Skip to main content

Aus Open halfway update on title markets

This was written yesterday for PuntingAce but due to timezones etc, they are yet to publish it. Please forgive what looks to be aftertiming on Bartoli....

AO Halfway Update


The women's draw has been the one most affected by upsets with the lines around Ivanovic and Venus Williams falling away significantly.

In the top half, Jankovic hasn't hit top gear yet, she made hard work of beating an ailing Sugiyama and has tricky opponents from here on in. Versus Bartoli her record is 3-3, Zvonareva 6-4 and Petrova 6-2 - all players capable of beating her on any given day.

The main threat in the quarter for me is Zvonareva. She has been in fantastic form since late last year, but needs to overcome a 1-5 record vs Petrova first. On top of her domination in the singles, her doubles form has been top notch as well (with Azarenka). Petrova is in her best form a while as well. Anyone can win that quarter.

Safina looked very rusty in the opening rounds but returned to something like her best in the win over Kanepi. She should breeze through her quarter now with Ivanovic and Wozniacki gone.

Dokic has been a great story and has impressed me with her court smarts. A blind man could tell you the best way to beat chunky Kleybanova is keep hitting corner to corner (how Ivanovic couldn't suss that out is beyond me). If she plays as well as she did against Wozniacki, you never know...

The third quarter comes down to the match between Cibulkova and Dementieva. The h2h is currently one win apiece. Suarez Navarro has been brilliant in her last two rounds and might go another round, but her run must surely end soon.

The bottom quarter should belong to Serena but Azarenka has been in devastating form so far and won't die wondering if she was up to it. Extremely aggressive player who goes for everything and could possibly catch Serena off-guard if she continues her inconsistent form so far.

Still happy to hang onto the Serena ticket but you might be able to make a few bucks trading any of Bartoli, Cibulkova and Petrova. They're all a huge price and I'd be surprised if they all bomb out straight away.


For all my doubts about Nadal on hardcourt, Rafa is in fine fettle. Hitting winners galore, finding the angles and making very few errors. But it gets harder from here.

Gonzalez won a marathon match over Gasquet, how much energy will he have left on Monday? I don't think he can go much further.

Monfils was the early bet for a trade and he's looking good so far. His aggressive style can blow opponents away quickly, but over five sets, and particularly against a player like Gilles Simon, who came from a set and a break down (opponent traded 1.01) to win against both Federer and Nadal last year, his super-strength rather than stamina could be his Achilles heel.

Andy Murray is flying at present with a great ratio of winners to errors in his clinical dismissal of Melzer. But naturally he faces tougher opponents the further he goes. Verdasco next round is on a rampage, conceding just twelve games in three matches. Murray holds a 5-0 advantage over the Latino leftie, but the improvement in Verdasco has been remarkable in recent months.

We know Tsonga is capable after last year, the doubts have been over his fitness. After his win over Sela, he claimed his back was in perfect shape. Bear in mind that he talks a big talk, how much of it is truth and how much is hot air? His fastest serve in R3 was 25km/h faster than R2, a good sign of spinal health.

The big guns are all in place in the bottom half, with the quarter finals likely to be Roddick vs Djokovic and del Potro vs Federer. But we all know it doesn't necessarily go according to the script. Of those four, I think Djokovic is the one most in danger. He faces the enigmatic Baghdatis first who can never be written off in Melbourne, followed by Roddick who is looking very sharp. If you followed the early advice, we're in a good position with Roddick at 12/1 to win that quarter.

Cilic vs del Potro should be a cracking encounter. They haven't faced each other before and while I expect the Argie to progress, the reverse wouldn't shock.

Federer has looked impressive so far, he knew the dangers of Safin and didn't give him a look-in in R3. Still, I'd rather wait until the final to back him. If he faces Nadal or Murray, he'll still be a decent price and it removes the potential potholes along the way.

What to do? I'm sticking with my original bets - Federer to win it, but will only back him next weekend. The Monfils ticket is worth hanging onto, if he draws Nadal that price could collapse.


Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.


Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.


Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
1510 local 0010 AEST

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…