Skip to main content

Cup Day guide

Short comments on the Cup field:

# Viewed – flying, don't see any problem with being top weight.
# C’est La Guerre – is it 100% fit? Chance if it is.
# Fiumicino – big run at Caulfield, bolter chance for the place.
# Master O’Reilly – never a fan, will no doubt look like it was unlucky at some stage and fly home
# Mourilyan – best of the imports, not keen on the 'needs to be ridden cold' comment from trainer. You don't get that luxury in the Cup.
# Roman Emperor – he goes well, price a bit silly over the weekend, should be around 10
# Ista Kareem – will run the distance, slowly.
# Crime Scene – UK form not flash, and did little at Geelong.
# Munsef – no, has been winning ordinary races in the UK
# Zavite – might get the sit from gate 3, if can sit close then could be pushing for third.
# Alcopop – great form, on the up etc. But can a bloke who has never ridden at Flemington before and a novice trainer win the big one? Huge story if they do, and I know one of the owners.
# Harris Tweed – only fifth run this campaign, and his best runs in the autumn were 5,6,7,8,9 in. Trainer not to be underestimated.
# Kibbutz – had done nothing until the MV Cup. Have to look at the replay again but think I'll have him in for the place.
# Newport – running on late in recent runs, chance for a place.
# Warringah – trainer said happy with finish in the front half. Ebor form this year is rubbish.
# Gallion’s Reach – was going well this time last year in NZ, fluke 2nd at huge odds in Auckland Cup 08 got him into field.
# Spin Around – 9yo, 3rd up into this. No.
# Basaltico – don't think he is good enough, mind you, I thought the same about Bauer. Have to watch Geelong Cup run again. Wasn't beating much in the UK.

** just watched Geelong Cup again, was given a horrible ride, must go into the trifectas at least.

# Cape Cover – not good enough
# Daffodil – a few doubts on her running the distance, suppose you never know until they do. Needs luck from gate, and somehow Munce managed to get boxed in in a four-horse race on Saturday...
# Shocking – rate him higher than Alcopop because of the trainer & jockey experience. Gate makes it tough but has the class. Kav could do with a turn of luck after terrible run of luck.
# Allez Wonder – ran 3rd in VRC Oaks but hasn't stayed her last two at 2400. Don't think so.
# Changingoftheguard – had issues, is immature and form from Ebor Hcp is poor. If it was a real chance, Aidan O'Brien wouldn't have given him up.
# Leica Ding – Weir is flying at present, she's a chance for 2nd/3rd.


I'm already on Viewed, like Shocking and Leica Ding for place chances. Included in my trifectas will be Fiumicino, Mourilyan, Roman Emperor, Zavite, Alcopop, Harris Tweed, Kibbutz and Daffodil. The pool size for the Cup and the amount of mug bets (lucky numbers, mystery bets etc) put so much extra value into the pool if something gets into the frame at a big price.

On the rest of the card:

Be wary of Indulgent in the 2yo race, R1. Smerdon knows how to land a plunge, but very tough when most of the juveniles are unraced and they have to go in front of a huge crowd (or at least those who have got there by 10.20am!!)

R2 Holy Guacaoley each-way

R3 very keen on Oak Heart, huge run last start, unlucky.

R4 Ortensia has way too much class for these

R5 Definitely Ready will go around very short, for good reason. Give it a miss.

R6 Majestic Music and Starry Eyed could be over the odds.

R7 The Cup, see above. Beware, if betting on h2h with Betfair, the first runner must finish in the prizemoney (first 10) for bets to stand. Silly local rule, part of them getting approval from racing authorities...

R8-10 - haven't bothered to look.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…