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Showing posts from June, 2020

Irish Derby preview

A bizarre edition of the Irish Derby this year being a victim of the Covid crisis and the major reshuffling of the Flat fixture list. It precedes the English equivalent, the traditional build-up has either been compressed, removed or comes rather close to this race so you'll have to be concerned about the quick back-up, and only three horses have won a Group or Listed race to date. Big scope for improvement throughout, and any of the stable stars from the big guns are likely to be going to Epsom or Longchamp instead. Of the 15 declared runners, only five don't have "O'Brien" listed as trainer. Six for Aidan, three for Joseph and one for young Donnacha. And as we saw last year with Sovereign at 33/1, not being top of the jockey bookings doesn't instantly rule a line through any of their chances. ----------------------------- Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Group 1, 3yo, 1m4f €750,000 1915 local, 0415 Sydney 1415 New York Arthur's Kingdom Impressive Camelot colt

Royal Ascot Saturday summary

Friday's summary page had a great result with the best outsider Alounak running second at 40/1 SP, with as much as 80/1 available earlier. Onward and upwards, it's the final day! Silver Wokingham Another nightmare consolation handicap to start the card, and unless you go 15 wide, you're probably odds-on be out of your Placepot/Colossus ticket after one race. With only 3lbs between top and bottom, this is very evenly graded but I'm going to take a punt on the bottomweight Gabrial The Wire (50/1) .  He resumed on Jun 2nd running third in a handy Newcastle handicap, his first run on the AW where he was caught behind a wall of horses when the winner made his run. Once clear he made decent ground and will be better for the run. Despite having most of his runs at Dr Koukash's playground, Chester, he has won up the Doncaster straight and wasn't far away in a big Newmarket handicap last July. With Connor Murtagh getting 3lbs and drawn toward the middle of the track, I t

Diamond Jubilee Stakes preview

Royal Ascot comes to close with the traditional G1 finale, the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. No sign of any Black Caviar in this field but it is a cracking contest with a trio of four-year-olds at the top of the market who I expect to be genuine Group 1 sprinters by the end of the season, if not tomorrow afternoon. Can make a case for all of these, don't correlate the amount of detail supplied directly with their chances!    ---------------------- The Diamond Jubilee Stakes G1, 6f, £250k 1535 local, 0035 Sydney, 1035 New York Expected track condition - Good 1. Dream of Dreams - beaten a head by Blue Point in this race last year, his season then tailed off, leading to the infamous two stone weightdrop over the offseason. Hasn't the best conversion rate with eight seconds and only four firsts, but if in the same form as this time last year, must be a chance with Ryan Moore aboard.  2. Hello Youmzain - flying machine in the Kevin Ryan stable who ran third in the Commonwealth Cup last

Royal Ascot Friday preview

Rain rain go away, at least let us have some clarity on the ground throughout the day. Khaloosy did the job for us yesterday at a nice early price, what awaits us today?                                                      The Palace of Holyroodhouse Palace of Holyroodhouse Of all the new races, this one is the race I'm least keen on. Art Power was impressive first-up winning at Newcastle and is clear favourite. Could win quite easily, otherwise it's wide open. Albany The Wesley Ward filly Flying Aletha is favourite but how will she fare on soft ground? After being burnt in the Windsor Castle, I'll steer clear of this one . Frankie's sticking with the Gosden filly, Willabell who was just nutted on the line on debut at Yarmouth after trying to lead all the way in a small field. A daughter of War Front, whose progeny excel at Ascot, she'll come on for that run and should benefit from a larger field. Golden Melody won comfortably on debut and looks to be the only o

Royal Ascot Thursday meeting preview

With thunderstorms predicted for Ascot, the predicted volume of rain could make a mockery of any detailed preview so I've opted for just the summary today. Golden Gates Yet another thorny handicap to start the day, this time with the threat of thunderstorms hanging over us. Maori Knight is scheduled to go up 6lb after a narrow second at Haydock 11 days ago and looks well suited here. The biggest doubt hangs over the form of his trainer, with Richard Hughes not setting the world on fire since lockdown. Higher up the weights, Hypothetical has shown plenty of ability in two starts to date, and Acquitted was only beaten by G1-bound Palace Pier last time at Newcastle. Wolferton In every start beyond his first two, Regal Reality has raced in Group company and acquitted himself well, only disappointing (beaten 10.5L) in the Champion Stakes in October. Earlier in 2019, he'd gotten within 3L of Enable in the G1 Eclipse and 4L of Japan in the G1 Juddmonte International.  He's at

Remainder of Royal Ascot Wednesday preview

So checking out the rest of the card... Royal Hunt Cup Consolation So just in case solving the Royal Hunt Cup wasn't hard enough, they've brought in a consolation race under the same conditions!  Brian Epstein was high in the betting for the Buckingham Palace but didn't get in. Was set for the Britannia last season but then nearly died last season after a mystery bug. Stable have a high opinion of him and familiarity is probably the only reason Moore and Dobbs have kept their respective Hannon rides. Will be better for his second at Haydock after a year off. Red Bond ran third behind Daarik at Newcastle and will relish the extra furlong, while Maydanny is another Hamdan al Maktoum unexposed handicapper with plenty of upside. Hampton Court Some very interesting formlines converge here, not to mention pedigrees. The blueblood of the field is Russian Emperor, by Galileo out of outstanding Australian mare Atlantic Jewel, who won a swag of G1s. He still looks immature, yet to

Windsor Castle Stakes preview - Wednesday

My chosen race for Wednesday is the Windsor Castle, analysing the potential of the once-raced juveniles rather than the more exposed handicappers. A tricky contest with plenty of runners in form, but with all the disruption to training and racing schedules, how do we gauge which stables are peaking here, and which ones have slapped it altogether and hope all the stars are in alignment today? -------------------------- Windsor Castle Stakes 2yo, Listed, 5f, £40k 1610 Wednesday local time (0110 Sydney, 1110 New York) Astimegoesby - nice debut at Newmarket, making all the running and fighting on well to record a close third behind two handy Godolphin colts. Represents a handy new trainer who has decent owners behind him. Chief Little Hawk - word was out that the Air Force Blue progeny looked ready to go, and this one lived up to the hype at Navan, straight to the front and doing his job well. Did require a couple of taps with the whip to suggest there wasn't much left up the sleeve,

Remainder of Royal Ascot Tuesday preview

Will restrict the deep dive to one race a day, quick summary of the rest of my day one thoughts... It won't look anything like this in 2020! Buckingham Palace covered in detail here Queen Anne Could this be as simple as Circus Maximus or bust? Came back from the Derby last year to the mile to win the St James' Palace last year, ran second to Too Darn Hot in the Sussex and won the G1 Prix de Moulin in September. Think he has a bit on these at his best, but without a lead-up run, there's always that doubt. Accidental Agent won this two years ago, then refused to race last year. He's had the snip over the winter and Eve Johnson Houghton is said to be very happy with him. Mohaather is very lightly raced and highly regarded, while the two mares at the bottom, Billesdon Brook and Terebellum, will be competitive. Ribblesdale Frankly Darling was mighty impressive winning at Newcastle and is the pick of the Gosden trio. Plenty more to come from her with only two starts under

Buckingham Palace Handicap Stakes preview

Welcome to the COVID version of Royal Ascot! And to fit perfectly with what a prick of a year it has been, they dish up an utter bastard of a handicap, a race they've added to the programme after a hiatus since 2014. Most sites and tipsters have gone for the easy option of focusing on the Group races, I'll take on the challenge of the handicap. Interesting trivia - John Gosden won the very first one in 2002 and has a big chance of winning the 'first' edition of the second spell. David O'Meara won the last running with Louis The Pious and has two or three shots to go 'back-to-back'. Other current trainers with a chance of winning it again are Kevin Ryan (2006 and 2013), Jamie Osborne (2010) and Roger Varian (2012 - yes, he's been training for that long!). Similarly with jockeys: the only previous winners are Silvester de Sousa won in 2014, Martin Dwyer in 2011. Previously it was worth £100k, but it's down on the minimum for this year. And possibly mos