Skip to main content

Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase preview

Once again it's Dan Kelly attacking a wide open handicap..


Whereas yesterday was a day for the market leaders this race most certainly hasn't been punter friendly with last 4 winners being priced 25/1 18/1 33/1 66/1 and I fancy an upset here. These are my 3 against the field:

Matuhi ran a good 6th in this race last year off 135, and even though here rated 144 I feel he has a better chance round this time round. He finished third behind Calgary Bay and Hectors Choice back here on New Years Day, both have gone on to bigger and better things, Calgary Bay winning the Skybet Chase, and Hectors Choice running a gallant second to Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase. What is the clincher for me is Tom Bellamy in the saddle. Not only does he take 10lbs off his back, this claimer is 3 from 7 over fences, and won at this track back in November on Swing Bill.

As per my thoughts on the Jewson, Micheal Flips is running in the wrong race, and on the back of that I think the drop back in trip is going to suit The Cockney Mackem greatly. He has form on good ground, and his run behind Micheal Flips reads well given what he did in the Scilly Isles. Wouldn't be Cheltenham without a Twiston-Davies winner.

An interesting jockey booking is the basis of the final selection, Paddy Brennan on Life Of A Luso. Ran a good 3rd to Billie Magern here in October, and a decent 5th over hurdles in April shows the track will not be an issue. Never jumped at Ascot, and was given a sighter at Kempton, picking up best part of £3k in the process. Overpriced in a race that is full of exposed handicappers.

Follow Dan on Twitter, @muffinmannhc.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

-------------------

Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…