Friday, 2 October 2009

Redknapp plunge - price manipulation at its best?

Has someone been having a go at manipulating the betting markets over the last 24hrs? Several UK bookies have suspended the book on Next Premier League Manager to Leave after substantial backing for Harry Redknapp starting last night. The man himself denies it, which doesn't mean a lot considering when he outright denied he was going to Portsmouth in a press conference as Southampton manager a few years ago, whilst the price on him getting the job was getting smashed on Betfair, allegedly by people he knew rather well....

But this one doesn't make a lot of sense, unless there's a lot going on behind the scenes. We saw a few weeks ago where market manipulation was the sole reason behind a massive plunge on Rafael Benitez leaving and Franck Ribery heading to Anfield. It seems that here, some guys with plenty of money to splash around have tried to skew the books by backing Redknapp from any old price into single digits before the market closed, almost certainly creating arbitrage opportunities somewhere, or simply a much bigger price on the manager they wish to back, such as Paul Hart. There's obviously a better than tenuous link between Harry and Portsmouth, but why on earth he'd go back when the club is going tits up is beyond me.

It won't be the last time this happens. How exactly can bookies or authorities stop it? If you're a punter, the best advice is don't be a lemming and just follow the money blindly - understand why a move is occurring if you want to get behind it.

1 comment:

  1. From what various people have been saying on Spurs forums today, the reason behind this plunge if not manipulation is more likely to be revelations and possibly arrests in the transfer bung case over the weekend than a return to Pompey.

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