originally posted here 10 February 2009
Chelsea and Portsmouth are managerless. Bring on the chaos that is the Next Manager Market!
These markets can be absolute gold mines, but also very dangerous. As is the nature of them, the markets will fluctuate heavily based purely on rumours. People will put two and two together and come up with seven. ALWAYS be aware that humans make the decisions to interview, hire etc, and information always gets out. The worst case of this was when Harry Redknapp went back to Portsmouth - he held a press conference saying he wasn't leaving Southampton, meanwhile his price was getting hammered on Betfair. Watch the market constantly - if the market isn't behaving according to normal volatility.
The best manager markets are the ones which last a few weeks or longer, however I doubt this time that's an option - unless caretaker managers are appointed until the end of the season, which are NOT counted by betting firms. The Spurs manager job when Jacques Santini got it (2004) and the Ireland national job (2007) markets were brilliant - each had at least six different guys who became favourite and/or odds-on, making it a layer's delight.
Tips to profit on next Manager markets.
1. The earlier you get in the better. As soon as you see the headline on Sky Sports News, start thinking about who might get the job, and wait for the Betfair market to surface.
2. Don't punt the market. You want to lay a book by laying as many different managers as possible.
3. No need to take big risk. Just take a fiver here, tenner there, two quid there etc, building up a buffer (big green) on everyone else.
4. Don't be desperate to close out.
5. When you see a price dropping, almost invariably will it drift back out again. So get in there and lay some.
6. Don't leave lots of offers (backs and lays) up on the screen near market prices (just under/over current market) when you won't be online for a while. If Sky Sports News reports a big rumour, then the market could move severely and you will lay one runner and back all the rest.
7. Don't be afraid to speculate at big odds for a couple of quid if there is logic for why that person might be interested in the job, or why people might think they'd be interested.
8. Keep a level head.