It's Sydney's big day of racing this Saturday, but they've had plenty of rain (>150mm in 48 hours midweek). The fields remain strong and most horses in Sydney have some sort of wet track form anyway. The guys from @Priomha share their homework with you below. If you need a formguide, this is the place to look - Racenet.
It would not be a Sydney Autumn Carnival without wet weather playing a huge role. And so it is this weekend. Sydney has been receiving torrential rain this week and whilst the sun is shining at the moment we can be assured of a significantly rain affected surface. In spite of the surface there are winners and value to be found and that is the job at hand. We will preview the three Group 1 features.
Race 5 - ATC Oaks, 2400m (1416 AEST/0516 BST)
This is the autumn staying feature for the 3yo fillies and the renewal this year has pulled together a bunch of ordinary combatants, bar #1 Streama. Streama is clearly the best horse in the race having amassed a string of Group wins in its 12 start career. The only threat to it winning is its ability to run a strong 2400m in the testing conditions, but this aspersion can be cast over the entire field. With a small field, and the need to ensure all runners can plough through the mud and stay the journey a moderate speed is likely and this will suit Streama. We are not however prepared to take $1.60 to find out how well the race will suit it. We have her clearly on top but at $2.00. She is the best horse and it should win as class will take her a long way but she is currently no value. The second favourite, #2 Full Of Spirit is also under the odds. A couple of runs back she was in a lowly benchmark race in NZ and last start beat walkers over 2000m. We will be laying her @$5. Of the others #5 Thy looks most likely as it bred to stay and has run a couple of nice races over 2000m in the lead up to Saturday. #4 Aliyana Tilde is sure to keep plugging away, as will #s 3 & 6.
The best way to extract value from the race is the play the multiples with the favourite.
Selections: 1, 5, 4, 2
Lay: #2 if $5 or less
Race 7 - Doncaster Mile, 1600m (1535 AEST/0635 BST)
The Doncaster is arguably Sydney's best race and again it has pulled a capacity field of 22 (before scratchings) over the famous Randwick mile. The favourite is #2 More Joyous and we are prepared to risk her. She has a great record admittedly, but does not like the heavy ground and is giving weight to some good horses. One of these is #6 Sincero. We think it is great value at $9 on the exchange and we put him on top. #3 Shoot Out has bounced back to form and is coming off a good run last start over 2000m. He will be fit and the slog through the mud will not bother him. #10 Secret Admirer is a back-marker, drawn barrier 22 and will charge home but we don't think she can win. If she gets in below $6 we will lay her. Of the others first four chances to #s 1,9, 13,14,15 but we are keen on #6 Sincero.
Selections: 6, 3, 13, 1
Lay: #2 & #10 if $6 or less
Race 8 - The Galaxy, 1100m (1615 AEST/0715 BST)
Like the Oaks, this is hardly a Group 1 feature with most of the field a rung or two below the top grade. None of the runners have previously won a Group 1, meaning that at race's end there will be a bunch of very happy owners. The race is made even more tricky by the fact that all of the runners relish the wet conditions. We rate it $8 the field so finding the winner will mean a profitable day. Like the Doncaster we don't like the favourite #4 Bel Sprinter. It regularly misses the start, gets back and will need luck. At $5 it is a lay. The other runner tight in the market is #14 Nobby Snip. It has been smashing 3yos recently but Saturday is a different story. It has an undeniable chance but needs to be $10 for Priomha to be interested. So where does this leave us? #2 Temple Of Boom loves the wet and whilst it is only a Group 2 winner, as stated, this is a very poor Group 1 and at $10 on the exchange we like it. #11 Elite Falls should have won the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate in Melbourne two starts ago and gets her chance to right that wrong here. #6 Hot Snitzel resumes from a spell and will cross over from a wide gate and give a great site. The last 50m will test. #10 Winter King at $30 on the exchange is the real value. Tough race.
Selections: 2, 11, 6, 10
Lay: #4 if $5 or less.