Academy Awards betting

The Academy Awards - betting bonanza or complete dross? It's probably somewhere in between. I'm not a movie expert by any stretch of the imagination. In fact I reckon I've been to more race meetings this year (once) than to the flicks in the past two yrs. But there is money to be made on these markets.

In my early days working for a bookie, we would have one client ring up from the States to bet on just one thing - the Academy Awards. And this guy was red hot. Not ringing an hour before the event when there may have been a leak but a few weeks beforehand, picking off the value because he knew his stuff much better the couple of guys who much preferred football and cricket.

Awards markets are tricky. You have to understand how the voting is done, historical precedents, how box office figures mean little, the types of roles and films which appeal to the judges, the other award ceremonies (Screenwriters' Guild, BAFTAs etc) which provide strong formlines, how much or how little media hysteria can mean.

Every single betting event has its share of form factors. The more you consider, the better your betting will be. Remember, there are 24 different awards markets on Betfair. Every man and his dog knows all about the Best Actor, Actress, Film, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress awards and who is likely to win them. So dig a little deeper and see if you can spot some value in the more obscure awards where bookies may not have done their homework....

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

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lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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