Skip to main content

Monday roundup

Not got as much time on my hands at the moment, so I'll try to keep the site fresh with a weekly update as a minimum...

Betfair shares break back through the £10 mark as their financial trading arm LMAX flounders. The newly-recruited CEO has gone after just three months; sounds like either a major difference of opinions or a long walk off a short pier. Also leaving is 'Chief Products and Services Officer' Matthias Entenmann. Considering the service these days is the most criticised part of the business from customers and the major shareholders will be looking for scapegoats, my guess is his share options had matured and he decided to jump before he was pushed.

The quest for licensing in Europe continues, and is messy as always. Greece started off with a ridiculous 6% turnover levy and have now switched to 30% GPT, which won't be too popular either, but at least it's manageable in a jurisdiction switching from monopolistic margins. The Greek government has also dropped the suggested 'black' period where prospective licensees would have to shut down their business to Greek clients until their licence was granted.

UK bookmakers are ruing the cost of betting promotions for Cheltenham after all it did was increase their liabilities on winning favourites. It is an incredibly competitive market on the Cheltenham Festival, going Non-Runner No Bet so far out should only force the margins up on each race, but if bookies choose to stay competitive with firms who don't offer NRNB, then how do they expect to profit if any of the favoured runners don't start? Conversely, this Saturday will be the Grand National where every mug punter in the land will have a bet and the bookies will make the SP look so fat even Weight Watchers would give it no chance of survival. If you plan to bet on the National, take a fixed price in the morning (when all the corporate bookies are competitive), not in the afternoon when all the bookies like shortening prices to take advantages of the punters who don't know a thing about percentages.

And finally, the Party Gaming & bwin merger is complete but instead of being called Pwin like some suggested, they've gone for bwin.party.

I'm planning a longer article on the dreadful state of California horse racing pools later in the week, the increase in takeout percentage has not gone down well with punters, as anyone with half a brain could have worked out in the first place...

Comments

  1. Hi There,

    First of all, good luck with your betting quest, I am a big fan of certain betting strategies and will follow your progress via the Sport is made for betting blog with interest.

    I was wondering if you would be interested in a link exchange with my blog?
    If its not something you are interested in, no worries.

    I have already linke dyou up to my blog.

    FOLLOW MY RACING BLOG 'PLAYING IT SAFE'

    http://vikingflasghip.blogspot.com/

    All the best!


    Dean

    ReplyDelete

Post a comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...