tips for Saturday

Wozniacki (4.3) v Jankovic - the Danish girl is a former junior champion here and making big in-roads this year. Jankovic hasn't looked as dominant this week and her arduous schedule over the past two years will start taking its toll soon.

Peng (2.18) v Kudryavtseva - the Chinese player is very good, don't get carried away with the Russian's win over Sharapova. Maria was awful and players ranked >100 will often pull off a big win and then suffer a big let-down in the very next match.

Haas (3.4) v Murray - why is this guy such a big price? Oh yeah, he's playing the British superstar who can't possibly be beaten. Yeah right. Their record is 1-1 with the latest result going to Haas. The German is a very dangerous player when his body is right and he's great value in this tight clash.

Youzhny (2.46) v Stepanek - can't see why there's such a big gap in price here. Stepanek was taken to five sets by Troicki who isn't that good, and he's coming off a recent rib injury. Youzhny took five sets to beat Galvani who had come through qualifying. They are 17th and 16th seeds respectively and the record is split at 2-2. The Russian at the price for me.

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track. There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------

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