Skip to main content

no such thing as a certainty

A great weekend of sport and more evidence that there is no such thing as a certainty in sports betting.

The Superbowl - New England were undefeated all season, going for history trying to emulate the 1972 Dolphins etc, and were strong 12.5pt favourites. The Pats took the lead inside the last two minutes and looked set to win by just a few points... and then along came Eli Manning who threw the Giants to a shock victory.

Six Nations rugby - England, supposedly the second best team in the world after losing in the final of the World Cup last October, were strong favourites against Wales, and led 19-3 early in the second half. Tens of thousands were wagered on them at the lowest Betfair price possible, 1.01 (risking £100 to win a single pound), but it was the punters laying that price who were celebrating. A remarkable Welsh comeback saw them triumph 26-19 and the England backers (1.24 before the start of the match) feeling very sick.

Tottenham v Man Utd - with the last kick of the match, Man Utd got out of jail, claiming the late equaliser. Spurs were matched for plenty at 1.01 and 1.02 again, money-buyers trying to win a penny for every pound and getting burnt big time!

No sympathy for people taking such stupid prices - there is no such thing as a certainty, and the time you really need that one to win, no matter how far ahead they seem to be, it will turn around and bite you!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…