Skip to main content


Showing posts from June, 2021

Wimbledon Ladies' Singles Preview 2021

A remarkable market this year with only two women in the betting under 10/1 - seven-time champion Serena Williams and world no.1 Ash Barty - and even then they are both 6/1. It's a wide open field which depending on which way you look at, means either huge value at the top of the market, or ripe for the picking for an outsider or a new star. Which will it be? Seeds in draw order 1. Ash Barty. In great form this season, winning Yarra Valley, Miami and Stuttgart but has retired due to injury in two of her last three matches - in Rome (right arm) and Paris (left hip). She has declared herslf to be fit and ready to go, so we take that at face value, but at the same time, I don't see Barty as the type to make excuses in advance if not 100%. In the absence of defending champion Simona Halep, she takes the honour of opening proceedings for the women on centre court on Tuesday, and wearing a dress to honour Evonne Goolagong on the 50th anniversary of her first Wimbledon win. The Queen

Wimbledon Men's Tournament Preview 2021

Not writing any content for payment at the moment so thought I'd do it on the blog to keep my eye in. Wimbledon returns after a year off, and thankfully, with a considerable crowd, increasing up to 100% for the finals. To be honest, reducing capacity on the outside courts in the early rounds will only make the experience nicer for patrons and players, it's bloody manic trying to get around or close to an outside court normally! Novak Djokovic dominates the betting, fairly understandable considering he has now spent over six years at the top of the rankings (in several stints), the only man to win the professional Grand Slam twice, and has had the pleasure of speaking to Sue Barker on the final Sunday five times. But after his antics over the past couple of years and particularly in Paris (the ridiculous roar to an empty stadium), please can we see someone else...  Set up ready for the first practice session on the Championship courts today #PitcurePerfect

Royal Ascot Day Five summary preview

So it looks like a Heavy track for Saturday, hopefully no worse than what we finished with on Friday. Morning update - no rain after 8pm last night, ground is Soft, Heavy in places. Betting summary for Friday - more seconds, this time Tasman Bay and Boomshalaa, getting rather sick of those! 1430 - Chesham Stakes Point Lonsdale looks the standout here, he recorded a massive RPR on debut, bolting in at the Curragh in a maiden. This brother of Broome looks like the stable Derby colt for next season already. The ground shouldn't bother him but the fact the stable hasn't landed a swathe of winners like most years is a slight concern. Great Max only debuted last week but lengthened stride nicely when clear and has a future. For a roughie, Withering's run home on debut at Lingfield was exactly that, he was miles back on the turn and flew home. This will be a tougher task but he's unfashionably bred, from a low profile stable, and consequently over priced. Point Lonsdale, Great

Royal Ascot Day Four summary preview

Our situation overnight is summed up by this classic tune - will it come tonight?   Friday could be a day for confident punting, but let's see how much water falls from the sky first. If it's anything like this evening on the south coast, I'd be surprised if we didn't move to good to soft, with rain scheduled right through to the start of racing. So the first few races are previewed, and I'll hold off on the rest until I get a clearer idea of what to study for. Results Day 3   - Getting closer to the mark after three days! Eshaada and Sir Lamorak running second was frustrating, but action at ColossusBets was the saviour - took my stake back on my Place 6 syndicate after four legs which proved wise after we bombed out on the Britannia, while I had a small share of one of the very few successful tickets, paying £2774 (40p of £6935), well played "fiveoutsix", in what might have been his/her first syndicate! 1430 - Albany Stakes I was keen on Eve Lodge in th

Commonwealth Cup preview

An intriguing race with plenty of chances, this really has been a great addition to the Royal Ascot programme although I don't see why it needs to be a breeders only contest (no geldings allowed). The colts have dominated in the six editions so far, with only Quiet Reflection in 2016 winning for the fairer sex. This might be the strongest hand the fillies have had so far.  UPDATED at 0930 for expected Soft/Heavy going. ================================ Commonwealth Cup Royal Ascot, Friday Group 1, 6f, £350,000 3yo colts and fillies 1540 local, 0040 AEST 1. A Case of You (15) , 19. Mooneista (1) and 6. Laws of Indices (13) finished close together in the Lacken Stakes at Naas, six lengths ahead of favourite on the day, 7. Lipizzaner (12) . They say a blanket finish is often a poor form race and think this Irish group are a few lengths shorts of the best of these, although A Case Of You has won three from four in soft going.   2. Diligent Harry (6)  NON-RUNNER runs on turf for the fi

Royal Ascot Day Three summary preview

Here we go with the raffle of day three. It's expected to piss down from a great height in thunderstorms on Wednesday night with showers scheduled throughout Thursday and Friday, but that could mean we get anywhere between 5 and 35mm by the first race. The track has been hard and fast on the first two days so you'd think it'll take a decent amount of rain to really move the gauge to the extent it starts hampering the chances of some runners. However I do think it will throw all draw 'bias' out the window. UPDATE 0830 - only 2.4mm of rain overnight which is about as much as they used to water the course after day one. Good to firm it stays! Confidence levels low until we see what the track looks like around 2pm, and with that, a disclaimer that what appears below may be substantially different to my final bets should the weather and racing pattern be a stark change from a gentle change I have worked on. (UPDATE - no change in selections, but confidence kept in reserv

Royal Ascot Day Two summary preview

Notes from day one - the grandstand rail is perceived to have the advantage, watch for horses on that side to bet overbet in places. Expect draw results to spread out tomorrow. A tough day, more handicaps, just the single G1 and clear favourites I'm not that excited about. Day 1 ledger - in profit from Poetic Flare but didn't go close with anything else. 1430 - Queen Mary Stakes full detailed preview here 1505 - Queen's Vase Intriguing race regularly won by Aidan O'Brien, Mark Johnston or Sir Michael Stoute, although the race was shortened to 1m6f after a 33/1 shot Sword Fighter took the prize in 2016. Every winner bar that one since 2002 has been 7/1 or shorter, with favs winning 8/18. Wordsworth is a brother to Kew Gardens who won this three years ago and will set a high standard, but two other colts caught my eye. Stowell was the horse which earned Rab Havlin a lengthy ban for trying not to beat the stable favourite in that race at Lingfield, and then followed up wit

Queen Mary Stakes preview

The track is dry, the rain is another day away and the theory is the grandstand rail is the place to go. Let's bring on day two! Campanelle winning in 2020 =================================== Queen Mary Stakes Royal Ascot, Wednesday 5f, Group 2, £80k 2yo fillies 1430 local, 2330 AEST Some trends to whet to focus the selection filtering. Since 2002: 18/19 winners finished first or second last time out 18/19 winners had 1-3 career starts to date 7/19 winning favourites (including two joint) 3 of last 6 won by Wesley Ward 3 of last 5 won by Frankie Dettori 1. Artos (2) - American raider for George R Arnold II who I must confess I've not come across before. Ran second to the highly-rated Ruthin on debut then had this amazing win at Churchill Downs at her next start - this has to be seen to be believed! Red silks, black epaulettes and cap. But after watching that, how's she going to cope with the Ascot straight? Will gate 2 be an asset or a liability? The form has proved strong

Royal Ascot Day 1 summary preview

Warm sunshine, some spectators and Group 1 racing on the international stage - simply brilliant! Throughout the week, I'll do a mix of individual race previews and a summary of the rest, and hopefully find some winners in there for us. And if you're after an audio version instead, I've been on a podcast as well! New ep with @borisranting : - Day 1 tips for #RoyalAscot - his career in racing and time at @Betfair - tips for being a better punter — The Big Chill Podcast (@Big_Chill_Pod) June 14, 2021 TUESDAY 1430 - Queen Anne Stakes The Festival kicks off with this G1 WFA contest over the mile, the race that saw Frankel propel himself to an even higher level in 2012, winning by 11 lengths.  PALACE PIER is simply the best Flat horse in training, at least in Europe, and these are prime conditions for him. His three biggest winning margins were on good or good-to-firm going, none of these rivals hold a candle to him. It won't quite be like the

Wolferton Stakes preview

A classy Listed race late on day one to mix up proceedings. Entries in this are usually not quite top drawer, with quite a few of them ending up on a plane to Australia to chase the riches in Melbourne. That might change this year with new health requirements coming in for new arrivals. As opposed to my other feature preview , the St James' Palace Stakes, this race tends to be more open according to the trends. 11 of last 15 winners have started 7/1 or over, and 13 of the last 18 winners were unplaced last time out (only three qualify). Addeybb winning the Wolferton Stakes in 2019. ========================= Wolferton Stakes Royal Ascot, Tuesday Listed, £75,000, 4yo+ 1m2f 1735 local, 0235 AEST 1. Euchen Glen (10). Pulled off a 20/1 shock in a field of four by winning the Brigadier Gerard by 4.25L three weeks ago, after dropping back from 1m5f. Likely to be a tougher task here in a bigger field but he will be the highest rated horse here for a reason.  2. Forest of Dean (1) . Won de