Skip to main content

the excuses are out already

Workforce makes his seasonal debut tonight in the Group III Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown, over 1m 2f, or 2000m for those of us who aren't stuck in the 50s.

This is a horse who last year claimed the self-proclaimed 'biggest race in the world', the Derby, and the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe. In theory he should be the world's best horse, yet his trainer is moaning about having to carry 7lb more than a bunch of G3/Listed horses tonight....


Workforce will really need comeback - Stoute


WORKFORCE will "really need" his comeback run at Sandown on Thursday night, trainer Sir Michael Stoute has warned.

Stoute admitted to concerns over last year's Derby and Arc winner, who will be having his first run since October...



FFS, a horse with his G1 wins under his belt should be able to carry at least a stone (6.5kg for those not stuck in the dark ages) more than his rivals and still win. And as for the distance being short of his best, class should get a champion home on anything close to preferred distance - 1m2f to 1m4f is nothing, especially when fresh. If you're only capable of winning at one distance, then you can't be defined as a champion - just like a horse who can only run on a very narrow band of surface rating. A few folks have queried the strength of last year's form - it certainly wasn't as strong as Sea The Stars' year, how it compares with others is an argument for the number crunchers.

I hope he wins well tonight simply because I want to be able to get a price on So You Think to smash him when they meet... if his connections have the balls to do it. A lacklustre performance tonight could lead to him ducking the star from the southern hemisphere in his campaign, or even going straight to stud.

They breed 'em soft over here....

Comments

  1. impressive win last night, great run from the runner-up too. Bring on the clash with So You Think!

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…