Skip to main content

4:50 2m4f Handicap Hurdle preview

Dan Kelly, @muffinmannhc, again with this listed, non-terrestrial TV, race.


This handicap hurdle has a solid feel to it with novices and confirmed 2m 4f specialist coming head to head and here's my three against the field.

Bourne was beat at the 2nd hurdle in the Martin Pipe Condititonals race. Hampered and shunted into the wing of that hurdle, Brooke never looked happy with his position throughout the race and as such I am happy to forgive that run. Either way, you can only be impressed by his win at Ascot, and even off this higher mark the return to this flat track is going to play into his hands. The front two in the market have to prove themselves in a hustle 'n' bustle handicap, Bourne passed that test with flying colours.

Of the bigger priced runners, two catch my eye. Firstly Arthurian Legend seems to have crept into this race under the radar. He won the Silver Trophy Handicap at Chepstow smoothly off 125 and comes here only 8lbs higher after runs which suggest he can still has a good race in him. Following that win, he finished 4th to Any Given Day at Haydock, in 3rd that day was Attaglance in receipt of 5lbs, today there's a turnaround of 16lbs for that 1 3/4l defeat. He flopped over fences, and looking to prevent his novice status for next year he was a staying on 3rd to Dream Esteem over an inadequate 2m1f trip. Back to his preferred trip then he is of interest at 25s.

Like Minded has shown a liking for this trip and at 25s looks overpriced. He started the season with a non staying effort behind Sivola De Sivola but followed this up with a sound 3rd to Knights Pass at Kempton. Didn't enjoy his experience over fences, and was given too much to do when behind Attaglance at Cheltenham Festival and this track does seem to prefer the closers.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...