Friday, 20 April 2012

Doncaster Day preview

It's Sydney's big day of racing this Saturday, but they've had plenty of rain (>150mm in 48 hours midweek). The fields remain strong and most horses in Sydney have some sort of wet track form anyway. The guys from @Priomha share their homework with you below. If you need a formguide, this is the place to look - Racenet.
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It would not be a Sydney Autumn Carnival without wet weather playing a huge role. And so it is this weekend. Sydney has been receiving torrential rain this week and whilst the sun is shining at the moment we can be assured of a significantly rain affected surface. In spite of the surface there are winners and value to be found and that is the job at hand. We will preview the three Group 1 features.

Race 5 - ATC Oaks, 2400m (1416 AEST/0516 BST)
This is the autumn staying feature for the 3yo fillies and the renewal this year has pulled together a bunch of ordinary combatants, bar #1 Streama. Streama is clearly the best horse in the race having amassed a string of Group wins in its 12 start career. The only threat to it winning is its ability to run a strong 2400m in the testing conditions, but this aspersion can be cast over the entire field. With a small field, and the need to ensure all runners can plough through the mud and stay the journey a moderate speed is likely and this will suit Streama. We are not however prepared to take $1.60 to find out how well the race will suit it. We have her clearly on top but at $2.00. She is the best horse and it should win as class will take her a long way but she is currently no value. The second favourite, #2 Full Of Spirit is also under the odds. A couple of runs back she was in a lowly benchmark race in NZ and last start beat walkers over 2000m. We will be laying her @$5. Of the others #5 Thy looks most likely as it bred to stay and has run a couple of nice races over 2000m in the lead up to Saturday. #4 Aliyana Tilde is sure to keep plugging away, as will #s 3 & 6.

The best way to extract value from the race is the play the multiples with the favourite.

Selections: 1, 5, 4, 2
Lay: #2 if $5 or less

Race 7 - Doncaster Mile, 1600m (1535 AEST/0635 BST)
The Doncaster is arguably Sydney's best race and again it has pulled a capacity field of 22 (before scratchings) over the famous Randwick mile. The favourite is #2 More Joyous and we are prepared to risk her. She has a great record admittedly, but does not like the heavy ground and is giving weight to some good horses. One of these is #6 Sincero. We think it is great value at $9 on the exchange and we put him on top. #3 Shoot Out has bounced back to form and is coming off a good run last start over 2000m. He will be fit and the slog through the mud will not bother him. #10 Secret Admirer is a back-marker, drawn barrier 22 and will charge home but we don't think she can win. If she gets in below $6 we will lay her. Of the others first four chances to #s 1,9, 13,14,15 but we are keen on #6 Sincero.

Selections: 6, 3, 13, 1
Lay: #2 & #10 if $6 or less

Race 8 - The Galaxy, 1100m (1615 AEST/0715 BST)
Like the Oaks, this is hardly a Group 1 feature with most of the field a rung or two below the top grade. None of the runners have previously won a Group 1, meaning that at race's end there will be a bunch of very happy owners. The race is made even more tricky by the fact that all of the runners relish the wet conditions. We rate it $8 the field so finding the winner will mean a profitable day. Like the Doncaster we don't like the favourite #4 Bel Sprinter. It regularly misses the start, gets back and will need luck. At $5 it is a lay. The other runner tight in the market is #14 Nobby Snip. It has been smashing 3yos recently but Saturday is a different story. It has an undeniable chance but needs to be $10 for Priomha to be interested. So where does this leave us? #2 Temple Of Boom loves the wet and whilst it is only a Group 2 winner, as stated, this is a very poor Group 1 and at $10 on the exchange we like it. #11 Elite Falls should have won the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate in Melbourne two starts ago and gets her chance to right that wrong here. #6 Hot Snitzel resumes from a spell and will cross over from a wide gate and give a great site. The last 50m will test. #10 Winter King at $30 on the exchange is the real value. Tough race.

Selections: 2, 11, 6, 10
Lay: #4 if $5 or less.

2 comments:

  1. Horse racing with Australian courses is something we're looking to get involved with at BetAdvisor, what is the liquidity like on races there, could a profitable service sustain 50-100 clients without affecting the market too much?

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  2. if looking to get solid money on, then Saturdays are by far the best, and you need to learn the structure of Aus racing - which are the city meetings, which are the country ones, when is carnival/festival time vs when are the standard off-season meetings etc. Plus, big changes in the Aus industry ahead with court ruling against Betfair and corporate bookies. BF now really have to consider their future offering Australian racing as the new fee structure imposed by the major racing states makes it six times more expensive than it was. So I would suggest sitting back and watching what happens until the Melbourne spring (autumn in UK) kicks off.

    If you want to see liquidity, this Saturday's card at Randwick will be a cracker - with G1s from 0430 through to 0730 UK time. Tune in on ATR and watch the BF markets yourself...

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