Monday, 22 June 2009

Wimbledon Day 1 - bring it on

As posted earlier, my outright previews are available, check Friday's post for the links.

Match comments:

Not overly confident about any match today so make of these what you will...

Almagro has a bigger power game than Monaco, so should be better suited to grass of the two claycourters.

Garcia Lopez is ridiculously short for a battle of two Latinos, but Calleri has had enough of tennis, expected to retire soon. The £12k R1 loser's cheque will pay for a few things in retirement.

Karantantcheva was destined for stardom before she got done for steroids (at the age of 15!). Looked very strong in qualifying from all reports, could go a few rds here although Kleybanova goes well on grass.

Mannarino is a French leftie who prefers fast indoor courts. Should go ok here, but Gicquel is an ironman for stamina, loves winning in five sets.

Kulikova has been dogged by injury and illness for a few yrs. She's only 20 and is highly rated by Russian tennis folk. Sprem has won two ITF titles indoors this year, this will be a decent match.

Barrois hits the ball hard, beat some decent players at Rosmalen last week. Zheng was a surprise semi-finalist here last year, but grass record isn't nothing more than average apart from that.

Santiago Gonzalez is a tall Mexican who loves hardcourts, hits it hard, came through qualifying. Sela had shown no form at all on grass before last week.

Dementieva is pretty short for someone who lost R1 at Eastbourne last week, with her first set being 6-0. Kudryavtseva beast Sharapova here last year (her shoulder was in a bad way though) and almost beat Venus the year before. She seems to fire up here and could be a live chance at odds.

Larcher de Brito looks overs against Zakopalova who dominated in quals, but simply ain't that good. The screeching Portuguese teenager is a top 10 player in the making, something the Czech never had a chance of doing.

Robredo has a shocking record on grass. The qualifier he faces isn't much good but if it becomes a mental battle and he starts remembering previous disasters here...

Karlovic has lost his past four R1 matches here, and the kid he is playing has five won events at lower levels this year. If he can take Karlovic into a fourth and fifth set, the big man will wilt.

Llodra has the perfect game for grass but a shocking record. He's playing a Brit who is no better than average, but he has a pretty solid serve, if he can hold that consistently, Llodra has to withstand the pressure.

Montanes is utter rubbish away from clay - has won just three matches of 22 in Grand Slams not called the French Open. But the guy he faces isn't that crash hot either.

Wickmayer is on fire this year and I've done very well out of her, but I think she has come up rather short against Vesnina who has halved her ranking this year.

Dushevina looked good at Eastbourne last week, really giving the ball a whack against Petrova, then won on retirement. Got blown away by Wozniak in the next round though. She faces Cornet who has had a horrid run lately, but she did appear quite relaxed amongst the crowd at Eastbourne last week. Perhaps she's out to some value now.


So no strong tips today, will probably just stick to trading in-running, looking for players who go too short too soon (market over-reacting to an early break of serve).

For daily injury and fitness updates, visit this PuntingAce forum thread

2 comments:

  1. About to write my own post, but a couple of things struck me from reading yours -

    i. Wickmayer, like Tanasugarm and Dancevic, got turned over after last week's efforts. I've been looking for the benefits of grass court form, but is the formula I'd use for the rest of the year ( don't back last week's winner ) more important?

    ii. I think Wimbledon's slower paced than s'Hertegenbosch or Queens. I think Montanes, Robredo, Martin etc probably will still get demolished on the really fast courts, but have Wimbledon slowed it down to give these guys a chance?

    iii. From seeing Kudryatseva at Edgbaston, she's more of a bunny boiler than Dementieva!

    ReplyDelete
  2. i - Wickmayer did face a very handy player, thought she came up too short as I alluded to. The other two were a surprise. Betting against the previous week's winners works most other weeks, why not here.. especially as they get no concession re starting date, like they would at regular tour events.

    ii - the grass changed to a harder, slower variety several yrs ago. The weather also plays a part. During Queen's & Birmingham week, it was raining. It hasn't rained since, making the courts harder, higher bounce etc

    iii - a significant % of the women's tour have mental issues

    ReplyDelete

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