Skip to main content

5.35 Newmarket preview

And to conclude Sunday's programme is another handicap, again analysed by Dan Kelly, @muffinmannhc.
-------------------------

Guineas weekend ends with a typically competitive looking 3yo handicap, and here's my two against the field.

Mubaraza was campaigned with a 3yo season in mind when running in his maidens. Backed on debut from 100s into 16s, he stayed on well from the side which was at a disadvantage from the off and looked as though the experience would bring him on. It duly did, but even though stepped up in trip he looked like he needed another at least, plus cover wouldn't have gone a miss as he was seeing daylight throughout. Final run of the season was on the back of a 68 day break, which looked to be enforced as he did miss an engagement in September, and again he showed more than enough that a trip in excess of 8f was needed and also a winter would bring him on as he wasn't knocked about in any of his 3 runs. Today stepped up to 10f is a plus, as is the form of the Dunlop yard where even though small number of runners he's seen place returns from his last two runners.

Good Of Luck has a "fancy entry" in the Investec Derby, and he looked a horse of notable potential when winning a Lingfield maiden early Feb. Settled just off the pace from the off, he traveled easily and lengthened impressively in the home straight to beat a decent, but quirky, horse in Gabrial The Hero. Related to some decent enough sorts, I'm of the opinion official mark of an 82 is on the lenient side.

I wouldn't be too disappointed to see Open Water run a good race, as he was beaten by Main Sequence here in October and he is a horse that is certainly on my Dante radar.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term ' Ponzi scheme ' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up. So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done. T