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Doomben Cup Day preview

It's another big day of racing in sunny Queensland, headlined by the Group 1 Doomben Cup. The team from @Priomha dissect the form in detail....

With Black Caviar at the consulate applying for a visa, the Carnival leaves South Australia and heads north to Queensland for the running of the Group 1 Doomben Cup over 2000m. It is the highlight of an 8-event card, seven of which are black type. With the weather predicted to be fine, the track conditions perfect we will look to steer you into a few winners as we preview the black type features. Doomben is a tight turning track so we will be looking for horses with inside barriers and who will settle on or near the pace. To add a bit more mystery to the day, this is the first time in a while that the track will not be wet - subsequently recent form might not count for anything. Laying the favourites might be the way to go.

R2: Bollinger Champagne Classic, 2yo Group 2 - 1200m (1245 AEST)
We tend to steer clear of 2yo races as there are too many unknowns and not enough race track performances by which to accurately ascertain winning chances. And so it is here. One thing we are very confident of however is that #1 Sizzling will be favourite. The other thing to be assured of is that it will be well under the odds. We have it rated on top at $2.50 but the market has it at $1.80. Yes, it probably will win but we need to look around it for value.
#3 Dances On Stars was well beaten by the favourite last start but was not happy in the wet ground. With a dry track on offer tomorrow, look for an improved performance. At $11 it represents value.
#2 Noogoora Burr won at huge odds last start. It has a victory back in December over the favourite and is again a chance at $6. Of the others, chances to #5 and #7.
Selections:   3,1,2,5
Recommended Investment: take multiples and try and get the favourite beaten

R3: Lord Mayor's Cup, Group 3 WFA - 1600m (1320 AEST)
There are only 10 runners but one can make a case for six of them. The pre-post favourite is the local #6 Solzhenitsyn at $4.50. We rate it at almost double the price and as such we will be looking to lay it at its current quote. Stepping up to Group 3 company, WFA conditions and 1600m are the factors upon which we will risk it. The two horses we like most are #2 Ginga Dude, a solid WFA performer and #10 Divorces who is third up from a spell after just missing out in a Group 2 race at Randwick last month. The problem with Divorces is she is a bit of a non-winner and has a racing pattern that sees her giving the rest of the field a start. It is for these reasons that we will settle on Ginga Dude who will settle on the pace and look the winner at some point. Hard to split it and #10 but we have to. #7 Miss Keepsake comes through the Divorces race at Randwick and looks a good chance, but like #10 will be giving them a start. Of the others #8 Fillydelphia will sit on the pace and will run a good race.

Selections: 2,10,8,7
Recommended Investment: Lay #6 @$4.50 or less; Boxed Multiples

R4: Glenlogan Park Stakes, Group 3 - 1350m (1355 AEST)
These mares SWP races are generally won by the horses at the top of the weights. #3 Wealth Princess is close to a good thing in this race. It returned from two years off after injury, with a slashing second last start. The only thing that prevents us from declaring it is the little doubt over how it backs up. We are going to trust the judgement of the trainer and put it clearly on top. $3.75 at the time of writing is a luxury and we are prepared to take the risk over its fitness. ;#7 Risk Aversion has never missed a place and is the best of the locals along with
#1 Funtantes.
#4 Sophie's Spirit has Spring Carnival form and must be a chance. If #3 is fit however, they will all be racing for second place.
Selections: 3*,7,4,1
Recommended Investment: Wealth Princess; Boxed Multiples

R5: The Roses, Group 3 - 2000m (1430 AEST)
This is an impossible race but we will do our best.
#4 Miss Artistic is the best NZ filly so that will do us. $6 is a fair price to find out if it is better than the Australian fillies. We are happy to have her just ahead of
#2 Invest who won a Group 1 race last start.
#5 Angel Of Mercy is the favourite at the time of writing. We are prepared to risk her given the wide barrier and doubt over her running a strong 2000m.
#9 Quintessential and #1 Dowager Queen are both at double figure odds and must be a chance. The story does not end there as nos 6,7 and 10 are chances.

Selections: 4,2,9,1
Recommended Investment: #4 Miss Artistic (1 unit win x 4 units place);
Lay #5 @$5.00 or less;
Boxed Multiples; wide in Quadrella (Leg 1)

R6: Fred Best Classic, Group 3 - 1350m (1505 AEST)
If R5 was impossible, then this is at best confusing. The prospect of a dry track is what makes it tricky with a lot of runners looking set for improved runs. #6 Mental is the pre-post favourite and deservedly so. It could be a star but at $2.50 in opening markets it is way too short. It is a huge chance but we need value. #15 Punch On represents the value in the race. At $10 we are happy to put in on top on an each-way basis.#9 Amah Rock is up from Victoria and will run well at a good price. #1 Easy Running is a great chance whilst #5 Morning Captain will be prominent. The race does not end there!!

Selections: 15,6,9,1
Recommended Investment: #15 Punch On (1 unit win x 4 units place);
Lay #6 @$3 or less;
Boxed Multiples; wide in Quadrella (Leg 2)

R7: Doomben Cup, Group 1 - 2000m (1550 AEST)
WFA races are generally won by proven WFA horses...at least that is the theory we will be looking to follow. With that the case #1 Manighar should win. It has been the stand out middle distance WFA horse in the Autumn and this looks set to continue. Take the $3 on offer and one will get a great run for their money. #10 Shez Sinsational won narrowly but well last start stepping up to 1800m. She is fit, strong and the 2000m will suit. #2 Scenic Shot has won this race twice and despite his age he can be guaranteed to run well again. Of the others #6 Foreteller is yet to prove himself at WFA, #9 Mawingo is probably not up to Group 1 and #11 Lights Of Heaven ran its best race in over a year last start and as such we think she is a risk of doing it twice in a row.

Selections: 1*,10,2,11
Recommended Investment: #1 Manighar; Lay #11 @$4.50 or less; Boxed Multiples

R8: BRC Sprint, Group 3 - 1350m (1630 AEST)
If you are in front coming to the last race then we suggest lighting a cigar and grabbing a beer. This is also tough. It will be run at a fast pace and for that reason we will be looking for horses proven at 1400m and beyond. If the favourites win then we are in trouble.#2 Tiger Tees and #11 Free Wheeling are both well in the market but we will be looking to lay both. #1 Smokin' Joey the other favoured runner, is drawn wide, first up for six weeks and has the top weight. We will be looking to lay it as well, although we concede that with the pace on and the likelihood of swoopers running on it is the best chance of the pre-post favourites. So we go in search of value. #3 Listen Son has drawn well and will lead, or sit close to it without any effort. It will like the dry track and the $34 on offer represents a spoil as it will look the winner at some point. The last 100m will test. Similarly #9 Gundy Son, #10 Carry Me Bluey and #8 Metallurgical are all double figure odds and will figure in the finish. Of those mentioned we will put #10 on top on the basis of it being the strongest to the line.

Selections: 10,3,9,1,8
Recommended Investment: #10 Carry Me Bluey (1 unit win x 4 units place);
Lay #s 1,2 & 11 @$4.50 or less;
Boxed Multiples

Courtesy of www.priomha.com

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