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Showing posts from May, 2014

The times they are a-changin'

Far too long between my industry updates so buckle up, this will take a while to read.....


Stan James have announced they will making a series of redundancies in their trading department as they move further towards automated trading. As I tweeted yesterday, my only surprise to this news was that they hadn't fully automated their trading operations already. Every firm uses automation these days in varying degrees. Do you honestly think they manage 100+ live events manually? The prices will be generated by an algorithmic model (and/or external feed) and the trader will monitor the feeds and bet ticker to check everything is in order. These guys (SJ) are top of the pile when it comes to restricting clients/shutting 'unviable' accounts, it would suck to be a trader there. Controlled by beancounters, laying very little genuine action, and now Stan James, one of the original offshore rogues, will have to pay tax on all bets from the UK like everyone else.

Will they go the same…

Inside the Shadowy World of High Speed Tennis Betting

Following on from my article back in January about the ridiculous arrest of Daniel Dobson at the Australian Open, ESPN/FiveThirtyEight Sports has probed deeper into the world of tennis courtsiding to understand more on what it's all about. I've been quoted in it so I might as well share it around...

Inside the Shadowy World of High-Speed Tennis Betting

By CARL BIALIK

In January, Daniel Dobson was two months into a new job that allowed him the opportunity to travel overseas and watch live sports. It had a downside, though: It got him arrested in an incident that drew media coverage around the world.

Dobson’s job was to sit courtside at the Australian Open in Melbourne and use his cell phone to transmit the outcome of each point of the match he was watching. The faster he worked, the greater the edge his employers at Sporting Data Ltd. would have in the betting market.

Police charged Dobson, 22, with violating a law protecting integrity in sport.


Read more where it was origina…

French Open match previews - Thursday

The French Open at Roland Garros is well under way for another year, I've not had time to do much analysis so I've resorted to the expert, Dan from TennisRatings. Follow him on Twitter @tennisratings and visit his website to see more of his services.

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29th MAY 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

Juan Monaco's match with Andreas Seppi has the potential to be an epic match for trading...

Current ATP 5 set winners still in the tournament:-

(For more information please check out the Implications of winning a 5 set match article.

Radek Stepanek - 5 sets vs Arguello, 4 sets vs Youzhny
Thomaz Bellucci - 5 sets vs Becker
Axel Michon - 5 sets vs Klahn
Andreas Haider-Maurer - 5 sets vs Brands
Steve Johnson - 5 sets vs Lokoli
Martin Klizan - 3 sets vs Nishikori, 5 sets vs Haase
Marcel Granollers - 1 set vs Dodig, 5 sets vs Dolgopolov

Already eliminated after a 5 set win:-

Jarkko Nieminen
Facundo Bagnis
Mikhail Youzhny

There are 32 matches today at Roland Garros as the se…

Scoop 6 first leg preview

I regularly tell my writers that penning a preview is a great way to collect your thoughts and analyse a race more effectively. So about time I practised what I preach again... here's the first leg in the £15m Scoop6 tomorrow.

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Haydock 2.05

Barkston Ash

Looked to be labouring in the pack then kicked on to win clearly. Goes from C3 0-90 to C3 75-90, up 8lb but no issue lumping big weights. Flying of late, but rotten record here, one placing from seven starts.

Out Do

Two wins off 81, has been thereabouts in five runs off 91 without winning. Squeezed up when making his run last time at York, perhaps disadvantaged by low draw there. Gets the 'right' side this time. Third run in quick succession for new stable, must be a chance here.

Polski Max

Ignore if dry, start taking a closer look if the track comes up soft. Jockey 0/24 this season.

Discussiontofollow

Yet to win on turf, but at the same time, yet to miss a place in six starts on any surface. Appeared…

Doomben Ten Thousand preview

In a week tinged by sadness around the sudden death of Guy Walter, Australian feature racing continues this weekend at Doomben for Queensland's feature WFA sprint, the 10,000. Manny Galouzis @mannygalouzis returns to preview this great race.

The honour roll for this race includes greats such as Apache Cat, Takeover Target, Falvelon, Chief de Beers, Campaign King, Manikato, Maybe Mahal and way back to the legendary Bernborough in 1946!

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The Doomben 10,000

Just before we get stuck into things, I’d like to extend my condolences to the Walter family. Guy Walter was a terrific trainer, who in recent times had won multiple Group 1s with horses like Appearance and Streama (who won as recently as last Saturday in the Doomben Cup). By all reports he was an absolute gentleman and he will certainly be missed by all involved in the racing game.

The Doomben 10,000 holds a special place in my heart. As a broke 19 year old punter, I stood in the TAB of the Tower Hotel i…

Old lay the field article

Originally posted on betting.betfair many years ago, no longer displayed, so I thought I'd repost it for the benefit of those who regularly ask about it. All images from the old interface, the principles remain the same!

Horse Racing - now with video clip

One trade you may consider on horse racing markets is to 'lay the field at odds-on'. Take a look at how many horses get beaten these days at odds-on in-running - it means punters are over-reacting and losing, so why not be on the other side of that and profit from it?

Objective
To create a profitable book based upon laying a number of horses at a pre-determined price during the race.

How to do this
To have a profitable book your combined lay bets need to exceed 100%. Therefore if you lay 2 horses at 1.8 (55%) you would be a winner. Should you decide to lay @ 3.0 (33.33%) you will need to lay at least 3.1 horses at that price during the race.

The price you choose will vary depending on your research or testing (keep liab…

Is it the last hurrah for Betfair Australia?

Despite a promising start and a lucrative market, it appears that Betfair's time in Australia might be up. They've not made a profit in Australia since day one and racing authorities, led by Dr Evil in NSW, the self-proclaimed Emperor of all things equine north of the Murray, Peter V'Landys, have done everything they can to make Australian racing unviable for them.

The new set of race fields fees for Victorian racing, the best in the land, will inevitably be followed by other states when their next opportunity to revise their structure comes around.

Racing Victoria announces revised race field fees to be applied from 1 July, 2014

An excerpt: A scale of rates will also apply for all other betting types (non pari-mutuel bets), with a higher rate for premium race days. All other betting types will be charged the greater of, for:

Standard race meetings (440 meetings) – 1.5% of turnover or 15% of gross revenue
Meetings containing a Group or Listed race (45 meetings) – 2.0% of…

Eurovision preview

It's Eurovision time, when normally sane people go a tad crazy watching a plethora of cheesy performances backed up by political voting pacts and soemtimes witty banter from Graham Norton (he's not Terry Wogan by a long stretch....).

Eurovision tragic Andrew Hawkins @AndrewNJHawkins has done the form intensively and produced this gem of work.

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Eurovision

Ah, Eurovision. That annual wacky celebration of kitsch is upon us again.

As a straight Eurovision fan - yes, they do exist - I've spent weeks and months listening to the songs and trying to frame a book.

This year has been fascinating as the markets have fluctuated wildly. And anyone who believes they have found the winner cannot be entirely sure. I think we have a close vote on our hands.

I drew up a top 10 before the week started, which looked something like this:

1. Sweden
2. United Kingdom
3. Spain
4. Austria
5. Norway
6. The Netherlands
7. Hungary
8. Denmark
9. Armenia
10. Israel (alr…

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

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The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…

Kentucky Oaks preview

It's Run to the Roses week in the US at the classic but controversial Churchill Downs. Classic because of the time-honoured great races this weekend, controversial because of the recent takeout hike by arrogant racetrack owners who have defied all economic lessons of the past where increasing the price equates to less business. And punters aren't happy about it, boycotting the most famous racecourse in North America. Find out more at playersboycott.org

Ignoring the politics and the local tote, it's still a great weekend and Friday's meeting is headlined by the Kentucky Oaks. Regular US racing contributor Jon da Silva, @creamontop saddles up for the preview.

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Kentucky Oaks
9 Furlongs


Nine furlongs is a Route in US racing. That is pronounced as in 'rout' as in 'Man United fans have been discovering routs can happen more than once a year'. In the UK of course a Route is pronounced 'Root' and many Aussie men have been …