Skip to main content

Sports Gambling Maxims - from againsttheline.com

From an American college sports betting forum - similar to many of the previous ones I've posted.


When looking back at a year of college football, and necessarily college football betting, gone by it is easy to note some of the mistakes we have made in attempts to increase our bankroll. Though most folks who have bet for a long period of time should have overcome all of these pratfalls (especially if they hope to be at all successful) I see entirely too many betting "Veterans" make these "Rookie" mistakes.

So collected here for you today are
"Bryan Mulroney’s Sports Betting Maxims"
(Use them and prosper or ignore them at your peril.)

1. Always be in control
This is maxim #1 because it is the paramount virtue of all bettors. Betting should not be done on a whim or just to have some cash riding on the game (unless you are chalking up the $10 wager as an entertainment expense.) When betting games you should be sober, clear headed, and able to explain in 20 words or less to a buddy why the money you’re laying is a “good bet.” If you cannot offer at least a moderately compelling reason for betting, you should pick your money up.

2. Leave your emotions at the door
Everybody is guilty of violating this maxim at one point or another. You “know” the Big 12 (or the SEC, or Big Ten, etc…) is the toughest conference in the country and so you want them to spank that undefeated OOC team that plays in the weak Big East (ACC, Pac-10, etc…) . You let your money ride on a bad line taking “your” team to beat up on the evil team from somewhere else. All too often folks rally behind a team or conference and leave their critical mind out to lunch. Betting on what you know best isn’t bad, but don’t let your allegiance blind you.

3. Understand the nuances
As a bettor you have to know the game. You need to know the difference between a moneyline bet and a wager against the spread. You need to understand the “vig or the juice” and you have to understand walking to your book and laying a “nickel” isn’t five bucks. Further, as you gain an understanding of sports betting, you’ll want to know how and where to “shop” for the best spreads. You’ll want to understand the “bonuses” you can get at real casinos, online casinos, and from your "neighborhood book." Each and every one of these items plays a role in a winning season and you should be well aware of them all.

4. Understand that winning is "long term"
This is a huge rookie mistake. You’ll see the guy in Vegas saunter up to the counter and lay $50 on a 10 team parlay (with a few moneylines tossed in…) to win some ungodly sum. He may make it through a game or two, but the probability of breaking the bank is roughly akin to that of your e-Toys stock shooting back up into the stratosphere. Now I have no beef with folks who like to parlay on occasion, but it should not be done haphazardly with the intent of gaining thousands on your $20 wager. Entertainment aside, betting should be done over the course of a season with a quality money management system and an attention to the nuances that can increase your winnings and "take home" greatly.

5. Remain skeptical
Just a quick look around online and you’ll see "Cappers" proclaiming 78% wins for the season or 80% on all five star plays, etc… Be very skeptical of anyone who claims numbers like these. You only need 52.5% winners to make a profit (assuming 10% juice) and anyone hitting at an 80% clip is unlikely to be selling his picks online rather than vacationing at his Italian Villa that he bought when he rolled his bank account nearly 10 times the first season… So with that in mind, take a good look at what is out there and use the “Professionals” like you would use herbal medicine – maybe they work, but you’ll be damned if you believe without a good deal of first hand experience.

6. Read, research, and most importantly watch
If you want to be successful in sports betting you need to know sports. To know sports, you should be watching as much as you can (great excuse for the wife if you HAVE to watch for your new second occupation) and further reading and analyzing when the games aren’t being played. In addition to hitting the sports mega-sites (and their recycled AP stories) seek out quality content at other sites (here at ATL, Covers.com, FreeWinners.com, FootballForecasters.com, etc…) and use the insights to grow your knowledge about the teams you are betting. Further, check out some message boards about teams you are considering betting that you only have minimal information for. Rabid fans of a team may be biased, but they will give you insight into minor injuries, coaching issues, etc…well before the national media (and if they’re a small team likely before any media at all…)

7. Don’t worry and don’t chase
You will lose. You will have a down week (and possibly down weeks). But don’t fret. If you do your homework, and make sure you are following the maxims above you will likely end the season a winner. Make sure you follow sound money management techniques and do not chase a loss by betting bigger on the next game or betting a game you planned to avoid in the first place.

8. Don’t spend your wife’s money
This might be more aptly titled, “Only gamble what you can afford to lose” but that has become so cliché as to be obnoxious. You already know this but it is worth a brief mention. Do not be ashamed if all your bankroll permits are a few $5 bets each weekend. There are plenty casinos that will be happy to take you wager. Stay within your boundaries and as you grow your bankroll you can increase the number of dollars you lay on each game.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…