Skip to main content

Makti Suffolk Stakes preview

Handicap expert Dan Kelly, @muffinmannhc, dissects the form of the opening race of the Newmarket weekend.

1400 Newmarket Makti Suffolk Stakes

This race saw the beginnings of an incredible rise through the ranks by Green Destiny last season, resulting in dual Group 3 success and a far from disgraced 6th in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, however I very much doubt this years renewal has a lurker of that potential.

Fury is currently heading the market and I can understand why. Gelded in the summer he has returned to some semblance of the form that saw him win the sales race here back in Oct 10 on similar going, and backers will be hoping he holds his form much longer into the season than last. Yet with such doubts, and also the fact he's racing here 5lbs higher for the nk defeat at hands of Captain Bertie were he never once looked at getting past, I'd be surprised if there wasn't one lower in the weights that will put it up to him.

Danadana has seen some money in the early markets, and Mr Cumani on his site suggests a good run is expected; "The trip is possibly just on the short side but whatever happens we'll be disappointed if Danadana doesn't turn out to be a better horse than he's rated currently." Given that Fallon has done 8-6 in the last 12 months, I'm quite surprised to see Turner in the saddle, and also this is her first ride for the yard since 2010. Dam being a 12f winner, this trip on the drying ground is a slight negative, and I have the sneaking suspicion that this could very well be a sighter following an injury inflicted lay off.

Memory Cloth is next in at the prices, I was at Ripon, he had a dream trip, and I'd be surprised that even in a field as exposed as this could he be fighting for anything other than place honours at best.

The two which I think deserve closer scrutiny at bigger prices are Dick Doughtywylie and Las Verglas Star.

Dick Doughtywylie ran in a seemingly good maiden on debut finishing 2l behind Eagles Peak in 3rd. He showed a fondness for this galloping course, and reviewing runs at Goodwood and Chester, the return to such a track would have been in his favour. Slightly surprised I was then to see him running in the City & Suburban Handicap at Epsom, but given the prize pool then that would have to have been the only attraction, as post maiden win at a turning track like Chester, Marc Halford stated the track "wasn't the best for him". To his credit though he was still there on the inside 2f pole, and Buick reported that the gelding was unsuited by the heavy going. On that basis then this run can be readily excused, yet he's available at a price that suggests it was his true running, 14/1.

Another had excuses last time was Las Verglas Star who anticipated the start at Pontefract, and given usually prominent running style was done for from the off, again comes here overlooked in the market at 25s. Paul Hanagan has chosen Pleasant Day and I can only think that this is down to the fact that he's back to a winning mark of 87, won of 88 at Ripon last year, more than anything else. Las Verglas Star is still relatively unexposed at this trip, bar the Ponte run he has finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd in Class 2 races over 10f, at all times suggesting that it his petrol light would have been flashing. Back over this shorter trip, with no truly confirmed front runner he should be able to sit just off a steady gallop and stay up the hill well enough to outrun his 25/1 quote.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...