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when the rain buckets down....lay the field

Have only been dabbling on the lay the fields today, doing some races and missing others through no other reason than time available, and wouldn't you know it, I've missed THREE 1.01s getting beaten (two at Wolverhampton, one at Perth). Best I could manage on a race I got involved in was getting a 1.05 beaten.... however my 'jackpot' line was set at 1.04! Still in profit, just no sign of that big result. So while I was setting up for the big cross-country slog at Punchestown, one of the 1.01s gets rolled at Wolverhampton - missed it because the race times were all out of whack on Betfair and didn't look elsewhere to check.

But then the 4m slog in the bottomless bog at Punchestown came good. Only had two matched at 1.34, just the winner at 1.03, but several on the higher bands. If you've no idea what all this means, I suggest you click on the link to the right which covers the lay the field strategy.

When the ground suddenly changes severely (against recent weeks of racing and training), there should be more chance of horses being found out with their stamina as they bust a gut to plough through it. Whether there's any facts behind that statement though is another matter...

Note there is no science to these numbers and liabilities used for this race, as I was a big field on a very wet track, I fancied going with more lines. The field size also made it far less likely than one get beaten at a very short price - with so many runners, the aggressive IR backers don't crush them as much in big fields, partly to do with the market percentage. So here we had six matched at 3.3, five at 2.34, three at 1.56, two at 1.34 and just the one on the jackpot line 1.03. Lydon House went as low as 1.1, and Tally Em Up got to 1.4, so not far off a bigger payout...

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lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

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Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

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Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

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Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…