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no such thing as a certainty

A great weekend of sport and more evidence that there is no such thing as a certainty in sports betting.

The Superbowl - New England were undefeated all season, going for history trying to emulate the 1972 Dolphins etc, and were strong 12.5pt favourites. The Pats took the lead inside the last two minutes and looked set to win by just a few points... and then along came Eli Manning who threw the Giants to a shock victory.

Six Nations rugby - England, supposedly the second best team in the world after losing in the final of the World Cup last October, were strong favourites against Wales, and led 19-3 early in the second half. Tens of thousands were wagered on them at the lowest Betfair price possible, 1.01 (risking £100 to win a single pound), but it was the punters laying that price who were celebrating. A remarkable Welsh comeback saw them triumph 26-19 and the England backers (1.24 before the start of the match) feeling very sick.

Tottenham v Man Utd - with the last kick of the match, Man Utd got out of jail, claiming the late equaliser. Spurs were matched for plenty at 1.01 and 1.02 again, money-buyers trying to win a penny for every pound and getting burnt big time!

No sympathy for people taking such stupid prices - there is no such thing as a certainty, and the time you really need that one to win, no matter how far ahead they seem to be, it will turn around and bite you!

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Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


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Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

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