Skip to main content

RSA Chase preview

Excellent work from @marcowenbanks who will be writing a few previews for the blog this week.

Grands Crus plans are finalised and the RSA Chase it is, in preference of the Gold Cup. BOBS WORTH is still in the picture although The Old Bill might want a word!

So David Pipe has finally made the decision that GRANDS CRUS should run in the RSA. A good decision in my mind as I don't think the Gold Cup is any place for a Novice and it could have ruined the horse. Not such a good decision if, like me, you had been getting heavy on alternatives thinking he was indeed going to throw him in the deep end.

So GRANDS CRUS is the one to beat, no one is in denial of that, the question is can anything else in the race actually do it. There is no doubt he is a frightening talent. Unbeaten in three outings over fences, he has also proved he is more than capable of coming up the Cheltenham Hill in winning here twice over hurdles previously and the proud boast of being the horse who has got the closest to Big Bucks over the smaller obstacle when a length and three quarters down on him in the World Hurdle at last years festival. He made his chase debut a winning one over the Cheltenham Fences beating good markers in Champion Court and Zaynar and has gone on to remain unbeaten beating the likes of the now absent Silviniaco Conti and the re-opposing BOBS WORTH at Kempton on Boxing Day. There looks to be little point in opposing him in this race, unless of course you consider the 7/4 odds too short. In the great scheme of things, if he is one of the "Bankers" that everyone is talking about including the obvious defending champions, he could turn out to be very good value at the price. So what of the opposition?

BOBS WORTH has won on all three of his previous visits to Cheltenham, albeit over hurdles including last season’s Albert Bartlett Over 3 miles. His two previous wins here came over 2m4f. What we do have on our hands with Nicky Henderson’s charge is a gutsy little gelding who will give his all regardless of conditions. He won his debut over fences, beating Cue Card a short head at Newbury over the 20 furlong trip. Stepped up to 3 miles next time out he was taking on Grands Crus and Paul Nichols’ Silviniaco Conti at Kempton in the Feltham Chase, he kept on well enough at the end, but could make no impression on the front pair. There is no real reason why we should expect him to improve beyond Grands Crus based on how easily the latter won the race. His second in the Reynoldstown threw some doubt for some into his chance, personally i think it will put him just right.

The Irish interest lies with FIRST LIEUTENANT and SIR DES CHAMPS. The former is reported as looking very sharp and the absence of Last Installment can only be a positive as he would have struggled to reverse their previous form. Sir Des Champs has seen plenty of support in the market and is certainly one for consideration for each way backers. A place looks the least he can manage and he could even pose a threat to the favourite if he continues to improve. Remember, this 6yo is precocious talent who is yet to taste defeat either over hurdles or fences; Another in the fearsome Mullins armoury for 2012. Tricky to split the pair the former is proven at the trip.

Paul Nichols only involvement now lies in JOIN TOGETHER. He has been fairly unassuming in what he has beaten in his last two outings, but has shown an ability to come up the hill at Cheltenham on both occasions, a best price 13/2 is not that appealing but he adds to what is a fascinating race. WALKON represents Alan King for whom there is much confidence coming into the Festival, the fact he seems to have gone backwards over fences in his three runs does not really leads me to want to get involved however even at 33/1. Not so the case with the other Mullins runners. LAMBRO is passed over in favour of stable mate CALL THE POLICE who is a standout 25/1 with Boylesports and looks to be crying out for the trip. It could be that he could run into a place. I am resisting the temptation of adding extra investment though. i think this is between the two heading the market.

I'm not adding any further investment to my Antepost tickle and BOBS WORTH remains my selection. Backing on the day I feel he will drift. 7/2, maybe 4/1 might be achievable as Grands Crus could gain further support, especially if the "bankers" go in on Tuesday which I expect them to

BOBS WORTH 1pt win. Try for 7/2 or bigger on the day

Read more of Marc's great material on his website


Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.


Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places

With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)


The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…