Skip to main content

Give Yourself An Edge - Play weak markets

Give Yourself An Edge - Play weak markets
By Scott Ferguson

Originally published at www.puntingace.com

Take a look at the highest rating sporting events on TV, then compare them to a list of the most popular betting events. The bookmakers follow these events closely, the punters follow them closely, so how are you supposed to make an edge?

Ask yourself this question: If a bookmaker has to price up English Premiership soccer, the Super Bowl and Australian NBL basketball all at the same time - which event is he more likely to make an error in?

Think about it - the vast majority of clients and the bigger bets are going to come for the higher profile events. Thus your bookie is going to spend 90% of his time doing the research, managing the risk, keeping an eye on the newswire and other prices on the big events as well. That makes it very tough for you to find an edge on those markets. Every little item gets reported on TV, on the internet, in the papers, so the markets tend to be well-formed with similar prices around the industry worldwide. Not to mention that nearly every time, someone else will always have faster access to the information trail.

Stop focusing on what's on TV, or at least the result of the event you are watching, and more on what can make you money. You can find weak markets everywhere. Bookmakers are always trying to bring in new clients by offering extra markets. Within major events, you can always find weak markets by shopping around several firms. American sports for example have plenty of player 'props' - scoring or statistical matchups against another player, or under/over a certain number, within a game.

For the full article, click here

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…