This was always coming in the States - the structure of stakeholders in American racing is considerably different to those they have faced previously in Britain and Australia. Everyone gets a say and there's no controlling body (government or administrator) who can push things through without approval at all levels. The horsemen's groups, in case the TOC, are as stubborn as they come. Racing in the US is dying big time, and yet anything which has a chance of moving the game forward has to jump through an incredible number of hurdles. Every argument they bring up - eg integrity, has been covered in depth everywhere else, yet the TOC has to re-invent the wheel to consider it. Racing has corrupt elements everywhere - if you endorse cash betting, no matter how many markets offered, how much percentage takeout, or betting on the horse to win or lose, then the argument is a furphy. Cash betting is faceless, and anonymity is the fraudster's best friend. Plus it's mind-boggling that any racing body even attempts to play the integrity card when at the same time they endorse American racing's drug culture without the tiniest bit of conscience.
TOC tables exchange-betting talks until next year
Exchange betting will not be implemented in California in 2012, and TVG and HRTV have been given the go-ahead to negotiate an agreement to televise each other’s California races in decisions reached by the board of directors of the Thoroughbred Owners of California at its monthly board meeting on Friday.
The board of the TOC, the state’s official representative of horsemen, opted not to take a vote on the approval of exchange betting for the upcoming Del Mar meeting, from July 18 to Sept. 5. The Del Mar meeting is the earliest the controversial bet could have been offered.
Officials with Del Mar and Betfair-TVG had lobbied hard in recent months for TOC approval for exchange betting, which allows customers to post odds and accept wagers on whether a horse will win or lose a race.
In a statement released late Friday, the TOC said it will not take up the issue of exchange betting for a year. There has been widespread concern from some parties in the sport, notably trainers, that they could be scrutinized for alleged wrongdoing because of the nature of exchange betting, particularly when a horse is bet to lose.
“The concept of exchange wagering has been a polarizing issue among the stakeholders in California racing,” TOC chairman Mike Pegram said in a statement. “This action will give us additional time to study this betting alternative and consider if it is in the best interests of the industry in our state.”
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Further comments from Betfair/TVG and the industry can be found in this followup article.
Betfair TVG officials miffed at TOC stance on exchange betting
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I spoke to a senior Betfair UK exec at Sandown races on Thursday night and this matter came up. Either he was putting on a brave face or they still haven't grasped just how monumental a task it will be to overcome these horsemen's groups in the US. And with Stephen Burn leading the way in California for Betfair/TVG, it just isn't going to happen... Watch what happens to the share price when UK markets open again, it might not be pretty.
Monday, 4 June 2012
Saturday, 2 June 2012
Prix du Jockey Club preview
Smallest field in 105 years at Epsom for Camelot's Derby, but a capacity field of 20 in the French equivalent. And it's a damn good race too, plenty of chances here with the favourite marked overnight at only 9/2. Calum Madell (@calummadell) did the hard work on this preview including the tips, I've added a few bits & pieces, including links for race replays.
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A fascinating renewal of the French Classic which has a strong home and away contingent. The UK and Ireland have a number of very good runners and this hots up to be a great race.
The unbeaten Kesampour leads the charge for France. Mikel Delzangles has proved himself as one of the best trainers in France. The trip should be absolutely ideal on breeding and he should at least confirm form with Top Trip in this and give a great account of himself. Won the Prix Greffulhe last start, which Pour Moi won last year going into the Epsom Derby.
French Fifteen won the Criterium De Saint Cloud last year and after a smart reappearance, then duly ran a superb 2nd to subsequent Epsom Derby winner Camelot in the 2000 Guineas. That is really strong form and although he needs to prove he handles better ground just as well and the trip, both should be no problem and he probably rates as the one to beat.
Course and distance winner Lunayir is not without hope at a big price although needs to step up. His two seconds were close up behind Hermival (2000 Guineas form) and Albion (rival today).
Andre Fabre has two and on jockey bookings Saint Bauldolino is his best chance over Albion, who found Kesampour too good last time. It's hard to see Maxime Guyon getting that wrong and although both need to improve, they certainly can and that puts them in the mix. Saint Baudolino's last win in the G3 Prix De Guiche can be seen here - it's worth a look! See Kesampour for Albion's last start replay, Frankie rides him this time.
Hard Dream should be finishing well late on. He was a winner at Longchamp over 1m3f in April in the G2 Prix Noailles, form of which is decent (note nearly 20secs slower than standard!) but he would need quite a bit of luck in running in this field.
Top Trip is a rare runner in this for predominantly jumps stable of Francois Doumen, won the Prix Hocquart last start at 16/1.
Sofast needs to find a little more and doesn't strike as a natural Prix Du Jockey Club type.
The British and Irish contingent looks pretty strong and the one that really catches my eye is EKTIHAAM. He was a taking winner of a Newbury 1m2f event where he beat Wrotham Heath (won Epsom handicap off 90). Then in a smart Dante field he was for me unlucky not to beat Bonfire in a close finish. He came from off the pace after pulling hard and being reluctant to go in the stalls but he showed a marked turn of foot, only to be headed by the slightly stronger stayer as the early exertions told. He is well drawn here with a slightly stronger pace likely to suit while the return of Paul Hanagan is another big boost and he looks an ideal candidate.
Most Improved runs for the first time this season after missing the Craven and the Guineas after a setback. He is extremely well regarded by Brian Meehan (was heavily backed in buildup to 2000 Guineas) but this will be some ask on his reappearance but it's interesting connections go for this instead of targets over a mile.
Imperial Monarch opts to come here after swerving the Derby and that may be a wise option. He was a taking winner at Sandown last time when racing all on his own on the wide outside, beating Thought Worthy who has franked the form since and ran well in the Epsom Derby. He is good value for that victory and more and while he may come on for a step up to 1m4f this should not prevent a big run to complete the Derby double for connections who won with Camelot at Epsom.
John Gosden did well in France last year with Colombian and has a similar type in Gregorian who also comes in with just a maiden win to his name. He has it to find in a really good race but should run his race and we'll know more after this.
Amaron is a German colt who finished a close-up fourth in the 2012 Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), that's him along the rails. Awful draw but Danedream winning the Arc last year taught us not to underestimate German form.
Verdict
A fantastic race with a strong home challenge and with runners from abroad making it even more intriguing. EKTIHAAM is a strong fancy here though with this race looking ideal for him. He has a significant turn of foot, as seen when only just failing to beat Bonfire in the Dante but with his early exertions he is good value for better than he showed. He is well drawn and looks to have an outstanding chance. Kesampour has done little wrong so far and should go well while French Fifteen's Guineas 2nd has worked out really well and he seems more of a middle distance type too. Saint Bauldchine is rapidly improving while Lunayir and Albion have e/w claims for the home team. Away from home, Ektihaam is the one for me as already mentioned but Imperial Monarch must go close. His Sandown win over Thought Worthy where he travelled wide all the way is working well and he should go well for the all-conquering Ballydoyle operation. It's interesting that Most Improved comes here rather than over a mile for his return after his setback which meant he missed the Guineas but he would need to be pretty special to go out and win this. Elsewhere Hard Dream is interesting but would need some luck while Top Trip can't be totally dismissed. Sofast has ability but doesn't strike as a 10f horse while we'll find out a lot more about John Gosden's Gregorian though the stable are in good form.
Advice - Ektihaam 4pts win @7/1 generally
You can read more of Calum's work on his site TheYoungRacegoer.
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A fascinating renewal of the French Classic which has a strong home and away contingent. The UK and Ireland have a number of very good runners and this hots up to be a great race.
The unbeaten Kesampour leads the charge for France. Mikel Delzangles has proved himself as one of the best trainers in France. The trip should be absolutely ideal on breeding and he should at least confirm form with Top Trip in this and give a great account of himself. Won the Prix Greffulhe last start, which Pour Moi won last year going into the Epsom Derby.
French Fifteen won the Criterium De Saint Cloud last year and after a smart reappearance, then duly ran a superb 2nd to subsequent Epsom Derby winner Camelot in the 2000 Guineas. That is really strong form and although he needs to prove he handles better ground just as well and the trip, both should be no problem and he probably rates as the one to beat.
Course and distance winner Lunayir is not without hope at a big price although needs to step up. His two seconds were close up behind Hermival (2000 Guineas form) and Albion (rival today).
Andre Fabre has two and on jockey bookings Saint Bauldolino is his best chance over Albion, who found Kesampour too good last time. It's hard to see Maxime Guyon getting that wrong and although both need to improve, they certainly can and that puts them in the mix. Saint Baudolino's last win in the G3 Prix De Guiche can be seen here - it's worth a look! See Kesampour for Albion's last start replay, Frankie rides him this time.
Hard Dream should be finishing well late on. He was a winner at Longchamp over 1m3f in April in the G2 Prix Noailles, form of which is decent (note nearly 20secs slower than standard!) but he would need quite a bit of luck in running in this field.
Top Trip is a rare runner in this for predominantly jumps stable of Francois Doumen, won the Prix Hocquart last start at 16/1.
Sofast needs to find a little more and doesn't strike as a natural Prix Du Jockey Club type.
The British and Irish contingent looks pretty strong and the one that really catches my eye is EKTIHAAM. He was a taking winner of a Newbury 1m2f event where he beat Wrotham Heath (won Epsom handicap off 90). Then in a smart Dante field he was for me unlucky not to beat Bonfire in a close finish. He came from off the pace after pulling hard and being reluctant to go in the stalls but he showed a marked turn of foot, only to be headed by the slightly stronger stayer as the early exertions told. He is well drawn here with a slightly stronger pace likely to suit while the return of Paul Hanagan is another big boost and he looks an ideal candidate.
Most Improved runs for the first time this season after missing the Craven and the Guineas after a setback. He is extremely well regarded by Brian Meehan (was heavily backed in buildup to 2000 Guineas) but this will be some ask on his reappearance but it's interesting connections go for this instead of targets over a mile.
Imperial Monarch opts to come here after swerving the Derby and that may be a wise option. He was a taking winner at Sandown last time when racing all on his own on the wide outside, beating Thought Worthy who has franked the form since and ran well in the Epsom Derby. He is good value for that victory and more and while he may come on for a step up to 1m4f this should not prevent a big run to complete the Derby double for connections who won with Camelot at Epsom.
John Gosden did well in France last year with Colombian and has a similar type in Gregorian who also comes in with just a maiden win to his name. He has it to find in a really good race but should run his race and we'll know more after this.
Amaron is a German colt who finished a close-up fourth in the 2012 Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), that's him along the rails. Awful draw but Danedream winning the Arc last year taught us not to underestimate German form.
Verdict
A fantastic race with a strong home challenge and with runners from abroad making it even more intriguing. EKTIHAAM is a strong fancy here though with this race looking ideal for him. He has a significant turn of foot, as seen when only just failing to beat Bonfire in the Dante but with his early exertions he is good value for better than he showed. He is well drawn and looks to have an outstanding chance. Kesampour has done little wrong so far and should go well while French Fifteen's Guineas 2nd has worked out really well and he seems more of a middle distance type too. Saint Bauldchine is rapidly improving while Lunayir and Albion have e/w claims for the home team. Away from home, Ektihaam is the one for me as already mentioned but Imperial Monarch must go close. His Sandown win over Thought Worthy where he travelled wide all the way is working well and he should go well for the all-conquering Ballydoyle operation. It's interesting that Most Improved comes here rather than over a mile for his return after his setback which meant he missed the Guineas but he would need to be pretty special to go out and win this. Elsewhere Hard Dream is interesting but would need some luck while Top Trip can't be totally dismissed. Sofast has ability but doesn't strike as a 10f horse while we'll find out a lot more about John Gosden's Gregorian though the stable are in good form.
Advice - Ektihaam 4pts win @7/1 generally
You can read more of Calum's work on his site TheYoungRacegoer.
La Premio Villapadierna (Spanish Derby) preview
Believe it or not, it's also the Spanish Derby this weekend so that deserves a preview as well. Mariano Zomeno, @ThoroughbrSpain, runs the ThorougbredsInSpain blog and kindly gave me permission to reprint his preview of the race....
Premio Villapadierna (Spanish Derby), Sunday June 3 2012
The Sunday 3 meeting at the La Zarzuela racecourse of Madrid incluids in its racecard the Premio Villapadierna (Spanish Derby), [2,400 m, 3yos, 34,800 euros for the winner]. This edition is, as always a crossroad to test horses coming from different lines, namely the Premio Velayos (won by the unbeaten Galipoli, with Fortun second), the GP Nacional (Alonso, the winner is absent from the Villapadierna, but 2nd, 3rd and fourth will run), the Cimera (Guineas), represented by Nuredyn - 4th in the GP Nacional - and Riky Rock and also raiders from France (Around the Moon, Campillo), etc.
This is the field:
Around the Moon (IRE, 2009), bay colt [Danehill Dancer-Moon Flower(Sadler's Wells)], owned by Cuadra Chicago, trained by M. Delcher S. Will be ridden by J. Horcajada. Recntly bought in FRance.
Arsalan (GB, 2009), bay colt [Halling-Kali(Linamix)], owned by Reza Pazooki, trained by F. Rodríguez. Will be ridden by R- C. Montenegro.
Campillo (FR, 2009), bay colt [Lando-Milisa(Anabaa)], owned by Cuadra Cholaica, trained by J. L. Maroto. Will be ridden by C. Nora.
Fortun (IRE, 2009), a bay colt [Bachelor Duke-Duckmore Bay(Titus Livius)], owned by Cuadra La Toledana, trained by J. L. Maroto. Will be ridden by J. Crocquevieille. Second to Galipoli in the Velayos.
Galipoli (FR, 2009), bay colt [Sulamani-Sweet Willa(Assert)], owned by Cuadra San Rafael, trained by Teo Callejo. Will be ridden by V. Janacek. Winner of the Premio Velayos 2012. Galipoli is unbeaten in three starts and won the Premio Velayos 2012, traditional prep race for the Villapadierna.
Giggolo Star (SPA, 2009), ch.colt [Dyhim Diamond-Flamingo Star(Limpid)], owned by Cuadra Magaña, trained by J. C. Fernández R. Will be ridden by J. C. Cerqueira. He was third in the GP Nacional.
Gustei (SPA, 2009), bay colt [Baptize-Party Dress(Lahib)], owned by Cuadra Peñarroya, trained by C. Gallipoli, will be ridden by R. Ramos.
Kadmios (FR, 2009), bay colt [Kavafi-Erika(Distant Relative)], owned by Cuadra Nakata, trained and ridden by J. L. Martínez.
Monsieur Opera (FR, 2009), bay colt [Lando-Mensa Sonne(Monsun)], owned by Salvador Márquez, trained by J. López. Will be ridden by O. Ortiz de Urbina. Winner of his only start (beating Sportside, - then 2nd in the Beamonte -, and Giggolo Star).
Nuredyn (FR, 2009), bay colt [Dyhim Diamond-Nurenieva(Enrique)], owned by Cuadra Zurraquín, trained by M. Hernández, will be ridden by J. Grosjean. Winner of the Premio Cimera (2,000 Guineas), he was fourth in the GP Nacional.
Phuket (SPA, 2009), ch. colt [Multazem-New Vert(Vert Amande)], owned by María de Salas, trained by J. L. de Salas, will be ridden by J. L. Borrego. Phuket was 2nd in his last and best performance to date, in the GP Nacional. He is half brother to Cimera winner Festeiro and GP Nacional winner Newango and also to Listed performer Vert Helice.
Riky Rock (IRE, 2009), bay colt [Invincible Spirit-Hataana(Robellino], owned by Cuadra Bloke, trained by J. A. Rodríguez. He was second to Nuredyn in the Cimera
The winners of the previous runnings of the Villapadierna were Ayanz (2011), Plantagenet (2010), Domeside (2009), Tsarabi (2008), Premier Galop (2007) and Palamoss (2006).
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Must admit I have no idea where you can bet on this race outside of Spain, or even on track. Perhaps some of the locals or Gibraltar guys could share that with us. For a look at other races on the card, check out the rest of the preview.
Premio Villapadierna (Spanish Derby), Sunday June 3 2012
The Sunday 3 meeting at the La Zarzuela racecourse of Madrid incluids in its racecard the Premio Villapadierna (Spanish Derby), [2,400 m, 3yos, 34,800 euros for the winner]. This edition is, as always a crossroad to test horses coming from different lines, namely the Premio Velayos (won by the unbeaten Galipoli, with Fortun second), the GP Nacional (Alonso, the winner is absent from the Villapadierna, but 2nd, 3rd and fourth will run), the Cimera (Guineas), represented by Nuredyn - 4th in the GP Nacional - and Riky Rock and also raiders from France (Around the Moon, Campillo), etc.
This is the field:
Around the Moon (IRE, 2009), bay colt [Danehill Dancer-Moon Flower(Sadler's Wells)], owned by Cuadra Chicago, trained by M. Delcher S. Will be ridden by J. Horcajada. Recntly bought in FRance.
Arsalan (GB, 2009), bay colt [Halling-Kali(Linamix)], owned by Reza Pazooki, trained by F. Rodríguez. Will be ridden by R- C. Montenegro.
Campillo (FR, 2009), bay colt [Lando-Milisa(Anabaa)], owned by Cuadra Cholaica, trained by J. L. Maroto. Will be ridden by C. Nora.
Fortun (IRE, 2009), a bay colt [Bachelor Duke-Duckmore Bay(Titus Livius)], owned by Cuadra La Toledana, trained by J. L. Maroto. Will be ridden by J. Crocquevieille. Second to Galipoli in the Velayos.
Galipoli (FR, 2009), bay colt [Sulamani-Sweet Willa(Assert)], owned by Cuadra San Rafael, trained by Teo Callejo. Will be ridden by V. Janacek. Winner of the Premio Velayos 2012. Galipoli is unbeaten in three starts and won the Premio Velayos 2012, traditional prep race for the Villapadierna.
Giggolo Star (SPA, 2009), ch.colt [Dyhim Diamond-Flamingo Star(Limpid)], owned by Cuadra Magaña, trained by J. C. Fernández R. Will be ridden by J. C. Cerqueira. He was third in the GP Nacional.
Gustei (SPA, 2009), bay colt [Baptize-Party Dress(Lahib)], owned by Cuadra Peñarroya, trained by C. Gallipoli, will be ridden by R. Ramos.
Kadmios (FR, 2009), bay colt [Kavafi-Erika(Distant Relative)], owned by Cuadra Nakata, trained and ridden by J. L. Martínez.
Monsieur Opera (FR, 2009), bay colt [Lando-Mensa Sonne(Monsun)], owned by Salvador Márquez, trained by J. López. Will be ridden by O. Ortiz de Urbina. Winner of his only start (beating Sportside, - then 2nd in the Beamonte -, and Giggolo Star).
Nuredyn (FR, 2009), bay colt [Dyhim Diamond-Nurenieva(Enrique)], owned by Cuadra Zurraquín, trained by M. Hernández, will be ridden by J. Grosjean. Winner of the Premio Cimera (2,000 Guineas), he was fourth in the GP Nacional.
Phuket (SPA, 2009), ch. colt [Multazem-New Vert(Vert Amande)], owned by María de Salas, trained by J. L. de Salas, will be ridden by J. L. Borrego. Phuket was 2nd in his last and best performance to date, in the GP Nacional. He is half brother to Cimera winner Festeiro and GP Nacional winner Newango and also to Listed performer Vert Helice.
Riky Rock (IRE, 2009), bay colt [Invincible Spirit-Hataana(Robellino], owned by Cuadra Bloke, trained by J. A. Rodríguez. He was second to Nuredyn in the Cimera
The winners of the previous runnings of the Villapadierna were Ayanz (2011), Plantagenet (2010), Domeside (2009), Tsarabi (2008), Premier Galop (2007) and Palamoss (2006).
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Must admit I have no idea where you can bet on this race outside of Spain, or even on track. Perhaps some of the locals or Gibraltar guys could share that with us. For a look at other races on the card, check out the rest of the preview.
Edinburgh Cup preview
There's some decent racing up in Scotland today too, the Edinburgh Cup has assembled a quality field, and Dan Kelly covers this one too.
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It's not all Camelot, Camelot, Camelot here in British Racing, as Musselburgh hold a great card of their own today, feature being the £50,000 Edinburgh Gold Cup, and they haven't been let down with the quality of runners in recent years. Harris Tweed won this in 2010, with the likes of Corsica and Zuider Zee behind, 2011 was won by Eternal Heart, Namibian and Colour Vision behind him. Form of the race will definitely hold up as many of the unlucky losers, actually are just that given the nature of the track, tight right hand sharp track, and if you are looking at closers you need all the luck in the world here.
Reviewing the last two runnings just shows how much Mark Johnston targets this race with beaten runners like Corisca, Namibian and Colour Vision ending up Group winners, and his runners today are certainly worth closer attention.
It's hard to rate a horse who ran on his own, was did he benefit from running alone on better ground etc, but Maastricht has to be one of the likelier winners of this event. Dam a Gr3 1m1f US winner, and out of Tiger Hill, no surprise to see him come into his own when facing a test, ended 2yo days with a shd defeat in a Bath handicap, but that doesn't tell the story has he fended off challenges throughout, headed in last stride, 8 days after breaking his maiden tag at Beverley, as such a bit of a surprise to see him go off 25s at Newmarket. That Newmarket race does look solid though, Suraj is well thought of by Michael Bell when reading his blog notes, Handsome Man wasn't given a great ride behind Expense Claim at Salisbury by Ted Durcan, returned to winning form for Frankie here and is the best form any runner has to offer. Drawn in 6 Joe Fanning is certainly going to look to make it, and being on the pace is a big help here.
Another Johnston runners deserves a closer look and that is Bordoni. Out of a Oaks placed mare who later ran in US Turf Races, and sired by Bernardini, I wouldn't be too worried by defeats at Catterick and Chester on bottomless ground. His Kempton run behind Theturnofthesun who had the best possible trip is solid, he is dropped 1lb for that, he is bound to improve for the better ground, and given the yards short history with the race then 25s is a little bit of an insult.
As said earlier, unlucky runners are worth close attention following from this race, and I have no doubt that there will be some unlucky stories here. Commitment looks destined for Ascot Handicap, but Cumani has already expressed slight doubts about the track, Ruacana needed ever yard of Chepstow galloping straight to win last time out, so don't be too surprised if this race housed something like a Melrose winner within the beaten horses.
1pt Win Maastricht @ 7s + 0.5pt WIn Bordoni @ 25s +
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It's not all Camelot, Camelot, Camelot here in British Racing, as Musselburgh hold a great card of their own today, feature being the £50,000 Edinburgh Gold Cup, and they haven't been let down with the quality of runners in recent years. Harris Tweed won this in 2010, with the likes of Corsica and Zuider Zee behind, 2011 was won by Eternal Heart, Namibian and Colour Vision behind him. Form of the race will definitely hold up as many of the unlucky losers, actually are just that given the nature of the track, tight right hand sharp track, and if you are looking at closers you need all the luck in the world here.
Reviewing the last two runnings just shows how much Mark Johnston targets this race with beaten runners like Corisca, Namibian and Colour Vision ending up Group winners, and his runners today are certainly worth closer attention.
It's hard to rate a horse who ran on his own, was did he benefit from running alone on better ground etc, but Maastricht has to be one of the likelier winners of this event. Dam a Gr3 1m1f US winner, and out of Tiger Hill, no surprise to see him come into his own when facing a test, ended 2yo days with a shd defeat in a Bath handicap, but that doesn't tell the story has he fended off challenges throughout, headed in last stride, 8 days after breaking his maiden tag at Beverley, as such a bit of a surprise to see him go off 25s at Newmarket. That Newmarket race does look solid though, Suraj is well thought of by Michael Bell when reading his blog notes, Handsome Man wasn't given a great ride behind Expense Claim at Salisbury by Ted Durcan, returned to winning form for Frankie here and is the best form any runner has to offer. Drawn in 6 Joe Fanning is certainly going to look to make it, and being on the pace is a big help here.
Another Johnston runners deserves a closer look and that is Bordoni. Out of a Oaks placed mare who later ran in US Turf Races, and sired by Bernardini, I wouldn't be too worried by defeats at Catterick and Chester on bottomless ground. His Kempton run behind Theturnofthesun who had the best possible trip is solid, he is dropped 1lb for that, he is bound to improve for the better ground, and given the yards short history with the race then 25s is a little bit of an insult.
As said earlier, unlucky runners are worth close attention following from this race, and I have no doubt that there will be some unlucky stories here. Commitment looks destined for Ascot Handicap, but Cumani has already expressed slight doubts about the track, Ruacana needed ever yard of Chepstow galloping straight to win last time out, so don't be too surprised if this race housed something like a Melrose winner within the beaten horses.
1pt Win Maastricht @ 7s + 0.5pt WIn Bordoni @ 25s +
Diamond Jubilee Handicap preview
Derby Day opens up with one of those tricky handicaps, so our handicap race expert Dan Kelly, @muffinmannhc is back with his preview.
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The opening race on Derby Day has seen a fair number of horses end up better than just a handicapper, and even though last years renewal was a little thin on the ground, it wouldn't surprise me if this years race housed another Dandino or Conduit. So far at this years Investec Derby Festival we've seen a fair few messy races, and worryingly this handicap has the potential to be also,
Pace is drawn in 10 in the form of Mister Music, other than him I'm struggling for a confirmed front runner, and when looking back at Grandeur race at Goodwood, that was a prerace doubt there also, however it needn't have been. Buick settled him well just off the pace with enough room to move as and when he wanted to, and today in stall 13 he has that option today. Granduer was an improving 2yo, doing everything but winning on debut, he went on to win a Brighton maiden comfortably. His 3yo campaign opened with a Sandown handicap on ground obviously softer than ideal, however at Goodwood he was very strong in the market to suugest that not only would he benefit fot that run, he would appreciate the return to quicker conditions and so it proved. I think he has the potential to be far better than 90, it's all about whether Buick gets a handy position from the off.
It's not often that I am drawn to a runner that took 5 attempts to break maiden, and late to the 3yo handicap scene, but I am looking forward to seeing Star Date here on handicap debut. Not as attractive as others due to connections, and the fact doesn't come here as unexposed as some, he has posted some good efforts, the best of which was his defeat at Chester. He was keen early, but considering he'd have found the ground too soft, he never gave up, and posted a very game effort. The Ripon race fell apart in front of him, but did show the ability to hand a sharp track, as he did again at Chester. Half Brother to Quest FOr Peace, he's yet to encounter his ideal conditions in his 5 runs to date, 10f+, Good to Firm ground, today he does and with a useful claimer taking a further 5lb off his back, he's worthy of close attention at 12s+.
1pt Win Grandeur @ 4s+ 0.5pt Win Star Date @ 12s+
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The opening race on Derby Day has seen a fair number of horses end up better than just a handicapper, and even though last years renewal was a little thin on the ground, it wouldn't surprise me if this years race housed another Dandino or Conduit. So far at this years Investec Derby Festival we've seen a fair few messy races, and worryingly this handicap has the potential to be also,
Pace is drawn in 10 in the form of Mister Music, other than him I'm struggling for a confirmed front runner, and when looking back at Grandeur race at Goodwood, that was a prerace doubt there also, however it needn't have been. Buick settled him well just off the pace with enough room to move as and when he wanted to, and today in stall 13 he has that option today. Granduer was an improving 2yo, doing everything but winning on debut, he went on to win a Brighton maiden comfortably. His 3yo campaign opened with a Sandown handicap on ground obviously softer than ideal, however at Goodwood he was very strong in the market to suugest that not only would he benefit fot that run, he would appreciate the return to quicker conditions and so it proved. I think he has the potential to be far better than 90, it's all about whether Buick gets a handy position from the off.
It's not often that I am drawn to a runner that took 5 attempts to break maiden, and late to the 3yo handicap scene, but I am looking forward to seeing Star Date here on handicap debut. Not as attractive as others due to connections, and the fact doesn't come here as unexposed as some, he has posted some good efforts, the best of which was his defeat at Chester. He was keen early, but considering he'd have found the ground too soft, he never gave up, and posted a very game effort. The Ripon race fell apart in front of him, but did show the ability to hand a sharp track, as he did again at Chester. Half Brother to Quest FOr Peace, he's yet to encounter his ideal conditions in his 5 runs to date, 10f+, Good to Firm ground, today he does and with a useful claimer taking a further 5lb off his back, he's worthy of close attention at 12s+.
1pt Win Grandeur @ 4s+ 0.5pt Win Star Date @ 12s+
Eagle Farm Cup preview
A late addition to tonight's ranks, a preview of the Eagle Farm Cup from a new follower in Manny Galouzis, @mannygalouzis. Hope you enjoy it!
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Formerly known as the P.J O'Shea Stakes, the Eagle Farm Cup is a Group 2 race run over 2200m at Eagle Farm racecourse in Brisbane. The winners list includes a few from this year's field as well as Group 1 winners like Glass Harmonium and even a few champions such as Rough Habit and Tulloch.
With the track already a Slow 7 and a further 20-30mm of rain expected, we look towards horses with a bit of wet form.
1. Scenic Shot
Winner of this race in both 2008 and 2009, this rising 10 year old seems to grow another leg when he comes to Brisbane. He loomed up as a serious threat last start in the Doomben Cup before just being out-paced in the closing 200m. Handles the wet fine and if he brings his best he's a live winning chance.
2. Triple Honour
His last win came in this race in 2010. Showed some sings of life early on this prep but has been only fair in his last two. Wouldn't shock if he came out and won but I can't have him.
3. Ginga Dude
Loves it wet and loves rolling along in front, which he might be able to do here. Won first up over the mile with Triple Honour and Scenic Shot running the placings. The 2200m shouldn't be a problem but I can really only entertain him as a place chance.
4. Booming (SCR)
His last win was in January 2011 and he's never been able to break his Aussie maiden. Ran a lacklustre 8th in the Doomben Cup and couldn't see him finishing much closer in this.
5. Rundle
Has been given a new lease on life since coming up north last year. An ex Lloyd Williams horse, he posted a few nice wins last prep, but in much lesser classes. Ran a good 5th in the Chairman's last start but is meeting a much better group of horses here. Not for mine.
6. Warrior Within
Ran a shocker in the Premier's Cup last week, he's 100/1 an entitled to be. No.
7. Shez Sinsational
Won the 2 mile Auckland Cup in March, then was freshened up for 6 weeks and won first up over 1400m. Went on to win will in the Hollindale but not a great showing in the Doomben Cup. Quite a strange prep in my opinion and don't know how much she is appreciating it. On her best she's a big chance but I couldn't step into the 3/1.
8. Lights of Heaven
Has found one just slightly better in her last two. Seemed to handle the Heavy track in the Hollindale ok. Deserves to be favourite but she certainly is short enough. Should be in the finish, but at even money she won't be carrying any of mine.
9. Fibrillation
A bit of an enigma this horse, but it seems to have found another level this prep. Kicking off well with 2 wins on the trot and then a good second in the Emancipation Stakes, she was running on very nicely to finish 5th last start in the Doomben Cup. Loves it wet and will be thereabouts. I think she represents good value at the 8/1 on offer.
Ginga Dude should take up the lead from barrier 1 with Triple Honour and Lights of Heaven not too far away. Shez Sinsational probably sits midfield with Fibrillation and the rest bring up the rear. Won't be a ridiculous amount of pace but it should be steady enough.
I've settled on Fibrillation. She's flying this prep and based on her last run I think the 2200m suits. Definitely the value in the race in my opinion. For second I've got Lights of Heaven. The class horse of the race, she will be hard to beat. Triple Honour in for third, he should get a lovely run in transit and is a nice place price at ~3/1. Shez Sinsational in for fourth, on her best she's in this up to her ears.
9. Fibrillation
8. Lights of Heaven
2. Triple Honour
7. Shez Sinsational
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Formerly known as the P.J O'Shea Stakes, the Eagle Farm Cup is a Group 2 race run over 2200m at Eagle Farm racecourse in Brisbane. The winners list includes a few from this year's field as well as Group 1 winners like Glass Harmonium and even a few champions such as Rough Habit and Tulloch.
With the track already a Slow 7 and a further 20-30mm of rain expected, we look towards horses with a bit of wet form.
1. Scenic Shot
Winner of this race in both 2008 and 2009, this rising 10 year old seems to grow another leg when he comes to Brisbane. He loomed up as a serious threat last start in the Doomben Cup before just being out-paced in the closing 200m. Handles the wet fine and if he brings his best he's a live winning chance.
2. Triple Honour
His last win came in this race in 2010. Showed some sings of life early on this prep but has been only fair in his last two. Wouldn't shock if he came out and won but I can't have him.
3. Ginga Dude
Loves it wet and loves rolling along in front, which he might be able to do here. Won first up over the mile with Triple Honour and Scenic Shot running the placings. The 2200m shouldn't be a problem but I can really only entertain him as a place chance.
4. Booming (SCR)
His last win was in January 2011 and he's never been able to break his Aussie maiden. Ran a lacklustre 8th in the Doomben Cup and couldn't see him finishing much closer in this.
5. Rundle
Has been given a new lease on life since coming up north last year. An ex Lloyd Williams horse, he posted a few nice wins last prep, but in much lesser classes. Ran a good 5th in the Chairman's last start but is meeting a much better group of horses here. Not for mine.
6. Warrior Within
Ran a shocker in the Premier's Cup last week, he's 100/1 an entitled to be. No.
7. Shez Sinsational
Won the 2 mile Auckland Cup in March, then was freshened up for 6 weeks and won first up over 1400m. Went on to win will in the Hollindale but not a great showing in the Doomben Cup. Quite a strange prep in my opinion and don't know how much she is appreciating it. On her best she's a big chance but I couldn't step into the 3/1.
8. Lights of Heaven
Has found one just slightly better in her last two. Seemed to handle the Heavy track in the Hollindale ok. Deserves to be favourite but she certainly is short enough. Should be in the finish, but at even money she won't be carrying any of mine.
9. Fibrillation
A bit of an enigma this horse, but it seems to have found another level this prep. Kicking off well with 2 wins on the trot and then a good second in the Emancipation Stakes, she was running on very nicely to finish 5th last start in the Doomben Cup. Loves it wet and will be thereabouts. I think she represents good value at the 8/1 on offer.
Ginga Dude should take up the lead from barrier 1 with Triple Honour and Lights of Heaven not too far away. Shez Sinsational probably sits midfield with Fibrillation and the rest bring up the rear. Won't be a ridiculous amount of pace but it should be steady enough.
I've settled on Fibrillation. She's flying this prep and based on her last run I think the 2200m suits. Definitely the value in the race in my opinion. For second I've got Lights of Heaven. The class horse of the race, she will be hard to beat. Triple Honour in for third, he should get a lovely run in transit and is a nice place price at ~3/1. Shez Sinsational in for fourth, on her best she's in this up to her ears.
9. Fibrillation
8. Lights of Heaven
2. Triple Honour
7. Shez Sinsational
Friday, 1 June 2012
Australian racing previews
A couple of races selected from the Saturday preview of @TheProfitsComAu. Visit their site for the full lineup.
Sandown Race 6
This is going to be an awesome race to watch. I’m excited to see so many horses I love in one race.
Let’s start with Chasse (second pick). Last four runs in this class has finished 2nd twice and within 1L in the other two. How he is $17 i’ll never know. He is big overs here. Is 2/2 from 5 at distance. Only concern is the 59kg but will enjoy the easy run from barrier 2.
Titch (value longshot) is super interesting at $51. Over from New Zealand with some good times to it’s name. Really enjoys a wet track and is claiming 3 to be off 57kg. Not the worst here and could surprise all and win.
We can’t say enough about Magnifique Soleil (top pick). This is his toughest task yet off 56.5kg after claims but barrier 5 certainly suits. This is a big step up in class and that’s why you are getting $5. Times all suggest he will be hard to beat. Only issue may be a very wet ground. Don’t overlook My Bentley. Ran on well last start and Newitt booked.
Mr O’Ceirin has been racing consistently and comes into this off 54kg once again. Has only placed once from 4 starts in this class but is 3 wins from 3 at this distance and will be there at the end.
We must also mention TurnItUp down 3kg from last run.. will go well but think 2-3 others will beat it home.
The most overrated horse in the race is Puissance De Lune. I have real questions if this horse that has only won 56K in prize money will handle the ground and extra distance in such a harder class race. It certainly doesn’t deserve to be $2.30. I’d think $4.50 would be more the price for it here after winning a BM-72 two back by 0.5L in the Bool carnival. These horses are MUCH better than previous company. Happy to take it on at this price.
Potential Tri/F4 Numbers – 1,2,4,5,7,9,12 if you don’t like backing Magnifique Soleil here in such
Confidence: 80%
Eagle Farm Race 5
This will be a great race to watch.
Divorces is the horse that just can’t get it done. Three of last 4 runs finishing within 0.5L. Up to a high recent weight of 58.5kg and a heavy track makes it hard to have her here.
Wealth Princess (top pick, best bet of day) won well last start but this is a much harder race. Up 1kg. Will be there at the end having only missed a place once. Don’t discount her at all with a 33.87 sectional over 1350 last start.
Bonnie Mac (next pick) has been putting down some impressive wins. Hard to not have her here but may find just one too good.
Upon This Rock has won 2 of last 3 races but when you look into the races, sectionals were not that brilliant. To be fair with last start, the race was run at a fast pace. Off 58.5kg here happy to be against.
Confidence: 85%
Sandown Race 6
This is going to be an awesome race to watch. I’m excited to see so many horses I love in one race.
Let’s start with Chasse (second pick). Last four runs in this class has finished 2nd twice and within 1L in the other two. How he is $17 i’ll never know. He is big overs here. Is 2/2 from 5 at distance. Only concern is the 59kg but will enjoy the easy run from barrier 2.
Titch (value longshot) is super interesting at $51. Over from New Zealand with some good times to it’s name. Really enjoys a wet track and is claiming 3 to be off 57kg. Not the worst here and could surprise all and win.
We can’t say enough about Magnifique Soleil (top pick). This is his toughest task yet off 56.5kg after claims but barrier 5 certainly suits. This is a big step up in class and that’s why you are getting $5. Times all suggest he will be hard to beat. Only issue may be a very wet ground. Don’t overlook My Bentley. Ran on well last start and Newitt booked.
Mr O’Ceirin has been racing consistently and comes into this off 54kg once again. Has only placed once from 4 starts in this class but is 3 wins from 3 at this distance and will be there at the end.
We must also mention TurnItUp down 3kg from last run.. will go well but think 2-3 others will beat it home.
The most overrated horse in the race is Puissance De Lune. I have real questions if this horse that has only won 56K in prize money will handle the ground and extra distance in such a harder class race. It certainly doesn’t deserve to be $2.30. I’d think $4.50 would be more the price for it here after winning a BM-72 two back by 0.5L in the Bool carnival. These horses are MUCH better than previous company. Happy to take it on at this price.
Potential Tri/F4 Numbers – 1,2,4,5,7,9,12 if you don’t like backing Magnifique Soleil here in such
Confidence: 80%
Eagle Farm Race 5
This will be a great race to watch.
Divorces is the horse that just can’t get it done. Three of last 4 runs finishing within 0.5L. Up to a high recent weight of 58.5kg and a heavy track makes it hard to have her here.
Wealth Princess (top pick, best bet of day) won well last start but this is a much harder race. Up 1kg. Will be there at the end having only missed a place once. Don’t discount her at all with a 33.87 sectional over 1350 last start.
Bonnie Mac (next pick) has been putting down some impressive wins. Hard to not have her here but may find just one too good.
Upon This Rock has won 2 of last 3 races but when you look into the races, sectionals were not that brilliant. To be fair with last start, the race was run at a fast pace. Off 58.5kg here happy to be against.
Confidence: 85%
Epsom Dash preview
The mad downhill sprint they call the Epsom Dash is one of Saturday's 'other' features at Epsom, Jack Milner returns to the blog with his analysis.
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The Epsom Dash
The Epsom Dash is another highlight of the Investec Derby Festival, with some of the best sprinters around going hell for leather down the straight five furlongs. Good, firm ground is ensured, so we could see a new track record broke, with some of the runners in the race already clocking some very quick times this season.
The race was won last year by Captain Dunne for Ted Easterby, The seven year old usually needs the run, and came on well for that on ground that wouldn’t have suited at Newbury. The third and sixth have come out and won since, and being dropped 2lb brings him to the mark he won the race on last year. He looks the pick of his string, ahead of Confessional who is officially 6lb well in official ratings, after a strong run behind Bated Breath at Haydock last time. The two look the pick of the northern plots, with horses also being sent down from Kevin Ryan in the form of York Glory and Courageous, but York Glory looked seriously rusty last time, and Courageous is running out of the handicap. He has Dickies Lad too, and interesting that Tom Queally is booked to ride. Unless he is burning up the gallops at home however, I can’t see him being a serious player. The north doesn’t look to have any stronger chances elsewhere with Long Awaited for David Barron winning last time out but the four year old looks inexperienced, and his best form is on softer ground. Vocational for Mark Johnston is 10lb out of the handicap, and although Silvestre De Sousa rides Epsom well, he has too much on his plate. Richard Fahey has Jamesway and Arctic Feeling, but neither looks appealing on current handicap ratings. Similarly the David Nicholls trained Fitz Flyer, who is 3lb lower on official ratings, as is the Hughie Morrison trained Sohraab, and looked lacklustre on his reappearance, similarly Living it Large for Ed De Giles.
We can scratch a few more off the shortlist by immediately taking out Diamond Charlie, and Stone of Folca look to be seriously outclassed in a race of this level, and can’t see them even placing in any particular scenario, Similarly with the Irish raider Oor Jock and he has Colm O’ Donoghue booked to steer. He is officially due to go up 2lb for a solid effort on his return at Dundalk, and has been running well in better company, but could be handicapped to the hilt. Taajub looks something of a dark horse, and should the money come, be interesting. Campaigned over the winter, he looked to suit the change to turf when running a good second over course and distance last time out.
The remaining players all look to have strong claims, but are plenty short enough in the market. Bear Behind, Catfish, Judge N’ Jury and Desert Law are all within the top ten in the market, and there are plenty reasons why. Bear Behind for Tom Dascombe. Beating Hamish McGonagall before losing in the stewards’ room, and then a narrow defeat to Ballesteros. That form has been franked and then some and he looks to have the progressive type of profile in a race like this. The Brian Meehan stable are flying at the moment, so Catfish has to be respected, similarly with Desert Law for Andrew Balding. Both should have come on for their initial runs, and have good form in the past on better ground. Judge N’ Jury looks progressive for Ron Harris, but seems to run better on flatter, less testing tracks.
Bear Behind 2pts EW @ 8/1 BOG
Captain Dunne 1pt EW @ 10/1 BOG
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner, @jjmsports
The Epsom Dash
The Epsom Dash is another highlight of the Investec Derby Festival, with some of the best sprinters around going hell for leather down the straight five furlongs. Good, firm ground is ensured, so we could see a new track record broke, with some of the runners in the race already clocking some very quick times this season.
The race was won last year by Captain Dunne for Ted Easterby, The seven year old usually needs the run, and came on well for that on ground that wouldn’t have suited at Newbury. The third and sixth have come out and won since, and being dropped 2lb brings him to the mark he won the race on last year. He looks the pick of his string, ahead of Confessional who is officially 6lb well in official ratings, after a strong run behind Bated Breath at Haydock last time. The two look the pick of the northern plots, with horses also being sent down from Kevin Ryan in the form of York Glory and Courageous, but York Glory looked seriously rusty last time, and Courageous is running out of the handicap. He has Dickies Lad too, and interesting that Tom Queally is booked to ride. Unless he is burning up the gallops at home however, I can’t see him being a serious player. The north doesn’t look to have any stronger chances elsewhere with Long Awaited for David Barron winning last time out but the four year old looks inexperienced, and his best form is on softer ground. Vocational for Mark Johnston is 10lb out of the handicap, and although Silvestre De Sousa rides Epsom well, he has too much on his plate. Richard Fahey has Jamesway and Arctic Feeling, but neither looks appealing on current handicap ratings. Similarly the David Nicholls trained Fitz Flyer, who is 3lb lower on official ratings, as is the Hughie Morrison trained Sohraab, and looked lacklustre on his reappearance, similarly Living it Large for Ed De Giles.
We can scratch a few more off the shortlist by immediately taking out Diamond Charlie, and Stone of Folca look to be seriously outclassed in a race of this level, and can’t see them even placing in any particular scenario, Similarly with the Irish raider Oor Jock and he has Colm O’ Donoghue booked to steer. He is officially due to go up 2lb for a solid effort on his return at Dundalk, and has been running well in better company, but could be handicapped to the hilt. Taajub looks something of a dark horse, and should the money come, be interesting. Campaigned over the winter, he looked to suit the change to turf when running a good second over course and distance last time out.
The remaining players all look to have strong claims, but are plenty short enough in the market. Bear Behind, Catfish, Judge N’ Jury and Desert Law are all within the top ten in the market, and there are plenty reasons why. Bear Behind for Tom Dascombe. Beating Hamish McGonagall before losing in the stewards’ room, and then a narrow defeat to Ballesteros. That form has been franked and then some and he looks to have the progressive type of profile in a race like this. The Brian Meehan stable are flying at the moment, so Catfish has to be respected, similarly with Desert Law for Andrew Balding. Both should have come on for their initial runs, and have good form in the past on better ground. Judge N’ Jury looks progressive for Ron Harris, but seems to run better on flatter, less testing tracks.
Bear Behind 2pts EW @ 8/1 BOG
Captain Dunne 1pt EW @ 10/1 BOG
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner, @jjmsports
Coronation Cup preview
Only fitting that we have a quality race called the Coronation Cup on Diamond Jubilee weekend. Regular contributor Jonathan da Silva, @creamontop, dons his Union Jack waistcoast and investigates this quality race.
Coronation Stakes
Wow this looks easy. 8/13 never has the Coronation been better named? Picked favourite now where's my lunch and why haven't I been on Sunday Forum for 2 weeks. Call me the Punter's Friend or a similar but snappier word. Here's your headline as well Sub' now buy me a vat of wine.
"St Nicholas Abbey To Get In The Habit"
Seriously he Müllered the 2nd favourite Beaten Up in Dubai. Facing stayers and some bits and pieces goodnight. Do I have to expand this to 500 words? Ok he won this last year and has run to RPR 123 or 124 6 times the next best has run to 121 yada. Tricky track but he beat Midday last year and ran to RPR 124. What more do you want?
Ummh Midday's jockey got chided for that ride slightly unfairly. Suggestion was St Nich' only looked the part once he hit the rising ground. That Midday lost every time she faced colts and geldings. The 3 lengths 3rd Clowance on good ground was beaten 9.25 the year before by Look Here - 19 lengths by Harbinger on Good at Newbury, Is that 124 rating justified?
Was it a bad day, maybe. Can he come down the hill badly and still win running to 120 RPR. Yes. However 8/13 yes? No.
St Nich's Arc run is the best by him on a course with a decent downhill - Longchamp's false straight is not that pronounced either. It maybe luck that his best form was at Donny, Chester, Meydan and Churchill. It may have nothing to do with medication his best was at Meydan and Churchill. That whilst his Arc run was good he was easily brushed aside by the other horses at the business end notwithstanding a 123 RPR - Shareta [2nd] not exactly franking the prominent runners form either.
As a mature horse he's been below his best at mildly undulating Curragh, Ascot, Newmarket and Longchamp (Foy). Not far but far enough to make me want to take him on given doubts about what he achieved last year. His last run I thought was unimpressive for a horse likely not far off fit after Dubai. He took a long time to start to reel in a stable-mate. I really am not sure what his win in this last year was worth either.
So to the opposition
Masked Marvel an easy winner of the Leger but slaughtered 3 times taking on better horses over the 12 furlong trip.
Quest for Peace could be a Cumani improver but needs to be. Drilled the thick end of 5 Lengths by Al Kazeem of whom more later.
Robin Hood owned by Coolmore so would be stealing from the rich to give to the rich. If this was a mile and they let him get a furlong in front he would not win. He's no Bullet Train or Windsor Castle.
Red Cadeaux was certainly the EW value when there were 3 places. Not short of speed like many horses who do well in the Melbourne Cup and arguably improving at age 6. Should find 1 too good but if St Nich is below par and Beaten Up boils over not forlorn at 12s.
Finally the horribly named Beaten Up. He has run only 4 races. Over boiled some might say in Dubai some might say he was nowhere near good enough. Yet the way he dispatched Al Kazeem at Newbury has left a mark. Al Kazeem absolutely dotted up in a Group 2 at Newmarket running the best fraction in each of the last 6 furlongs and was powerless as the Haggas beast blew him away. It may also be advisable to see how Beaten Up is in the paddock before betting him albeit maybe 50,000 other punters doing the same might cost you the price.
Bets
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As a gelding Beaten Up could easily have chased Group 2 prize money or a Group 1 abroad but Haggas, who is arguably the anti Clive Brittain, comes right back to a Group 1.
4/1 Beaten Up
Home run swing on a Red Cadeaux Beaten Up reverse (maybe a SNA/RC saver)
Look at Red Cadeaux to beat Masked Marvel in any match bets.
You can read more of Jon's writing on his blog, ThereWeSaidIt.
Coronation Stakes
Wow this looks easy. 8/13 never has the Coronation been better named? Picked favourite now where's my lunch and why haven't I been on Sunday Forum for 2 weeks. Call me the Punter's Friend or a similar but snappier word. Here's your headline as well Sub' now buy me a vat of wine.
"St Nicholas Abbey To Get In The Habit"
Seriously he Müllered the 2nd favourite Beaten Up in Dubai. Facing stayers and some bits and pieces goodnight. Do I have to expand this to 500 words? Ok he won this last year and has run to RPR 123 or 124 6 times the next best has run to 121 yada. Tricky track but he beat Midday last year and ran to RPR 124. What more do you want?
Ummh Midday's jockey got chided for that ride slightly unfairly. Suggestion was St Nich' only looked the part once he hit the rising ground. That Midday lost every time she faced colts and geldings. The 3 lengths 3rd Clowance on good ground was beaten 9.25 the year before by Look Here - 19 lengths by Harbinger on Good at Newbury, Is that 124 rating justified?
Was it a bad day, maybe. Can he come down the hill badly and still win running to 120 RPR. Yes. However 8/13 yes? No.
St Nich's Arc run is the best by him on a course with a decent downhill - Longchamp's false straight is not that pronounced either. It maybe luck that his best form was at Donny, Chester, Meydan and Churchill. It may have nothing to do with medication his best was at Meydan and Churchill. That whilst his Arc run was good he was easily brushed aside by the other horses at the business end notwithstanding a 123 RPR - Shareta [2nd] not exactly franking the prominent runners form either.
As a mature horse he's been below his best at mildly undulating Curragh, Ascot, Newmarket and Longchamp (Foy). Not far but far enough to make me want to take him on given doubts about what he achieved last year. His last run I thought was unimpressive for a horse likely not far off fit after Dubai. He took a long time to start to reel in a stable-mate. I really am not sure what his win in this last year was worth either.
So to the opposition
Masked Marvel an easy winner of the Leger but slaughtered 3 times taking on better horses over the 12 furlong trip.
Quest for Peace could be a Cumani improver but needs to be. Drilled the thick end of 5 Lengths by Al Kazeem of whom more later.
Robin Hood owned by Coolmore so would be stealing from the rich to give to the rich. If this was a mile and they let him get a furlong in front he would not win. He's no Bullet Train or Windsor Castle.
Red Cadeaux was certainly the EW value when there were 3 places. Not short of speed like many horses who do well in the Melbourne Cup and arguably improving at age 6. Should find 1 too good but if St Nich is below par and Beaten Up boils over not forlorn at 12s.
Finally the horribly named Beaten Up. He has run only 4 races. Over boiled some might say in Dubai some might say he was nowhere near good enough. Yet the way he dispatched Al Kazeem at Newbury has left a mark. Al Kazeem absolutely dotted up in a Group 2 at Newmarket running the best fraction in each of the last 6 furlongs and was powerless as the Haggas beast blew him away. It may also be advisable to see how Beaten Up is in the paddock before betting him albeit maybe 50,000 other punters doing the same might cost you the price.
Bets
====
As a gelding Beaten Up could easily have chased Group 2 prize money or a Group 1 abroad but Haggas, who is arguably the anti Clive Brittain, comes right back to a Group 1.
4/1 Beaten Up
Home run swing on a Red Cadeaux Beaten Up reverse (maybe a SNA/RC saver)
Look at Red Cadeaux to beat Masked Marvel in any match bets.
You can read more of Jon's writing on his blog, ThereWeSaidIt.
Queensland Oaks preview
It's not just Epsom hosting the quality racing this weekend, the blog will also have previews of the French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club), the Spanish Derby, features from Haydock and Musselburgh, plus from (sometimes) sunny Queensland, it's also Oaks Day. Making his debut on the blog is racing analyst Adrian Gray. Follow him on Twitter at @_AdrianGray
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The 2012 Queensland Oaks has shaped up to be one of the betting highlights of the Queensland Winter Carnival, with a forecast heavy track providing great value for numerous runners.
The deserved favourites are both international raiders from NZ, with Miss Artistic and Quintessential placing 1st and 3rd in the NZ Oaks. While both runners have proven themselves over the distance, tomorrow’s event was an afterthought after already having to peak once this preparation. Both have been working home well in their lead up races; however both will need to be 100% for the second time this year to achieve the feat last accomplished by Scarlett Lady. Big ask, but both are worthy contenders.
Next favourite is the very smart Angel Of Mercy. An extremely capable miler, beaten a head by four time Group One winner Mosheen over 1400 six starts back, the ability to stay mile and a half is a major query here. While she has a class edge on all of these horses, the expected genuine tempo will stretch her.
The next two lines of betting, Scorpio Queen and Dowager Queen, are both unbeaten on heavy tracks. Dowager Queen is by far the most experienced of the runners, having had 23 starts, and finished well back in the NZ Derby, as did next in line Poste Restante.
Invest, unlikely to run if the track stays heavy, took out the South Australian Oaks over 2000 metres two starts back and just held off the fast finishing Miss Artistic and Scorpio Queen last start, suggesting it has peaked already and the 2400 is beyond it.
Red Typhoon and Pretty Pins are the next two lines of betting and the last of the legitimate contenders. Red Typhoon was victorious over her own age and sex over 2500m last start, and Pretty Pins will benefit hugely by the wet track, genuine tempo, blinkers on first time and back to her normal midrace position of well back. Watch for her swooping late.
Rock Hit missed a start in the traditional lead up to the Oaks, the Roses, however bolted in by 7 lengths against much inferior opposition at Toowoomba last start. Vittoria is an honest stayer who finished fourth in the VRC Derby.
Love Excels could be the blowout runner. After only two very impressive starts, it could be on the up and is definitely one to include in the trifectas.
Angelus, Rocksan, Hula Lua, Crystalised, Anagold, Ablackahawka, Grab The Loot, Eliza Blues and Urban Rocker have all finished long way behind each of the previously mentioned runners in their lead up runs and would need to sprout wings to come close here.
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The 2012 Queensland Oaks has shaped up to be one of the betting highlights of the Queensland Winter Carnival, with a forecast heavy track providing great value for numerous runners.
The deserved favourites are both international raiders from NZ, with Miss Artistic and Quintessential placing 1st and 3rd in the NZ Oaks. While both runners have proven themselves over the distance, tomorrow’s event was an afterthought after already having to peak once this preparation. Both have been working home well in their lead up races; however both will need to be 100% for the second time this year to achieve the feat last accomplished by Scarlett Lady. Big ask, but both are worthy contenders.
Next favourite is the very smart Angel Of Mercy. An extremely capable miler, beaten a head by four time Group One winner Mosheen over 1400 six starts back, the ability to stay mile and a half is a major query here. While she has a class edge on all of these horses, the expected genuine tempo will stretch her.
The next two lines of betting, Scorpio Queen and Dowager Queen, are both unbeaten on heavy tracks. Dowager Queen is by far the most experienced of the runners, having had 23 starts, and finished well back in the NZ Derby, as did next in line Poste Restante.
Invest, unlikely to run if the track stays heavy, took out the South Australian Oaks over 2000 metres two starts back and just held off the fast finishing Miss Artistic and Scorpio Queen last start, suggesting it has peaked already and the 2400 is beyond it.
Red Typhoon and Pretty Pins are the next two lines of betting and the last of the legitimate contenders. Red Typhoon was victorious over her own age and sex over 2500m last start, and Pretty Pins will benefit hugely by the wet track, genuine tempo, blinkers on first time and back to her normal midrace position of well back. Watch for her swooping late.
Rock Hit missed a start in the traditional lead up to the Oaks, the Roses, however bolted in by 7 lengths against much inferior opposition at Toowoomba last start. Vittoria is an honest stayer who finished fourth in the VRC Derby.
Love Excels could be the blowout runner. After only two very impressive starts, it could be on the up and is definitely one to include in the trifectas.
Angelus, Rocksan, Hula Lua, Crystalised, Anagold, Ablackahawka, Grab The Loot, Eliza Blues and Urban Rocker have all finished long way behind each of the previously mentioned runners in their lead up runs and would need to sprout wings to come close here.
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