Skip to main content

Getting the Best of Grand Slam Betting and Tennis Trading

Getting the Best of Grand Slam Betting and Tennis Trading

By Scott Ferguson

originally published at www.puntingace.com

Tennis Betting on an Exchange and The Grand Slams Betting on tennis has changed markedly in recent years. Once upon a time, bookies would offer a selection of matches, then close all markets when the match was scheduled to begin. Now in the technological age, we have live scoring from most tournaments, live television coverage and in-play betting. For punters, this means it's a whole new ball game....

To my mind, the best thing about betting on tennis is the live action. A two-runner market which can vary markedly on a single line call or unforced error offers enormous opportunities for the sharp-minded punter. But more about that later. Outright betting The French Open and Wimbledon are the two Slams with the least number of genuine winning chances. This is due to the specialist nature of the respective playing surfaces. Hardcourt is more of a 'middle-ground' surface which gives a greater number of players some chance.

Backing favourites in Slams has never been my go - the outright price at any time is always shorter than the combined all-up price, and that's without factoring in the fluctuations in-play. Even a brilliant player like Federer will have the odd shaky set where his match price drifts above the pre-match odds.

Let's take a look at clay - it is a different matter entirely to other surfaces. (This next section was written before the French Open 2005). If you pull apart the Federer Express' clay record, I'd be inclined to lay him. So he won in Hamburg in the leadup event, he's in great form. Well, actually, he won there in 2002 and 2004. His record at Roland Garros those years - R1 loss to Hichan Arazi, and R3 loss to Gustavo Kuerten. He has won two matches on the Paris dirt in his last three visits. Would you want to back him at 3.5??

In Grand Slams, the outright markets always have good depth. My personal preference is to look for longshots to trade on in the hope they can make it through a couple of rounds and the seeds start to fall away. If you can find a decent claycourter drawn amongst seeded players better known on other surfaces, you've found a prime candidate. How high a price you go depends upon how much you are looking to risk or win. If you're happy locking in a profit of a tenner, then aim high - 600+. If you're chasing three- or four-figure profits, then you might be better off looking at players in the 50-100 bracket. Points to take note of when trading outright markets:

1. Liquidity and market percentages are stronger overnight, many layers play safe and cancel their offers when play begins. If you want to leave yours up whilst play is going on, work to wider margins (ask for a few points higher to back, and lower to lay) as you can't focus on all the courts at once.

2. Many punters over-react while a match is in progress and will take a lower price than what will probably be available after the match when the dust has settled. Think about what price you would take after this match - ask for several points lower if you are keen to lay, or several points higher if wanting to back your player.

for the full article, click here

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

The Cup review

James McDonald feels the emotion of winning the Melbourne Cup on Verry Elleegant. (photo credit Darrian Traynor/Getty Images) With every man and his dog doing Cup previews these days, perhaps a postmortem of the race provides more value - at least for these more serious about the game or want something to refer back to in 363 days' time. It was great to see Flemington basking in the warm spring sun, with no threat of rain which buggers up the confidence you have in the state of the track, an integral part of betting on horses. The crowd was back, at least about 10% of the normal Cup day crowd, but 10,000 more than were allowed last year. Let us never have to deal with these restrictions again in our lifetimes. The TV coverage - well, um, ugh. On Derby Day, I was able to watch the racing.com stream in the UK while Sky Sports Racing kept to their normal NSW-controlled Sky Racing Aus coverage which denies that Victoria and South Australia exist. For Cup Day, they switched to the Chann