Skip to main content

4:50 2m4f Handicap Hurdle preview

Dan Kelly, @muffinmannhc, again with this listed, non-terrestrial TV, race.


This handicap hurdle has a solid feel to it with novices and confirmed 2m 4f specialist coming head to head and here's my three against the field.

Bourne was beat at the 2nd hurdle in the Martin Pipe Condititonals race. Hampered and shunted into the wing of that hurdle, Brooke never looked happy with his position throughout the race and as such I am happy to forgive that run. Either way, you can only be impressed by his win at Ascot, and even off this higher mark the return to this flat track is going to play into his hands. The front two in the market have to prove themselves in a hustle 'n' bustle handicap, Bourne passed that test with flying colours.

Of the bigger priced runners, two catch my eye. Firstly Arthurian Legend seems to have crept into this race under the radar. He won the Silver Trophy Handicap at Chepstow smoothly off 125 and comes here only 8lbs higher after runs which suggest he can still has a good race in him. Following that win, he finished 4th to Any Given Day at Haydock, in 3rd that day was Attaglance in receipt of 5lbs, today there's a turnaround of 16lbs for that 1 3/4l defeat. He flopped over fences, and looking to prevent his novice status for next year he was a staying on 3rd to Dream Esteem over an inadequate 2m1f trip. Back to his preferred trip then he is of interest at 25s.

Like Minded has shown a liking for this trip and at 25s looks overpriced. He started the season with a non staying effort behind Sivola De Sivola but followed this up with a sound 3rd to Knights Pass at Kempton. Didn't enjoy his experience over fences, and was given too much to do when behind Attaglance at Cheltenham Festival and this track does seem to prefer the closers.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Wimbledon preview - women

Unfortunately this year I don't have the time to write comprehensive Slam previews anymore so I'll sum this one up pretty quickly - it's all about Serena. 1 - Serena Williams. In incredible form. Since bombing out in R1 of the French Open last year, she has lost just three times - to Kerber (Cincinnati QF), to Stephens (Aus Open QF) and to Azarenka (Doha final). She has won three of the last four Wimbledon finals plus the Olympic gold last year where she dropped just 17 games in six rounds, against opponents which included four former world #1s. All that considered though, I can't have her at 1/2 (1.50) on Betfair. She just has to be opposed. I can't put a finger on who is going to beat her, but I have to side with her prospective opponents. If you want a smokey to put some small change on, try Maria Kirilenko. Her record in the Slam isn't so great but it has been improving - a best result of R4 last year beaten by finalist Radwanska 7-5 in the third, and