Skip to main content

Aidan O'Brien - genius or fool?

There’s no denying that champion Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien is good at his trade, you only have to look at his record to recognise that. But then again, if you were looking after a never-ending production line of bluebloods bought or bred by some of the wealthiest men in Europe, wouldn’t you fancy yourself to win a few decent races?

This is a guy who never has to worry about grinding out winners in the bottom tier of racing, just to put food on the table or hang onto some owners. He never has to fight against owners who want to move to a bigger stable promising fame and fortune, or don’t agree with his methods. Just imagine how long O’Brien would last if he was trainer for Nathan Tinkler and Patinack Farm?

He has a bottomless pit of resources, and it matters little if one of his promising horses doesn’t quite measure up – they’ll just be lined as pacemaking fodder for the next potential superstar in the stable. It’s all about producing stallions for them – a friend of mine bought a close relation to one of their stallion prospects last year at auction, with the intention to go jumping with it and win a race at Cheltenham. Any mention of jumping on the family tree is deemed to slash millions from potential earnings in a stud career. The Coolmore production line couldn’t allow that to happen and made the syndicate an offer they couldn’t refuse, within hours of the auction.

O’Brien has waxed lyrical about So You Think throughout the year, possibly the best he’s ever had, nothing can keep up with him at home, what a beast of a horse etc.. But for two poor sets of tactics, he should probably be undefeated in Europe. In the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot, he was slaughtered by Ryan Moore by a stupid pacemaker which went way too far in front, causing Moore to fire the champ up way too early in pursuit and get nabbed on the line by the ill-fated Rewilding.

I travelled over to Paris for the world’s finest race, the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, with an Aussie flag in my backpack ready to fly it proudly when he streeted clear in the final 200m. Hell, the nude run up the straight wearing the flag as a cape was not a million to one if the dream came true. With any decent luck, I had him coming out on top after crossing to take a sit near the pace – the way he always races!
..


For the full article, visit Tote Tasmania's blog.

Comments

  1. Scott, we are thinking along the same lines. So You Think was clearly mismanaged. A shame really.

    JM (www.mypunts.com).

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…