Skip to main content

well, that's us stuffed!

Very disappointing start to the World Cup for Australia. Yes, we were dreaming beyond our ability about beating Germany, but a draw wasn't totally out of the question. Team selection was a little puzzling, with Kennedy left out and Cahill & Garcia thrown up front, against two huge centre-backs... and then virtually all our attacks were in the air. I know Cahill has played up front for Everton, but that was with decent creativity behind him. Kewell obviously isn't fit, we knew before the match he was unlikely to play.

That one decent chance in the first few minutes might have changed the game if it had gone in, but after that, we were wholeheartedly thrashed. Germany looked very good, with several fresh faces not seen at this level before. Ozil, apart from his ridiculous dive which rightfully got carded, looked very dangerous and four of the five strikers bagged goals. If they haven't peaked too early, they will be right in the mix for the final.

Our defence looked old and slow. Lucas Neill has a reputation as a leg-breaker, and was lucky not to get sent off for a knee straight in the back of Klose, very little attempt to get the ball. Cahill copped a shocker from the Mexican referee who obviously keeps the local Brylcreem factory in business. Yes it was a sloppy tackle, but there were no boots in there, no malice at all. It wouldn't even have got in the top 10 worst tackles of the match.

Without Cahill, we are stuffed. Avenues to goal are almost entirely snuffed out, and our only hope of qualifying now is winning the remaining group games. Ah well, at least it leaves me more time to do the form for Royal Ascot and Wimbledon!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…