The Prince of Wales might have the star billing for Wednesday but the fillies' and mares' Group 2 is a quality contest. Not the easiest one to assess though, so in comes regular contributor Jon da Silva, @creamontop to dissect the formlines.
---------------------
Duke of Cambridge Stakes
Don't know about you but the decision to rename the Windsor Forest after her vapid grandson must be one of Her Majesty's worst. Despite not having sponsored races and hence decent race titles like "The Kentucky Derby presented by Yum Brands" Ascot does attract some of the best horses from around the world. Of course this race has not as it's worth 77 grand in a currency that's dipped 40% against the Yuan in five years and is a Group 2. No mares have penalties for winning Group 1s or 2s since late last year by the way.
Beatrice Aurora 25/1
Fifth in this last year and consistently Group 3 level. Has Frankie and finished last on reappearance at the tricky Epsom. Horse who has dropped 6lbs from her best official mark.
Chigun 10/3
The improver who has won four of her last six. Beat the useful La Collina in a Group 3 at the Curragh and represents Lady Cecil so handkerchiefs ready. Form via La Collina & Lily's Angel suggests she is in the ballpark with Duntle, the likely favourite. Form makes her seem marginally the best of the pretenders stepping up to Group 1 (Dank, Thistle Bird).
Dancewiththedevil 16/1
South African Group One winner over eight and 10 furlongs. Right there on ratings and soft ground might make her worth a poke. Beaten quite a few times and get the impression a stiff/soft 8f is a minimum at this level.
Dank 11/2
Narrowly beat Chigun on seasonal opener receiving three pounds but a bit behind on last year's form. Half sister to Eagle Mountain (by Rock of Gibraltar -> Dank by Dansili) who was effective 8 to 12 furlongs so might be interesting if she steps up from here.
Duntle 11/4
First past the post in the Group 1 Matron and sets the standard for others to hit. Quite a few close on collateral form but does have the G1 form without a penalty - arguably! Clearly the marker for the improvers and may still improve herself. Despite the Group 1 has only had seven runs so we cannot be too sure improvement or limits found yet.
Intense Pink 25/1
Has been running over sprints in lower class races. Listed winner who was competitive in a Group 3 on seasonal debut. Raced mostly on soft ground but has disappointed on better.
Lady's First 25/1
narrowly but decisively beaten by Dank, Chigun and Thistle Bird since last win over Dank. Also behind Duntle last year at Royal Ascot in the Sandringham. Not far behind but seemingly exposed.
Sarkiyla 9/1
Second to a horse in a Group 2 in France in May - beaten by the rather exposed Don Bosco. Can make a case she's come for the stiffer track and better ground. Six lengths behind Moonlight Cloud and Farhh in the Moulin. Her form is a procession of ran on, stayed on, nearest finish, rallied etc. Could be a Hound could be wanting a stiff mile and female competition.
Sweetnessandlight 66/1
Seemingly exposed as below group level. Did get within two lengths of the improving Dank once.
Thistle Bird 7/1
Not far behind Chigun last year. Beaten 3L on seasonal bow behind Dank and Chigun before winning a Group 3. Would not surprise if she was scraping paint with several.
Top Official marks have Chigun 114 Duntle 113 Dancewiththedevil 112 Dank 109 Sarkiyla/Thistle Bird 108
I don't see a lot between a lot of those since not all exposed despite this being a four year old plus race & think the market has the best two as first two in the betting at circa evens when dutched. Rain would make the former South African runner Dancewiththedevil a sporting each way bet and she may like the stiff track anyway. Could make an argument for Thistle Bird relative to Chigun on last year's form. Duntle solid and passed post first last four starts including a female Group 1. Dank is one I will be following whatever happens. But....
I would argue French raider Sarkiyla is value. Best form in France on top of the ground and often doing best work late so hopefully the straight mile will help. Sarkiyla will be my bet at around 9/1.
Tuesday, 18 June 2013
Prince of Wales Stakes preview
Just the solitary Group I race on Wednesday at Royal Ascot, offering last year's champion three year old the chance to restore his reputation. Taking up the reins again is David Haddrell, @davidhaddrell, who appears courtesy of Star Sports.
---------------------
Prince of Wales Stakes
Wednesday's feature race is the Prince of Wales Stakes run over 1m2f. This has seen some exciting finishes over the years with some varied winners and this year sees a real mix of runners representing different form. As usual, I'll skip through the field one by one....
1. Afsare - Not seen since just getting touched off in the Arlington Million last summer. He has his ideal conditions regarding the trip and ground but he's still only won a listed race so pitching him in at the top level on his first run of the year looks ambitious.
2. Al Kazeem - Roger Charlton's colt has proven a revelation in his last three runs, finally winning at the highest level when beating Camelot fair and square in his own back yard last time out at the Curragh. That form is the best on show here and he had hinted at being upto winning races like this before and with Frankel gone and Cirrus Des Aigles missing this, he has his chance to cement his place at the top of the tree for older middle distance horses. A worthy favourite.
3. Camelot - Last year's Derby winner has only won a farcical Irish group three since and the three year olds of last year looked a very moderate bunch. He has long been highly thought of at home but one wonders if that faith might be somewhat blinkered and I see no reason whatsoever why he will reverse the form with the favourite here.
4, Maxios - Won 7 of 15 races in France, finally landing a group one at Longchamp last month in soft ground. That's his best performance to date but that was a weak Group One, only beating Planteur 1/2L who would be a much bigger price for this. I always respect French raiders as I think they can be regularly underbet but I don't think this is the case here as his form overall is a bit off the principals in this race.
5. Miblish - Has a great record on the all-weather, winning a listed race well earlier this year at Kempton but has a hell of a lot on his plate here and was beat fair and square last time out behind Mukhadram.
6. Mukhadram - A lightly raced four year old and won a weak renewal of the Brigadier Gerard last month having only won a maiden prior to that but ran well in some hot handicaps and the Tercentenary stakes here last year. He's a type that could have more improvement to come and I wouldn't be ruling him out improving to take a hand here at 16/1.
7. Red Cadeaux - An international superstar who's won over £3 million in prizemoney including placing in a Melbourne Cup, a Dubai World Cup and winning in Hong Kong. 1m2f is properly the shortest trip he wants but he ran a massive race over the trip in Dubai and his best form would see him running close in this in my opinion. He would be very danger to dismiss.
8. Saint Baudolino - Ex Andre Fabre colt who had one run in Dubai running a big race behind Hunter's Light, that form is pretty worthless but his French form is a bit more interesting with places in the French Derby and the Grand Prix De Paris. They are top class international events but last years three year olds still have a lot to prove, especially ones from those sort of races and it's also a worry he returns in this after four months off.
9. Side Glance - Ran a decent race in Dubai behind Animal Kingdom and does seem to save his best for Ascot but he's been found out at this level too many times before and arguable that this trip stretches him.
10. Windsor Palace - Pacemaker for Camelot. No chance.
11. The Fugue - Beaten favourite in four races in her classic year but has always looked like a talented filly who could be up to winning an all sex race like this. However, I'd want her to be beating horses like Shareta and Zagora fairly comfortably to justify being 4th favourite for this race and she wouldn't be for me at the prices.
Conclusion
I think Al Kazeem is a good thing here and if he hit the 5/2 mark, I'd probably go into play but as it stands, he is probably just about the right price, I think the four behind him are all a touch on the short side though and there could be a bit of value playing Al Kazeem in forecasts with proven horse Red Cadeaux and the one with the most scope for improving at this level, Mukhadram.
I even think the latter is an EW bet in himself. He won the Brigadier Gerard in a very good time on his reappearance and he looks a late developing sort who has clearly always been though of as an older horse so the fact he comes from a weak age group doesn't worry me because he never competed at the top level because connections have always had one eye on the future. Given beyond the favourite, these lot are exposed or have a lot to find to be real top class horses, Mukhadram could improve enough to get involved.
Advice
Bet Al Kazeem win if he hits 5/2
Bet Mukhadram EW at 16/1
Play Al Kazeem in forecasts with Red Cadeaux and Mukhadram
---------------------
Prince of Wales Stakes
Wednesday's feature race is the Prince of Wales Stakes run over 1m2f. This has seen some exciting finishes over the years with some varied winners and this year sees a real mix of runners representing different form. As usual, I'll skip through the field one by one....
1. Afsare - Not seen since just getting touched off in the Arlington Million last summer. He has his ideal conditions regarding the trip and ground but he's still only won a listed race so pitching him in at the top level on his first run of the year looks ambitious.
2. Al Kazeem - Roger Charlton's colt has proven a revelation in his last three runs, finally winning at the highest level when beating Camelot fair and square in his own back yard last time out at the Curragh. That form is the best on show here and he had hinted at being upto winning races like this before and with Frankel gone and Cirrus Des Aigles missing this, he has his chance to cement his place at the top of the tree for older middle distance horses. A worthy favourite.
3. Camelot - Last year's Derby winner has only won a farcical Irish group three since and the three year olds of last year looked a very moderate bunch. He has long been highly thought of at home but one wonders if that faith might be somewhat blinkered and I see no reason whatsoever why he will reverse the form with the favourite here.
4, Maxios - Won 7 of 15 races in France, finally landing a group one at Longchamp last month in soft ground. That's his best performance to date but that was a weak Group One, only beating Planteur 1/2L who would be a much bigger price for this. I always respect French raiders as I think they can be regularly underbet but I don't think this is the case here as his form overall is a bit off the principals in this race.
5. Miblish - Has a great record on the all-weather, winning a listed race well earlier this year at Kempton but has a hell of a lot on his plate here and was beat fair and square last time out behind Mukhadram.
6. Mukhadram - A lightly raced four year old and won a weak renewal of the Brigadier Gerard last month having only won a maiden prior to that but ran well in some hot handicaps and the Tercentenary stakes here last year. He's a type that could have more improvement to come and I wouldn't be ruling him out improving to take a hand here at 16/1.
7. Red Cadeaux - An international superstar who's won over £3 million in prizemoney including placing in a Melbourne Cup, a Dubai World Cup and winning in Hong Kong. 1m2f is properly the shortest trip he wants but he ran a massive race over the trip in Dubai and his best form would see him running close in this in my opinion. He would be very danger to dismiss.
8. Saint Baudolino - Ex Andre Fabre colt who had one run in Dubai running a big race behind Hunter's Light, that form is pretty worthless but his French form is a bit more interesting with places in the French Derby and the Grand Prix De Paris. They are top class international events but last years three year olds still have a lot to prove, especially ones from those sort of races and it's also a worry he returns in this after four months off.
9. Side Glance - Ran a decent race in Dubai behind Animal Kingdom and does seem to save his best for Ascot but he's been found out at this level too many times before and arguable that this trip stretches him.
10. Windsor Palace - Pacemaker for Camelot. No chance.
11. The Fugue - Beaten favourite in four races in her classic year but has always looked like a talented filly who could be up to winning an all sex race like this. However, I'd want her to be beating horses like Shareta and Zagora fairly comfortably to justify being 4th favourite for this race and she wouldn't be for me at the prices.
Conclusion
I think Al Kazeem is a good thing here and if he hit the 5/2 mark, I'd probably go into play but as it stands, he is probably just about the right price, I think the four behind him are all a touch on the short side though and there could be a bit of value playing Al Kazeem in forecasts with proven horse Red Cadeaux and the one with the most scope for improving at this level, Mukhadram.
I even think the latter is an EW bet in himself. He won the Brigadier Gerard in a very good time on his reappearance and he looks a late developing sort who has clearly always been though of as an older horse so the fact he comes from a weak age group doesn't worry me because he never competed at the top level because connections have always had one eye on the future. Given beyond the favourite, these lot are exposed or have a lot to find to be real top class horses, Mukhadram could improve enough to get involved.
Advice
Bet Al Kazeem win if he hits 5/2
Bet Mukhadram EW at 16/1
Play Al Kazeem in forecasts with Red Cadeaux and Mukhadram
Queen Anne Stakes preview
Last but not least for day one is the opening race on the card, the Queen Anne Stakes. This is the race which made everyone's jaw drop last year when the mighty Frankel simply destroyed the field, blowing the Frankel v Black Caviar argument out of the water. I was with an Aussie tour group in the Furlong Club last year and everyone was speechless when he careered away.
Onto this year's race.... I did have another preview lined up but I believe that writer has since deposited his laptop in the nearest river after being beset by virus woes. However you won't lose anything by reading the late replacement. William Kedjanyi, @keejayOV, writes an excellent blog covering several sports and this is an excellent preview of a very alluring race. Read more of his work here.
----------------------
Royal Ascot 2013 - Queen Anne Stakes
2.30 Ascot
Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £198,485
Aljamaaheer: Built on promising, albeit slightly disappointing return when beaten a head in listed company, when third in Lockinge Stakes (well ahead of Declaration of War, behind Sovereign Debt) latest (keen most of the way despite good pace) and made solid headway; realistic place claims at big price and worth consideration.
Animal Kingdom: 2011 Kentucky Derby winner who has gone onto good things since despite serious problems; Underlined himself as one of the world’s best horses with thoroughly dominant Dubai World Cup win (10f, synthetic surface) after improving greatly for return in Dirt Grade 1, but goes on any surface has his tremendous Breeders’ Cup Mile effort showed, flying late after troubled passage for second to Wise Dan after just one run that year; That took his record to 0-2 over a mile but fail to see how this trip bothers him and stays further, so stamina will be no trouble or the stiff course, and been stationed here for good while so fitness/stamina hopefully assured; The one to beat in no uncertain terms assuming ground stays good.
Chil The Kite: Steadily improving over past two seasons, winning listed event in France last year, and progression continued with third in bet365 Mile and then fourth in Lockinge; Place a possibility once again.
Declaration Of War: Rich promise before move to Ballydoyle in France, and shown no end of promise in three wins since stable debut fourth in Curragh Group 3, winning twice at 10f in good style; Reappearance win (1m, second win on ground worse than good); Sent off a hot favourite for the Lockinge after sustained gamble but could never get going and beaten 11 & 1/2 lengths in fifth, behind Sovereign Debt, Aljamaaheer and Chil The Kite; Looks vulnerable again.
Gabrial: Looked as good as he’s ever been when landing listed event on return but looked awkward both starts since; Might not have lasted 10 furlongs at Chester or enjoyed Epsom but on both starts, didn’t look good enough to trouble Group 1 horses on either occasion and readily passed over.
Gregorian: Mixed between top level and conditions events since his staying on fifth in French Guineas, although he was close third here in St James’s Palace and in second in Prix Jean Prat last year; Did the job well when winning Group 3 at Epsom lately and of potential interest here given how well he’s performed at Group 1 level, but others make more appeal.
Libranno: Benefit of a superb Fallon ride when taking the Park Stakes but since been exposed as needing 7 furlongs and also below Group 1 class based on fourth in Bet365 Mile behind Trumpet Major on seasonal reappearance.
Monsieur Chevalier: One time crack sprinter who’s lost that form and is outclassed.
Penitent: Capable of running up to high form and numerous Group 1 placed efforts; Best of the rest behind Gregorian when giving 5lbs to that one at Epsom latest, but then well beaten in the Lockinge latest and others preferred.
Sovereign Debt: Rapidly progressive last year (got blocked on several occasions in last year’s Jersey) and found his level at Group 3s, although ran above himself (possibly aided by fast pace) when second in Lockinge Stakes.
Trade Storm: Showed super turn of foot to land handicap in Dubai off 104 and Zabeel Mile before fourth in the Dubai Duty Free, coming late although birds had flown upfront; Similar performance today would put him there or thereabouts and can’t be underestimated.
Trumpet Major: Successful 2 year old campaign and won couple of Group 3’s last year, but stuffed at top level regularly and same story in Lockinge after return Group 2 win and best to look elsewhere.
Elusive Kate: Fantastic consistency at the top table of female milling last year, great comeback in Falmouth on heavy ground before dictating terms from front to win Prix Rothschild; Faced top open company twice last year and was third to Excelebration on both occasions in high quality races, form as good as any bought here; Strong each/way chance.
VERDICT: Assuming that the ground stays decent, a truly international Royal Meeting can get off to a truly international start with Dubai World Cup winner ANIMAL KINGDOM, who looks a class ahead of these on his best form, which many will count as his recent Dubai success, although his Breeders’ Cup Mile second (coming after a troubled run and on just his second start of an injury riddled year) also makes him the horse to beat. ELUSIVE KATE, twice third to Excelebration in top straight mile contests last year, is capable of being second best and merits each/way support especially with current second favourite Declaration of War looking very vulnerable, opening up the place market to his Lockinge superiors Chil the Kite, Aljamaaheer and Sovereign Debt.
Advice: 11 pts win Animal Kingdom (Evs general), 1 pt each way Elusive Kate (7/1 Bet365)
Onto this year's race.... I did have another preview lined up but I believe that writer has since deposited his laptop in the nearest river after being beset by virus woes. However you won't lose anything by reading the late replacement. William Kedjanyi, @keejayOV, writes an excellent blog covering several sports and this is an excellent preview of a very alluring race. Read more of his work here.
----------------------
Royal Ascot 2013 - Queen Anne Stakes
2.30 Ascot
Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £198,485
Aljamaaheer: Built on promising, albeit slightly disappointing return when beaten a head in listed company, when third in Lockinge Stakes (well ahead of Declaration of War, behind Sovereign Debt) latest (keen most of the way despite good pace) and made solid headway; realistic place claims at big price and worth consideration.
Animal Kingdom: 2011 Kentucky Derby winner who has gone onto good things since despite serious problems; Underlined himself as one of the world’s best horses with thoroughly dominant Dubai World Cup win (10f, synthetic surface) after improving greatly for return in Dirt Grade 1, but goes on any surface has his tremendous Breeders’ Cup Mile effort showed, flying late after troubled passage for second to Wise Dan after just one run that year; That took his record to 0-2 over a mile but fail to see how this trip bothers him and stays further, so stamina will be no trouble or the stiff course, and been stationed here for good while so fitness/stamina hopefully assured; The one to beat in no uncertain terms assuming ground stays good.
Chil The Kite: Steadily improving over past two seasons, winning listed event in France last year, and progression continued with third in bet365 Mile and then fourth in Lockinge; Place a possibility once again.
Declaration Of War: Rich promise before move to Ballydoyle in France, and shown no end of promise in three wins since stable debut fourth in Curragh Group 3, winning twice at 10f in good style; Reappearance win (1m, second win on ground worse than good); Sent off a hot favourite for the Lockinge after sustained gamble but could never get going and beaten 11 & 1/2 lengths in fifth, behind Sovereign Debt, Aljamaaheer and Chil The Kite; Looks vulnerable again.
Gabrial: Looked as good as he’s ever been when landing listed event on return but looked awkward both starts since; Might not have lasted 10 furlongs at Chester or enjoyed Epsom but on both starts, didn’t look good enough to trouble Group 1 horses on either occasion and readily passed over.
Gregorian: Mixed between top level and conditions events since his staying on fifth in French Guineas, although he was close third here in St James’s Palace and in second in Prix Jean Prat last year; Did the job well when winning Group 3 at Epsom lately and of potential interest here given how well he’s performed at Group 1 level, but others make more appeal.
Libranno: Benefit of a superb Fallon ride when taking the Park Stakes but since been exposed as needing 7 furlongs and also below Group 1 class based on fourth in Bet365 Mile behind Trumpet Major on seasonal reappearance.
Monsieur Chevalier: One time crack sprinter who’s lost that form and is outclassed.
Penitent: Capable of running up to high form and numerous Group 1 placed efforts; Best of the rest behind Gregorian when giving 5lbs to that one at Epsom latest, but then well beaten in the Lockinge latest and others preferred.
Sovereign Debt: Rapidly progressive last year (got blocked on several occasions in last year’s Jersey) and found his level at Group 3s, although ran above himself (possibly aided by fast pace) when second in Lockinge Stakes.
Trade Storm: Showed super turn of foot to land handicap in Dubai off 104 and Zabeel Mile before fourth in the Dubai Duty Free, coming late although birds had flown upfront; Similar performance today would put him there or thereabouts and can’t be underestimated.
Trumpet Major: Successful 2 year old campaign and won couple of Group 3’s last year, but stuffed at top level regularly and same story in Lockinge after return Group 2 win and best to look elsewhere.
Elusive Kate: Fantastic consistency at the top table of female milling last year, great comeback in Falmouth on heavy ground before dictating terms from front to win Prix Rothschild; Faced top open company twice last year and was third to Excelebration on both occasions in high quality races, form as good as any bought here; Strong each/way chance.
VERDICT: Assuming that the ground stays decent, a truly international Royal Meeting can get off to a truly international start with Dubai World Cup winner ANIMAL KINGDOM, who looks a class ahead of these on his best form, which many will count as his recent Dubai success, although his Breeders’ Cup Mile second (coming after a troubled run and on just his second start of an injury riddled year) also makes him the horse to beat. ELUSIVE KATE, twice third to Excelebration in top straight mile contests last year, is capable of being second best and merits each/way support especially with current second favourite Declaration of War looking very vulnerable, opening up the place market to his Lockinge superiors Chil the Kite, Aljamaaheer and Sovereign Debt.
Advice: 11 pts win Animal Kingdom (Evs general), 1 pt each way Elusive Kate (7/1 Bet365)
Coventry Stakes preview
Top class two-year-old racing sends my heart racing. Tricky formlines to compare, huge hype from certain stables and exciting colts still learning their trade. This might be my only chance to preview a race during Royal Ascot, so let's get to it!
-------------------
The Coventry Stakes (Group II)
Bahamian Heights - one of the best traits the master Sir Henry Cecil had was the ability to give average racehorses confidence by letting them win gallops and placing them in the right races. There are plenty of 2yo races this week, surely there was a more suitable target in there somewhere?? 250 on Betfair for a reason!
Championship - oozes class. Hannon and Hughes - tick. Exceed and Excel progeny down the straight - tick. Hughes stepping off three-time winning stablemate to ride this one - tick. Impressive on debut after striking plenty of trouble - tick. Drawn better than the favourite - tick.
Dubawi Fun - Ismail Mohammed looks like a decent trainer to follow but horses don't go from a Fibresand win on debut to winning the best 2yo race of the (early) season. Poorly placed, might have been a chance at decent odds in one of the juvenile races.
Jallota - has improved with experience, was only beaten a bit over a length on debut against Championship but looks likely to make his mark over more ground.
Lanark - the market tends to be a very good guide to Mark Johnston horses. Decent win at Goodwood last start leading throughout but two runs so far haven't shown much to suggest he can win a Group II just yet.
Mawfoor - ran good time and showed some spirit when headed to win at Haydock last week. The runner-up, Safety Check from the Saeed Bin Suroor stable looks quite handy but has no future entries to go on for how highly the stable rates him. Brian Meehan can have a decent juvenile occasionally, this one should not get under your guard.
Parbold - nice win on debut at York in a formline which is hard to match up against the 'southerners'. Looked like he still had plenty to learn in that win and trainer is talking him up. Drawn stands side, looks like he'd be a few lengths better if he can be smothered up until late. Decent chance becomes solid chance if stands rail is favoured by that time of day.
Riverboat Springs - impressive winner at Bath on debut then hated the goat track known as Epsom before rattling home to claim second behind Thunder Strike in the Woodcote, breaking 23s for the last 2f by my hand-timing, the same time as Dash winner Duke of Firenze, who rattled home. This course should be right up his alley and a huge tick to have William Buick on board.
Rogue Wave - owners looking for an excuse for free tickets I assume, enjoy your day out.
Rosso Corsa - the third Mick Channon runner, doubt it has much hope but has Kiwi super jockey James McDonald aboard. This kid can really ride, hope he gets a chance to pilot something with a remote chance this week so he can strut his stuff.
Sir John Hawkins - the talking horse of the week, heavily supported in last 24 hours and has Ryan Moore aboard rather than O'Brien jnr. Impeccably bred colt, honestly think this is the better one from Ballydoyle. Drawn 10, probably gets the chance to go either side from there.
Stubbs - drawn the inside rail which could be perfectly fine, but is more likely to be a negative than a positive. Two easy wins in Ireland but the last was in a field of four in a listed race at Naas, just how tested was he? (Note if he wins this, get on Sacha Park in the last!). Favourite but can't have him at the odds.
Thrtypointstothree - 1000 on Betfair and that's probably unders. Assume he's in this race because he wouldn't make the cut for the Windsor Castle!
Thunder Strike - three from three and an impressive winner at Epsom on Derby Day. Handled the track better than most that day but also had edge in class and experience. Hannon second string on jockey bookings but going for four on the bounce and being served up at a much better price. Don't let me talk you out of him.
Wahaab - won easily at Goodwood on debut (in slower time than Lanark who raced on a poorer surface the week before), looked a bit green but kept on well. He'd need to be special even to beat his stablemates in this.
War Command - third of the Ballydoyle triumvirate, won over 7f on debut at Leopardstown in a very slow time on dry track, taking ages to get to the front. Don't see him being competitive here.
SELECTIONS:
Hard to split some of these so I'll be having a crack at the exotics as well.
1. Riverboat Springs
2. Championship
3. Parbold
4. Sir John Hawkins
5. Mawfoor
Trifecta ticket to look something like:
2,8 x 2,6,7,8,11 x 2,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,14,15 (probably not as wide, depends if any bias appears)
-------------------
The Coventry Stakes (Group II)
Bahamian Heights - one of the best traits the master Sir Henry Cecil had was the ability to give average racehorses confidence by letting them win gallops and placing them in the right races. There are plenty of 2yo races this week, surely there was a more suitable target in there somewhere?? 250 on Betfair for a reason!
Championship - oozes class. Hannon and Hughes - tick. Exceed and Excel progeny down the straight - tick. Hughes stepping off three-time winning stablemate to ride this one - tick. Impressive on debut after striking plenty of trouble - tick. Drawn better than the favourite - tick.
Dubawi Fun - Ismail Mohammed looks like a decent trainer to follow but horses don't go from a Fibresand win on debut to winning the best 2yo race of the (early) season. Poorly placed, might have been a chance at decent odds in one of the juvenile races.
Jallota - has improved with experience, was only beaten a bit over a length on debut against Championship but looks likely to make his mark over more ground.
Lanark - the market tends to be a very good guide to Mark Johnston horses. Decent win at Goodwood last start leading throughout but two runs so far haven't shown much to suggest he can win a Group II just yet.
Mawfoor - ran good time and showed some spirit when headed to win at Haydock last week. The runner-up, Safety Check from the Saeed Bin Suroor stable looks quite handy but has no future entries to go on for how highly the stable rates him. Brian Meehan can have a decent juvenile occasionally, this one should not get under your guard.
Parbold - nice win on debut at York in a formline which is hard to match up against the 'southerners'. Looked like he still had plenty to learn in that win and trainer is talking him up. Drawn stands side, looks like he'd be a few lengths better if he can be smothered up until late. Decent chance becomes solid chance if stands rail is favoured by that time of day.
Riverboat Springs - impressive winner at Bath on debut then hated the goat track known as Epsom before rattling home to claim second behind Thunder Strike in the Woodcote, breaking 23s for the last 2f by my hand-timing, the same time as Dash winner Duke of Firenze, who rattled home. This course should be right up his alley and a huge tick to have William Buick on board.
Rogue Wave - owners looking for an excuse for free tickets I assume, enjoy your day out.
Rosso Corsa - the third Mick Channon runner, doubt it has much hope but has Kiwi super jockey James McDonald aboard. This kid can really ride, hope he gets a chance to pilot something with a remote chance this week so he can strut his stuff.
Sir John Hawkins - the talking horse of the week, heavily supported in last 24 hours and has Ryan Moore aboard rather than O'Brien jnr. Impeccably bred colt, honestly think this is the better one from Ballydoyle. Drawn 10, probably gets the chance to go either side from there.
Stubbs - drawn the inside rail which could be perfectly fine, but is more likely to be a negative than a positive. Two easy wins in Ireland but the last was in a field of four in a listed race at Naas, just how tested was he? (Note if he wins this, get on Sacha Park in the last!). Favourite but can't have him at the odds.
Thrtypointstothree - 1000 on Betfair and that's probably unders. Assume he's in this race because he wouldn't make the cut for the Windsor Castle!
Thunder Strike - three from three and an impressive winner at Epsom on Derby Day. Handled the track better than most that day but also had edge in class and experience. Hannon second string on jockey bookings but going for four on the bounce and being served up at a much better price. Don't let me talk you out of him.
Wahaab - won easily at Goodwood on debut (in slower time than Lanark who raced on a poorer surface the week before), looked a bit green but kept on well. He'd need to be special even to beat his stablemates in this.
War Command - third of the Ballydoyle triumvirate, won over 7f on debut at Leopardstown in a very slow time on dry track, taking ages to get to the front. Don't see him being competitive here.
SELECTIONS:
Hard to split some of these so I'll be having a crack at the exotics as well.
1. Riverboat Springs
2. Championship
3. Parbold
4. Sir John Hawkins
5. Mawfoor
Trifecta ticket to look something like:
2,8 x 2,6,7,8,11 x 2,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,14,15 (probably not as wide, depends if any bias appears)
Monday, 17 June 2013
Windsor Castle Stakes preview
28 runners down the wide open Ascot straight with most of them having no more than two career starts.... oh yes, it's the Windsor Castle Stakes which has thrown up double-figure odds winners four times in the past seven years (14/1, 20/1, 33/1 and 100/1). Bring it on I say!
Delving deep into the form for this conundrum is TheYoungRacegoer, Calum Madell. Read his blog, follow him on Twitter @calummadell ....
----------------------
Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)
An absolute minefield of a race with 28 runners taking part and with a number of runners that are desperately tough to judge based on a minimal amount of runs.
Heading the market is the Richard Hannon trained Anticipated, looking to extend his unbeaten record to three with a win here. He hasn’t been seen since May 1st though when beating the smart Justice Day over C&D in nice style, his trainer stating he’d give him time as he hadn’t come into his coat.
It is worth noting too that around that time, jockey Richard Hughes admitted they had very little in 5f juveniles this season but he was arguably the best they had, meaning he has to be respected, especially with possible improvement to come. He would have to be the first winner of the race ever for the trainer with is remarkable considering his record here.
Hannon also runs three others, with Steventon Star ridden by Frankie Dettori being the shortest in the market. He did well at the start of the season but flopped last time in the National Stakes at Sandown, meaning he has a good bit to prove now. The one I like the most of his quartet is Sacha Park who is still a maiden but has simply bumped into two of the top juveniles so far this season in Saayerr and Stubbs, both who will go well in their respective races this week. Beau Nash was also unlucky to run in behind a couple of smart ones but got off the mark last time in a weak race. He may not be good enough to be challenging for this though, especially when he probably needs further very soon.
Also coming in with a poor record in the race are the Irish trainers who have failed to win it for 22 years though they sometimes don’t target this race. Aidan O’Brien runs two and they are led by Fountain Of Youth, the fifth foal of the outstanding Attraction (Queen Mary winner). The step down to 5f seemed to suit last time when getting off the mark by 10 lengths but that was a desperately average race and others convince more. Wilshire Boulevard meanwhile got off the mark just four days ago but now drops down in trip to the minimum, though others are more solid for me. Dylanbaru ran third for Tommy Stack last year and he’s looking to go two better this time with outsider Treadstone who could improve for better ground but has been put in his place so far, the latest albeit by Coventry favourite Stubbs.
The other fascinating raider sees the return of Wesley Ward, who took this race in 2009 with Strike The Tiger, the first leg of a famous double and his runners must always be respected. He runs Ogermeister whose pedigree is all dirt but he’s already seen to have taken to turf and won the only maiden race for two-year-olds in New York this season. The trainer has had a number of attempts since 2009, including two in this race and though one ran with a lot of credit, neither has placed and I’m going to look elsewhere again.
Now to the home team, that was going to be led by Fine ‘N Dandy but he’s a non-runner now, but up there at the head of the market is my first fancy SLEEPER KING. He first caught the eye in a York maiden that regularly works out well over 6f where he showed plenty of speed to suggest a drop back in trip would suit. He duly took it in his stride in a conditions race at Musselburgh where he beat Justice Day who has a number of other form ties with the field, including the favourite. He looked to be a good deal better than the margin of victory suggests and connections have a live chance of taking the race for a second year running.
Haikbidiac has mixed it with a number of these but has come up short and looks better suited by 6f while Ben Hall won a very average race last time at Haydock and needs to improve significantly. Andhesontherun bumped into a very good one last time in Queen Mary bound Rizeena but seems to want further already while it wouldn’t surprise me if Supplicant ran a big race after running really well again in a smart race at Beverley. The winner that day is a good horse of Richard Hannon’s but the runner-up caught the eye the most and it just so happens that MY CATCH takes his chance here. He must have been showing a lot at home to have been put in the deep end like that on debut and once again to run here on his second start, but he was ridden with a lot of confidence, greenness probably got the better of him on an unorthodox track. That means improvement here looks likely and he is big contender for connections of the 2011 winner Frederick Engels.
Of the rest, I thought Fiftyshadesofgrey was possibly worth a small e/w as he showed promise on debut and this race is no stranger to big priced winners, including a 100/1 shot with Flashmans Papers in 2008. Peterkin and Extortionist have bags of speed and with it place claims and Tableforten is a little big considering he has done nothing wrong in bumping into the potentially very good Eccleston, who should take all the beating in the Norfolk, first time out and then making no mistake in winning over 6f last time.
Advice – Sleeper King 1pt e/w @14/1 generally
My Catch 1pt e/w @20/1 Stan James
Delving deep into the form for this conundrum is TheYoungRacegoer, Calum Madell. Read his blog, follow him on Twitter @calummadell ....
----------------------
Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)
An absolute minefield of a race with 28 runners taking part and with a number of runners that are desperately tough to judge based on a minimal amount of runs.
Heading the market is the Richard Hannon trained Anticipated, looking to extend his unbeaten record to three with a win here. He hasn’t been seen since May 1st though when beating the smart Justice Day over C&D in nice style, his trainer stating he’d give him time as he hadn’t come into his coat.
It is worth noting too that around that time, jockey Richard Hughes admitted they had very little in 5f juveniles this season but he was arguably the best they had, meaning he has to be respected, especially with possible improvement to come. He would have to be the first winner of the race ever for the trainer with is remarkable considering his record here.
Hannon also runs three others, with Steventon Star ridden by Frankie Dettori being the shortest in the market. He did well at the start of the season but flopped last time in the National Stakes at Sandown, meaning he has a good bit to prove now. The one I like the most of his quartet is Sacha Park who is still a maiden but has simply bumped into two of the top juveniles so far this season in Saayerr and Stubbs, both who will go well in their respective races this week. Beau Nash was also unlucky to run in behind a couple of smart ones but got off the mark last time in a weak race. He may not be good enough to be challenging for this though, especially when he probably needs further very soon.
Also coming in with a poor record in the race are the Irish trainers who have failed to win it for 22 years though they sometimes don’t target this race. Aidan O’Brien runs two and they are led by Fountain Of Youth, the fifth foal of the outstanding Attraction (Queen Mary winner). The step down to 5f seemed to suit last time when getting off the mark by 10 lengths but that was a desperately average race and others convince more. Wilshire Boulevard meanwhile got off the mark just four days ago but now drops down in trip to the minimum, though others are more solid for me. Dylanbaru ran third for Tommy Stack last year and he’s looking to go two better this time with outsider Treadstone who could improve for better ground but has been put in his place so far, the latest albeit by Coventry favourite Stubbs.
The other fascinating raider sees the return of Wesley Ward, who took this race in 2009 with Strike The Tiger, the first leg of a famous double and his runners must always be respected. He runs Ogermeister whose pedigree is all dirt but he’s already seen to have taken to turf and won the only maiden race for two-year-olds in New York this season. The trainer has had a number of attempts since 2009, including two in this race and though one ran with a lot of credit, neither has placed and I’m going to look elsewhere again.
Now to the home team, that was going to be led by Fine ‘N Dandy but he’s a non-runner now, but up there at the head of the market is my first fancy SLEEPER KING. He first caught the eye in a York maiden that regularly works out well over 6f where he showed plenty of speed to suggest a drop back in trip would suit. He duly took it in his stride in a conditions race at Musselburgh where he beat Justice Day who has a number of other form ties with the field, including the favourite. He looked to be a good deal better than the margin of victory suggests and connections have a live chance of taking the race for a second year running.
Haikbidiac has mixed it with a number of these but has come up short and looks better suited by 6f while Ben Hall won a very average race last time at Haydock and needs to improve significantly. Andhesontherun bumped into a very good one last time in Queen Mary bound Rizeena but seems to want further already while it wouldn’t surprise me if Supplicant ran a big race after running really well again in a smart race at Beverley. The winner that day is a good horse of Richard Hannon’s but the runner-up caught the eye the most and it just so happens that MY CATCH takes his chance here. He must have been showing a lot at home to have been put in the deep end like that on debut and once again to run here on his second start, but he was ridden with a lot of confidence, greenness probably got the better of him on an unorthodox track. That means improvement here looks likely and he is big contender for connections of the 2011 winner Frederick Engels.
Of the rest, I thought Fiftyshadesofgrey was possibly worth a small e/w as he showed promise on debut and this race is no stranger to big priced winners, including a 100/1 shot with Flashmans Papers in 2008. Peterkin and Extortionist have bags of speed and with it place claims and Tableforten is a little big considering he has done nothing wrong in bumping into the potentially very good Eccleston, who should take all the beating in the Norfolk, first time out and then making no mistake in winning over 6f last time.
Advice – Sleeper King 1pt e/w @14/1 generally
My Catch 1pt e/w @20/1 Stan James
Ascot Stakes preview
The only handicap race on day one is a long one, the 2m4f (that's approximately 4000m if you prefer measurement systems which don't date back to the Dark Ages) Ascot Stakes. Willie Mullins backed up Simenon to win this race and the Queen Alexandra Stakes last year, is there a similar hardy warhorse in this field? Kieran Kenneally, @kierankenneally casts the magnifying glass over the field.
-----------------------
Ascot Stakes
For me, at times horse racing can be a very visual sport. Ratings, pedigree, jockey, trainer etc all go out the window. Sometimes I see a horse run and I say to myself, back him next time! I picked the Ascot Stakes tomorrow for one such horse, Justification!
In his last race in the Chester Cup I watched him closely because I had backed him and he had a very troubled passage and was very unlucky. That race was a better quality race than this with horses like Simenon, Countrywide Flame and Address Unknown finishing ahead of him. Simenon, himself unlucky in the same race is now third favourite for the Gold Cup on Thursday and Address Unknown has since run third in a listed race.
Justification travelled like a good horse at Chester with Ryan Moore hugging the rail but on a very tight track the gaps never appeared for him. Blocked on more than one occasion when he did get clear the race was over. Still beaten only just over four lengths, he would in my opinion have finished in the first three with a clear run. In a weaker race, the wide open expanse of Ascot likely to suit and a long finishing straight Justification can win this at a very juicy current price of 7/1.
The jumps trainers have farmed this race over the years and are well represented again. Philip Hobbs (2), David Pipe (2), Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Jonjo O'Neill are all here but they may come away empty handed this year.
Tiger Cliff has the bookies running but could be priced up on the wave of emotion a Cecil winner would produce rather than what he has shown on the track so far. A horse with plenty of potential, I'm just not sure he is ready to win a race of this quality at this stage of his career.
Mubaraza would have to enter the equation if you fancy Tiger Cliff because they are weighted to be very close to each other on their most recent running.
Well Sharp could be one of the better horses for the jumps trainers and has some good recent flat form as well. He would also seem to be a horse that will relish the 2m4f trip.
Blue Bajan has the best form of any horse in the race but at 11 yrs old finds it hard to win these days and makes little appeal.
Midnight Oil for the powerful Willie Mullins stable has probably the best form of the National Hunt horses and also some decent flat form. There is a link through a horse called Caravan Rolls On to Tiger Cliff that suggests to me that at the weights Midnight Oil will struggle to beat Tiger Cliff.
Lieutenant Miller has had some good recent runs but at a lower level.
Junior won this race in 2010 but is now 10 yrs old and this is a better race.
Mawaqeet is an interesting runner for Sir Michael Stoute but Paul Hanagan prefers Mubaraza.
Selection is a win bet on Justification at 7/1.
-----------------------
Ascot Stakes
For me, at times horse racing can be a very visual sport. Ratings, pedigree, jockey, trainer etc all go out the window. Sometimes I see a horse run and I say to myself, back him next time! I picked the Ascot Stakes tomorrow for one such horse, Justification!
In his last race in the Chester Cup I watched him closely because I had backed him and he had a very troubled passage and was very unlucky. That race was a better quality race than this with horses like Simenon, Countrywide Flame and Address Unknown finishing ahead of him. Simenon, himself unlucky in the same race is now third favourite for the Gold Cup on Thursday and Address Unknown has since run third in a listed race.
Justification travelled like a good horse at Chester with Ryan Moore hugging the rail but on a very tight track the gaps never appeared for him. Blocked on more than one occasion when he did get clear the race was over. Still beaten only just over four lengths, he would in my opinion have finished in the first three with a clear run. In a weaker race, the wide open expanse of Ascot likely to suit and a long finishing straight Justification can win this at a very juicy current price of 7/1.
The jumps trainers have farmed this race over the years and are well represented again. Philip Hobbs (2), David Pipe (2), Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Jonjo O'Neill are all here but they may come away empty handed this year.
Tiger Cliff has the bookies running but could be priced up on the wave of emotion a Cecil winner would produce rather than what he has shown on the track so far. A horse with plenty of potential, I'm just not sure he is ready to win a race of this quality at this stage of his career.
Mubaraza would have to enter the equation if you fancy Tiger Cliff because they are weighted to be very close to each other on their most recent running.
Well Sharp could be one of the better horses for the jumps trainers and has some good recent flat form as well. He would also seem to be a horse that will relish the 2m4f trip.
Blue Bajan has the best form of any horse in the race but at 11 yrs old finds it hard to win these days and makes little appeal.
Midnight Oil for the powerful Willie Mullins stable has probably the best form of the National Hunt horses and also some decent flat form. There is a link through a horse called Caravan Rolls On to Tiger Cliff that suggests to me that at the weights Midnight Oil will struggle to beat Tiger Cliff.
Lieutenant Miller has had some good recent runs but at a lower level.
Junior won this race in 2010 but is now 10 yrs old and this is a better race.
Mawaqeet is an interesting runner for Sir Michael Stoute but Paul Hanagan prefers Mubaraza.
Selection is a win bet on Justification at 7/1.
St James's Palace preview
The most tantalising race on day one of Royal Ascot looks to be the St James's Palace Stakes. After the debacle which was the favourite in the Derby, he's out for revenge, as is Toronado who had a boom on him coming into the Guineas, while there are a few others hyped to be slightly better than recent performances. And Ascot should prove to be a fairer test.
Making his blog debut to analyse this fine contest is Paul Cooper, @coopsracing. You'll enjoy reading this, he knows his stuff...
--------------------
St James's Palace Stakes
Until last week, the St James's Palace had a different complexion to it this year than in previous. It was due to be a clash between a classic winner that wasn't even considered a classic contender over the winter months and a horse that has a lot to prove after a disappointing run in the Newmarket classic. Then Jim Bolger changed the whole shape of the race by adding Dawn Approach to the mix, and Magician suffered a setback which threw his participation in doubt and although he's been declared i'm sure we'll only be certain of his participation at post time.
Regarding, Dawn Approach, should we have seen it coming? After all, it's not the first time a horse with the name Approach turns up somewhere we weren't expecting him.
The horse wins the Guineas then runs badly in the Derby for whatever reason and looks like having the summer off. But in the meantime he comes back to his best and is then ready to run at Ascot. If it wasn't for the well documented New Approach scandal, I’d believe this for one reason - exchanges. There wasn't any massive gamble at 100/1 + on him, just an announcement on Wednesday morning that he was back in and he was inserted back into the market both on the exchanges and in fixed odds markets accordingly.
Of course, Bolger could be pulling the wool over everyone's eyes - perhaps Ascot was always the plan and unless he got injured in the Derby the Epsom risk was minimal and the logical place to run him was in the last group one (bar the Jean Prat) for three-year-olds only over a mile. He has a huge question mark over him though, was the hard pulling tendencies shown at Epsom a one off and just down to the funereal pace in the Derby? We won't know the answer to the first point until after two furlongs. If he settles then he will take a lot of beating, if he doesn't then it doesn't matter what trip he runs over he won't win. He was beaten three out at Epsom, and the stamina question was never remotely tested, let alone answered.
Magician arrives off the back of two very impressive wins in May, firstly over ten furlongs in the Dee Stakes at Chester followed by that visually taking performance in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. His profile is somewhat confusing, and doesn't suggest that he was showing the sort of brilliance at two which would have led Aidan O'Brien to be going into winter circles thinking this was going to be his top three-year-old miler. A maiden win was the only notable achievement in four runs as a juvenile, and it wasn't until Chester he burst on to the radar as a horse to follow. Willie The Whipper's subsequent fine run in the Prix Du Jockey-Club confirmed the Chester run to be decent form, but it's the Curragh race that I suppose we have to judge him on in the context of next week's race.
The Curragh can be a searching test for a three-year-old, but the pace set by Trading Leather meant that a real stayer was going to win the Guineas, and from some way out it was obvious to those watching that Magician was going to be that horse. That race now has a huge significance as Bolger will know how far he would expect Dawn Approach to finish in front of Trading Leather over a mile. He may not do it the same way, but I can't see Magician being able to hold off Dawn Approach if the Godolphin horse runs as he did in the Guineas. How would you be pricing this race up if Bolger would have announced then Dawn Approach will miss the Derby and head straight to Ascot? 4/6 Dawn Approach? 4/7, 1/2? You certainly wouldn't have had him as second favourite as he was inserted earlier in the week. The setback doesn't bother me greatly at this stage, as if he's right then he'll run and if he's not then he won't. The setback only happened on Thursday and O'Brien wouldn't have left much to work on that close to the race. He is still the horse to take advantage of Dawn Approach, if the Guineas winner shows any of those alarming traits that he did at Epsom.
Ballydoyle are also represented by Mars and i'm not keen on him running in this because I can't have him as a miler. Favourite for the Derby after his maiden win at Dundalk, he's run two very solid races in classics this year, both staying on sixth places. The Guineas looked like a very good Derby trial, and he wasn't given the greatest of rides at Epsom - watching the race again, he could easily of challenged Ruler Of The World if he'd got running earlier, but did anyone reading this article think they'd drop him back to a mile for his next run? No, of course you didn't. The ten furlong race that he was earmarked for later in the week was the perfect race for him - he'd have been my banker of the week in that race - but a group one over a mile is never going to suit him and i'll be against him in every market possible.
There's another horse that we need to give serious consideration too, but unless Toronado proves to be the horse that both his jockey Richard Hughes, and assistant trainer Richard Hannon jnr hope him to be, I can't see him troubling the top two in the market. Hughes and Hannon are never afraid to show to the public that they believe they have a good horse - plenty have been touted, and a few - Canford Cliffs and Sky Lantern - in recent years have gone right to the top, and after his Craven win, you couldn't blame them for hoping Toronado was going to scale the heights of classic success.
What was the value of that Craven win? Beating Havana Gold and Dundonnell (the latter, who he was entitled to beat on 2012 Doncaster running) in hindsight didn't deserve to give him equal billing going into Newmarket with Dawn Approach, yet he ran a perfectly respectable race to finish fourth, considering he eyeballed the winner going in to the dip before giving way in the final furlong. I think he's exactly where his form puts him at the moment, a Group two winner who deserves another shot at the top level.
Toronado's fourth in the Guineas, strictly speaking entitles Glory Awaits to serious consideration, but I’ve never been one to take placings of outsiders in Group races seriously until they show it a second time. Of course, he and the stable deserve serious congratulations for finishing second in the Guineas but i'll be surprised if he can equal that placing, let alone go one better.
Of the others that complete the line-up, Dundonell is arguably over-priced and well worth a few quid each-way with the question marks over the other horses. A tall reputation at two, his Lingfield win was one of the most striking performances in a maiden last year and then a subsequent win at York followed by group placings at Doncaster and in the Breeders' Cup behind George Vancouver suggests that if Toronado is worth a shot at this level, then so is he. Granted, his two runs this year haven't been up to that level of form, but the Craven was a 4-runner race and you got the impression that Dundonnell would come on a lot for the race, and he could do no more than win at Newmarket last time. The 20/1 available ante-post was too big about him, and to my mind he's one to follow home Dawn Approach.
Strictly speaking he needs to improve to beat George Vancouver, but the O'Brien horse looks like he's going to be aimed at all of these sorts of races this year, whilst not being quite good enough. However, for any horse to go over to America and win a Breeders Cup race he must have a lot of class although Ryan Moore was at his brilliant best that day.
Mshawish would appear to have a decent level of form - my views on Intello that beat him in the French Derby are that he could be the best 3yo this year, and if he was running here I’d be confident of him storming home - but I don't think he'll have enough here.
Leitir Mor is obviously into set the pace for Dawn Approach, and although he managed to land a Group 3 at Leopardstown last week, he's got a far more important job for connections to do here, arguably he's the most important cog for Dawn Approach and young jockey Ronan Whelan has been set a big ask to get the fractions correct for Kevin Manning.
So, I think Dawn Approach will win if he's the horse that turned up in the Guineas. That's not the most original of statements though. From a betting point of view, I’ve two angles into the race - the first is that there is no need to back Dawn Approach before the off. He is already odds-on and will be so until Tuesday afternoon I would imagine. I think that if he takes the preliminaries in his stride and jumps and settles his price in-running will contract from something like 1.8 to 1.7 in a furlong. I'm happy to sacrifice that part of the price to know that everything is in my favour, in fact I think it's mad not to.
If you're not an exchange / in-running player and don't want to back odds-on, then at the prices I’d be happy to chuck a few quid on Dundonnell each-way to give Roger Charlton and James Doyle a big boost ahead of the feature race on Wednesday with Al Kazeem.
Making his blog debut to analyse this fine contest is Paul Cooper, @coopsracing. You'll enjoy reading this, he knows his stuff...
--------------------
St James's Palace Stakes
Until last week, the St James's Palace had a different complexion to it this year than in previous. It was due to be a clash between a classic winner that wasn't even considered a classic contender over the winter months and a horse that has a lot to prove after a disappointing run in the Newmarket classic. Then Jim Bolger changed the whole shape of the race by adding Dawn Approach to the mix, and Magician suffered a setback which threw his participation in doubt and although he's been declared i'm sure we'll only be certain of his participation at post time.
Regarding, Dawn Approach, should we have seen it coming? After all, it's not the first time a horse with the name Approach turns up somewhere we weren't expecting him.
The horse wins the Guineas then runs badly in the Derby for whatever reason and looks like having the summer off. But in the meantime he comes back to his best and is then ready to run at Ascot. If it wasn't for the well documented New Approach scandal, I’d believe this for one reason - exchanges. There wasn't any massive gamble at 100/1 + on him, just an announcement on Wednesday morning that he was back in and he was inserted back into the market both on the exchanges and in fixed odds markets accordingly.
Of course, Bolger could be pulling the wool over everyone's eyes - perhaps Ascot was always the plan and unless he got injured in the Derby the Epsom risk was minimal and the logical place to run him was in the last group one (bar the Jean Prat) for three-year-olds only over a mile. He has a huge question mark over him though, was the hard pulling tendencies shown at Epsom a one off and just down to the funereal pace in the Derby? We won't know the answer to the first point until after two furlongs. If he settles then he will take a lot of beating, if he doesn't then it doesn't matter what trip he runs over he won't win. He was beaten three out at Epsom, and the stamina question was never remotely tested, let alone answered.
Magician arrives off the back of two very impressive wins in May, firstly over ten furlongs in the Dee Stakes at Chester followed by that visually taking performance in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. His profile is somewhat confusing, and doesn't suggest that he was showing the sort of brilliance at two which would have led Aidan O'Brien to be going into winter circles thinking this was going to be his top three-year-old miler. A maiden win was the only notable achievement in four runs as a juvenile, and it wasn't until Chester he burst on to the radar as a horse to follow. Willie The Whipper's subsequent fine run in the Prix Du Jockey-Club confirmed the Chester run to be decent form, but it's the Curragh race that I suppose we have to judge him on in the context of next week's race.
The Curragh can be a searching test for a three-year-old, but the pace set by Trading Leather meant that a real stayer was going to win the Guineas, and from some way out it was obvious to those watching that Magician was going to be that horse. That race now has a huge significance as Bolger will know how far he would expect Dawn Approach to finish in front of Trading Leather over a mile. He may not do it the same way, but I can't see Magician being able to hold off Dawn Approach if the Godolphin horse runs as he did in the Guineas. How would you be pricing this race up if Bolger would have announced then Dawn Approach will miss the Derby and head straight to Ascot? 4/6 Dawn Approach? 4/7, 1/2? You certainly wouldn't have had him as second favourite as he was inserted earlier in the week. The setback doesn't bother me greatly at this stage, as if he's right then he'll run and if he's not then he won't. The setback only happened on Thursday and O'Brien wouldn't have left much to work on that close to the race. He is still the horse to take advantage of Dawn Approach, if the Guineas winner shows any of those alarming traits that he did at Epsom.
Ballydoyle are also represented by Mars and i'm not keen on him running in this because I can't have him as a miler. Favourite for the Derby after his maiden win at Dundalk, he's run two very solid races in classics this year, both staying on sixth places. The Guineas looked like a very good Derby trial, and he wasn't given the greatest of rides at Epsom - watching the race again, he could easily of challenged Ruler Of The World if he'd got running earlier, but did anyone reading this article think they'd drop him back to a mile for his next run? No, of course you didn't. The ten furlong race that he was earmarked for later in the week was the perfect race for him - he'd have been my banker of the week in that race - but a group one over a mile is never going to suit him and i'll be against him in every market possible.
There's another horse that we need to give serious consideration too, but unless Toronado proves to be the horse that both his jockey Richard Hughes, and assistant trainer Richard Hannon jnr hope him to be, I can't see him troubling the top two in the market. Hughes and Hannon are never afraid to show to the public that they believe they have a good horse - plenty have been touted, and a few - Canford Cliffs and Sky Lantern - in recent years have gone right to the top, and after his Craven win, you couldn't blame them for hoping Toronado was going to scale the heights of classic success.
What was the value of that Craven win? Beating Havana Gold and Dundonnell (the latter, who he was entitled to beat on 2012 Doncaster running) in hindsight didn't deserve to give him equal billing going into Newmarket with Dawn Approach, yet he ran a perfectly respectable race to finish fourth, considering he eyeballed the winner going in to the dip before giving way in the final furlong. I think he's exactly where his form puts him at the moment, a Group two winner who deserves another shot at the top level.
Toronado's fourth in the Guineas, strictly speaking entitles Glory Awaits to serious consideration, but I’ve never been one to take placings of outsiders in Group races seriously until they show it a second time. Of course, he and the stable deserve serious congratulations for finishing second in the Guineas but i'll be surprised if he can equal that placing, let alone go one better.
Of the others that complete the line-up, Dundonell is arguably over-priced and well worth a few quid each-way with the question marks over the other horses. A tall reputation at two, his Lingfield win was one of the most striking performances in a maiden last year and then a subsequent win at York followed by group placings at Doncaster and in the Breeders' Cup behind George Vancouver suggests that if Toronado is worth a shot at this level, then so is he. Granted, his two runs this year haven't been up to that level of form, but the Craven was a 4-runner race and you got the impression that Dundonnell would come on a lot for the race, and he could do no more than win at Newmarket last time. The 20/1 available ante-post was too big about him, and to my mind he's one to follow home Dawn Approach.
Strictly speaking he needs to improve to beat George Vancouver, but the O'Brien horse looks like he's going to be aimed at all of these sorts of races this year, whilst not being quite good enough. However, for any horse to go over to America and win a Breeders Cup race he must have a lot of class although Ryan Moore was at his brilliant best that day.
Mshawish would appear to have a decent level of form - my views on Intello that beat him in the French Derby are that he could be the best 3yo this year, and if he was running here I’d be confident of him storming home - but I don't think he'll have enough here.
Leitir Mor is obviously into set the pace for Dawn Approach, and although he managed to land a Group 3 at Leopardstown last week, he's got a far more important job for connections to do here, arguably he's the most important cog for Dawn Approach and young jockey Ronan Whelan has been set a big ask to get the fractions correct for Kevin Manning.
So, I think Dawn Approach will win if he's the horse that turned up in the Guineas. That's not the most original of statements though. From a betting point of view, I’ve two angles into the race - the first is that there is no need to back Dawn Approach before the off. He is already odds-on and will be so until Tuesday afternoon I would imagine. I think that if he takes the preliminaries in his stride and jumps and settles his price in-running will contract from something like 1.8 to 1.7 in a furlong. I'm happy to sacrifice that part of the price to know that everything is in my favour, in fact I think it's mad not to.
If you're not an exchange / in-running player and don't want to back odds-on, then at the prices I’d be happy to chuck a few quid on Dundonnell each-way to give Roger Charlton and James Doyle a big boost ahead of the feature race on Wednesday with Al Kazeem.
Sunday, 16 June 2013
King's Stand preview
Opening day of Royal Ascot sees a few short-priced favourites served up, and I reckon the bookies might be taking all of them on. The sprint doesn't have the high-class Aussie raider this year although Shamexpress did look an absolute machine in the pics from Newmarket last week. Can the South African hotpot claim the chocolates?. What does international form expert David Haddrell, @davidhaddrell think? David appears courtesy of 'The Gentleman's Bookmaker', Star Sports.
---------------
King's Stand Stakes
Tuesday sees the King's Stand Stakes, a group one sprint over Ascot's five furlong course. This race is often plundered by foreign raiders with Australian, Spanish and Hong Kong horses winning seven of the last ten renewals of the race.
This year sees another country trying to get in on the act with South African champion sprinter Shea Shea looking likely to start favourite for the race. Australia also are having a crack with the usual faces from the UK lining up. Let's go through the field in racecard order...
1. Ballesteros - First time hood for this lad who's only won handicaps although did manage a fourth in last year's Abbaye at Longchamp. Two runs this year have been disappointing and it's easy to pass over him.
2. Doc Hay - Another handicapper trying to make it pay at the top level but another one that has failed when he's tried in pattern company. He has won at Ascot but on soft and he'll need a lot of rain to get anywhere near winning a race at this level imo.
3. Heeraat - Another one that was running in handicaps last year but managed a fourth in the Palace House Stakes behind Sole Power at the Guineas meeting and looked as though he might be capable of moving up to better things. However, got beat as even money favourite at Beverley at the end of last month. I can see him outrunning his price if he gets the run of things as he has plenty of pace but I think he'll be playing for place money.
4. Jack Dexter - Extremely talented horse who's won races from 5f-7f at handicap and listed level but all on soft-heavy ground. Will be unlikely to see those words in the going description at Ascot and therefore couldn't consider backing him. Definitely one to keep an eye out if he lines up in a race like this in heavy ground though.
5. Kingsgate Native - Looks as good as ever at the tender age of eight after winning the Temple Stakes last time out at Haydock and has won at Ascot before when a surprise winner of the Golden Jubilee. On this year's form, he's very dangerous to underestimate and I certainly couldn't put anyone off backing him at 14/1 but I personally think he might just fall short as he did when going off favourite for this race in 2010 and 2011 (6th both years).
6. Medicean Man - Won three handicaps at Ascot in the past and posted arguably his best performance to date last time out at Haydock when beating Jwala. He came fourth in this race last year and arguably looks in better shape this year and 25/1 looks a bit big for him in a field where there isn't much between the main UK sprinters.
7. Move In Time - Won his first two races this year (handicaps) in good style before placing in two group threes (at Newmarket and Chantilly). The Chantilly race has been used as a prep for winners of this race before (Equiano) and he's a dangerous horse to rule out at a massive price. He's won and finished second at Ascot and goes on most ground so 50/1 makes no sense to me and I can see him running a huge race and potentially causing an upset.
8. Pearl Secret - It would be cruel to label him a talking horse as he's won four of his five races and only came up short on his run in a group one as a 3 year old in a very good Nunthorpe. He has long been thought highly of and plenty of well respected judges seemed to think he was a sprinter going places last year. He's an interesting runner and I'd be very tempted to back him at around 14/1 but he has had an interrupted prep for this race. I predict he'll just get beat in this before going on to win the Audi Stakes at Goodwood and the Nunthorpe but again, very hard to put anyone off at the price.
9. Prohibit - The 2011 winner of this race has only been seen once since last July and he really looks to have gone off the boil as he's matured in age and was beat fair and square at Maisons-Laffitte last week and that looked like a bit of a rushed prep for this race. He's only 33/1 because he's won this race before and there are plenty of rags with better recent form and better claims at bigger prices.
10 - Shamexpress - Australian sprinter in the King's Stand. Wins.
No? Well apparently not. The Aussies seem to think this one is a long way behind their previous winners of this race and the ratings would agree too as the RP only rated him 108 for his win in the Newmarket Handicap off a feather weight. The horses he beat that day have all been smashed since too. It's very dangerous to rule out a sprinter from down under but the talk and form suggests this one will need to step up on what it's done round Melbourne's tracks to even take care of our modest sprinters.
11. Shea Shea - A champion sprinter in South Africa, winning a group one at Turfontein last year in good style. He then travelled to Dubai and disappointed on debut in a handicap (behind Medicean Man) before improving beyond all recognition in his next two starts winning a listed sprint and the G1 Al Quoz Sprint beating some very very good horses from Hong Kong. I can't help thinking that those two runs, as impressive as they were, might have been exaggerated by the conditions out in Dubai. If he runs to the same level of form as he did in Dubai, he will bolt up but it's a massive question as to whether he does. Dubai has a very different climate and until recently, different medication rules and it's worth mentioning that Mike De Kock bought another one very similar to Ascot a few years ago in JJ The Jet Plane and he got found out when he came to Europe to compete in the top sprints. Plenty of other impressive Dubai winners have lined up at Ascot before and not troubled the judge. You'd be a very very brave man or woman to take 2/1 about this horse repeating that form here IMO and he'd count as one of the lays of the week.
12. Sole Power - Ultra consistent group one sprinter who was beat at Haydock as odds on favourite but his record speaks for himself. You could see him turning round the form with Kingsgate Native last time out but my concern about Sole Power is the track, he's been beaten the three times he's ran here and I see no reason why you should take 10 about him where there is 14 about Kingsgate Native out there, unless the ground gets very quick.
13. Spirit Quartz - Another consistent sprinter who won at Chantilly two weeks ago and came fifth in this race last year. His second places to Ortensia last year read very well and repeating of those would see him go very close but there is a cigarette paper between him, Sole Power and Kingsgate Native on numerous runs and he's another which will just come up short.
14. Stepper Point - Not won since two year old days and whilst he's ran well in two French group races the last twice which doesn't put him far behind quite a few of these, he's still a few lengths off them and I aren't rushing to take the 100/1.
15. Swiss Spirit - Another one that keeps finishing close to the usual UK sprinter crew and could be called an unlucky loser behind Kingsgate Native last time out at Haydock as he had a rough passage through the race. That aside, you're still betting the same form line again but at 10/1 because he was unlucky LTO and as crude as it sounds, in my experience, you don't see many folks driving Rolls Royces because they kept backing horses that were unlucky in their previous runs because they're very often... underpriced.
16. Angels Will Fall - Looked a sprinter to follow when winning a listed race at Ayr last year before finishing fifth behind Ortensia but really gone off the boil since and firmly put in her place at group level since then. Efforts this year have been lacklustre and the only hope of her getting close is if her new jockey buries her in the pack and if she travels, he could fly at the death but she'd be a real shock winner given her form.
17. Bungle Inthejungle - Very good two year old but always looked a two year and whilst he's ran very well (won once) on his two runs at Ascot, he just looks like a horse that hasn't trained on and he's easy to leave out of the reckoning.
18. Reckless Abandon - The fly in the ointment for me. He was a fantastic two year old, winning all 5 races at sprint distances in good style and connections decided to send him sprinting rather than tackle the Guineas this year. He was beat on debut in the Temple behind Kingsgate Native and Swiss Spirit but if anything is going to improve and cement itself as a top UK sprinter then it'll be this one but I'm not sure there's much juice in the price.
19. Hoyam - Another decent two year old who's been found out since and has at least a stone to find to get competitive. His trainer has managed it before though at this meeting with a similar type (Art Connoisseur) but even so, he's 66/1 with justifiable reason.
Conclusion
This has boil over written all over it to my eyes. The flashy favourite has it all to prove in a new country coming from somewhere where plenty before him have disappointed when they've reached the heady heights of European group racing but the home challenge is very exposed and really, only two UK sprinters have won this in ten years (if you count Equiano as being Spanish for his second win). Kingsgate Native, Swiss Spirit, Sole Power and Spirit Quartz know one another inside out but they keep beating one another and all of them bar Swiss Spirit have failed in this race in the past and I can't see why that will change on Tuesday. The young pretender that chased them home that day is the most likable of the main domestic contenders but his price reflects that.
With a weakened or questionable foreign challenge and an exposed domestic defence at the top end of the market, it makes sense to look outside the box in this race and I think course form is more important at Ascot than at most tracks. Medicean Man and Move In Time bring great course records to the table and both have hinted at being capable of running well at this level and I'm much happier having them on my side at 25/1 and 50/1 respectively over the front end of the betting.
Advice
Bet Medicean Man EW at 25/1
Bet Move In Time EW at 50/1
---------------
King's Stand Stakes
Tuesday sees the King's Stand Stakes, a group one sprint over Ascot's five furlong course. This race is often plundered by foreign raiders with Australian, Spanish and Hong Kong horses winning seven of the last ten renewals of the race.
This year sees another country trying to get in on the act with South African champion sprinter Shea Shea looking likely to start favourite for the race. Australia also are having a crack with the usual faces from the UK lining up. Let's go through the field in racecard order...
1. Ballesteros - First time hood for this lad who's only won handicaps although did manage a fourth in last year's Abbaye at Longchamp. Two runs this year have been disappointing and it's easy to pass over him.
2. Doc Hay - Another handicapper trying to make it pay at the top level but another one that has failed when he's tried in pattern company. He has won at Ascot but on soft and he'll need a lot of rain to get anywhere near winning a race at this level imo.
3. Heeraat - Another one that was running in handicaps last year but managed a fourth in the Palace House Stakes behind Sole Power at the Guineas meeting and looked as though he might be capable of moving up to better things. However, got beat as even money favourite at Beverley at the end of last month. I can see him outrunning his price if he gets the run of things as he has plenty of pace but I think he'll be playing for place money.
4. Jack Dexter - Extremely talented horse who's won races from 5f-7f at handicap and listed level but all on soft-heavy ground. Will be unlikely to see those words in the going description at Ascot and therefore couldn't consider backing him. Definitely one to keep an eye out if he lines up in a race like this in heavy ground though.
5. Kingsgate Native - Looks as good as ever at the tender age of eight after winning the Temple Stakes last time out at Haydock and has won at Ascot before when a surprise winner of the Golden Jubilee. On this year's form, he's very dangerous to underestimate and I certainly couldn't put anyone off backing him at 14/1 but I personally think he might just fall short as he did when going off favourite for this race in 2010 and 2011 (6th both years).
6. Medicean Man - Won three handicaps at Ascot in the past and posted arguably his best performance to date last time out at Haydock when beating Jwala. He came fourth in this race last year and arguably looks in better shape this year and 25/1 looks a bit big for him in a field where there isn't much between the main UK sprinters.
7. Move In Time - Won his first two races this year (handicaps) in good style before placing in two group threes (at Newmarket and Chantilly). The Chantilly race has been used as a prep for winners of this race before (Equiano) and he's a dangerous horse to rule out at a massive price. He's won and finished second at Ascot and goes on most ground so 50/1 makes no sense to me and I can see him running a huge race and potentially causing an upset.
8. Pearl Secret - It would be cruel to label him a talking horse as he's won four of his five races and only came up short on his run in a group one as a 3 year old in a very good Nunthorpe. He has long been thought highly of and plenty of well respected judges seemed to think he was a sprinter going places last year. He's an interesting runner and I'd be very tempted to back him at around 14/1 but he has had an interrupted prep for this race. I predict he'll just get beat in this before going on to win the Audi Stakes at Goodwood and the Nunthorpe but again, very hard to put anyone off at the price.
9. Prohibit - The 2011 winner of this race has only been seen once since last July and he really looks to have gone off the boil as he's matured in age and was beat fair and square at Maisons-Laffitte last week and that looked like a bit of a rushed prep for this race. He's only 33/1 because he's won this race before and there are plenty of rags with better recent form and better claims at bigger prices.
10 - Shamexpress - Australian sprinter in the King's Stand. Wins.
No? Well apparently not. The Aussies seem to think this one is a long way behind their previous winners of this race and the ratings would agree too as the RP only rated him 108 for his win in the Newmarket Handicap off a feather weight. The horses he beat that day have all been smashed since too. It's very dangerous to rule out a sprinter from down under but the talk and form suggests this one will need to step up on what it's done round Melbourne's tracks to even take care of our modest sprinters.
11. Shea Shea - A champion sprinter in South Africa, winning a group one at Turfontein last year in good style. He then travelled to Dubai and disappointed on debut in a handicap (behind Medicean Man) before improving beyond all recognition in his next two starts winning a listed sprint and the G1 Al Quoz Sprint beating some very very good horses from Hong Kong. I can't help thinking that those two runs, as impressive as they were, might have been exaggerated by the conditions out in Dubai. If he runs to the same level of form as he did in Dubai, he will bolt up but it's a massive question as to whether he does. Dubai has a very different climate and until recently, different medication rules and it's worth mentioning that Mike De Kock bought another one very similar to Ascot a few years ago in JJ The Jet Plane and he got found out when he came to Europe to compete in the top sprints. Plenty of other impressive Dubai winners have lined up at Ascot before and not troubled the judge. You'd be a very very brave man or woman to take 2/1 about this horse repeating that form here IMO and he'd count as one of the lays of the week.
12. Sole Power - Ultra consistent group one sprinter who was beat at Haydock as odds on favourite but his record speaks for himself. You could see him turning round the form with Kingsgate Native last time out but my concern about Sole Power is the track, he's been beaten the three times he's ran here and I see no reason why you should take 10 about him where there is 14 about Kingsgate Native out there, unless the ground gets very quick.
13. Spirit Quartz - Another consistent sprinter who won at Chantilly two weeks ago and came fifth in this race last year. His second places to Ortensia last year read very well and repeating of those would see him go very close but there is a cigarette paper between him, Sole Power and Kingsgate Native on numerous runs and he's another which will just come up short.
14. Stepper Point - Not won since two year old days and whilst he's ran well in two French group races the last twice which doesn't put him far behind quite a few of these, he's still a few lengths off them and I aren't rushing to take the 100/1.
15. Swiss Spirit - Another one that keeps finishing close to the usual UK sprinter crew and could be called an unlucky loser behind Kingsgate Native last time out at Haydock as he had a rough passage through the race. That aside, you're still betting the same form line again but at 10/1 because he was unlucky LTO and as crude as it sounds, in my experience, you don't see many folks driving Rolls Royces because they kept backing horses that were unlucky in their previous runs because they're very often... underpriced.
16. Angels Will Fall - Looked a sprinter to follow when winning a listed race at Ayr last year before finishing fifth behind Ortensia but really gone off the boil since and firmly put in her place at group level since then. Efforts this year have been lacklustre and the only hope of her getting close is if her new jockey buries her in the pack and if she travels, he could fly at the death but she'd be a real shock winner given her form.
17. Bungle Inthejungle - Very good two year old but always looked a two year and whilst he's ran very well (won once) on his two runs at Ascot, he just looks like a horse that hasn't trained on and he's easy to leave out of the reckoning.
18. Reckless Abandon - The fly in the ointment for me. He was a fantastic two year old, winning all 5 races at sprint distances in good style and connections decided to send him sprinting rather than tackle the Guineas this year. He was beat on debut in the Temple behind Kingsgate Native and Swiss Spirit but if anything is going to improve and cement itself as a top UK sprinter then it'll be this one but I'm not sure there's much juice in the price.
19. Hoyam - Another decent two year old who's been found out since and has at least a stone to find to get competitive. His trainer has managed it before though at this meeting with a similar type (Art Connoisseur) but even so, he's 66/1 with justifiable reason.
Conclusion
This has boil over written all over it to my eyes. The flashy favourite has it all to prove in a new country coming from somewhere where plenty before him have disappointed when they've reached the heady heights of European group racing but the home challenge is very exposed and really, only two UK sprinters have won this in ten years (if you count Equiano as being Spanish for his second win). Kingsgate Native, Swiss Spirit, Sole Power and Spirit Quartz know one another inside out but they keep beating one another and all of them bar Swiss Spirit have failed in this race in the past and I can't see why that will change on Tuesday. The young pretender that chased them home that day is the most likable of the main domestic contenders but his price reflects that.
With a weakened or questionable foreign challenge and an exposed domestic defence at the top end of the market, it makes sense to look outside the box in this race and I think course form is more important at Ascot than at most tracks. Medicean Man and Move In Time bring great course records to the table and both have hinted at being capable of running well at this level and I'm much happier having them on my side at 25/1 and 50/1 respectively over the front end of the betting.
Advice
Bet Medicean Man EW at 25/1
Bet Move In Time EW at 50/1
Wednesday, 12 June 2013
US Open preview
Major golf championships played at courses which haven't seen an elite professional tournament for 30 years aren't the easiest ones to pick, and a week of steady rain makes it quite different to the standard hot, steamy weather with fairways and greens cut incredibly short. Taking up the challenge of the preview is Lara Pocock, @lara_pocock.
---------------
US Open
Although the weather ahead of the 113th US Open Golf Championship has been well reported and affected many of the players warm up rounds, the tournament, which is to be held at Merion Golf Club over the next four days, appears to be another vintage edition. The heavy rain is set to continue in the coming days and this could affect the amount of play each day, with Saturday the only currently predicted dry day. This may well play into the hands of some of the more experienced players, as well as those used to the conditions, i.e. anyone who plays on the European Tour!
Many of the Bookmakers are offering good deals, with Paddy Power, Bet Victor and Stan James all offering seven places in the outright betting. However these firms are not always offering the best prices and with ties likely, you could get paid out if your player ties for fifth or sixth at a better price.
Tiger Woods is the hot favourite, reaching 5-1 in places but still available at 6-1 with a few firms. Although he played well in the US Masters, finishing a tied fourth, and winning the Players Championship at the beginning of May he was disappointing in the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago. I have no doubt Tiger will another Major but at this price he is far too short for this and many others appeal. There are some good Tiger Specials available, including 33-1 that he will be leading after Round One, leading each stage and win the tournament.
Thursday will see the dream team of Woods, Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott playing together. Scott, the US Masters winner is in the betting at 25-1, with McIlroy also available at the same price. Scott had been on the brink of winning a Major for a number of years and won the Masters in a playoff but is unlikely he will follow up again so quickly. McIlroy has been in-and-out of form, finishing tied 25th in the US Masters and his best recent result coming when second in the Texas Open. He could creep up the leaderboard if things play into his hands.
I have divided the players up into four categories and have given my tips in each.
1. Players 25-1 and under
Graeme McDowell (22-1) and Matt Kuchar (22-1).
Both experienced players, McDowell tasted US Open victory in 2010 and Kuchar's game has been improving in recent years, he recorded top ten finishes in two of last year's Majors and was tied for eighth place in the US Masters earlier this year. McDowell enjoyed top 12 positions in all Majors last year and although he did not make the cut in the US Masters he won RBC Heritage in April.
2. Players 26-1 to 50-1
Keegan Bradley (50-1), Brandt Snedeker (33-1) and Sergio Garcia (30-1).
Garcia may get some cop in the US media after falling out with Tiger Woods last month but his game has been solid and he has four top ten US Open finishes under his belt. He was tied for eighth in the US Masters and could go close again. Keegan Bradley has been knocking on the door a number of times but has not been the most consistent player. I think he will win a Major one day and he has solid each way chances if he can reproduce his best game. He was second in the Byron Nelson last month and won his first Major, the PGA Championship, in 2011 so can handle the pressure. Brandt Snedeker is steady, he was sixth in the US Masters and has two top ten finishes in the US Open from five rounds.
3. Players 51-1 to 100-1
Hunter Mahan (66-1), Matteo Manassero (60-1) and Zach Johnson (80-1).
An interesting statistics is the fact that only two of the last eight tournament winners have started shorter than 80-1 so there is some definite value here if you can find it! Hunter Mahan was a very short price in the US Masters and disappointed in dramatic fashion and did not make the cut. However he has played well since in the Players Championship and Memorial Tournament. Matteo Manassero has been mentioned by many. The 20-year-old Italian won the BMW PGA Championship earlier this year and was the youngest player to ever win that tournament. He is now in the top 30 of the Official World Rankings and could play a major part in this weekend, playing well off the greens and hitting the ball straight. Zach Johnson has won all three play-offs he has played in on the PGA Tour and won the 2007 US Masters. He is an accurate player and this course could play to his strengths. Another player who may enjoy the course is Rickie Fowler, who won all four of his matches in 2009 Walker Cup at this course but his recent form has been questionable. His outfits are the current highlight of his game but is one to watch closely.
4. Players over 100-1
K J Choi (125-1), Francesco Molinari (100-1), Lucas Glover (200-1).
This is a hard category to crack as it covers the majority of the field but one or two are likely to surprise so it is worth looking at, it is rather exciting if your 200-1 shot is leading after day one and can you make some money laying off the bet if you wish to do so. The veteran K J Choi is good off the tee and as accurate as they come. He has a fantastic record in the US Masters and this course and conditions could really suit him. Lucas Glover won the Championship in 2009 but his form is often terrible. He can produce a good round from nowhere and is worth a point or two at 200-1. Francesco Molinari can play well under pressure, ensuring the team won the 2012 Ryder Cup. His record in Majors is not magnificent but he could be another surprise. Look for accurate form on a short course and some luck in this category, any form at the course is another major positive, the possible reason on the gamble Kevin Chappell.
Specials
A low score is likely due to the weather affecting the course and play. The course will suit a short, accurate player as the rain on the fairways will mean the ball does not travel as far. The par is 70 and many have said -8 or -7 could win it, although betting on the score is hard to find it could be worth taking the odds of a play off deciding the title, currently around 12-5, as with many players could end up tied for placings.
The Americans have a fine record in this tournament and they are the hot favourites to win again, with the host's being the odds-on favourites to be the winning nation. The Europeans are next at 2-1 and this could worth a punt with the likes of Graeme McDowell and Luke Donald possibles to put in good cards.
As mention before the Tiger Specials are tempting if he is to break his duck and win his first Major for five years. However he has been drifting in the betting due to weather and I would be avoiding him altogether.
One of my favourite and most consistent players is K J Choi and he is likely to be the leading Asian player if he puts in some accurate scorecards and he is still available at 11-4 for this. With the possibility that Adam Scott will crack up, and serial jibber Jason Day another in the leading Australasian player category, the 2006 US Open winner Geoff Ogilvy as the leading player from this region at 11-1 is tempting although he does need to hit a patch of form.
---------------
US Open
Although the weather ahead of the 113th US Open Golf Championship has been well reported and affected many of the players warm up rounds, the tournament, which is to be held at Merion Golf Club over the next four days, appears to be another vintage edition. The heavy rain is set to continue in the coming days and this could affect the amount of play each day, with Saturday the only currently predicted dry day. This may well play into the hands of some of the more experienced players, as well as those used to the conditions, i.e. anyone who plays on the European Tour!
Many of the Bookmakers are offering good deals, with Paddy Power, Bet Victor and Stan James all offering seven places in the outright betting. However these firms are not always offering the best prices and with ties likely, you could get paid out if your player ties for fifth or sixth at a better price.
Tiger Woods is the hot favourite, reaching 5-1 in places but still available at 6-1 with a few firms. Although he played well in the US Masters, finishing a tied fourth, and winning the Players Championship at the beginning of May he was disappointing in the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago. I have no doubt Tiger will another Major but at this price he is far too short for this and many others appeal. There are some good Tiger Specials available, including 33-1 that he will be leading after Round One, leading each stage and win the tournament.
Thursday will see the dream team of Woods, Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott playing together. Scott, the US Masters winner is in the betting at 25-1, with McIlroy also available at the same price. Scott had been on the brink of winning a Major for a number of years and won the Masters in a playoff but is unlikely he will follow up again so quickly. McIlroy has been in-and-out of form, finishing tied 25th in the US Masters and his best recent result coming when second in the Texas Open. He could creep up the leaderboard if things play into his hands.
I have divided the players up into four categories and have given my tips in each.
1. Players 25-1 and under
Graeme McDowell (22-1) and Matt Kuchar (22-1).
Both experienced players, McDowell tasted US Open victory in 2010 and Kuchar's game has been improving in recent years, he recorded top ten finishes in two of last year's Majors and was tied for eighth place in the US Masters earlier this year. McDowell enjoyed top 12 positions in all Majors last year and although he did not make the cut in the US Masters he won RBC Heritage in April.
2. Players 26-1 to 50-1
Keegan Bradley (50-1), Brandt Snedeker (33-1) and Sergio Garcia (30-1).
Garcia may get some cop in the US media after falling out with Tiger Woods last month but his game has been solid and he has four top ten US Open finishes under his belt. He was tied for eighth in the US Masters and could go close again. Keegan Bradley has been knocking on the door a number of times but has not been the most consistent player. I think he will win a Major one day and he has solid each way chances if he can reproduce his best game. He was second in the Byron Nelson last month and won his first Major, the PGA Championship, in 2011 so can handle the pressure. Brandt Snedeker is steady, he was sixth in the US Masters and has two top ten finishes in the US Open from five rounds.
3. Players 51-1 to 100-1
Hunter Mahan (66-1), Matteo Manassero (60-1) and Zach Johnson (80-1).
An interesting statistics is the fact that only two of the last eight tournament winners have started shorter than 80-1 so there is some definite value here if you can find it! Hunter Mahan was a very short price in the US Masters and disappointed in dramatic fashion and did not make the cut. However he has played well since in the Players Championship and Memorial Tournament. Matteo Manassero has been mentioned by many. The 20-year-old Italian won the BMW PGA Championship earlier this year and was the youngest player to ever win that tournament. He is now in the top 30 of the Official World Rankings and could play a major part in this weekend, playing well off the greens and hitting the ball straight. Zach Johnson has won all three play-offs he has played in on the PGA Tour and won the 2007 US Masters. He is an accurate player and this course could play to his strengths. Another player who may enjoy the course is Rickie Fowler, who won all four of his matches in 2009 Walker Cup at this course but his recent form has been questionable. His outfits are the current highlight of his game but is one to watch closely.
4. Players over 100-1
K J Choi (125-1), Francesco Molinari (100-1), Lucas Glover (200-1).
This is a hard category to crack as it covers the majority of the field but one or two are likely to surprise so it is worth looking at, it is rather exciting if your 200-1 shot is leading after day one and can you make some money laying off the bet if you wish to do so. The veteran K J Choi is good off the tee and as accurate as they come. He has a fantastic record in the US Masters and this course and conditions could really suit him. Lucas Glover won the Championship in 2009 but his form is often terrible. He can produce a good round from nowhere and is worth a point or two at 200-1. Francesco Molinari can play well under pressure, ensuring the team won the 2012 Ryder Cup. His record in Majors is not magnificent but he could be another surprise. Look for accurate form on a short course and some luck in this category, any form at the course is another major positive, the possible reason on the gamble Kevin Chappell.
Specials
A low score is likely due to the weather affecting the course and play. The course will suit a short, accurate player as the rain on the fairways will mean the ball does not travel as far. The par is 70 and many have said -8 or -7 could win it, although betting on the score is hard to find it could be worth taking the odds of a play off deciding the title, currently around 12-5, as with many players could end up tied for placings.
The Americans have a fine record in this tournament and they are the hot favourites to win again, with the host's being the odds-on favourites to be the winning nation. The Europeans are next at 2-1 and this could worth a punt with the likes of Graeme McDowell and Luke Donald possibles to put in good cards.
As mention before the Tiger Specials are tempting if he is to break his duck and win his first Major for five years. However he has been drifting in the betting due to weather and I would be avoiding him altogether.
One of my favourite and most consistent players is K J Choi and he is likely to be the leading Asian player if he puts in some accurate scorecards and he is still available at 11-4 for this. With the possibility that Adam Scott will crack up, and serial jibber Jason Day another in the leading Australasian player category, the 2006 US Open winner Geoff Ogilvy as the leading player from this region at 11-1 is tempting although he does need to hit a patch of form.
Saturday, 8 June 2013
The Belmont Stakes
The American Triple Crown concludes this weekend at Belmont without the huge draw of a horse going for the set. On the other hand, that can be a positive for punters as it's a proper race rather than finding half the field ducking the latest equine star who would soon be sent off to the breeding barn to print money for his owners.
Regular US racing contributor Jon da Silva, @creamontop is back to pull the field apart and share his wisdom....
----------------------------------
The Belmont Stakes
The final leg of the US Triple Crown is The Belmont stakes at Belmont in Elmont New York State. 1 mile 4 furlongs on dirt is a rare distance hence it's not a race that is easy to read or handicap. This year has more competitive horses than last with the winners of the [Kentucky] Derby and Preakness turning up not to mention the Derby second and third who ducked the Preakness.
As with the other two races of the Triple Crown pace will make the race. The track is currently wet [sloppy] but the year I went Friday was abandoned in a monsoon and the track rode Ok the next day. Hard to handicap for a wet track since some horses may never have run on a wet track before and many of those who have will be sample of one if they ran badly. Last year the horses who had been 1,2 in both the first two legs did not race here or ever again - indeed Union Rags did not run again either. I won't go all trends on that but you may prefer to give a plus to fresh horses.
Prices quoted best British odds.
In Draw Order
Frac Daddy. Seems to have gone backwards. No obvious late stamina suggesting moves. Arkansas Derby finished in slow mo and he was nearly 5 lengths off Overanalyze. Well beaten by Orb in Florida. There seems no angle to suggest a big run is on the cards. 33/1 not for me on form.
Freedom Child. Led all the way in a Peter Pan romp over a sloppy Belmont and won 13 lengths. So certainly one for the course and wet track angle. Destroyed in the Wood after missing the break where Vyjack was 3rd. Previous win when leading all the way. Split Orb and Revolutionary in a 2yo 1 mile Maiden at Aquaduct (that was some maiden). Not forlorn as he has the joint highest Brisnet pace rating here and Preakness winner Oxbow's Gary Stevens may relent given the distance. Thus we have a seeming need to lead horse stepping up three furlongs into a bigger field. He has a price but for me it's not 8s or less.
Overanalyze according to Trakus possibly the one unlucky horse in the Kentucky Derby as he may have had a troubled trip. Finished well that day (5th fastest final furlong) which one could see as a hint at stamina but 13 back with half the field dead at the turn - says little to me. His Arkansas Derby win does not appear to be very fast or grand form then again Oxbow was fifth. 16s fair enough with mixed messages and I fancied him at Churchill.
Giant Finish is kind of badly named as he's a pace sort. One place in front of Overanalyze in the Derby. Does not fold totally on not getting the lead. Distance maybe an issue. Hard to read as prepped for the Derby on Synthetics. 50/1 I like as his Derby run not out of place with horses who are shorter.
Orb the late runner who swooped around the field in the Derby. Installed as favourite as the narrative is he had deep inside ground and was drawn inside in the Preakness where he encountered no pace. Many including Timeform's Simon Rowlands have poo-pooed the idea that the Preakness was slowly run as times at Pimlico were all slow that weekend - Oxbow has the best speed figure in the field as a result of that race. Also Mylute closed well enough into supposed slow fractions. I don't rule Orb out but if you take the view rather than being unfavoured he stepped back last time then 7/2 seems shy. He may have the best form in the race but that was true of the Preakness and he was 4th. Also the assumption seems to be his late running style is necessarily stamina induced again an assumption I would not make at this price in a 14 runner classic off two hard races in five weeks. Drawn five of 14 so whilst better than Preakness if you believe he needs to be wide not ideal.
Incognito six starts two wins like Freedom Child and Giant Finish. Incognito finishing 15 lengths behind Freedom Child in the Peter Pan - on the slop. Main vestige of hope is he is relatively fresh that bad defeat was on a sloppy track. However had only previously won a maiden (4th attempt) and a $25K Optional Claimer for non winners of one i.e. is for non-winners of a race other than a maiden or claiming race. 25s taken so obviously others see something. 20/1
Oxbow presumed by many to have stolen the Preakness as Gary Stevens 'walked the dog' on the front. However as said about Orb good judges dispute this and it gives him the best speed rating here. Last 2 wins have been when leading at the 1st call including the 13 length striping of Golden Soul 2nd in the Derby back in January. He did run on in the Derby without the lead. 13/2 Fairly Priced as last time could well have been an improving horse again though this is his third run in five weeks and after 11 starts maybe we can't get too carried away. Could drift to a value price like 8s.
Midnight Taboo comes here for his fourth start. Steps up in distance 3.5 furlongs (700m) having won a maiden. 33/1 you're welcome to it. Pletcher who has five's pace spoiler?
Revolutionary game tough a street fighter maybe what one wants for this test. Fresher than Oxbow and Orb but will probably have to pass all 13 rivals to win. 5s seems fair enough.
Will Take Charge appears not to. Does have an argument over Oxbow but so did most of the Preakness field. No showed in the Preakness. Has bumped brushed traffic checked in his form which you could see as bad luck. You can also see a longer race slower pace more spread out as giving habitual unlucky horses more scope. Brisnet distance score is high. 25/1 More proven than some at this price but maybe more exposed and his Preakness was horrible.
Vyjack four wins leading into the Wood where he was third narrowly pipped by Normandy Invasion who might be second fav here if running. Brutal 18th of 19 in the Kentucky Derby. Does not give me that vibe he will love the distance or big field here. It's only an impression and 33s would have seemed large two months ago.
Palace Malice has run between 93 and 102 on Brisnet speed ratings on all starts which is pretty consistent - his only win in a maiden with his slowest speed rating. He was largely responsible for the suicide pace in the Kentucky Derby. I just can't see any angle he wins bar everything lets him go. Best form on synths and well behind Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby. Sure another who if he's running free after two furlongs you might want 14s but with four or five likely leaders not for me.
Unlimited Budget the filly to give us something to talk about. Steps up three furlongs faces colts and did not win the Kentucky Oaks even with the favourite taken out. 12s seems about right. Four wins from five starts.
Golden Soul came close to being a 'skinner' in the Kentucky Derby. Got a lovely trip into second at Churchill Downs and much longer price than the two close to him that day. Draws wide here. Tempting but given the traffic and carnage at Churchill can't help feeling he got a great trip. Previously done by Oxbow & Revolutionary. 10/1
Conclusion
Freedom Child and Orb will be Wet track positives from their last wins. I suspect Orb will be shorter than the current UK price of 7/2 as he seems positively perceived and any rain will be seen as a positive for him. Obviously anything that grabs an easy lead will have an advantage but I see four or five here who want to press the pace - mind I saw three in the Preakness and Oxbow led them all. Oxbow could drift given the impression he was lucky last time. I personally expect Revolutionary to be most likely to run his race of the principals/closers. This is an intriguingly poised race with so many angles involving redemptions, two very differently run classics leading in here, two classic winners, unexposed horses, freshness, pace, five Pletcher horses etc with no obvious ricks to me
I'll have a shekel on Giant Finish at 50s who may still be unexposed on dirt.
Regular US racing contributor Jon da Silva, @creamontop is back to pull the field apart and share his wisdom....
----------------------------------
The Belmont Stakes
The final leg of the US Triple Crown is The Belmont stakes at Belmont in Elmont New York State. 1 mile 4 furlongs on dirt is a rare distance hence it's not a race that is easy to read or handicap. This year has more competitive horses than last with the winners of the [Kentucky] Derby and Preakness turning up not to mention the Derby second and third who ducked the Preakness.
As with the other two races of the Triple Crown pace will make the race. The track is currently wet [sloppy] but the year I went Friday was abandoned in a monsoon and the track rode Ok the next day. Hard to handicap for a wet track since some horses may never have run on a wet track before and many of those who have will be sample of one if they ran badly. Last year the horses who had been 1,2 in both the first two legs did not race here or ever again - indeed Union Rags did not run again either. I won't go all trends on that but you may prefer to give a plus to fresh horses.
Prices quoted best British odds.
In Draw Order
Frac Daddy. Seems to have gone backwards. No obvious late stamina suggesting moves. Arkansas Derby finished in slow mo and he was nearly 5 lengths off Overanalyze. Well beaten by Orb in Florida. There seems no angle to suggest a big run is on the cards. 33/1 not for me on form.
Freedom Child. Led all the way in a Peter Pan romp over a sloppy Belmont and won 13 lengths. So certainly one for the course and wet track angle. Destroyed in the Wood after missing the break where Vyjack was 3rd. Previous win when leading all the way. Split Orb and Revolutionary in a 2yo 1 mile Maiden at Aquaduct (that was some maiden). Not forlorn as he has the joint highest Brisnet pace rating here and Preakness winner Oxbow's Gary Stevens may relent given the distance. Thus we have a seeming need to lead horse stepping up three furlongs into a bigger field. He has a price but for me it's not 8s or less.
Overanalyze according to Trakus possibly the one unlucky horse in the Kentucky Derby as he may have had a troubled trip. Finished well that day (5th fastest final furlong) which one could see as a hint at stamina but 13 back with half the field dead at the turn - says little to me. His Arkansas Derby win does not appear to be very fast or grand form then again Oxbow was fifth. 16s fair enough with mixed messages and I fancied him at Churchill.
Giant Finish is kind of badly named as he's a pace sort. One place in front of Overanalyze in the Derby. Does not fold totally on not getting the lead. Distance maybe an issue. Hard to read as prepped for the Derby on Synthetics. 50/1 I like as his Derby run not out of place with horses who are shorter.
Orb the late runner who swooped around the field in the Derby. Installed as favourite as the narrative is he had deep inside ground and was drawn inside in the Preakness where he encountered no pace. Many including Timeform's Simon Rowlands have poo-pooed the idea that the Preakness was slowly run as times at Pimlico were all slow that weekend - Oxbow has the best speed figure in the field as a result of that race. Also Mylute closed well enough into supposed slow fractions. I don't rule Orb out but if you take the view rather than being unfavoured he stepped back last time then 7/2 seems shy. He may have the best form in the race but that was true of the Preakness and he was 4th. Also the assumption seems to be his late running style is necessarily stamina induced again an assumption I would not make at this price in a 14 runner classic off two hard races in five weeks. Drawn five of 14 so whilst better than Preakness if you believe he needs to be wide not ideal.
Incognito six starts two wins like Freedom Child and Giant Finish. Incognito finishing 15 lengths behind Freedom Child in the Peter Pan - on the slop. Main vestige of hope is he is relatively fresh that bad defeat was on a sloppy track. However had only previously won a maiden (4th attempt) and a $25K Optional Claimer for non winners of one i.e. is for non-winners of a race other than a maiden or claiming race. 25s taken so obviously others see something. 20/1
Oxbow presumed by many to have stolen the Preakness as Gary Stevens 'walked the dog' on the front. However as said about Orb good judges dispute this and it gives him the best speed rating here. Last 2 wins have been when leading at the 1st call including the 13 length striping of Golden Soul 2nd in the Derby back in January. He did run on in the Derby without the lead. 13/2 Fairly Priced as last time could well have been an improving horse again though this is his third run in five weeks and after 11 starts maybe we can't get too carried away. Could drift to a value price like 8s.
Midnight Taboo comes here for his fourth start. Steps up in distance 3.5 furlongs (700m) having won a maiden. 33/1 you're welcome to it. Pletcher who has five's pace spoiler?
Revolutionary game tough a street fighter maybe what one wants for this test. Fresher than Oxbow and Orb but will probably have to pass all 13 rivals to win. 5s seems fair enough.
Will Take Charge appears not to. Does have an argument over Oxbow but so did most of the Preakness field. No showed in the Preakness. Has bumped brushed traffic checked in his form which you could see as bad luck. You can also see a longer race slower pace more spread out as giving habitual unlucky horses more scope. Brisnet distance score is high. 25/1 More proven than some at this price but maybe more exposed and his Preakness was horrible.
Vyjack four wins leading into the Wood where he was third narrowly pipped by Normandy Invasion who might be second fav here if running. Brutal 18th of 19 in the Kentucky Derby. Does not give me that vibe he will love the distance or big field here. It's only an impression and 33s would have seemed large two months ago.
Palace Malice has run between 93 and 102 on Brisnet speed ratings on all starts which is pretty consistent - his only win in a maiden with his slowest speed rating. He was largely responsible for the suicide pace in the Kentucky Derby. I just can't see any angle he wins bar everything lets him go. Best form on synths and well behind Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby. Sure another who if he's running free after two furlongs you might want 14s but with four or five likely leaders not for me.
Unlimited Budget the filly to give us something to talk about. Steps up three furlongs faces colts and did not win the Kentucky Oaks even with the favourite taken out. 12s seems about right. Four wins from five starts.
Golden Soul came close to being a 'skinner' in the Kentucky Derby. Got a lovely trip into second at Churchill Downs and much longer price than the two close to him that day. Draws wide here. Tempting but given the traffic and carnage at Churchill can't help feeling he got a great trip. Previously done by Oxbow & Revolutionary. 10/1
Conclusion
Freedom Child and Orb will be Wet track positives from their last wins. I suspect Orb will be shorter than the current UK price of 7/2 as he seems positively perceived and any rain will be seen as a positive for him. Obviously anything that grabs an easy lead will have an advantage but I see four or five here who want to press the pace - mind I saw three in the Preakness and Oxbow led them all. Oxbow could drift given the impression he was lucky last time. I personally expect Revolutionary to be most likely to run his race of the principals/closers. This is an intriguingly poised race with so many angles involving redemptions, two very differently run classics leading in here, two classic winners, unexposed horses, freshness, pace, five Pletcher horses etc with no obvious ricks to me
I'll have a shekel on Giant Finish at 50s who may still be unexposed on dirt.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)