cash in on the over-reaction of mug punters to press reports

If you ever want to witness how much punters over-react to media speculation, take a look at a Next Manager market on Betfair. The current Next Republic of Ireland Manager has had nine men matched at below 3.5, four or five of them at odds-on. Mug punters just jump on the bandwagon blindly and prices just keep on going down to ridiculous numbers. And then the Irish press have the gall to say it's all just a field day for bookmakers when they are the ones fuelling the fire!

Cash in on the over-reactions - lay the short prices, no need to get involved laying someone at 100. Trappatoni crashed from 400 down to 1.73 on Betfair within 24hrs, and now he's back out to about 10.

Think of the facts - Ireland have no need to appoint a manager any time soon. Apart fronm the friendly next week against Brazil (the squad has already been picked so no point hiring a new manager to take charge of a team he didn't select), they don't have a match scheduled until September. So there's no rush. The market has been open since October.

The secret to trading profitably on Betfair - BACK HIGH, LAY LOW. Watch what losing punters do (eg jump on media bandwagons) and do the opposite!

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track. There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------

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