finishing sectionals in both. They say he only gets warm over this sort of trip now, and last year his form was no better than this. Drawn the inside rail so won't have to do much work, the bigger task might be getting out. Seems a little short at around $13, but you know he'll be there at the end.

5. Vauban - Has tried in this race three times before and flopped each time. Ran ninth in the Geelong Cup, first-up for five months. Awkward preparation, awkward draw (22) and he's rather long in the tooth now. Just can't see it.

6. Enfjaar - Import who went close in the Caulfield Cup, beaten just a length after sitting near the pace from the inside gate. That's a solid form line as he finished ahead of Cosmic Crusader who won the Cox Plate last weekend and just behind Saint George who ran a flashing fifth in the same race. Can he run out the two miles? He was tiring at Caulfield but he did have to be hunted up early to take advantage of his draw. Paddock watchers did say he wasn't fully fit for that race which was odd considering that was his main target. I've got my doubts that he will run out two miles under these conditions but does get an ideal draw for a soft run.

7. Royal Supremacy - Was going well coming into the Caulfield Cup when he was my top pick, but after setting a slow early pace, the tempo was completely changed by horses who wouldn't settle charging around the outside, ruining his race. Complete forgive for that run, but what happens here if the pace is on again? Last year he worked across to the lead on the first turn but then Land Legend took off and led by 10-15L, disrupting his rhythm. Not convinced he stays but if he can settle close and stay patient, he could bob up at huge odds for a place.

8. Wine Dark Sea - Highly fancied for the Caulfield Cup but drew the car park and was given a torrid time up on the speed. Had strong form in Britain but that run was poor. The stop-start nature of the race rarely suits UK-trained horses. Drawn extremely wide again, he'll get a lot further to slide across and take up a forward position (about 1000m to the first turn), but it will be quite a shock for him to turn that form around. Will pass.

9. Asterix - Hated the heavy track in the Turnbull, running a long last and was way back in the Caulfield Cup, even if he was hampered by the fallers in the straight. NZ Derby winner four years ago, won a few G3 and Listed races since. Poorly weighted.

10. Goodie Two Shoes - Fantastic run last year, parked close and simply kept going when most others near the pace dropped off. Only beaten by the best local stayer we've seen since Makybe Diva. Carries 3.5kg more this year but arguably in better form after winning the G2 Lillie Langtry at Goodwood in August, a race she ran third in last year. Ignore her last run at Leopardstown, they wanted to give her another run before getting on the plane, in a tougher race, shorter trip and was never given any hope. This has been her target all year.

11. Juja Kibo - Impressive winner of the MV Cup (at Flemington) a week ago, running on from the tail of the field. Meets the third horse Mr Monaco on 2kg worse terms for 3/4 of a length. Was unplaced in the Sydney Cup earlier this year but was knocked around at a crucial stage of the race and lost his momentum. Has been in great form this prep, second in the G2 Kingston Town, won the G2 Metropolitan, both settling near the front, then came from the tail after drawing wide in the MV Cup. Versatile and solid chance.

12. Hopewell Rock - Made the field comfortably in the end after a couple of weeks of sweating on getting in. Since being gelded at the end of his (northern) 3yo season, he has turned the corner with some solid staying performances. He ran third behind future Ebor winner Daiquiri Bay first-up in May, ran sixth as favourite in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot, both over 2400m, then learnt to settle better before winning a decent handicap at Goodwood. He then lined up in the Ebor at York, Europe's premier staying handicap, and was nosed out by the aforementioned Daiquiri Bay, and finished just ahead of Opportunity, who had beaten him at Royal Ascot. I think the stable have got the hang of him now and George Boughey is a very astute young trainer. The money has come for him now, was backed at the Call of the Card by JP McManus to win $10 million. Solid chance.

13. Onesmoothoperator - Won the Moonee Valley Cup a year ago. Beat more horses home when running 16th in last year's edition than he has in his four runs since. Should not be in the race, but it's the first Cup runner for this trainer and understandably he won't give that up.

14. Soul Of Spain - Ran a solid second in the Sydney Cup in the autumn, ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when Schiller couldn't hold him and he went to the front about 1000m to light up the race. Not beaten far in the circumstances and will be better suited here. Provided there's a reasonable tempo, he should be able to settle and get a soft run. The AI form analysts on racing.com think he's the best longshot of the race.

15. Zahrann - Heavily touted coming for the Caulfield Cup until a shocker in the Turnbull on the heavy, and then drew inside in the CC and didn't have much room to make his move. Finished sixth overall, a much better performance but his run gave out before the line raising doubts about his stamina. Should be able to see clear air from this draw but likely to go back and probably needs a long, sustained run to win. Blinkers applied for the first time. Willing to risk.

16. So You Are - Bendigo Cup winner last week who scrapes into the field. Winner of four races on the trot, but a Listed and a trio of Group 3s, avoiding the better Sydney staying races before coming to Victoria. Went forward at Bendigo with on-pace runners favoured, but he beat a limited bunch at the last chance saloon to get into the Cup. All previous logic suggests Cup winners do not come from that race. However if you line up the form through the third horse Litzdeel, he meets Point of Law, Mr Monaco and Shockletz at least as well at the weights, and I'm giving all of them decent chances. Switched stables to Bjorn Baker in the winter and has improved lengths. Ran last Wednesday - can he back up? Drawn well, rock hard fit, goes forward, in the hands of an excellent rider of stayers, in the mix.

17. Future History - Ran 15th in this race three years ago, he's a lot longer in the tooth now. Form this campaign is close up behind Royal Supremacy (can't win), Knight's Choice (can't win) and Juja Kibo & Mr Monaco (decent chances). The MV Cup run involved being caught three wide on a slow pace, but there was very little left at the finish. Only plus is Jamie Melham takes the ride. This is beyond him.

18. James J Braddock - Irish raider who has had the snip since running in the English and Irish Derbys, hoping to settle better to run a strong 3200m. Ran third when prominent in the market at Epsom on a wet track, but then disappointed in the Irish edition. Named after a famous boxer during the Depression, also known as 'Cinderella Man'. Has been aimed at this race ever since Ozzie Kheir bought into the horse alongside original owner Kevin Blake. They've been careful not to run him too much once he'd earned a weight high enough to get him into the field - does that leave him with enough experience to handle this test? Drawn 24, not impossible but makes his task that little bit harder.

19. Kizlyar - Snuck into the field with some late withdrawals on Saturday. Was poor in the Moonee Valley Cup last weekend in a race connections didn't want to run him in, but didn't want to risk not qualifying. One caveat though - the pace was stop-start and he doesn't have a turn of foot. He is slow. Won the restricted 4000m handicap at Royal Ascot, ahead of Defiantly before that horse found extra gears, and then ran second in the Irish St Leger Trial, beaten 4.5L by a decent Coolmore stayer in Queenstown, but the rest of the field was poor. They wanted him fresh, he doesn't get that. Has drawn 20 so he either pushes forward and hopes to get in, or he pulls back to the tail and prays all the others stop. Can't have him.

20. Point Of Law - The baby of the field, having only five starts to date. Previous winners Cross Counter and Rekindling, both northern hemisphere 3yos, had seven and nine previous starts. The weight scale has changed a little since then, he'll carry the equivalent of 1.5kgs higher. The former royally-owned colt won a maiden and a Group 3 in Britain (third in a Royal Ascot G2 in between) before being purchased for clients of Ciaron Maher. He had to win the Geelong Cup to get into the field and did so in impressive style, pushing forward from a wide gate, challenging the favourite The Euphrates and running past him in the straight. Rated by Timeform as one of the top four Geelong Cup wins in past 40yrs - the other three all went on to win the Melbourne Cup - Dunaden, Americain and Media Puzzle. Regally bred, by Frankel out of a Deep Impact mare, but can get a little excited pre-race. He won't have seen this sort of crowd before, there's not much else to find fault with. Big chance, deserves to be favourite but might be getting a little short.

21. Strictly Business - Has only beaten home three horses this campaign in three starts. Finished dead last in the MV Cup last weekend. Ran second in the SA Derby back in March, and won the Oaks last spring, but there's been no sign of that form this time in. Drawn well and that's about it. Should not be in the race.

22. Mr Monaco - Qualified by winning the Bart Cummings a month ago on a heavy track, controlling the race from just off the lead and there was a gap back to third. He then tuned up by running well in the MV Cup last weekend when parked three-wide the trip, finishing a nice third. Meets the winner Juja Kibo 2kg better for that. Was a decent young stayer in the UK, has progressed out in Australia. Ignore his Sydney Cup flop, vets reported an abnormality after the race. A very handy apprentice takes the ride, each-way hope.

23. Zakouma - Qualified for the Cup back in May and has been campaigned to target the race, rather than any along the way. Was close up in the Naturalism and Herbert Power at Caulfield, while last time over a mile, treat it as nothing more than a track gallop. Stays the trip, drawn well, gets in light, hot jockey aboard.

24. Shockletz - Won the Archer here in September to win a golden ticket into the race, and had a nice tune-up over 2040m here a week ago, running second and now drops 7kg for the big race. Has won seven from 20 starts, is by a Melbourne Cup winner and won't care if it rains heavily. By qualifying early in her campaign, Ciaron Maher has been able to space her campaign out perfectly rather than sweat on getting into the race with a light weight. Solid chance whatever the conditions, best of the locally-bred runners. Her jockey Harry Coffey had a serious fall on Saturday, initially with a suspected collarbone but X-rays showed no break. Apparently there was minor surgery on Sunday and has been declared fit for Tuesday. Reports from the stable have been very positive for a while.

CONDITIONS

Track was a Good 4 on Saturday with some rain expected on Monday. Flemington is one of the best draining courses in the world, it would need watering anyway. Couldn't see it being any worse than a Soft 5 which would mean no excuses for any runner.

SPEED

Above average pace, but without the stamina of Defiantly. Expecting wide runners to slide over and lead into the first turn - Kizlyar, Royal Supremacy, and Wine Dark Sea, with the likes of So You Are, Mr Monaco, Point Of Law, Enfjaar and Goodie Two Shoes close behind. Trustyourinstinct and James J Braddock probably drop to the tail.

SUMMARY

There's plenty of discussion this year about weight, and how the stats are against higher weighted runners. But the handicapping system has changed this year - 11 horses carry 55kg or more, versus 2022 - eight including the winner Gold Trip, 2023 - five including the winner Without A Fight, 2024 - one, 2025 - six. No wonder not many high weights have won, they've been vastly outnumbered and the recent record isn't that bad.

HOPEWELL ROCK was beaten a lip in the Ebor and escaped a penalty here, he's classy enough to be carrying a kilo or two more. Will stay all day and has an excellent jockey aboard. Price is getting on the tight side though. SONS AND LOVERS is being overlooked in the betting, he has higher class staying form and won't be stopping. POINT OF LAW could be anything and I think he'll either go very close or flop badly. His advantage over the first pair is local fitness. MIDDLE EARTH will be running on late, his campaign has focused on this entirely and he killed my exotics last year so I can't let him do that again!

Hopewell Rock
Sons And Lovers
Point Of Law
Middle Earth
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So You Are
Mr Monaco
Shockletz
Trustyourinstinct
Soul Of Spain
Goodie Two Shoes
Juja Kibo
----
Enfjaar
Zahrann
Zakouma


Breaks above represent how I'll break up my trifectas (first group to win, add the next group for second and the latter group for third.)  20% will cost you $96.