today at Wimbledon

Bets:

Clement (2.24) v Becker. The German simply isn't that good, Davydenko really didn't care on Tuesday, he just wanted to go home ASAP after the British press opened up the match-fixing stuff again. Can't see how Clement isn't favourite here, and a clear one.

Dulko (2.6) v Davenport. The big Yank was extremely heavily strapped in R1 on her comeback from injury and illness, I'm banking on Dulko being far more capable of running her around. The steady (and stunning) Dulko is a very handy player and can definitely exploit any weaknesses in Davenport's fitness.

Kleybanova (2.5) v Hantuchova. The stunning Slovak is coming back off a long injury break and faces a tougher opponent than in R1. She won't be allowed to make as many unforced errors here. I'd hoped the price would be a little higher on the Russian, but I think there is still some value left.

Positions to trade:

Hsieh (10) v Safina - the Taipei girl is very feisty, has a good Slam record and is far better than her ranking suggests. Safina has been on a great run of form but is now getting a few injury niggles. I still think the Russian will previal, but Hsieh will trouble her. Will be very surprised if we can't trade out at half her price (or at least double the price if laying Safina).

Tipsarevic (5.3) v Roddick. The Serb is a dangerous opponent on any surface. Roddick should be too good, but if he shows any sign of the shoulder injury he had in Rome, he'll be in trouble here. Expect Tipsarevic to get a set at least.

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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