Skip to main content

Royal Ascot form - Tuesday

Take this with a grain of salt as I've had a few shockers with my last big UK racedays (with mates at Cheltenham and Epsom), but hopefully there'll be some info in here worth noting.

QUEEN ANNE STAKES

Great match race between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova, don't see anyone else upstaging them. Goldikova has been there done that so many times, why would you oppose her? 13 Group 1s amongst her 16 wins - wow. The formline behind her was backed up today with Cirrus Des Aigles winning a G3 at Longchamp, beating Stacelita. Canford Cliffs is damn good though. Will sit back and watch.

KING'S STAND STAKES

Have been surprised how short Star Witness has traded over the past week or so - I just don't think he's that great. He won his first three starts, including the Blue Diamond, Melbourne's biggest 2yo race, but his only win since (in seven starts) was the Coolmore Stakes at Flemington last October. It was a G1 but I'm not that convinced how strong it was. 4/1 is unders for me.

Working down the market - the trainer of Sole Power is worried about how soft the track is

Kingsgate Native has been here before and come up short - has been unplaced at his last seven G1 starts.

Overdose is the Budapest Bullet who flopped at his first run in the UK, complaining that Haydock was like concrete. He'll get some cut in the ground tomorrow.

Bridgetown is getting plenty of love from folks who follow American racing. Ran 54.03 for 5f at Gulfstream in March, darn quick but don't know how that compares with regular times there, or if the track is sloped etc. Will go like the clappers, is drawn the middle of the track.

Prohibit - best win of his seven has been a Listed race. Will run a good, honest race but can't see him stepping up.

Astrophysical Jet - impressive last year, could be good enough to win this if she kept improving at the rate she did last season. Found track too hard at Newmarket on her return - EDIT reason given for Newmarket failure was a virus.

War Artist - 8yo who equalled the best run of his career in Dubai last start, beaten a head by JJ The Jet Plane who would start a clear favourite in this race. If in the same form, he'll be close but probably just a length or two short of winning.

Sweet Sanette - the flying female from Hong Kong. Brilliant record over 1000m (8 wins, 2 seconds). Beat Sacred Kingdom last start (with 16lb advantage) but had been within a length of him at two previous starts at set weights. Loves a straight track, and is drawn next to Bridgetown so should get a gun run.

Tangerine Trees - great win at Newmarket beating several of these rivalsthen failed at Haydock, perhaps due to hardness of the track like Overdose?

Keen on Sweet Sanette each-way, and will be including Tangerine Trees in the exotics.

ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES

How do they beat the superstar Frankel? Was the Guineas win a revelation or just his true form? Sir Henry Cecil has said they'll try to run him a little more restrained this time - will Tom Queally be able to restrain him? He should win and win well, but believe it or not, I had a dream last week he got rolled - but I don't know who by!

I always like Japanese horses abroad and Grand Prix Boss will be a great price each-way here. Excelebration was outstanding in the German Guineas apparently and Dream Ahead shared top 2yo rating with Frankel last season. Don't forget Dubawi Gold beat everything but Frankel in the 2000 Guineas and Wootton Bassett has never lost in the UK.

Smaller field than the 2000 Guineas but probably hotter opposition. I'll lay Frankel if he ets too short, otherwise just back Grand Prix Boss each-way.

COVENTRY STAKES

Very tough but impressed with Trumpet Major in his two starts. Unlucky on debut, got crowded up for a long way before being beaten a nose and short head. Absolutely pissed in at Goodwood. Gatepost looked a bit green with more improvement to come at York, and who knows how good Italo could be? Will oppose Mezmaar as I just don't rate Richard Hills as a jockey.

ASCOT STAKES

I'm making a concerted effort to stay out of the handicaps this week.

WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES

Not sure I'll get time to do all the tapes for this one, so important to watch the replays with 2yo races. No idea at this stage....

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

The Cup review

James McDonald feels the emotion of winning the Melbourne Cup on Verry Elleegant. (photo credit Darrian Traynor/Getty Images) With every man and his dog doing Cup previews these days, perhaps a postmortem of the race provides more value - at least for these more serious about the game or want something to refer back to in 363 days' time. It was great to see Flemington basking in the warm spring sun, with no threat of rain which buggers up the confidence you have in the state of the track, an integral part of betting on horses. The crowd was back, at least about 10% of the normal Cup day crowd, but 10,000 more than were allowed last year. Let us never have to deal with these restrictions again in our lifetimes. The TV coverage - well, um, ugh. On Derby Day, I was able to watch the racing.com stream in the UK while Sky Sports Racing kept to their normal NSW-controlled Sky Racing Aus coverage which denies that Victoria and South Australia exist. For Cup Day, they switched to the Chann