how to start a riot - change commission structure at an exchange

North American betting exchange Matchbook will be fairly anonymous unless you bet on US sports regularly. This week they've announced changes to their commission structure, switching from the commission on winnings model which everyone else operates to a fees per trade structure. Funnily enough, that hasn't been popular with punters - the SBR forum thread has gone ten pages so far, and doesn't look like stopping anytime soon.

The question is - is this Matchbook trying to stimulate business or trying to stay profitable?

By charging market makers less than market takers (people accepting offers), this encourages people to post odds and make the markets more competitive rather than just suck up liquidity. But the fee-per-trade option kills off the trader who bets again and again in-running, as I love to do.

Staying profitable though is another consideration. Betfair's annual reports shows they make nearly 25% of profits from the interest on client deposits. With the financial world collapsing, that income stream is gone for the foreseeable future. And if they don't have the peripheral products such as casino or poker, then their margins will be very tight. Any plans for growth and development have to be funded somehow, and if the banks aren't lending either, then perhaps, just perhaps funds are tight?

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It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Wimbledon preview - women

Unfortunately this year I don't have the time to write comprehensive Slam previews anymore so I'll sum this one up pretty quickly - it's all about Serena. 1 - Serena Williams. In incredible form. Since bombing out in R1 of the French Open last year, she has lost just three times - to Kerber (Cincinnati QF), to Stephens (Aus Open QF) and to Azarenka (Doha final). She has won three of the last four Wimbledon finals plus the Olympic gold last year where she dropped just 17 games in six rounds, against opponents which included four former world #1s. All that considered though, I can't have her at 1/2 (1.50) on Betfair. She just has to be opposed. I can't put a finger on who is going to beat her, but I have to side with her prospective opponents. If you want a smokey to put some small change on, try Maria Kirilenko. Her record in the Slam isn't so great but it has been improving - a best result of R4 last year beaten by finalist Radwanska 7-5 in the third, and

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