Skip to main content

Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase preview

Once again it's Dan Kelly attacking a wide open handicap..


Whereas yesterday was a day for the market leaders this race most certainly hasn't been punter friendly with last 4 winners being priced 25/1 18/1 33/1 66/1 and I fancy an upset here. These are my 3 against the field:

Matuhi ran a good 6th in this race last year off 135, and even though here rated 144 I feel he has a better chance round this time round. He finished third behind Calgary Bay and Hectors Choice back here on New Years Day, both have gone on to bigger and better things, Calgary Bay winning the Skybet Chase, and Hectors Choice running a gallant second to Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase. What is the clincher for me is Tom Bellamy in the saddle. Not only does he take 10lbs off his back, this claimer is 3 from 7 over fences, and won at this track back in November on Swing Bill.

As per my thoughts on the Jewson, Micheal Flips is running in the wrong race, and on the back of that I think the drop back in trip is going to suit The Cockney Mackem greatly. He has form on good ground, and his run behind Micheal Flips reads well given what he did in the Scilly Isles. Wouldn't be Cheltenham without a Twiston-Davies winner.

An interesting jockey booking is the basis of the final selection, Paddy Brennan on Life Of A Luso. Ran a good 3rd to Billie Magern here in October, and a decent 5th over hurdles in April shows the track will not be an issue. Never jumped at Ascot, and was given a sighter at Kempton, picking up best part of £3k in the process. Overpriced in a race that is full of exposed handicappers.

Follow Dan on Twitter, @muffinmannhc.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

hope for investors in the Centaur scandal?

In a breaking story, it has been reported that directors of the failed sports investment fund Centaur have had their assets frozen in order to repay investors. It is believed that managing director Keith Sobey skipped town trying to avoid prosecution however he either naively thought Ireland was a safe enough place to hide or had a lingering feeling of guilt and sat waiting for that knock on the door. Sobey, the name behind Centaur ( read the original story here ), is believed to own four houses, worth more in total than the missing £1.6m. His willingness to sell them to repay investors is likely to keep the matter out of the courts, and at least one other director, Andrew Cork, will apparently follow suit. All this adds weight to anecdotal evidence that the collapse of the fund came down to mismanagement rather than fraudulent deeds. As costs grew (why would you set up a training academy in central London?), margins evaporated and keeping the business afloat went through money like