Skip to main content

Biathlon World Championships - women's individual

This is the most open of all the races at the World Champs, the Betfair market is currently 6.2 the field.

The Individual discipline is slightly different to the other forms (sprint, pursuit and mass start). It's longer - 15km for the women, so they ski five x 3km laps, with four shooting rounds interspersed - two in the prone position (easier for most), two in the standing (very difficult to keep your heart rate down after skiing flat out for so long). But the killer part for trading - any misses in the shooting incur an automatic one minute penalty, not having to ski a penalty loop of about 25 secs as per the other events.

So the shooters come to the fore here. Miss five targets out of 20, and you are automatically five minutes behind the clear shooter. There won't be too many (if any) shooting clear, but keeping those misses to an absolute minimum, even by taking an extra 15 seconds to shoot is vital.

The cute choker Magdalena Neuner isn't competing, this event isn't her forte, so the favourite is Swede Helena Jonsson who won the Pursuit on Sunday with only two misses. Slower skiers with very good shooting records - Solveig Rogstad, Marie Laure Brunet and Natalia Levchenkova.

The men's individual yesterday had two longshots in the placings, and that is definitely on the cards.

Trading advice - keep laying the short ones, but don't take on too much risk. Any Other always trades too low as well, there are 20 runners already in the Betfair market, highly unlikely the winner will come from there. The more runners you can lay, the better your overall book becomes as there should be several competitors in with a chance of winning during the race.

Starts shortly on Eurosport 1!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...