Australia and the UK aren't the only countries blessed with great racing at the moment, there's a top notch programme in Dubai and it only gets better as we close in on World Cup night. Jetsetting sports media guru Trent Masenhelder (@tmase04) runs through the card for us.
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Dubai Super Saturday
The Dubai World Cup Carnival is just three weeks away and action heats up at Meydan this week with the running of Super Saturday, featuring eight races, all preps for the richest race day in the world.
It’s a star-studded card featuring an array of local and international stars, and for Australian racing enthusiasts, a few former Peter Snowden-trained runners.
Race 1
Maktoum Challenge R3 (for purebred Arabians)
Group 1 - USD $55,000 - 2,200m on the Tapeta
A tough race to start proceedings. VERSACY PY (#5) was second behind AL MAMUN MONLAU (#2) in the Kahayla Classic on World Cup day last year but he can turn the tables here. The latter has the services of Frankie Dettori and will be tough to beat from gate two, though. RAZZIQ (#7) and SHAYEL ALDHABI (#8) should also be in the finish.
TIPS: 1. VERSAC PY (#5), 2. AL MAMUN MONLAU (#2), 3. SHAYEL ALDHABI (#8)
Race 2
Al Bastakiya - Listed - $250,000 - 1,900m on the Tapeta
A nice crop of three-year-old’s do battle here. EMIRATES FLYER (#8) was thrashed by Long John last time out, beaten 4.25L into second, but suspect the form will hold up as Long John is top-class. HE’S NO SAINT (#1) was ultra-impressive in winning on February 6 and Fergal Lynch is winning on just about everything he throws the leg over at present. ASMAR (#3) has been knocking on the door and also has form around Long John. Richard Hughes should give him every chance from gate three.
TIPS: 1. EMIRATES FLYER (#8), 2. HE’S NO SAINT (#1), 3. ASMAR (#3)
Race 3
Meydan Sprint - Group 3 - $175,000 - 1,000m on the Turf
A tough, competitive group of sprinters will set the turf alight in this mad scamper. Last season’s Carnival revelation, SHEA SHEA (#6), returns. He won this race last year, before a devastating performance in the Al Quoz Sprint, but has become costly since, failing to record another victory. A lot will depend on how fit he is. He’s the class runner but I’m prepared to risk him first-up. SOLE POWER (#15) never runs a bad race and beat SHEA SHEA at Royal Ascot last June. He was second behind Japanese sprint sensation Lord Kanaloa in December and Ryan Moore steers. A host of other chances including BEAT BABY (#1), CATCALL (#2), ALSAAEQAH (#12) and AHTOUG (#14)
TIPS: 1. SOLE POWER (#15), 2. BEAT BABY (#1), 3. SHEA SHEA (#6)
Race 4
Mahab Al Shimaal - Group 3 - $200,000 - 1,200m on the Tapeta
A sensational renewal of this Group 3 affair. SOFT FALLING RAIN (#14) is an absolute star, having won eight of 10, and while he’ll have to do some work from the wide gate, his class can get him over the line. He was three from three here last season and was most impressive. COMPLICATE (#2) and BELLO (#4), who both previously raced in Australia under Peter Snowden, turned in eye-catching performances last time out. They’re as honest as they come and should be in the mix. REYNALDOTHEWIZARD (#10), the defending Golden Shaheen champion, was a shade disappointing upon his return but looked in need of the run. Expect him to strip fitter and take holding out. UNITED COLOR (#12) is another who should improve from a wide gate, while seasoned sprinters KRYPTON FACTOR (#7), BALMONT MAST (#8) and RUSSIAN SOUL (#11) can never be ruled out.
TIPS: 1. SOFT FALLING RAIN (#14), 2. COMPLICATE (#2), 3. KRYPTON FACTOR (#7)
Race 5
Burj Nahaar - Group 3 - $200,000 - 1,600m on the Tapeta
VARIETY CLUB (#11) arrived from the Rainbow Nation with huge wraps. And the two-time South Africa Horse of the Year didn’t disappoint winning the Firebreak Stakes with a leg in the air. The margin was 2L, but could have easily been double. The worrying factor for his rivals here is that trainer Joey Ramsden admitted afterwards he wasn’t fully wound-up. He’s won 15 of 20, including nine on the bounce, and barring bad luck should get the job done again. A host of chances to run a drum, including; CAPITAL ATTRACTION (#5), MAINSAIL (#2), EMPIRE STORM (#8), HAATHEQ (#10) and BRENDAN BRACKAN (#16)
TIPS: 1. VARIETY CLUB (#11) - BEST, 2. BRENDAN BRACKAN (#16), 3. EMPIRE STORM (#8)
Race 6
Dubai City of Gold - Group 2 – $250,000 - 2,410m on the Turf
PENGLAI PAVILION (#10) returns after an outstanding run in the Prix de L'arc de Triomphe last October. The son of super sire Monsun stayed on gamely to finish fifth behind fabulous filly Treve in what many experts consider the strongest renewal of the great race at Longchamp. If he’s forward enough he can win. South Africa raider HEAVY METAL (#9) is very good and can be forgiven for two sub-par performances in Dubai this year. He should be at his peak now and the return to turf will doubtless suit. It’s a deep race, though, and any one of EMPOLI (#3), MUJAARIB (#6), SONGCRAFT (#8), #15 MEANDRE (#15) and BATTLE OF MARENGO (#16) could win without surprising.
TIPS: 1. PENGLAI PAVILION (#10), 2. HEAVY METAL (#9), 3. BATTLE OF MARENGO (#16)
Race 7
Maktoum Challenge - Group 1 - $400,000 - 2,000m on the Tapeta
Arguably the toughest race on the card. Plenty of chances here, but going with SANSHAAWES (#13) to make it a double for Mike de Kock. He takes on some tough old stayers, however, he’s won two on the spin and is starting to put it all together. SIDE GLANCE (#6) is a grand campaigner and was enormous in the Cox Plate, finishing sixth behind Shamus Award, who’s gone on to win the Australian Guineas and is a live chance in Saturday’s Australian Cup. The seven-year-old won the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes at his next start and was fourth behind Animal Kingdom in last year’s Dubai World Cup. Godolphin runners PRINCE BISHOP (#1), AFRICAN STORY (#8) and CAT O’MOUNTAIN (#9) all have strong claims, too.
TIPS: 1. SANSHAAWES (#13), 2. SIDE GLANCE (#6), 3. CAT O’MOUNTAIN (#9)
Race 8
Jebel Hatta - Group 1 – $300,000 - 1,800m on the Turf
What a race to finish with. VERCINGETORIX (#2) was brilliant upon return since June, 2013. He’s now a perfect five from five and could be anything. Christophe Soumillon can make it a winning treble for De Kock from gate two. VANCOUVERITE (#3) looks his toughest rival. The talented Godolphin colt has won four of six and has form around Penglai Pavilion and Kizuna. TRADE STORM (#8) was third behind the brilliant Wise Dan last September and is a winning hope, while ANAEROBIO (#10) and MARS (#14) also have claims. Former Aussie galloper LINTON (#5) is as tough as nails, but likely in need of the run.
TIPS: 1. VERCINGETORIX (#2), 2. VANCOUVERITE (#3), 3. TRADE STORM (#8)
Friday, 7 March 2014
Surround Stakes preview
Sydney feature racing continues this week at Warwick Farm and it's the fillies which have taken the eye of shrewd NSW racing analyst Andrew Capelin, @farlad.
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Surround Stakes
This week I have had a look at the Surround Stakes a 1400 metre Group 2 race for 3yo Fillies, a traditional ATC Oaks lead up run at Warwick Farm. If you like what you read and want more details about my markets for Sydney and NSW Provincial racing I can be found on Twitter (AC Markets @farlad) or contacted by email andrew.capelin at gmail.com.
13 Fillies line up and the burning question is whether GUELPH can reassert her spring dominance or whether she has come back to the field. Warwick Farm is presently rated a slow 7 and there is more rain on the radar. I’m going to assume a slow 7 by race time. With no rain it is possible we could reach a Dead surface. Either way you won’t want to be stuck near the fence.
1. GUELPH (13) K McEvoy – P Snowden
The dominant filly of the Spring who was flat in the Light Fingers at Randwick (the 1200m lead up) after racing wide with no cover. She is unbeaten second up and at the distance. I am expecting a better showing on Saturday but the first up run was just too poor for me to dismiss quickly. The race map will turn out much the same and she will probably sit wide with no cover (not such a problem at the Warwick Farm 1400) and find herself getting to the best part of the track. Her only run on Slow was the Golden Slipper (beaten 3.4 len). Whilst I can’t knock her for that she is a big striding girl who needs to balance up and there must be some question about her on a genuinely wet track. I have priced her double her current quote of $2.70.
2. SWEET IDEA (12) T Berry - G Waterhouse
Foolproof filly who sat outside the lead in the Light Fingers and kicked away. I see her being handy again and she looks the winner again. The 1400 is no problem and Tommy will sit outside or just off the pace. He should control and drift to the centre of the track to find the best ground. Her closing speed figures were good last time and she won’t have to do as much early as she did over 1200. I have marked her shorter than the $3.60 available.
3. THUMP (5) J Cassidy – K Lees
Very disappointing in the lead up. She just couldn’t muster pace as usual. Although she likes Warwick Farm, she will be on the inside and the wet track and 1400 are big queries. I expect she will start longer than the $21 available now
4. GYPSY DIAMOND (3) N Rawiller – J O’Shea
A slashing first up run from a filly headed for the Oaks which has me being cautious with her second up. Her finishing burst last time will have her starting shorter than she should and she will be well back on the fence. On the plus side she should handle the going. I have marked her around her current quote $16
5. REAL SURREAL (9) J McDonald – Team Hawkes
Sprinting filly with a win over SWEET IDEA. A very good effort in the lead up and I feel she can only improve. The stable has been responsible for lots of whingeing bookmakers lately with every horse in the stable reportedly going “3 lengths better” than last year. If she improves that amount she will win. No wet form but her breeding screams “Swimmer”. She is a single figures chance and worth a bet at $12
6. CHAMPAGNE CATH (2) J Ford – C Waller
Good filly untried on worse than Dead ground. Races in the lead and will find the paint up front. Unfortunately for her she will be stuck there and that won’t be ideal. She has a good record but $17 is under the odds.
7. ARABIAN GOLD (4) J Adams – D Vandyke
Finished second to Guelph at this distance in the spring. I really liked her first up run when she hit the line as well as anything. She is unbeaten on wet tracks and at 1400 should settle a bit closer than last time. She comes home for the first time, another plus for her. Whilst the stable has been out of form and the rider is competent but unfashionable, that should ensure she starts over her true odds. Current quote $17.
8.ZANBAGH (11) B Shinn – G Walter
Ran second in VRC Oaks in the spring coming out of restricted races. Is aiming to go one better in ATC Oaks. She only got serious late in the lead up ( recorded fastest last 200 of race) and will be out the back again. She will handle the wet and be running on late but I don’t want to back her just yet.
9. LUCIA VALENTINA (6) H Bowman – K Lees
NZ filly who lands here with a good wrap on her. No trial and she will race midfield or worse and be running on. Has top local rider but I like to risk these NZ horses when they first come here unless the case is irresistible and here it is not.
10. CHATEAU LAFAITE (8) G Schofield – C Waller
Sister to Royal Descent who has made her own name with an impressive list of performances and SPs in restricted races. Aimed at the Oaks but she has a lot of upside here. I want to see her first but she really knew where the line was last preparation.
11. MADE TO ORDER (10) J Parr – C Waller
Commands filly who was performing well in restricted races last year. I think she will be outclassed here
12. MARMELO (7) J Collett – C Waller
The fourth Waller filly in the race but she has done everything asked of her including winning when sent to Melbourne in the spring. Untried in the ground and way up in class here.
13. METAPHORICAL (1) B Avdulla – P Moody
Speedy filly on her first trip north. I think the Sydney fillies are much stronger.
SUMMARY: A very good race with plenty of angles to take. I will stick with SWEET IDEA who will get a good run again and be suited by the sit and sprint style of the Warwick Farm 1400. I feel REAL SURREAL and ARABIAN GOLD might be over their true odds.
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Surround Stakes
This week I have had a look at the Surround Stakes a 1400 metre Group 2 race for 3yo Fillies, a traditional ATC Oaks lead up run at Warwick Farm. If you like what you read and want more details about my markets for Sydney and NSW Provincial racing I can be found on Twitter (AC Markets @farlad) or contacted by email andrew.capelin at gmail.com.
13 Fillies line up and the burning question is whether GUELPH can reassert her spring dominance or whether she has come back to the field. Warwick Farm is presently rated a slow 7 and there is more rain on the radar. I’m going to assume a slow 7 by race time. With no rain it is possible we could reach a Dead surface. Either way you won’t want to be stuck near the fence.
1. GUELPH (13) K McEvoy – P Snowden
The dominant filly of the Spring who was flat in the Light Fingers at Randwick (the 1200m lead up) after racing wide with no cover. She is unbeaten second up and at the distance. I am expecting a better showing on Saturday but the first up run was just too poor for me to dismiss quickly. The race map will turn out much the same and she will probably sit wide with no cover (not such a problem at the Warwick Farm 1400) and find herself getting to the best part of the track. Her only run on Slow was the Golden Slipper (beaten 3.4 len). Whilst I can’t knock her for that she is a big striding girl who needs to balance up and there must be some question about her on a genuinely wet track. I have priced her double her current quote of $2.70.
2. SWEET IDEA (12) T Berry - G Waterhouse
Foolproof filly who sat outside the lead in the Light Fingers and kicked away. I see her being handy again and she looks the winner again. The 1400 is no problem and Tommy will sit outside or just off the pace. He should control and drift to the centre of the track to find the best ground. Her closing speed figures were good last time and she won’t have to do as much early as she did over 1200. I have marked her shorter than the $3.60 available.
3. THUMP (5) J Cassidy – K Lees
Very disappointing in the lead up. She just couldn’t muster pace as usual. Although she likes Warwick Farm, she will be on the inside and the wet track and 1400 are big queries. I expect she will start longer than the $21 available now
4. GYPSY DIAMOND (3) N Rawiller – J O’Shea
A slashing first up run from a filly headed for the Oaks which has me being cautious with her second up. Her finishing burst last time will have her starting shorter than she should and she will be well back on the fence. On the plus side she should handle the going. I have marked her around her current quote $16
5. REAL SURREAL (9) J McDonald – Team Hawkes
Sprinting filly with a win over SWEET IDEA. A very good effort in the lead up and I feel she can only improve. The stable has been responsible for lots of whingeing bookmakers lately with every horse in the stable reportedly going “3 lengths better” than last year. If she improves that amount she will win. No wet form but her breeding screams “Swimmer”. She is a single figures chance and worth a bet at $12
6. CHAMPAGNE CATH (2) J Ford – C Waller
Good filly untried on worse than Dead ground. Races in the lead and will find the paint up front. Unfortunately for her she will be stuck there and that won’t be ideal. She has a good record but $17 is under the odds.
7. ARABIAN GOLD (4) J Adams – D Vandyke
Finished second to Guelph at this distance in the spring. I really liked her first up run when she hit the line as well as anything. She is unbeaten on wet tracks and at 1400 should settle a bit closer than last time. She comes home for the first time, another plus for her. Whilst the stable has been out of form and the rider is competent but unfashionable, that should ensure she starts over her true odds. Current quote $17.
8.ZANBAGH (11) B Shinn – G Walter
Ran second in VRC Oaks in the spring coming out of restricted races. Is aiming to go one better in ATC Oaks. She only got serious late in the lead up ( recorded fastest last 200 of race) and will be out the back again. She will handle the wet and be running on late but I don’t want to back her just yet.
9. LUCIA VALENTINA (6) H Bowman – K Lees
NZ filly who lands here with a good wrap on her. No trial and she will race midfield or worse and be running on. Has top local rider but I like to risk these NZ horses when they first come here unless the case is irresistible and here it is not.
10. CHATEAU LAFAITE (8) G Schofield – C Waller
Sister to Royal Descent who has made her own name with an impressive list of performances and SPs in restricted races. Aimed at the Oaks but she has a lot of upside here. I want to see her first but she really knew where the line was last preparation.
11. MADE TO ORDER (10) J Parr – C Waller
Commands filly who was performing well in restricted races last year. I think she will be outclassed here
12. MARMELO (7) J Collett – C Waller
The fourth Waller filly in the race but she has done everything asked of her including winning when sent to Melbourne in the spring. Untried in the ground and way up in class here.
13. METAPHORICAL (1) B Avdulla – P Moody
Speedy filly on her first trip north. I think the Sydney fillies are much stronger.
SUMMARY: A very good race with plenty of angles to take. I will stick with SWEET IDEA who will get a good run again and be suited by the sit and sprint style of the Warwick Farm 1400. I feel REAL SURREAL and ARABIAN GOLD might be over their true odds.
Thursday, 6 March 2014
Australian Cup preview
The previews for Super Saturday (Australian style) continue with the Australian Cup, and more astute assessment by Manny Galouzis. @mannygalouzis.
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Australian Cup
$1m, WFA, 2000m
Flemington
4.00pm local time (0500 GMT)
Track expected to be in Good 3-4 range.
Now onto one of my favourite races of the Australian racing calendar, the Australian Cup. It has a winners' list just as good as the Newmarket. Melbourne Cup winners in Shocking, Makybe Diva and Saintly. WFA superstars such as Manighar and Pompeii Ruler. The race is probably most famous for one of the biggest boilovers of all time, when Dandy Andy at the luxurious odds of 125/1 bloused even money favourite Vo Rogue. Although we only have a small field of nine running in this year's edition, we aren't short on class with two Melbourne Cup winners and a Cox Plate winner. Here we go.
1. Fiorente
Back to HQ for last year's Cup winner. Looked to be struggling at the top of the straight last start, but he produced that all too familiar finishing sprint to get the prize in the last few bounds. Gai has said he was only about 80% fit that day and should take plenty of improvement from the run. Clearly the one to beat.
2. Green Moon
Hasn't won a race since taking out the 2012 edition of the Cup, he was quite good first up before his condition gave out in the last 100m. He will enjoy being back at Flemington and up to 2000m, but I am prepared to risk him here.
3. Mourayan
About seven seconds after they crossed the line in the Peter Young Stakes, I tweeted "Mourayan #wtf". To this very second, I still feel the same way. I have no idea where that run came from. Ducking up the inside to be beaten a lip at 150/1. If he can repeat that performance, then I'd have to say he is a big chance in this race. I just can't see it happening though. Obviously not the worst 20/1 shot I've laid eyes upon, but I'm willing to let him go around without my cash. Famous last words…
4. Foreteller
I thought he was just fair last start. He does seem to do his best work at 10 furlongs, but I would have wanted him to show a bit more at Caulfield for him to get any of my hard earned this time around. That being said, Chris Waller has made a fool of me many a time…
5. Star Rolling
Very good last start, leading until the shadows of the post. He does face another rise in class here and won't get the same soft lead that he did last time. Pass.
6. Voleuse De Coeurs
Well, she certainly is classy enough, being a 6L winner of the Irish St. Leger, though she hasn't raced below 2100m since her two year old days. I can't have her here.
7. Let's Make ADeal
Very ordinary in the Peter Young, she is 66/1 and deservedly so. No thanks.
8. Shamus Award
Two wins in his career amounting to just under $2.5million in prize money. He is starting to sound a little bit like Phelan Ready (but I hope for the sake of Danny O'Brien and connections he doesn't go another 40 starts without a win!) He certainly made a fool out of me in the Guineas, skipping along in front and putting a gap on the field in the straight. His Cox Plate win was clearly no fluke. He should employ similar tactics here and I think he'll be in front for a very long way. The danger to Fiorente and at $4.50, I think he is about the right price.
9. Thunder Fantasy
Settled well back in the Guineas and finished off quite strongly to run 3rd beaten just over a length. Looks like he is screaming out for 2000m. I don't think there is a great deal between Shamus Award and Thunder Fantasy, so at double the odds I'd be more inclined to back him.
This race really comes down to pace. Shamus Award will definitely roll along in front, but it will be interesting to see how much pressure is put on him by the likes of Star Rolling and possibly the Williams pair. If they go quite hard in front, Fiorente could be unbeatable. I'm not discounting Thunder Fantasy though. Three year olds don't have a great record in this race, but Super Cool and Fiveandahalfstar showed last year that it can be done.
In a 100% market, I've got Fiorente $2.60 favourite, with a whisker between Shamus Award and Thunder Fantasy at $4.40 and $5.00 respectively.
Selections:
1. Fiorente
2. Shamus Award
3. Thunder Fantasy
4. Green Moon
Recommended Bet:
Something small on Thunder Fantasy each-way, with more the place.
Good luck punters, it's a cracking days racing and as always, there's no such thing as the last race.
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Australian Cup
$1m, WFA, 2000m
Flemington
4.00pm local time (0500 GMT)
Track expected to be in Good 3-4 range.
Now onto one of my favourite races of the Australian racing calendar, the Australian Cup. It has a winners' list just as good as the Newmarket. Melbourne Cup winners in Shocking, Makybe Diva and Saintly. WFA superstars such as Manighar and Pompeii Ruler. The race is probably most famous for one of the biggest boilovers of all time, when Dandy Andy at the luxurious odds of 125/1 bloused even money favourite Vo Rogue. Although we only have a small field of nine running in this year's edition, we aren't short on class with two Melbourne Cup winners and a Cox Plate winner. Here we go.
1. Fiorente
Back to HQ for last year's Cup winner. Looked to be struggling at the top of the straight last start, but he produced that all too familiar finishing sprint to get the prize in the last few bounds. Gai has said he was only about 80% fit that day and should take plenty of improvement from the run. Clearly the one to beat.
2. Green Moon
Hasn't won a race since taking out the 2012 edition of the Cup, he was quite good first up before his condition gave out in the last 100m. He will enjoy being back at Flemington and up to 2000m, but I am prepared to risk him here.
3. Mourayan
About seven seconds after they crossed the line in the Peter Young Stakes, I tweeted "Mourayan #wtf". To this very second, I still feel the same way. I have no idea where that run came from. Ducking up the inside to be beaten a lip at 150/1. If he can repeat that performance, then I'd have to say he is a big chance in this race. I just can't see it happening though. Obviously not the worst 20/1 shot I've laid eyes upon, but I'm willing to let him go around without my cash. Famous last words…
4. Foreteller
I thought he was just fair last start. He does seem to do his best work at 10 furlongs, but I would have wanted him to show a bit more at Caulfield for him to get any of my hard earned this time around. That being said, Chris Waller has made a fool of me many a time…
5. Star Rolling
Very good last start, leading until the shadows of the post. He does face another rise in class here and won't get the same soft lead that he did last time. Pass.
6. Voleuse De Coeurs
Well, she certainly is classy enough, being a 6L winner of the Irish St. Leger, though she hasn't raced below 2100m since her two year old days. I can't have her here.
7. Let's Make ADeal
Very ordinary in the Peter Young, she is 66/1 and deservedly so. No thanks.
8. Shamus Award
Two wins in his career amounting to just under $2.5million in prize money. He is starting to sound a little bit like Phelan Ready (but I hope for the sake of Danny O'Brien and connections he doesn't go another 40 starts without a win!) He certainly made a fool out of me in the Guineas, skipping along in front and putting a gap on the field in the straight. His Cox Plate win was clearly no fluke. He should employ similar tactics here and I think he'll be in front for a very long way. The danger to Fiorente and at $4.50, I think he is about the right price.
9. Thunder Fantasy
Settled well back in the Guineas and finished off quite strongly to run 3rd beaten just over a length. Looks like he is screaming out for 2000m. I don't think there is a great deal between Shamus Award and Thunder Fantasy, so at double the odds I'd be more inclined to back him.
This race really comes down to pace. Shamus Award will definitely roll along in front, but it will be interesting to see how much pressure is put on him by the likes of Star Rolling and possibly the Williams pair. If they go quite hard in front, Fiorente could be unbeatable. I'm not discounting Thunder Fantasy though. Three year olds don't have a great record in this race, but Super Cool and Fiveandahalfstar showed last year that it can be done.
In a 100% market, I've got Fiorente $2.60 favourite, with a whisker between Shamus Award and Thunder Fantasy at $4.40 and $5.00 respectively.
Selections:
1. Fiorente
2. Shamus Award
3. Thunder Fantasy
4. Green Moon
Recommended Bet:
Something small on Thunder Fantasy each-way, with more the place.
Good luck punters, it's a cracking days racing and as always, there's no such thing as the last race.
Newmarket Handicap preview
It's Super Saturday at Flemington this weekend, the pinnacle of the Melbourne autumn. The first feature covered on the blog this weekend is Australia's premier sprint handicap, the $1m Newmarket Handicap.
Saddling up again this weekend for the big races is the astute Manny Galouzis, @mannygalouzis.
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Newmarket Handicap
Flemington
$1,000,000, Group 1.
1520 local time, 0420 GMT.
1200m, straight course, track expected to be Good 3-4 range.
Welcome back punters. Unfortunately we couldn't get the job done with Eurozone last week, but that doesn't stop us rolling the dice again. It's Super Saturday at Flemington and this wannabe journalist is excited. Let's kick things off with the time-honoured Newmarket Handicap.
Run down the iconic "straight-six" at Flemington, the Newmarket's honour roll is about as good as it gets. Hay List, Black Caviar, Scenic Blast, Weekend Hussler, Miss Andretti and Takeover Target; just to name a few. Winners of this race have usually gone on to do big things at Royal Ascot in recent years. In more recent times, weights haven't mattered and favourites usually get the chockies, but with winners such as the ones mentioned above, it's easy to see why. With no clear stand out this year, it looks like a dead-set raffle, but that usually just means there is value to be found.
1. Moment of Change
He did the job for the battlers in the Futurity, but it's becoming very clear to me that 1400m around Caulfield is his go. That being said, he is no slouch down the straight. Last year he ran 2nd in both the Lightning and the Newmarket. The step back to 1200m and top weight does worry me though. As good a horse as he is, I can't have him here.
2. Lankan Rupee
The epitome of a progressive horse. He has won five from his last six races, starting off at a BM78 at the Valley and culminating with an ultra-impressive win in the Oakleigh Plate. He is absolutely flying at the moment and has won down the straight before. I think he's a bit short at the 7/2 on offer but he is in this up to his ears.
3. Samaready
Slightly disappointing first up in the Lightning, though she did finish off quite nicely after being put under pressure early. Have to concede she is a big chance here, but think she is short enough. Under the odds.
4. Shamexpress
Big run first up in the Lightning, finishing off quite strongly. Should appreciate the step up to 1200m and seems to relish running down the straight. In a race with plenty of chances, I've got last year's winner on top.
5. Fontelina
Always seems to run well down the straight, could be a touch outclassed here though. Rough place chance.
6. Spirit of Boom
Brilliant in the Oakleigh Plate, he only saw daylight at the 250m mark and when he did, he exploded. Although he has never won down the straight, he has placed multiple times. I think the $17 on offer is way over the odds. He's my second pick and a great each-way chance.
7. General Truce
Started off his prep quite nicely, winning first up at Flemington and then beaten a lip at Caulfield, however he was quite disappointing in the Oakleigh Plate. Might not handle the class rise here, not for me.
8. Pago Rock
He is flying this time in, only beaten 2.3L in the Lightning and beaten a lip by Adamantium last start when coming home with a wet sail. Appreciates the 1200m and David Hayes is just starting to find some form. I'm not sure he can win, but $9 is a big price for a place. Not hopeless.
9. Unpretentious
Decent enough in the Lightning, but honestly don't think he is up to this lot. Pass.
10. Knoydart
Settled a lot further back than I thought he would in the Oakleigh Plate, which was probably his undoing. Flashed home down the outside to grab 3rd, this horse is clearly in a rich vein of form. I've got him equal third pick. He's currently showing $11 and if he gets out any further I could have something small on him. Chance.
11. Albrecht
Returned well first up but this is a decent class rise and it's been a long time between drinks for this horse. Doubt it.
12. Flamberge
Arguably the run of the race in the Oakleigh Plate, when wide without cover throughout. Was entitled to drop out and finish amongst the tail-enders after the horrible run he endured, but he kept fighting to finish fifth beaten only 3L. Has won down the straight before, he could be a place chance at big odds.
13. Mister Milton
He's won two races from 29 starts, I don't think he's going to bring up his 3rd win here.
14. Bernabeu
Not quite sure what to make of his run in the Lightning. He was well backed on the day but he stopped as if he'd been shot by a sniper in the stands. Drops 5.5kg down to the minimum here but I suppose you have to take him on trust. Prefer others.
15. Va Pensiero
Should highball out in front with the postage stamp on his back, but it would be a big surprise if he won here.
I always find it hard to do the speed maps for these races down the straight. I would imagine that the two bottom weights take up the running in front, with Moment of Change not too far away with Lankan Rupee. I don't think they will burn along too hard, so you wouldn't want to be TOO far back in running.
After it's all said and done, this race is very tricky. My ratings are $5.50 the field with five horses in single figures. I'll be betting around the favourites here, taking some exotics and hoping to get a result. I think Spirit of Boom is a big chance at a big price and with as much as $19 currently available, he is a great each-way investment.
Selections:
1. Shamexpress
2. Spirit of Boom
3. Lankan Rupee and Knoydart
Recommended Bet:
Spirit of Boom EACH-WAY and play Quinellas/Trifectas around 2,4,6,8,10,12
Saddling up again this weekend for the big races is the astute Manny Galouzis, @mannygalouzis.
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Newmarket Handicap
Flemington
$1,000,000, Group 1.
1520 local time, 0420 GMT.
1200m, straight course, track expected to be Good 3-4 range.
Welcome back punters. Unfortunately we couldn't get the job done with Eurozone last week, but that doesn't stop us rolling the dice again. It's Super Saturday at Flemington and this wannabe journalist is excited. Let's kick things off with the time-honoured Newmarket Handicap.
Run down the iconic "straight-six" at Flemington, the Newmarket's honour roll is about as good as it gets. Hay List, Black Caviar, Scenic Blast, Weekend Hussler, Miss Andretti and Takeover Target; just to name a few. Winners of this race have usually gone on to do big things at Royal Ascot in recent years. In more recent times, weights haven't mattered and favourites usually get the chockies, but with winners such as the ones mentioned above, it's easy to see why. With no clear stand out this year, it looks like a dead-set raffle, but that usually just means there is value to be found.
1. Moment of Change
He did the job for the battlers in the Futurity, but it's becoming very clear to me that 1400m around Caulfield is his go. That being said, he is no slouch down the straight. Last year he ran 2nd in both the Lightning and the Newmarket. The step back to 1200m and top weight does worry me though. As good a horse as he is, I can't have him here.
2. Lankan Rupee
The epitome of a progressive horse. He has won five from his last six races, starting off at a BM78 at the Valley and culminating with an ultra-impressive win in the Oakleigh Plate. He is absolutely flying at the moment and has won down the straight before. I think he's a bit short at the 7/2 on offer but he is in this up to his ears.
3. Samaready
Slightly disappointing first up in the Lightning, though she did finish off quite nicely after being put under pressure early. Have to concede she is a big chance here, but think she is short enough. Under the odds.
4. Shamexpress
Big run first up in the Lightning, finishing off quite strongly. Should appreciate the step up to 1200m and seems to relish running down the straight. In a race with plenty of chances, I've got last year's winner on top.
5. Fontelina
Always seems to run well down the straight, could be a touch outclassed here though. Rough place chance.
6. Spirit of Boom
Brilliant in the Oakleigh Plate, he only saw daylight at the 250m mark and when he did, he exploded. Although he has never won down the straight, he has placed multiple times. I think the $17 on offer is way over the odds. He's my second pick and a great each-way chance.
7. General Truce
Started off his prep quite nicely, winning first up at Flemington and then beaten a lip at Caulfield, however he was quite disappointing in the Oakleigh Plate. Might not handle the class rise here, not for me.
8. Pago Rock
He is flying this time in, only beaten 2.3L in the Lightning and beaten a lip by Adamantium last start when coming home with a wet sail. Appreciates the 1200m and David Hayes is just starting to find some form. I'm not sure he can win, but $9 is a big price for a place. Not hopeless.
9. Unpretentious
Decent enough in the Lightning, but honestly don't think he is up to this lot. Pass.
10. Knoydart
Settled a lot further back than I thought he would in the Oakleigh Plate, which was probably his undoing. Flashed home down the outside to grab 3rd, this horse is clearly in a rich vein of form. I've got him equal third pick. He's currently showing $11 and if he gets out any further I could have something small on him. Chance.
11. Albrecht
Returned well first up but this is a decent class rise and it's been a long time between drinks for this horse. Doubt it.
12. Flamberge
Arguably the run of the race in the Oakleigh Plate, when wide without cover throughout. Was entitled to drop out and finish amongst the tail-enders after the horrible run he endured, but he kept fighting to finish fifth beaten only 3L. Has won down the straight before, he could be a place chance at big odds.
13. Mister Milton
He's won two races from 29 starts, I don't think he's going to bring up his 3rd win here.
14. Bernabeu
Not quite sure what to make of his run in the Lightning. He was well backed on the day but he stopped as if he'd been shot by a sniper in the stands. Drops 5.5kg down to the minimum here but I suppose you have to take him on trust. Prefer others.
15. Va Pensiero
Should highball out in front with the postage stamp on his back, but it would be a big surprise if he won here.
I always find it hard to do the speed maps for these races down the straight. I would imagine that the two bottom weights take up the running in front, with Moment of Change not too far away with Lankan Rupee. I don't think they will burn along too hard, so you wouldn't want to be TOO far back in running.
After it's all said and done, this race is very tricky. My ratings are $5.50 the field with five horses in single figures. I'll be betting around the favourites here, taking some exotics and hoping to get a result. I think Spirit of Boom is a big chance at a big price and with as much as $19 currently available, he is a great each-way investment.
Selections:
1. Shamexpress
2. Spirit of Boom
3. Lankan Rupee and Knoydart
Recommended Bet:
Spirit of Boom EACH-WAY and play Quinellas/Trifectas around 2,4,6,8,10,12
Tuesday, 4 March 2014
Indian Wells ATP & WTA Tournament Previews
The tennis circuit has supposedly slowed down a little since the Aussie Open but it kicks back into gear this week with the first of the American hardcourt swings, comprising the Masters Series (ATP)/ Premier Mandatory (WTA) events at Indian Wells and Miami. Big dollars and points at stake, but is everyone in prime physical condition? And what does history tell us about these events?
I've brought in fellow tennis guru Dan Weston with his stats-based analysis of the tournament markets. For more of Dan's work, take a good look at what he has to offer on his site, and follow him on Twitter @tennisratings.
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Indian Wells
With a few spare days before the WTA event starts on Wednesday (the ATP tournament begins on Thursday) I thought I'd write an advance preview of both tournaments prior to the draws being made.
The Indian Wells event is the first of two Masters/Premier Mandatory events in March with Miami following in a fortnight.
The fields in both events are comprised of 96 players, with the tournaments being played over an unusual 10/11 day format. The effect of this is that there are an avalanche of early matches, and then few in the second week.
Last year there were 62.1% holds in the WTA event which is 1.1% below the WTA hard court average, whilst the ATP had 75.9% holds - 2.4% below the ATP hard court mean.
On that basis it can be said that the courts will play a little on the slow side and there will be slightly more service breaks than the average hard court event. Therefore laying the server and laying the player a break up should have more application than the average tournament, and positive expectation opportunities will exist in this area in the next fortnight.
For those who are unaware, Masters and Premier Mandatory events offer large ranking points and financial incentives to players and it's pretty rare for a player not to give their all when those benefits are there, although those incentives do mean that injured players tend to turn up for their first round match with no real chance of winning, so that needs to be guarded against.
Due to the incentives mentioned above, favourites tend to thrive in Masters/Premier Mandatory events and looking at the 2013 historical data was interesting in this respect.
There was a clear discrepancy between the first round and subsequent rounds for favourite success, with the vast majority of underdog wins coming in the opening few days of the events.
The WTA had worse results blindly backing favourites, with a 68.8% win percentage incurring a -4.29% ROI loss in 2013. However the ATP actually managed a slight profit, with its 71.0% win percentage generating 1.51% ROI simply by backing the favoured player.
What is interesting to see is that since 2006, there have been no repeat winners of the event in the WTA - mainly due to the long-term absence of Serena Williams from the event. With Victoria Azarenka (2012 winner) and Maria Sharapova (2013 winner) having doubts about whether they are going into the event in their best form, the WTA event is particularly open this year.
Despite there being various winners of the event, only Daniela Hantuchova (14th seed) and Kim Clijsters (unseeded but clearly a top player) were winners from outside the top six seeds in the last 10 years so it's that area that needs to be considered for potential winners.
Only Caroline Wozniacki (8) and Marion Bartoli (15) were outside the top five seeds when runner up in the last 10 years, giving further weight to looking at the top six seeds for outright positions.
In the men's event, Roger Federer has won four of the last 10 tournaments but only once since 2006. He rolled back the years in Dubai last week with some superb tennis although statistics do not support his ability to reproduce this week in, week out.
Rafael Nadal has won three of the last seven here with Novak Djokovic taking two titles. Only Ivan Ljubicic (20th seed) has won in the last 10 years when outside the top five seeds, and realistically the top three seeds have the best chances with in addition only Nadal (5th seed only due to injury) winning from outside the top three seeds.
This makes life potentially difficult for Andy Murray, who hasn't recaptured his best form since back surgery and has a historically bad record here, with a solitary runner-up position being his best finish.
There have been a real mixed bag of runners up with John Isner, Mardy Fish and James Blake making the final in recent years, so whilst the top players in the market are most likely to win, outright backers of a long shot may have opportunities to trade out in the later stages of the men's event.
I've brought in fellow tennis guru Dan Weston with his stats-based analysis of the tournament markets. For more of Dan's work, take a good look at what he has to offer on his site, and follow him on Twitter @tennisratings.
--------------------
Indian Wells
With a few spare days before the WTA event starts on Wednesday (the ATP tournament begins on Thursday) I thought I'd write an advance preview of both tournaments prior to the draws being made.
The Indian Wells event is the first of two Masters/Premier Mandatory events in March with Miami following in a fortnight.
The fields in both events are comprised of 96 players, with the tournaments being played over an unusual 10/11 day format. The effect of this is that there are an avalanche of early matches, and then few in the second week.
Last year there were 62.1% holds in the WTA event which is 1.1% below the WTA hard court average, whilst the ATP had 75.9% holds - 2.4% below the ATP hard court mean.
On that basis it can be said that the courts will play a little on the slow side and there will be slightly more service breaks than the average hard court event. Therefore laying the server and laying the player a break up should have more application than the average tournament, and positive expectation opportunities will exist in this area in the next fortnight.
For those who are unaware, Masters and Premier Mandatory events offer large ranking points and financial incentives to players and it's pretty rare for a player not to give their all when those benefits are there, although those incentives do mean that injured players tend to turn up for their first round match with no real chance of winning, so that needs to be guarded against.
Due to the incentives mentioned above, favourites tend to thrive in Masters/Premier Mandatory events and looking at the 2013 historical data was interesting in this respect.
There was a clear discrepancy between the first round and subsequent rounds for favourite success, with the vast majority of underdog wins coming in the opening few days of the events.
The WTA had worse results blindly backing favourites, with a 68.8% win percentage incurring a -4.29% ROI loss in 2013. However the ATP actually managed a slight profit, with its 71.0% win percentage generating 1.51% ROI simply by backing the favoured player.
What is interesting to see is that since 2006, there have been no repeat winners of the event in the WTA - mainly due to the long-term absence of Serena Williams from the event. With Victoria Azarenka (2012 winner) and Maria Sharapova (2013 winner) having doubts about whether they are going into the event in their best form, the WTA event is particularly open this year.
Despite there being various winners of the event, only Daniela Hantuchova (14th seed) and Kim Clijsters (unseeded but clearly a top player) were winners from outside the top six seeds in the last 10 years so it's that area that needs to be considered for potential winners.
Only Caroline Wozniacki (8) and Marion Bartoli (15) were outside the top five seeds when runner up in the last 10 years, giving further weight to looking at the top six seeds for outright positions.
In the men's event, Roger Federer has won four of the last 10 tournaments but only once since 2006. He rolled back the years in Dubai last week with some superb tennis although statistics do not support his ability to reproduce this week in, week out.
Rafael Nadal has won three of the last seven here with Novak Djokovic taking two titles. Only Ivan Ljubicic (20th seed) has won in the last 10 years when outside the top five seeds, and realistically the top three seeds have the best chances with in addition only Nadal (5th seed only due to injury) winning from outside the top three seeds.
This makes life potentially difficult for Andy Murray, who hasn't recaptured his best form since back surgery and has a historically bad record here, with a solitary runner-up position being his best finish.
There have been a real mixed bag of runners up with John Isner, Mardy Fish and James Blake making the final in recent years, so whilst the top players in the market are most likely to win, outright backers of a long shot may have opportunities to trade out in the later stages of the men's event.
Friday, 28 February 2014
InterDominion Super Sunday preview
The highlight of southern hemisphere harness racing is the Inter Dominion Championship. Historically it has been a three-week series of heats and final, now after a set of regional heats, the grand finale is a final with a stunning support card. The shrewdest offshore harness punter, Ben Krahe, casts an eye over the whole day's programme.
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Preview of Super Sunday at Menangle Paceway 2 March 2014 by Ben Krahe - @benkrahe
A great day's racing awaits us for what is dubbed Super Sunday, and rightly so to. Seven Group 1s will be held and three Group 2s – surely enough to wet any racing enthusiast’s appetite. The headline act – the Interdominion is still Australasia's biggest race and the winners are only the elite – four-time winner BLACKS A FAKE, three-time winners IM THEMIGHTYQUINN and OUR SIR VANCELOT, dual champions GAMMALITE, HONDO GRATTAN and CAPTAIN SANDY, and other champions such as WESTBURN GRANT, VILLAGE KID, SHAKAMAKER and the list goes on. Accompanied by the Chariots of Fire, the NSW Derby and Oaks, The Glenferrie Farm Challenge for the square-gaiters, The Ladyship Mile for the mares, and the Bohemia Crystal FFA, which is a consolation for the big race. Below is a preview of the 10 race card. If you are heading out to Menangle on Sunday, it’s a great day and a wonderful track, and I’ll be watching from the cushy confines of my villa overlooking the clear blue seas of Thailand.
Race 1 – Young Drivers Championship
A great way to start off the day with my best bet for the day MAGICAL TELF. A noted sit sprinter with a devastating burst, Sam Ottley will be have to be very patient and not go for home too early on this horse, but even with her inexperience I expect MT to be storming down the outside and early on in the day, you will be able to double your bank balance and go to the beer tent very happy with the 1st race. For exotic players, TEO ENTEO is flying since it came to Menangle racking up 2 wins and 2 places from 4 recent starts. CONDAGEN which is drawn the pole, will also be flying home and is another noted sit sprinter. Others to consider are ON THE RAZZLE and POACHER.
Suggested Bet – MAGICAL TELF to win (Best of the day)
Race 2 – Lady Drivers Invitational
Another good thing to keep the momentum going is FRANCO NORIEGA. Danielle Hill from SA will spear this gelding straight to the lead and if it can run its usual 1.53 mark it will be extremely hard to beat. Those in the pack running for 2nd and 3rd will include the well drawn MEDAL OF HONOUR, WINDINHERHAIR, the bookies friend WESTERN ROCKSTAR and LETTUCEFIB.
Suggested Bet – FRANCO NORIEGA to win (2nd best of the day)
Race 3 – NSW OAKS
A great clash between former Kiwi trained NIKE FRANCO (now in the hands of Dean Braun) and Kiwi raider MY WILLOW (trained by Mark Purdon). Also in the mix are former champion juvenile MINDARIE PRIDDY, up and coming very good horse QUICK DRAFT, and NSW very nice horse SPICKY STRIDE. I think this is actually a terrible draw for race favourite NF. MW crossed it easily last time and the proceeded to hand up. If this scenario happens again the MP will be first to take the lead off MW which could lead NF 3 pegs. While all this goes on, QD may also be heading forward into the breeze. A great race, where I expect MW will get a split at some stage and may prove to solid.
Suggested Bet – My WILLOW to win
Race 4 – LADYSHIP MILE
Champion Kiwi ADORE ME steps across the Tasman here in what should be a procession for it. Those running for placings include former Miracle Mile winner BABY BLING (although not in quite as scintillating form), STEAM WASHED (flying in Melb and can run on), ELUSIVE CHICK (going for a hattrick of wins at the track), VANSUMIC and TACT HAYLEYS DELIGHT (both well drawn). As AM will be about the 4s on mark the suggested bet will be a F4.
Suggested Bet – 11/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7,9,10
Race 5 – NSW DERBY
Expect YAYAS HOT SPOT with Lauren Panella on board to come out humming from near the outside barrier and then to put the handbrake on and look to take a trail. First there might be BLING IT ON, who took YYHS into the race last time. ALL BLACK STRIDE had a soft lead last time but wont get such a good run this time , and the other logical danger is Kiwi ISAIAH who looked much better last week around the big Menangle track. MAJOR CROCKER ran a huge race last week , I don’t expect it to be holding out YYHS though , and will be nicely positioned 3 pegs. IAM MR BRIGHTSIDE is the big surprise horse of this bunch and is currently airborne. I expect though that BIO – who has consistently been the best of his age this year to hold out a fast finshing IS and YYHS.
Suggested Bet – BLING IT ON to win
Race 6 – CHARIOTS OF FIRE
GINGER BLISS looks to get the early lead here. BORDER CONTROL should come to the death seat and be able to control the race from there. ELIOS went good 1st up from the Shaky Isles last week and is a definite place chance. MAJESTIC MACH hasn’t lived up to the early spruiks for mine and is a bit overrated as its not being gifted the lead anymore it’s the bigger races. The run of the heats arguably though came from GUARANTEED who stormed down the outside to win its heat. CHILLI PALMER actually beat GUAR last time but will need a miracle and plenty of speed on to win from the carpark. NOWITZKI won some big races in the west last time in but was only ok here 1st up against a much weaker lineup. FRANCO NELSON is an obvious danger from what will be a cushy barrier draw but I’m just a bit concerned about him. All in all a fabulous race in what no doubt will be a great formline leading into next years Grand Circuit races.
Suggested Bet - BORDER CONTROL and GUARANTEED to win
Race 7 – Interdominion Final
What a race. The only obvious omission is 3 time champ Quinny but for those that are presently racing we have the best that’s available.
1- IM VICTORIUS ($4.60) – Best of the west at the moment and although barrier 1 may look a good draw.. it will be 3 pegs at best for mine. This isn’t a bad thing though in these marathon races and if given an opportunity it will be storming home at the finish. 7/2 is filthy odds however. Should be double those odds at best.
2- LIVINGONTHEINTEREST ($61) – Ran 2nd in its heat after leading around the tight GP circuit. Wont be leading here or winning either. Unders - should be 500/1
3- SEEL N PRINT ($41) – If you told me a month ago this guy would win a heat then a lead up a week out I would’ve asked you what you have been smoking. However facts don’t lie and both weeks there’s been high speed on its races and this sit sprinter has won both last starts fair and square. The 3000m will suit but still only a rough place chance.
4- KEAYANG CULLEN ($18) – Good win after very soft run in track record time in the heat. Wont be behind the leader here and near impossible to see it winning. Think it will start a lot longer than the $18 on offer atm.
5- FOREVER GOLD ($151) – Won by far the weakest heat in QLD beating a bunch of walkers. The $151 is missing a zero.
6- MACH BEAUTY ($31) – I owned an ill-fated horse once by the name of The Hayne Train. Last January we decided to take it to Tamworth for a lowly rated final called the Golden Guitar. Guess who won it? Future ID heat winner and finalist Mach Beauty. FML. What’s the chances ? Anyway a year on and this guy has Scintillating gate speed and will cross to the markers first. Then he should be handing up to whichever of the favoured runners comes to the chair first. A good place chance but not convinced he can run a strong 3000m
7- WARTIME SWEETHEART ($151) – If this guy wins I’ll walk from Hua Hin (where I currently reside) to Bangkok – yes its 250km….
8- SMOLDA ($5) – Could be the horse to take the lead of MB. This guy is flying and a MASSIVE chance to win this race.. He is a freak, and if he wins I’m sure Australia will claim him as his own. Mark Purdon has this guy spot on at his 3rd run from a spell. His win first up had to be seen to be believed then ran an easy 2nd in what was a 400m race up the lane at Addington in absolutely unbelievable sectionals. I think he can win.
9- CARIBBEAN BLASTER ($11) – is there a more consistent Grand Circuit horse at the moment? Won a Chariots of Fire here as an outsider but has taken all before him since. Won the SA Cup, 3rd in a Ballarat Cup, 2nd in a Hunter Cup and 4th in an ID heat in his last 4 starts. If this guy gets the right run into the race he is absolutely capable of winning this. Will be probably be about 5/2 a place is a great ew bet in the race.
10- THE GOLD ACE ($15) – Not the worst $15 chance in a Group 1 I’ve ever seen. If Smolda isn’t the one to wrestle the lead of Mach Beauty this guy might be. Has great gate speed and from the outside of the front I can see him heading forward into a nice spot. A model of consistency lately which includes a 6th in the Victoria Cup, 1st in the Shepparton Cup, 6th in the Ballarat Cup, 3rd in the Hunter Cup and 3rd in the ID Heat , I can definitely see this guy in the first 4 or so.
11- RESTREPO ($12) – Previously a great sit-sprinter , he opted to try and lead all the way in the heat only to be run down by Keayang Cullen who had the much better run in track record time. Is obviously flying , and although I wasn’t sure this horse was Grand Circuit material a year ago, he has proven me wrong. The draw isn’t ideal and may be 4 pegs , but if the heavens open up he can storm home into a place. Will get better than $12 on the day if you fancy him
12- BEAUTIDE ($3.80) – Tassie and Miracle Mile champ BEAUTIDE deserves favourtism but its not all cut and dried. I thought it was a tad disappointing last week, and is also suspect at the championship distance of 3000m. Decisions will have to be made with it on whether to go forward early or whether to come with a withering burst – the way it won the Miracle Mile. I tipped him in the MM but today I think this may be beyond him and am happy to lay him at under 3/1
13- FOR A REASON ($7) – Comeback horse Frank the Tank loves the circuit and has won its only start over this distance range. Expect champion reinsman Luke McCarthy to position this guy up in the back half of the field and get a tag into the race. If they “go like the clappers” in the lead , then there isn’t a runner that can match him down the lane. He will come storming home and has explosive speed when left for one run. Won the Victoria Cup at huge odds, expect him to be in the finish. Definitely include in the multiples
14- TERROR TO LOVE ($11) – Was ready to tip the Kiwi Champ until the horror draw. Not sure where he gets to now.. Does he go early and get a forward position? I think its his only chance. Menangle record on paper doesn’t read well but has won 6 from 11 over the 3000m. Surely that’s important? Menangle form suspect? Well it has run 2nd in a Miracle Mile 4th in an Interdom final and 2nd in a Cordina Sprint, so its definitely not a mug around this circuit as some may suggest. I think this guy can run a huge race even from the visitors draw and leave this guy out of your multiples at your own peril
15- FRANCO NELSON – SCRATCHED
16- PUB BLITZ ($151) – 1st emergency that probably wont get a start. Better suited to the later FFA. Can’t win even with 50m head start
17- ARDGHAL ($151) – 2nd emergency. Kiwi Import that got beat in a c2-c4 at Maitland 4 starts ago. In an ID final now? Please…Tab… come on I know your system allows more than 150/1
SUGGESTED BET – SMOLDA to win
TRIFECTA SELECTION – 8-14-9-13
SUGGESTED F4 – 8,9,12,13,14/8,9,12,13,14/1,8,9,10,11,12,13,14/1,8,9,10,11,12,13,14
Race 8 – Bohemia Crystal FFA
The consolation for the ID brings together a capable group. JIVIN CULLEN is current favourite and probably deserves it after a good run in its heat. At the shortish quote though happy to bet around it. IM CORZIN TERROR finally got the win it deserved last time in the Terang Cup and will be in the firing line from the get-go. MAH SISH has been disappointing of late but did well last start when 5th in the Brian Hancock Cup in 1.50.2.
Suggested Bet – IM CORZIN TERROR to win
Race 9 – Glenferrie Farm Challenge
The trotting event for the day brings together the best from Australia and NZ. MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS is airborne at the moment stinging together 6 wins in a row. The obvious leader in the race, I expect it to be winning this race. MASTER LAVROS probably wont appreciate the barrier 1 draw. He is arguably NZ’s best trotter but will need luck from there. VULCAN isn’t quite going as good as when it won the Great Southern Star last year, but hinted it was back to something like its best last start. I SEE ICY EARL is flying and with speed on and the right run can figure in the placings. STENT is another extremely smart Kiwi who is in form. If FLYING ISA gets a start (2nd em) it will definitely be in the mix too. KEYSTONE DEL is 10/16 at the track and 5/6 at the distance including a 1.54 mile rate so obviously is no mug but today is the big league.
Suggested Bet – MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS at around the 6/4 mark looks good.
Race 10 – Allied Express Carnival Stakes
I’m sure the pockets (and the belly) is full by now, so it wont be the get-out stakes but the fill-up stakes for us today. Arguably the toughest race of the day so if you’ve had enough get out after backing the last trot winner. If you must have a bet then maybe today is the day for PACHACUTI. Has been a little disappointing recently but there is speed galore here. SHIPWRECK, GOD SEND, SATELLITE ACE and BETTOR BET BLACK will be all searching for the lead. With this speed battle going on, PACHA, could be left with the gun run from the barrier and be too good for them. As I said though, if you are already way in front (as I suspect) then be happy and enjoy what has no doubt been a fantastic day's racing.
Suggested Bet – Something small on PACHACUTI each way
Congratulations also must go to HRNSW on their marketing for this day and to again gain access to Free-to-air TV coverage for the final. The more people that see this spectacle the better and hopefully will get a new audience.
My tips (and rants) can be found on twitter - @benkrahe.
BEST OF LUCK FROM SUNNY THAILAND
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Preview of Super Sunday at Menangle Paceway 2 March 2014 by Ben Krahe - @benkrahe
A great day's racing awaits us for what is dubbed Super Sunday, and rightly so to. Seven Group 1s will be held and three Group 2s – surely enough to wet any racing enthusiast’s appetite. The headline act – the Interdominion is still Australasia's biggest race and the winners are only the elite – four-time winner BLACKS A FAKE, three-time winners IM THEMIGHTYQUINN and OUR SIR VANCELOT, dual champions GAMMALITE, HONDO GRATTAN and CAPTAIN SANDY, and other champions such as WESTBURN GRANT, VILLAGE KID, SHAKAMAKER and the list goes on. Accompanied by the Chariots of Fire, the NSW Derby and Oaks, The Glenferrie Farm Challenge for the square-gaiters, The Ladyship Mile for the mares, and the Bohemia Crystal FFA, which is a consolation for the big race. Below is a preview of the 10 race card. If you are heading out to Menangle on Sunday, it’s a great day and a wonderful track, and I’ll be watching from the cushy confines of my villa overlooking the clear blue seas of Thailand.
Race 1 – Young Drivers Championship
A great way to start off the day with my best bet for the day MAGICAL TELF. A noted sit sprinter with a devastating burst, Sam Ottley will be have to be very patient and not go for home too early on this horse, but even with her inexperience I expect MT to be storming down the outside and early on in the day, you will be able to double your bank balance and go to the beer tent very happy with the 1st race. For exotic players, TEO ENTEO is flying since it came to Menangle racking up 2 wins and 2 places from 4 recent starts. CONDAGEN which is drawn the pole, will also be flying home and is another noted sit sprinter. Others to consider are ON THE RAZZLE and POACHER.
Suggested Bet – MAGICAL TELF to win (Best of the day)
Race 2 – Lady Drivers Invitational
Another good thing to keep the momentum going is FRANCO NORIEGA. Danielle Hill from SA will spear this gelding straight to the lead and if it can run its usual 1.53 mark it will be extremely hard to beat. Those in the pack running for 2nd and 3rd will include the well drawn MEDAL OF HONOUR, WINDINHERHAIR, the bookies friend WESTERN ROCKSTAR and LETTUCEFIB.
Suggested Bet – FRANCO NORIEGA to win (2nd best of the day)
Race 3 – NSW OAKS
A great clash between former Kiwi trained NIKE FRANCO (now in the hands of Dean Braun) and Kiwi raider MY WILLOW (trained by Mark Purdon). Also in the mix are former champion juvenile MINDARIE PRIDDY, up and coming very good horse QUICK DRAFT, and NSW very nice horse SPICKY STRIDE. I think this is actually a terrible draw for race favourite NF. MW crossed it easily last time and the proceeded to hand up. If this scenario happens again the MP will be first to take the lead off MW which could lead NF 3 pegs. While all this goes on, QD may also be heading forward into the breeze. A great race, where I expect MW will get a split at some stage and may prove to solid.
Suggested Bet – My WILLOW to win
Race 4 – LADYSHIP MILE
Champion Kiwi ADORE ME steps across the Tasman here in what should be a procession for it. Those running for placings include former Miracle Mile winner BABY BLING (although not in quite as scintillating form), STEAM WASHED (flying in Melb and can run on), ELUSIVE CHICK (going for a hattrick of wins at the track), VANSUMIC and TACT HAYLEYS DELIGHT (both well drawn). As AM will be about the 4s on mark the suggested bet will be a F4.
Suggested Bet – 11/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7,9,10
Race 5 – NSW DERBY
Expect YAYAS HOT SPOT with Lauren Panella on board to come out humming from near the outside barrier and then to put the handbrake on and look to take a trail. First there might be BLING IT ON, who took YYHS into the race last time. ALL BLACK STRIDE had a soft lead last time but wont get such a good run this time , and the other logical danger is Kiwi ISAIAH who looked much better last week around the big Menangle track. MAJOR CROCKER ran a huge race last week , I don’t expect it to be holding out YYHS though , and will be nicely positioned 3 pegs. IAM MR BRIGHTSIDE is the big surprise horse of this bunch and is currently airborne. I expect though that BIO – who has consistently been the best of his age this year to hold out a fast finshing IS and YYHS.
Suggested Bet – BLING IT ON to win
Race 6 – CHARIOTS OF FIRE
GINGER BLISS looks to get the early lead here. BORDER CONTROL should come to the death seat and be able to control the race from there. ELIOS went good 1st up from the Shaky Isles last week and is a definite place chance. MAJESTIC MACH hasn’t lived up to the early spruiks for mine and is a bit overrated as its not being gifted the lead anymore it’s the bigger races. The run of the heats arguably though came from GUARANTEED who stormed down the outside to win its heat. CHILLI PALMER actually beat GUAR last time but will need a miracle and plenty of speed on to win from the carpark. NOWITZKI won some big races in the west last time in but was only ok here 1st up against a much weaker lineup. FRANCO NELSON is an obvious danger from what will be a cushy barrier draw but I’m just a bit concerned about him. All in all a fabulous race in what no doubt will be a great formline leading into next years Grand Circuit races.
Suggested Bet - BORDER CONTROL and GUARANTEED to win
Race 7 – Interdominion Final
What a race. The only obvious omission is 3 time champ Quinny but for those that are presently racing we have the best that’s available.
1- IM VICTORIUS ($4.60) – Best of the west at the moment and although barrier 1 may look a good draw.. it will be 3 pegs at best for mine. This isn’t a bad thing though in these marathon races and if given an opportunity it will be storming home at the finish. 7/2 is filthy odds however. Should be double those odds at best.
2- LIVINGONTHEINTEREST ($61) – Ran 2nd in its heat after leading around the tight GP circuit. Wont be leading here or winning either. Unders - should be 500/1
3- SEEL N PRINT ($41) – If you told me a month ago this guy would win a heat then a lead up a week out I would’ve asked you what you have been smoking. However facts don’t lie and both weeks there’s been high speed on its races and this sit sprinter has won both last starts fair and square. The 3000m will suit but still only a rough place chance.
4- KEAYANG CULLEN ($18) – Good win after very soft run in track record time in the heat. Wont be behind the leader here and near impossible to see it winning. Think it will start a lot longer than the $18 on offer atm.
5- FOREVER GOLD ($151) – Won by far the weakest heat in QLD beating a bunch of walkers. The $151 is missing a zero.
6- MACH BEAUTY ($31) – I owned an ill-fated horse once by the name of The Hayne Train. Last January we decided to take it to Tamworth for a lowly rated final called the Golden Guitar. Guess who won it? Future ID heat winner and finalist Mach Beauty. FML. What’s the chances ? Anyway a year on and this guy has Scintillating gate speed and will cross to the markers first. Then he should be handing up to whichever of the favoured runners comes to the chair first. A good place chance but not convinced he can run a strong 3000m
7- WARTIME SWEETHEART ($151) – If this guy wins I’ll walk from Hua Hin (where I currently reside) to Bangkok – yes its 250km….
8- SMOLDA ($5) – Could be the horse to take the lead of MB. This guy is flying and a MASSIVE chance to win this race.. He is a freak, and if he wins I’m sure Australia will claim him as his own. Mark Purdon has this guy spot on at his 3rd run from a spell. His win first up had to be seen to be believed then ran an easy 2nd in what was a 400m race up the lane at Addington in absolutely unbelievable sectionals. I think he can win.
9- CARIBBEAN BLASTER ($11) – is there a more consistent Grand Circuit horse at the moment? Won a Chariots of Fire here as an outsider but has taken all before him since. Won the SA Cup, 3rd in a Ballarat Cup, 2nd in a Hunter Cup and 4th in an ID heat in his last 4 starts. If this guy gets the right run into the race he is absolutely capable of winning this. Will be probably be about 5/2 a place is a great ew bet in the race.
10- THE GOLD ACE ($15) – Not the worst $15 chance in a Group 1 I’ve ever seen. If Smolda isn’t the one to wrestle the lead of Mach Beauty this guy might be. Has great gate speed and from the outside of the front I can see him heading forward into a nice spot. A model of consistency lately which includes a 6th in the Victoria Cup, 1st in the Shepparton Cup, 6th in the Ballarat Cup, 3rd in the Hunter Cup and 3rd in the ID Heat , I can definitely see this guy in the first 4 or so.
11- RESTREPO ($12) – Previously a great sit-sprinter , he opted to try and lead all the way in the heat only to be run down by Keayang Cullen who had the much better run in track record time. Is obviously flying , and although I wasn’t sure this horse was Grand Circuit material a year ago, he has proven me wrong. The draw isn’t ideal and may be 4 pegs , but if the heavens open up he can storm home into a place. Will get better than $12 on the day if you fancy him
12- BEAUTIDE ($3.80) – Tassie and Miracle Mile champ BEAUTIDE deserves favourtism but its not all cut and dried. I thought it was a tad disappointing last week, and is also suspect at the championship distance of 3000m. Decisions will have to be made with it on whether to go forward early or whether to come with a withering burst – the way it won the Miracle Mile. I tipped him in the MM but today I think this may be beyond him and am happy to lay him at under 3/1
13- FOR A REASON ($7) – Comeback horse Frank the Tank loves the circuit and has won its only start over this distance range. Expect champion reinsman Luke McCarthy to position this guy up in the back half of the field and get a tag into the race. If they “go like the clappers” in the lead , then there isn’t a runner that can match him down the lane. He will come storming home and has explosive speed when left for one run. Won the Victoria Cup at huge odds, expect him to be in the finish. Definitely include in the multiples
14- TERROR TO LOVE ($11) – Was ready to tip the Kiwi Champ until the horror draw. Not sure where he gets to now.. Does he go early and get a forward position? I think its his only chance. Menangle record on paper doesn’t read well but has won 6 from 11 over the 3000m. Surely that’s important? Menangle form suspect? Well it has run 2nd in a Miracle Mile 4th in an Interdom final and 2nd in a Cordina Sprint, so its definitely not a mug around this circuit as some may suggest. I think this guy can run a huge race even from the visitors draw and leave this guy out of your multiples at your own peril
15- FRANCO NELSON – SCRATCHED
16- PUB BLITZ ($151) – 1st emergency that probably wont get a start. Better suited to the later FFA. Can’t win even with 50m head start
17- ARDGHAL ($151) – 2nd emergency. Kiwi Import that got beat in a c2-c4 at Maitland 4 starts ago. In an ID final now? Please…Tab… come on I know your system allows more than 150/1
SUGGESTED BET – SMOLDA to win
TRIFECTA SELECTION – 8-14-9-13
SUGGESTED F4 – 8,9,12,13,14/8,9,12,13,14/1,8,9,10,11,12,13,14/1,8,9,10,11,12,13,14
Race 8 – Bohemia Crystal FFA
The consolation for the ID brings together a capable group. JIVIN CULLEN is current favourite and probably deserves it after a good run in its heat. At the shortish quote though happy to bet around it. IM CORZIN TERROR finally got the win it deserved last time in the Terang Cup and will be in the firing line from the get-go. MAH SISH has been disappointing of late but did well last start when 5th in the Brian Hancock Cup in 1.50.2.
Suggested Bet – IM CORZIN TERROR to win
Race 9 – Glenferrie Farm Challenge
The trotting event for the day brings together the best from Australia and NZ. MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS is airborne at the moment stinging together 6 wins in a row. The obvious leader in the race, I expect it to be winning this race. MASTER LAVROS probably wont appreciate the barrier 1 draw. He is arguably NZ’s best trotter but will need luck from there. VULCAN isn’t quite going as good as when it won the Great Southern Star last year, but hinted it was back to something like its best last start. I SEE ICY EARL is flying and with speed on and the right run can figure in the placings. STENT is another extremely smart Kiwi who is in form. If FLYING ISA gets a start (2nd em) it will definitely be in the mix too. KEYSTONE DEL is 10/16 at the track and 5/6 at the distance including a 1.54 mile rate so obviously is no mug but today is the big league.
Suggested Bet – MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS at around the 6/4 mark looks good.
Race 10 – Allied Express Carnival Stakes
I’m sure the pockets (and the belly) is full by now, so it wont be the get-out stakes but the fill-up stakes for us today. Arguably the toughest race of the day so if you’ve had enough get out after backing the last trot winner. If you must have a bet then maybe today is the day for PACHACUTI. Has been a little disappointing recently but there is speed galore here. SHIPWRECK, GOD SEND, SATELLITE ACE and BETTOR BET BLACK will be all searching for the lead. With this speed battle going on, PACHA, could be left with the gun run from the barrier and be too good for them. As I said though, if you are already way in front (as I suspect) then be happy and enjoy what has no doubt been a fantastic day's racing.
Suggested Bet – Something small on PACHACUTI each way
Congratulations also must go to HRNSW on their marketing for this day and to again gain access to Free-to-air TV coverage for the final. The more people that see this spectacle the better and hopefully will get a new audience.
My tips (and rants) can be found on twitter - @benkrahe.
BEST OF LUCK FROM SUNNY THAILAND
Rosehill R8 preview
On most feature race days, you'll have one or two lesser quality races programmed to fill the card. The owners mightn't win as much, but there's no reason punters can't take home as much they could on the highlight of the day.
Making her debut on the blog is Colleen Goth, @colleengoth, with her look at the last race on the Rosehill card, always an important one if you're chasing, or still in the Quaddie, no matter what the standard (RM75). She's afraid to avoid the favourites, and if you think she is completely barmy going by her tip... the last blog debutant who tipped a horse at triple-figure odds was @calumswanlaw - and he landed it!
Welcome Colleen!
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Rosehill Gardens Race Handicap 2000m
1720 EST (0620 GMT)
Good Evening Punters
When Scott suggested that I “have a go” at giving you my thoughts on a race at Rosehill tomorrow I just had to choose the “have a go” last race, that final fling on the card that lets you go home a winner – or at least go home!”
You see, I have had some luck before on the last race on a wet Autumnal day at Rosehill. Curiously around this time last year I was on track welcoming the turn of the season with rains from heaven– as the weather pundits predict that we will do so again tomorrow. Then I was watching the track deteriorate along with the winnings in my purse. With nothing much to lose I decided to throw my last on the last in the form of a suitably dour Kiwi stayer who I figured had been going around in more wretchedly muddy fields at home and as often happens with a visitor had been sent out at dismissingly high odds. And he looked tough in the ring!
As I had hoped, he galloped relentlessly into a place and I jumped puddles all the way home as a winner. Strangely enough there is a horse running in the last race tomorrow who bears some similarities to my previous placegetter at odds. He also comes from far flung muddier fields - and he has been given the same sort of price. I am suggesting that he, too, might be worth a last final fling – but more of that later.
I am going to take you through the horses lining up for this race and give you my thoughts to ponder. Why should you listen to them you might ask? Who is this woman who is having a go at tipping like a pundit?
I guess you will be able to make an assessment after the race – remembering that if I am right I am a pop up genius and if I am wrong the track bias at Rosehill is to blame! But suffice to say here, I am an avid follower of racing and thoroughbred breeding who wins often enough to be plausible and may hold some different insights into what makes what horse good on the day. So, with nothing further to lose but my plausibility, here are my thoughts on this race:
1. Black Jag. The top weight is trained by Chris Waller with the steely jock Nash Rawiller on top. This horse is tough and seasoned and it won its last start on 19 February on a slow track at Warwick Farm. His dam is by Thunder Gulch who seems to transmit strength and this 5 year old gelding has won up to 2200m. But he will carry 59.5 kgs and in his last race he came from behind to pass a small field. Much harder to do that tomorrow on this track and in a bigger field. He will need all the ‘excitable’ energy that his well-named sire seems to transmit to his stock to push out to the finishing line.
2. Forever Crazy. Another Waller runner looking to be part of a typical Waller quinella although her name does not inspire me with confidence! Her jockey does though, as Hugh Bowman is a reliable winner and this 4 year old mare has won or placed in her first five races since resuming this year. You would be crazy not to respect that form and the reliable breeding cross of Encosta De Lago over a Danehill mare.
3. Tamariz. The Favourite, as Gai Waterhouse runners often are, this 4 year old Tiger Hill gelding brings a solid recent race record and ability to lead and win to this race. His sire is very well regarded in Europe for his stayers that improve with racing and jockey Tommy Berry is riding in superb style.
4. Ultimate Gaze. A 7 year old gelding by “tough as nails” sire Intergaze out of a dour New Zealand mare, this fellow will slog it out to the line and should not be underestimated. Nor should his young trainer Michael Costa who teams up Blake Shinn who is prepared to work for every win.
5. Diamond Jim. This 6 year old gelding is a favourite of mine who looked like winning last Saturday at Randwick without my money on him for once! He only managed fifth but it was a good run and he owes me! I started following him because I followed his dam Tarcoola Diamond and the match with sire Encosta looked great on paper. Nathan Berry has beaten twin Tommy in the marriage stakes and he appears even more determined now to catch up with him in race wins on the track!
6. Dophi’s Boy. This 7 year old gelding has pulled surprise wins on us punters before and he could do so again! If it does turn out to be good weather for ducks tomorrow then this son of a Dolphin Street should swim well enough. His sire Half Hennessy produces tough progeny though we don’t see many of them going around now.
7. Dormello. I have to say that I love this horse on looks and parentage. He is out of one of my favourite race mares in Cinque Cento who was constantly under rated and delivering winnings to prove it. Her own sire Nothin’ Leica Dane is remembered for his dourness but he could also transmit that turn of foot essential for getting to the line in staying contests. His sire More Than Ready has put a little pizzazz into the genetic mix. This 4 year old gelding keeps improving every run with his last two wins in a row at the provincials. The pedigree should work – after all, he is named after the famous Italian stud farm where Tesio, the ‘wizard of Dormello’, pioneered modern breeding principles and superb race horses such as Ribot.
8. Empress Elect. This 4 year old mare takes on the older males but carries only 55 kg. Her sire Holy Roman Emperor is producing winners and her mother is by the consistent broodmare sire Hurricane Sky. Her win last Friday night at Canterbury was remarkable not for the smallness of the field but for her determination in beating what was there. She could surprise again.
9. Rhyno Chaser (Scratched)
10. Retort Courteous. This 5 year old gelding looks outclassed with only its provincial wins on the board but it has a few important things in its favour: a consistent jockey, only 54kgs in weight to lump and the Zabeel factor. Never to be underestimated, the Zabeel blood comes to the fore with care and patience and these in turn are factors which trainer Steve Englegbrecht has in his favour.
11. Albana. I saw this horse win at Goulburn on 14 February after missing the start and I thought it showed tremendous resilience to win. With the apprentice claim it comes down in the weights and it is better than its current 30-1 odds suggest. Magic Albert horses are winning a lot and this one could sneak in at nice odds.
12. Lucky Liaison. This 5 year old gelding is getting better with racing but I can’t find enough reasons to put him into my selections – except for the latter statement which may well in the way of such things come back to haunt me. I don’t know enough about him or his bloodlines to say more except that I hope he lives up to the promise of his name.
13. Zutero. Now at last we get to my ‘have a go’ horse. Before you dismiss this Nowra trained gelding too quickly you have to cognisance of a few interesting factors. Firstly, this horse came to the South Coast by way of Germany where he won well – admittedly on a good track but then Europeans tend to have heavier tracks than we recognise on paper. Secondly, this 5 year old gelding is steadily improving under the astute care of trainer Robert Price who doesn’t bring horses up from the beach for a look at the city lights. I have learnt over the punting years to always take a very hard look at long priced, seemingly outclassed horses that Robert Price brings to town. And at odds of around 200-1 when I last looked, I can’t think of a better omen bet for me for my first have a go at a blog.
My Selections:
13. Zutero (each way)
7. Dormello
3. Tamariz
11. Albana
Making her debut on the blog is Colleen Goth, @colleengoth, with her look at the last race on the Rosehill card, always an important one if you're chasing, or still in the Quaddie, no matter what the standard (RM75). She's afraid to avoid the favourites, and if you think she is completely barmy going by her tip... the last blog debutant who tipped a horse at triple-figure odds was @calumswanlaw - and he landed it!
Welcome Colleen!
------------------------
Rosehill Gardens Race Handicap 2000m
1720 EST (0620 GMT)
Good Evening Punters
When Scott suggested that I “have a go” at giving you my thoughts on a race at Rosehill tomorrow I just had to choose the “have a go” last race, that final fling on the card that lets you go home a winner – or at least go home!”
You see, I have had some luck before on the last race on a wet Autumnal day at Rosehill. Curiously around this time last year I was on track welcoming the turn of the season with rains from heaven– as the weather pundits predict that we will do so again tomorrow. Then I was watching the track deteriorate along with the winnings in my purse. With nothing much to lose I decided to throw my last on the last in the form of a suitably dour Kiwi stayer who I figured had been going around in more wretchedly muddy fields at home and as often happens with a visitor had been sent out at dismissingly high odds. And he looked tough in the ring!
As I had hoped, he galloped relentlessly into a place and I jumped puddles all the way home as a winner. Strangely enough there is a horse running in the last race tomorrow who bears some similarities to my previous placegetter at odds. He also comes from far flung muddier fields - and he has been given the same sort of price. I am suggesting that he, too, might be worth a last final fling – but more of that later.
I am going to take you through the horses lining up for this race and give you my thoughts to ponder. Why should you listen to them you might ask? Who is this woman who is having a go at tipping like a pundit?
I guess you will be able to make an assessment after the race – remembering that if I am right I am a pop up genius and if I am wrong the track bias at Rosehill is to blame! But suffice to say here, I am an avid follower of racing and thoroughbred breeding who wins often enough to be plausible and may hold some different insights into what makes what horse good on the day. So, with nothing further to lose but my plausibility, here are my thoughts on this race:
1. Black Jag. The top weight is trained by Chris Waller with the steely jock Nash Rawiller on top. This horse is tough and seasoned and it won its last start on 19 February on a slow track at Warwick Farm. His dam is by Thunder Gulch who seems to transmit strength and this 5 year old gelding has won up to 2200m. But he will carry 59.5 kgs and in his last race he came from behind to pass a small field. Much harder to do that tomorrow on this track and in a bigger field. He will need all the ‘excitable’ energy that his well-named sire seems to transmit to his stock to push out to the finishing line.
2. Forever Crazy. Another Waller runner looking to be part of a typical Waller quinella although her name does not inspire me with confidence! Her jockey does though, as Hugh Bowman is a reliable winner and this 4 year old mare has won or placed in her first five races since resuming this year. You would be crazy not to respect that form and the reliable breeding cross of Encosta De Lago over a Danehill mare.
3. Tamariz. The Favourite, as Gai Waterhouse runners often are, this 4 year old Tiger Hill gelding brings a solid recent race record and ability to lead and win to this race. His sire is very well regarded in Europe for his stayers that improve with racing and jockey Tommy Berry is riding in superb style.
4. Ultimate Gaze. A 7 year old gelding by “tough as nails” sire Intergaze out of a dour New Zealand mare, this fellow will slog it out to the line and should not be underestimated. Nor should his young trainer Michael Costa who teams up Blake Shinn who is prepared to work for every win.
5. Diamond Jim. This 6 year old gelding is a favourite of mine who looked like winning last Saturday at Randwick without my money on him for once! He only managed fifth but it was a good run and he owes me! I started following him because I followed his dam Tarcoola Diamond and the match with sire Encosta looked great on paper. Nathan Berry has beaten twin Tommy in the marriage stakes and he appears even more determined now to catch up with him in race wins on the track!
6. Dophi’s Boy. This 7 year old gelding has pulled surprise wins on us punters before and he could do so again! If it does turn out to be good weather for ducks tomorrow then this son of a Dolphin Street should swim well enough. His sire Half Hennessy produces tough progeny though we don’t see many of them going around now.
7. Dormello. I have to say that I love this horse on looks and parentage. He is out of one of my favourite race mares in Cinque Cento who was constantly under rated and delivering winnings to prove it. Her own sire Nothin’ Leica Dane is remembered for his dourness but he could also transmit that turn of foot essential for getting to the line in staying contests. His sire More Than Ready has put a little pizzazz into the genetic mix. This 4 year old gelding keeps improving every run with his last two wins in a row at the provincials. The pedigree should work – after all, he is named after the famous Italian stud farm where Tesio, the ‘wizard of Dormello’, pioneered modern breeding principles and superb race horses such as Ribot.
8. Empress Elect. This 4 year old mare takes on the older males but carries only 55 kg. Her sire Holy Roman Emperor is producing winners and her mother is by the consistent broodmare sire Hurricane Sky. Her win last Friday night at Canterbury was remarkable not for the smallness of the field but for her determination in beating what was there. She could surprise again.
9. Rhyno Chaser (Scratched)
10. Retort Courteous. This 5 year old gelding looks outclassed with only its provincial wins on the board but it has a few important things in its favour: a consistent jockey, only 54kgs in weight to lump and the Zabeel factor. Never to be underestimated, the Zabeel blood comes to the fore with care and patience and these in turn are factors which trainer Steve Englegbrecht has in his favour.
11. Albana. I saw this horse win at Goulburn on 14 February after missing the start and I thought it showed tremendous resilience to win. With the apprentice claim it comes down in the weights and it is better than its current 30-1 odds suggest. Magic Albert horses are winning a lot and this one could sneak in at nice odds.
12. Lucky Liaison. This 5 year old gelding is getting better with racing but I can’t find enough reasons to put him into my selections – except for the latter statement which may well in the way of such things come back to haunt me. I don’t know enough about him or his bloodlines to say more except that I hope he lives up to the promise of his name.
13. Zutero. Now at last we get to my ‘have a go’ horse. Before you dismiss this Nowra trained gelding too quickly you have to cognisance of a few interesting factors. Firstly, this horse came to the South Coast by way of Germany where he won well – admittedly on a good track but then Europeans tend to have heavier tracks than we recognise on paper. Secondly, this 5 year old gelding is steadily improving under the astute care of trainer Robert Price who doesn’t bring horses up from the beach for a look at the city lights. I have learnt over the punting years to always take a very hard look at long priced, seemingly outclassed horses that Robert Price brings to town. And at odds of around 200-1 when I last looked, I can’t think of a better omen bet for me for my first have a go at a blog.
My Selections:
13. Zutero (each way)
7. Dormello
3. Tamariz
11. Albana
Hobartville Stakes preview
As autumn kicks off in Australia, that means two things for Sydney - bring the washing in, it's raining; and the quality of racing is sharply improving. This year's Sydney carnival has been reinvigorated by the creation of The Championships - also known as "spending a shitload of money to attract largely the same horses". An early lead-up to the Derby is traditionally the Hobartville Stakes, and there's quite a handy field going around. Contrary to the standard for Sydney racing, there are even more than nine horses lining up (well, at least before final scratching time anyway...).
Anyhow, enough of the piss-taking, it's time to welcome a new contributor to the blog, Andrew Capelin, a full-time betting analyst who focuses on Sydney and NSW Provincial racing. He provides markets to a select group of clients and will have a website available soon. For now, the bet place to find him is via Twitter, follow him @farlad. Welcome aboard Andrew!
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Hobartville Stakes
The Hobartville Stakes is a Group 2 race run at set weights for three year olds over 1400 metres. Previously run at Warwick Farm, now at Rosehill. The race is the traditional first step towards the ATC Derby. Past winners include sires Thorn Park, Lonhro, Arena and Nothing Leica Dane as well as champions Pierro, Marscay, Baguette and Todman.
11 colts and geldings make up this year’s field with New Zealanders ATLANTE and EL ROCA adding to the intrigue of the up and running sprinters taking on the stayers on a derby path.
With rain falling in Sydney I am expecting a slow track. The rail is six metres out which puts it near the crown meaning the inside can hold up ok but by Race 6 it might be inferior.
1 Dissident J Cassidy – Peter Moody (6)
The winner of only one race comes here second up after an admirable first up run behind EL ROCA in the leadup. Best ever performance was a very tough second placing to $20 million colt ZOUSTAR in the Group 1 Golden Rose at this track and distance. Won’t settle too far away from the speed. Has some chance.
2 Romantic Touch T Berry – Gai Waterhouse (5)
Finished fast first up and has a Group 1 scalp over Zoustar (albeit the worst Group 1 race in Australia, JJ Atkins 2yo at Eagle Farm). Has failed on wet ground and seems to be racing further back this time. He might find a few of these too zippy for him.
3 Atlante G Schofield – Murray Baker (3)
The query runner. New Zealander with impressive record and a Group 1 win in NZ (they do count don’t they). Has trialled very well and will race up front. Has a hungry South African born jockey up back from enforced holiday for going too fast! Definite chance but I will risk him
4 Savvy Nature J McDonald – John O’ Shea (9)
The boom horse of last spring who came unstuck in the VRC Derby as $4 favourite. Has won first up and has an impressive SP profile in similar races. Untried on anything other than good ground. He won’t be wound up for this and I want to risk him.
5 El Roca H Bowman - Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young (10)
Avenged his unlucky Caulfield Guineas run with first up impressive win in listed 1200 this track 14 days ago. He’s an impressive individual who will go forward from the wide draw and probably sit handy and off the fence in the perfect spot. Unbeaten on dead ground ( I’m still allowed to call it dead, right?). Looks to have really developed and will be closer to his peak than most of these. Has the speed figures to win again. Really hard to beat.
6 Koroibete B Avdulla - Gerald Ryan (7)
Current Derby favourite. First try in Group company here but I feel he can measure up. A lovely horse with a graceful action who builds momentum beautifully. Probably gets too far back and will be better later on
7 Hooked N Berry – John Thompson (4)
Second up here after an acceptable first up effort in the lead up (beaten 4.1len). Will get back near last. Has been thereabouts in this company in the spring but I feel he is a rung below the better ones. A wet track advantages him slightly but not for me.
8 Liberty’s Choice T Clark – Gai Waterhouse (2)
First up. Impressive in two trial wins. Will race on pace but possibly in inferior ground near the fence (by Race 6). Is very consistent and should handle the ground ok. I just feel there might be too much pressure early as his best performances have been when dictating in front.
9 Woodbine N Rawiller – Gai Waterhouse (8)
Well-bred colt with an impressive record and SP profile in restricted races. First go in first grade. Is third up into this so has a fitness edge on the field which could come to the fore in the wet. Soft ground would be a query but he can race in the first half and get to the centre of the track. If he handles it, could be right in the finish.
10 Takewing B Shinn – Jason Coyle (1)
Maiden runner outgraded here. Failed last start on heavy at Warwick Farm and I have him well back on the fence. I couldn’t back it with Monopoly money
11 Swiggin S Clipperton (a) – Anthony Cummings (11)
Trainer likes to shoot for the stars and occasionally hits one. I liked his first up run at Wyong but it was at Wyong. He is a big type who might struggle to get momentum in the going. No thanks
Summary: I am keen on the favourite EL ROCA here. He maps well, is unbeaten on dead ground and looked to just be warming up late first up. Most of the others are in the wrong race or have their eyes on other prizes. WOODBINE for second and DISSIDENT third.
Anyhow, enough of the piss-taking, it's time to welcome a new contributor to the blog, Andrew Capelin, a full-time betting analyst who focuses on Sydney and NSW Provincial racing. He provides markets to a select group of clients and will have a website available soon. For now, the bet place to find him is via Twitter, follow him @farlad. Welcome aboard Andrew!
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Hobartville Stakes
The Hobartville Stakes is a Group 2 race run at set weights for three year olds over 1400 metres. Previously run at Warwick Farm, now at Rosehill. The race is the traditional first step towards the ATC Derby. Past winners include sires Thorn Park, Lonhro, Arena and Nothing Leica Dane as well as champions Pierro, Marscay, Baguette and Todman.
11 colts and geldings make up this year’s field with New Zealanders ATLANTE and EL ROCA adding to the intrigue of the up and running sprinters taking on the stayers on a derby path.
With rain falling in Sydney I am expecting a slow track. The rail is six metres out which puts it near the crown meaning the inside can hold up ok but by Race 6 it might be inferior.
1 Dissident J Cassidy – Peter Moody (6)
The winner of only one race comes here second up after an admirable first up run behind EL ROCA in the leadup. Best ever performance was a very tough second placing to $20 million colt ZOUSTAR in the Group 1 Golden Rose at this track and distance. Won’t settle too far away from the speed. Has some chance.
2 Romantic Touch T Berry – Gai Waterhouse (5)
Finished fast first up and has a Group 1 scalp over Zoustar (albeit the worst Group 1 race in Australia, JJ Atkins 2yo at Eagle Farm). Has failed on wet ground and seems to be racing further back this time. He might find a few of these too zippy for him.
3 Atlante G Schofield – Murray Baker (3)
The query runner. New Zealander with impressive record and a Group 1 win in NZ (they do count don’t they). Has trialled very well and will race up front. Has a hungry South African born jockey up back from enforced holiday for going too fast! Definite chance but I will risk him
4 Savvy Nature J McDonald – John O’ Shea (9)
The boom horse of last spring who came unstuck in the VRC Derby as $4 favourite. Has won first up and has an impressive SP profile in similar races. Untried on anything other than good ground. He won’t be wound up for this and I want to risk him.
5 El Roca H Bowman - Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young (10)
Avenged his unlucky Caulfield Guineas run with first up impressive win in listed 1200 this track 14 days ago. He’s an impressive individual who will go forward from the wide draw and probably sit handy and off the fence in the perfect spot. Unbeaten on dead ground ( I’m still allowed to call it dead, right?). Looks to have really developed and will be closer to his peak than most of these. Has the speed figures to win again. Really hard to beat.
6 Koroibete B Avdulla - Gerald Ryan (7)
Current Derby favourite. First try in Group company here but I feel he can measure up. A lovely horse with a graceful action who builds momentum beautifully. Probably gets too far back and will be better later on
7 Hooked N Berry – John Thompson (4)
Second up here after an acceptable first up effort in the lead up (beaten 4.1len). Will get back near last. Has been thereabouts in this company in the spring but I feel he is a rung below the better ones. A wet track advantages him slightly but not for me.
8 Liberty’s Choice T Clark – Gai Waterhouse (2)
First up. Impressive in two trial wins. Will race on pace but possibly in inferior ground near the fence (by Race 6). Is very consistent and should handle the ground ok. I just feel there might be too much pressure early as his best performances have been when dictating in front.
9 Woodbine N Rawiller – Gai Waterhouse (8)
Well-bred colt with an impressive record and SP profile in restricted races. First go in first grade. Is third up into this so has a fitness edge on the field which could come to the fore in the wet. Soft ground would be a query but he can race in the first half and get to the centre of the track. If he handles it, could be right in the finish.
10 Takewing B Shinn – Jason Coyle (1)
Maiden runner outgraded here. Failed last start on heavy at Warwick Farm and I have him well back on the fence. I couldn’t back it with Monopoly money
11 Swiggin S Clipperton (a) – Anthony Cummings (11)
Trainer likes to shoot for the stars and occasionally hits one. I liked his first up run at Wyong but it was at Wyong. He is a big type who might struggle to get momentum in the going. No thanks
Summary: I am keen on the favourite EL ROCA here. He maps well, is unbeaten on dead ground and looked to just be warming up late first up. Most of the others are in the wrong race or have their eyes on other prizes. WOODBINE for second and DISSIDENT third.
Thursday, 27 February 2014
Australian Guineas preview
The 3yo feature of the Melbourne autumn/Festival of Racing/Relaxed Racing/ schedule is the Australian Guineas over the metric mile. As Manny says below, it's had a chequered run as to how prestigious the race turns out to be each year, but it is that all-important Group 1, and on paper, this is quite a decent field.
Returning after his assessment and tip last week were spot on, is astute form analyst Manny Galouzis, @mannygalouzis.
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Australian Guineas
G'day punters! All eyes on Flemington this week as we are treated to another edition of the Group 1 Australian Guineas. I hope some of you followed me in at the 9/4 on Moment of Change last week; fingers crossed we can make it two in a row! But first, a little bit of history on the great race.
Inaugurated in 1986, the Australian Guineas has been won by some decent horses over the years. That being said, in recent times, many of the winners have not gone on to do much else later in their careers. No Guineas winner since 2007 has gone on to win an open class Group 1. Enough history, time to find a winner.
1. Shamus Award
First-up after the strangest Cox Plate I've ever seen, my eyes were firmly planted on Shamus Award in the G1 Orr Stakes. Not from a financial perspective, but just to see if he is the real-deal, or if it was a fluke win. After the Orr, I'm not totally convinced either way. It was a decent enough run for a horse wanting further, but his inclination to lay-in and the fact he was only a few lengths behind Moment of Change on a slowish pace makes me want to risk him here. From barrier 9 he should be pressing forward and more than likely settle outside the leader. I think he is a place chance but I can't see him winning this.
2. Criterion
Quite a slashing first-up run for a horse who is going to be best over a minimum of 10 furlongs. I really like the way he finished off in the G3 CS Hayes Stakes, but I couldn't see him winning here. He will settle closer to last and storm home in a similar fashion to last start. Rough place chance but he won't be winning.
3. Eurozone
Unlucky not to have won first-up in the G1 Orr Stakes, Eurozone's credentials have been further confirmed after Moment of Change came out last week and won the G1 Futurity in impressive fashion. His last 100m was very encouraging and that says to me that this horse is cherry ripe going into Saturday's race. Bart came out a few days ago and said that he wasn't sure how Hucklebuck was favourite over Eurozone and I have to say, I agree with the great man. Eurozone should be the clear favourite for mine and I am all but declaring him in this race. The one to beat.
4. Thunder Fantasy
A very nice win first-up in the G2 Autumn Stakes, however he did have an absolute dream run in transit. He should get a similar run again here and could give punters a decent sight for the money at the 13/1 available. One of the chances.
5. Hucklebuck
The pre post favourite for the race for a while now, Hucklebuck will be out to try and give trainer Phillip Stokes his first Group 1 victory outside of Adelaide. This horse has built up a very impressive record of five wins from seven starts, never being out of a place. After his win last start, he cemented his favouritism for this race, but I am going to risk him. I am slightly worried about barrier eight, taking into consideration that the horse is usually in the first three pairs in running AND the Flemington 1600m start almost immediately goes into a large turn until they hit the home straight. This, in conjunction with Eurozone's last run being more impressive (in my humble opinion) means I think he is unders at the 11/4 currently available. He is obviously a massive chance of winning the race, but I'm taking him on.
6. Prince Harada
Tony Vasil has had massive wraps on this colt since day dot. He clearly has a ton of ability, but has trouble putting it altogether. I thought he stuck on very nicely last start. I don't think he can win, but if he has no issues then I can definitely see him running a place.
7. Rock Hero
David Payne has instructed that he will be ridden much quieter than last start here and based on that alone, I'm putting a pen through him. You won't see this horse's best until the ATC Derby, which has been the plan all along. Watch out for him finishing nicely down the outside, but he shouldn't be fighting out the finish.
8. Surge Ahead
Would have to improve 10 lengths to beat this lot, not for mine.
9. Teronado
I thought he finished off nice enough in the CS Hayes, but he will be giving them a very big start on the home turn. Pass.
10. The Quarterback
I liked his run last start, finishing off well enough to be beaten 2L. Barrier 11 makes things tricky. Could run a place, don't think he can win though.
11. Late Charge
See The Quarterback. Nice run last start, beaten 2L. Barrier 12, goes back and runs on. Can't win.
12. Alpha Beat
Not sure what Anthony Cummings is doing here; back in distance from the 1800m of the G2 Autumn Classic. He is 66/1 and that's probably a fair price. No.
13. Bardem
Only beaten 2.2L by Thunder Fantasy last start. I've probably seen worse 66/1 shots. That being said, can't have him here.
14. Artie's Shore
Beaten in a BM70 and then next start wins the Australian Guineas? Didn't think so. If he can run 8th and pick up $10,000 for connections, he's done well.
Surge Ahead will probably do just that and utilise its inside draw to take up the running, Shamus Award coming across from barrier 9 to sit outside of it. Prince Harada and Thunder Fantasy are likely to be the next two in running, and then Eurozone slotting in one off the fence outside of Bardem. Hucklebuck and Criterion next, with the rest of the field bringing them up. I'm not expecting a overly fast tempo. Horses settling in the first half of the field will be much better off than the rest of them. Eurozone and Thunder Fantasy should get the best runs in the race I think.
I've marked Eurozone a $2.60 favourite in this and given that as much as $5.00 is currently available with some corporates, he is a big bet for mine. Barrier 8 or not, Hucklebuck is in this up to his ears. I just can't get excited about the price. Thunder Fantasy could be a nice place bet at odds of about $3.75. He will lob in a handy spot and should be somewhere thereabouts in the home straight. Finally, if they go overly slow in front, Shamus Award could have a nice little kick left and take us all back to that fateful day at the Valley.
Selections:
3. Eurozone
5. Hucklebuck
4. Thunder Fantasy
1. Shamus Award
Recommended Bet:
Back EUROZONE the win.
Good luck punters, and as always, there is no such thing as the last race.
Returning after his assessment and tip last week were spot on, is astute form analyst Manny Galouzis, @mannygalouzis.
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Australian Guineas
G'day punters! All eyes on Flemington this week as we are treated to another edition of the Group 1 Australian Guineas. I hope some of you followed me in at the 9/4 on Moment of Change last week; fingers crossed we can make it two in a row! But first, a little bit of history on the great race.
Inaugurated in 1986, the Australian Guineas has been won by some decent horses over the years. That being said, in recent times, many of the winners have not gone on to do much else later in their careers. No Guineas winner since 2007 has gone on to win an open class Group 1. Enough history, time to find a winner.
1. Shamus Award
First-up after the strangest Cox Plate I've ever seen, my eyes were firmly planted on Shamus Award in the G1 Orr Stakes. Not from a financial perspective, but just to see if he is the real-deal, or if it was a fluke win. After the Orr, I'm not totally convinced either way. It was a decent enough run for a horse wanting further, but his inclination to lay-in and the fact he was only a few lengths behind Moment of Change on a slowish pace makes me want to risk him here. From barrier 9 he should be pressing forward and more than likely settle outside the leader. I think he is a place chance but I can't see him winning this.
2. Criterion
Quite a slashing first-up run for a horse who is going to be best over a minimum of 10 furlongs. I really like the way he finished off in the G3 CS Hayes Stakes, but I couldn't see him winning here. He will settle closer to last and storm home in a similar fashion to last start. Rough place chance but he won't be winning.
3. Eurozone
Unlucky not to have won first-up in the G1 Orr Stakes, Eurozone's credentials have been further confirmed after Moment of Change came out last week and won the G1 Futurity in impressive fashion. His last 100m was very encouraging and that says to me that this horse is cherry ripe going into Saturday's race. Bart came out a few days ago and said that he wasn't sure how Hucklebuck was favourite over Eurozone and I have to say, I agree with the great man. Eurozone should be the clear favourite for mine and I am all but declaring him in this race. The one to beat.
4. Thunder Fantasy
A very nice win first-up in the G2 Autumn Stakes, however he did have an absolute dream run in transit. He should get a similar run again here and could give punters a decent sight for the money at the 13/1 available. One of the chances.
5. Hucklebuck
The pre post favourite for the race for a while now, Hucklebuck will be out to try and give trainer Phillip Stokes his first Group 1 victory outside of Adelaide. This horse has built up a very impressive record of five wins from seven starts, never being out of a place. After his win last start, he cemented his favouritism for this race, but I am going to risk him. I am slightly worried about barrier eight, taking into consideration that the horse is usually in the first three pairs in running AND the Flemington 1600m start almost immediately goes into a large turn until they hit the home straight. This, in conjunction with Eurozone's last run being more impressive (in my humble opinion) means I think he is unders at the 11/4 currently available. He is obviously a massive chance of winning the race, but I'm taking him on.
6. Prince Harada
Tony Vasil has had massive wraps on this colt since day dot. He clearly has a ton of ability, but has trouble putting it altogether. I thought he stuck on very nicely last start. I don't think he can win, but if he has no issues then I can definitely see him running a place.
7. Rock Hero
David Payne has instructed that he will be ridden much quieter than last start here and based on that alone, I'm putting a pen through him. You won't see this horse's best until the ATC Derby, which has been the plan all along. Watch out for him finishing nicely down the outside, but he shouldn't be fighting out the finish.
8. Surge Ahead
Would have to improve 10 lengths to beat this lot, not for mine.
9. Teronado
I thought he finished off nice enough in the CS Hayes, but he will be giving them a very big start on the home turn. Pass.
10. The Quarterback
I liked his run last start, finishing off well enough to be beaten 2L. Barrier 11 makes things tricky. Could run a place, don't think he can win though.
11. Late Charge
See The Quarterback. Nice run last start, beaten 2L. Barrier 12, goes back and runs on. Can't win.
12. Alpha Beat
Not sure what Anthony Cummings is doing here; back in distance from the 1800m of the G2 Autumn Classic. He is 66/1 and that's probably a fair price. No.
13. Bardem
Only beaten 2.2L by Thunder Fantasy last start. I've probably seen worse 66/1 shots. That being said, can't have him here.
14. Artie's Shore
Beaten in a BM70 and then next start wins the Australian Guineas? Didn't think so. If he can run 8th and pick up $10,000 for connections, he's done well.
Surge Ahead will probably do just that and utilise its inside draw to take up the running, Shamus Award coming across from barrier 9 to sit outside of it. Prince Harada and Thunder Fantasy are likely to be the next two in running, and then Eurozone slotting in one off the fence outside of Bardem. Hucklebuck and Criterion next, with the rest of the field bringing them up. I'm not expecting a overly fast tempo. Horses settling in the first half of the field will be much better off than the rest of them. Eurozone and Thunder Fantasy should get the best runs in the race I think.
I've marked Eurozone a $2.60 favourite in this and given that as much as $5.00 is currently available with some corporates, he is a big bet for mine. Barrier 8 or not, Hucklebuck is in this up to his ears. I just can't get excited about the price. Thunder Fantasy could be a nice place bet at odds of about $3.75. He will lob in a handy spot and should be somewhere thereabouts in the home straight. Finally, if they go overly slow in front, Shamus Award could have a nice little kick left and take us all back to that fateful day at the Valley.
Selections:
3. Eurozone
5. Hucklebuck
4. Thunder Fantasy
1. Shamus Award
Recommended Bet:
Back EUROZONE the win.
Good luck punters, and as always, there is no such thing as the last race.
Sunday, 23 February 2014
Foxhunter Trial - Fontwell 4.20 preview
Ut's not often I have a preview for Sunday racing but Cheltenham caters for many different classes of race, and while the Foxhunter Chase mightn't be blue deemed as blue riband, it still goes down as a Festival winner!
Kieran Kenneally, @kierankenneally chips in with the preview of this 3m2.5f Hunter Chase which will be a tough slog in the expected heavy going.
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Foxhunter Trial - Fontwell 4.20
I've always looked at the Kempton meeting at the end of February as the last piece in the Cheltenham jigsaw puzzle, and it has thrown up many a winner over the years. Having said that and with some top class racing all over the world this weekend, it can sometimes pay to look at the smaller meetings for value or a smaller stables "Gold Cup!"
The 4:20 at Fontwell on Sunday is one such race. Sally Duckett sends Radetsky March here for his second run of the season. His record for the last five years on his second run is Won 25/1, 2nd 28/1, Won 20/1, Won 10/1 and Won 11/10! Early prices this year suggest he may be available at 7/1. This two-time course winner, including this race last year can keep up a remarkable sequence and put up a stout defence of this race. (Ed. - bizarre stat on this horses - last 10 starts, three wins, seven times pulled up!)
The likely hot favourite this year Richard's Sundance on early showings at 1/2 is in my opinion way too short and worth taking on. On a line through Le Beau Bai he has little in hand, if anything on the selection.
Adept Aproach is a course winner in a fast time and as a younger horse may be the biggest danger!
Arkendale last won on the track on the 27-10-09 and would appear to prefer better ground.
The other two runners, Behind The Scenes (never won on the track) and Man From Moscow would have little chance on ratings!
In conclusion for a horse with a return of over £50+ (including p2p's) to a £1 stake in his career and a strike rate of around 25% Radetsky March rates a maximum bet from me to continue a six year love affair. I have won close to €3,000 on this horse in that time with a biggest bet of around €50. For those of you worried about taking on a short favourite, there is still each way value in a 7/1 price for two places!
Kieran Kenneally, @kierankenneally chips in with the preview of this 3m2.5f Hunter Chase which will be a tough slog in the expected heavy going.
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Foxhunter Trial - Fontwell 4.20
I've always looked at the Kempton meeting at the end of February as the last piece in the Cheltenham jigsaw puzzle, and it has thrown up many a winner over the years. Having said that and with some top class racing all over the world this weekend, it can sometimes pay to look at the smaller meetings for value or a smaller stables "Gold Cup!"
The 4:20 at Fontwell on Sunday is one such race. Sally Duckett sends Radetsky March here for his second run of the season. His record for the last five years on his second run is Won 25/1, 2nd 28/1, Won 20/1, Won 10/1 and Won 11/10! Early prices this year suggest he may be available at 7/1. This two-time course winner, including this race last year can keep up a remarkable sequence and put up a stout defence of this race. (Ed. - bizarre stat on this horses - last 10 starts, three wins, seven times pulled up!)
The likely hot favourite this year Richard's Sundance on early showings at 1/2 is in my opinion way too short and worth taking on. On a line through Le Beau Bai he has little in hand, if anything on the selection.
Adept Aproach is a course winner in a fast time and as a younger horse may be the biggest danger!
Arkendale last won on the track on the 27-10-09 and would appear to prefer better ground.
The other two runners, Behind The Scenes (never won on the track) and Man From Moscow would have little chance on ratings!
In conclusion for a horse with a return of over £50+ (including p2p's) to a £1 stake in his career and a strike rate of around 25% Radetsky March rates a maximum bet from me to continue a six year love affair. I have won close to €3,000 on this horse in that time with a biggest bet of around €50. For those of you worried about taking on a short favourite, there is still each way value in a 7/1 price for two places!
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