Skip to main content

Royal Ascot form - Tuesday

Take this with a grain of salt as I've had a few shockers with my last big UK racedays (with mates at Cheltenham and Epsom), but hopefully there'll be some info in here worth noting.

QUEEN ANNE STAKES

Great match race between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova, don't see anyone else upstaging them. Goldikova has been there done that so many times, why would you oppose her? 13 Group 1s amongst her 16 wins - wow. The formline behind her was backed up today with Cirrus Des Aigles winning a G3 at Longchamp, beating Stacelita. Canford Cliffs is damn good though. Will sit back and watch.

KING'S STAND STAKES

Have been surprised how short Star Witness has traded over the past week or so - I just don't think he's that great. He won his first three starts, including the Blue Diamond, Melbourne's biggest 2yo race, but his only win since (in seven starts) was the Coolmore Stakes at Flemington last October. It was a G1 but I'm not that convinced how strong it was. 4/1 is unders for me.

Working down the market - the trainer of Sole Power is worried about how soft the track is

Kingsgate Native has been here before and come up short - has been unplaced at his last seven G1 starts.

Overdose is the Budapest Bullet who flopped at his first run in the UK, complaining that Haydock was like concrete. He'll get some cut in the ground tomorrow.

Bridgetown is getting plenty of love from folks who follow American racing. Ran 54.03 for 5f at Gulfstream in March, darn quick but don't know how that compares with regular times there, or if the track is sloped etc. Will go like the clappers, is drawn the middle of the track.

Prohibit - best win of his seven has been a Listed race. Will run a good, honest race but can't see him stepping up.

Astrophysical Jet - impressive last year, could be good enough to win this if she kept improving at the rate she did last season. Found track too hard at Newmarket on her return - EDIT reason given for Newmarket failure was a virus.

War Artist - 8yo who equalled the best run of his career in Dubai last start, beaten a head by JJ The Jet Plane who would start a clear favourite in this race. If in the same form, he'll be close but probably just a length or two short of winning.

Sweet Sanette - the flying female from Hong Kong. Brilliant record over 1000m (8 wins, 2 seconds). Beat Sacred Kingdom last start (with 16lb advantage) but had been within a length of him at two previous starts at set weights. Loves a straight track, and is drawn next to Bridgetown so should get a gun run.

Tangerine Trees - great win at Newmarket beating several of these rivalsthen failed at Haydock, perhaps due to hardness of the track like Overdose?

Keen on Sweet Sanette each-way, and will be including Tangerine Trees in the exotics.

ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES

How do they beat the superstar Frankel? Was the Guineas win a revelation or just his true form? Sir Henry Cecil has said they'll try to run him a little more restrained this time - will Tom Queally be able to restrain him? He should win and win well, but believe it or not, I had a dream last week he got rolled - but I don't know who by!

I always like Japanese horses abroad and Grand Prix Boss will be a great price each-way here. Excelebration was outstanding in the German Guineas apparently and Dream Ahead shared top 2yo rating with Frankel last season. Don't forget Dubawi Gold beat everything but Frankel in the 2000 Guineas and Wootton Bassett has never lost in the UK.

Smaller field than the 2000 Guineas but probably hotter opposition. I'll lay Frankel if he ets too short, otherwise just back Grand Prix Boss each-way.

COVENTRY STAKES

Very tough but impressed with Trumpet Major in his two starts. Unlucky on debut, got crowded up for a long way before being beaten a nose and short head. Absolutely pissed in at Goodwood. Gatepost looked a bit green with more improvement to come at York, and who knows how good Italo could be? Will oppose Mezmaar as I just don't rate Richard Hills as a jockey.

ASCOT STAKES

I'm making a concerted effort to stay out of the handicaps this week.

WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES

Not sure I'll get time to do all the tapes for this one, so important to watch the replays with 2yo races. No idea at this stage....

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…