Skip to main content

weekly summary and here comes the footy!

Too many tidbits, not enough time for full-length articles...

The mystery in the Betfair/Danny Nikolic/Neville Clements inquiry in Australian racing gets deepers with professional punter Neville Clements being warned off all Australian racecourses indefinitely, no doubt as a refusal to share phone records which will incriminate him. There is plenty more to come in this story. Let's hope if a conviction is warranted, then it is reached, unlike the farcical scenes of the Fallon case in the UK a few years back.

It's March, so Italian football is looking dodgy again. On the weekend we had the Chievo-Cagliari boat race which went as planned, but last night a Serie B match was taken off the board by all and sundry but then didn't go as planned. All the money was for a draw between Vicenza and Crotone, but the away team won 2-0, even with 10 men! Did the authorities tell them they were being watched very closely, or was it the case of a few punters trying to spoof the market and reaping the rewards? It has happened in tennis a few times now, and everyone will believe it when the grapevine says an Italian game is fixed....

Centrebet have explained their lack of announcement to the Australian Stock Exchange re potential takeovers by way of confidentiality. Sportingbet have announced they are not going to proceed with a bid, and I seriously doubt Hills will go ahead either. Do Ladbrokes have the cash to buy them out?

Cheltenham was massive for bookies and a fast-track to the poorhouse for most punters. When the placepot pays £41k on Gold Cup day, that's not a good sign for punters. The High St bookies say they won about £60m off a hold of about £600m - I reckon they've toned that down a bit after they were attacked for being greedy and irresponsible when they scooped the pool on the Grand National last year, when Mon Mome won at 100-1. But the poor old UK Tote held a rather poor £10m for the week - that's 1.67% of the estimated industry turnover for the week. Why would anyone want to buy them when they are that irrelevant to UK racing? Sure, they could be a bargain if they were valued like that, but the Govt has a very unrealistic expectation of them. They are a lame duck.



Big news of the week for sports fan is real footy, Aussie Rules, starts tomorrow. If you're in the UK like me, you can watch a few live games of AFL each week on ESPN UK. My poor suffering Richmond are in the opening game, against the arch-enemy, Carlton. The great man, Richo (featured in the photo), won't be there unfortunately, he retired in the off-season and will be farewelled with a lap of honour before the game.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...