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Wagga Wagga Gold Cup Day preview

Here we are, JAM Media Wagga Wagga Gold Cup Day for 2012. A day where it should be easier to find a winner than Town Plate day, according to Alex Donnelly (@alexdonnelly14).

The Cup itself is a fantastic race where there are six genuine chances and a few outsiders if things can go their way on the day.

Race 1 - 12:40PM WAGGA RSL CLUB MAIDEN PLATE (1200 METRES)
In what can be looked at as a very weak opener I have to put SNOWGUMS on top. A last start 2nd at Goulburn which was not a bad run at all, she had previously run 4th behind HENDRICUS. SIENNA SNIP goes in for 2nd, she got bloused last start right on the line and if she gets her own way in front again she will be hard to catch. DOS MAS is my third pick. She got way too far back last start and ran on very well to run second but will find this tough. AL'S CHOICE for fourth, he resumed with a decent effort, but might need longer than 1200m to be really competitive.

13 – SNOWGUMS
12 – SIENNA SNIP
7 – DOS MAS
1 – AL'S CHOICE

Race 2 - 1:15PM WALSH AND BLAIR LAWYERS CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
This is such a tough race, I found it hard to get this into only four selections. POINTING TO GOLD came out on top. He was very impressive last start when winning at Wagga and I can see him going on with it again. CAPROSSA is the second elect he won his first start well running away from them, don't be surprised if he does this again. PRANCING who ran second last start when getting way too far back should be running on well again here for third. ISACZAR came from the middle of the field last start and finished off nicely for a deserved win the extra 100 metres should suit.

4 – POINTING TO GOLD
1 – CAPROSSA
8 – PRANCING
11 – ISACZAR

Race 3 - 1:50PM FITZPATRICK'S REAL ESTATE CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
I am very confident in my top selection here, he is very green but with the experience of the one ride on the horse from Rockin' Rod Quinn I'm very confident that LIVING ON A PRAYER will win this. He has only had three starts: he won his first, missed the kick and charged home for third, and in his last two, nothing has gone right for him. If he is switched on he will beat this field easily. FULL HAND is second pick. Two starts ago he ran second to TAHBRONTE, who LIVING ON A PRAYER beat on his debut, he won very well last start and is a clear next pick. BARDIYA completes the trifecta, he could produce a very nice run first-up and with Hugh Bowman on board will lob in a nice spot. JOKE A LOT is included for the First4s, he ran well at Hillston last start when carrying 61kgs.

7 – LIVING ON A PRAYER
4 – FULL HAND
1 – BARDIYA
9 – JOKE A LOT

Race 4 - 2:25PM WESTRAC CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
This looks a very good race with a lot of form from all around NSW here. I have put TAHBRONTE on top here. He cost me a bundle last start when getting run down late by a very smart horse. He is a genuine 1000 metre horse and with Peter Robl on he should jump and dictate and win the race well. ROSIE'S CAUSE for second, she won well last start at Gosford and coming back in class to Wagga can only suit her yet again. GREY DRAMA jumped and led last start and nothing came close to running him down. My top pick will just be to nippy for him and he can take a sit. COSMO is my next best. Brian Cox and Blake Shinn could have a big carnival as they are pairing up a fair few times over the two days, but unfortunately not this race, he will run well but cannot win.

6 – TAHBRONTE
4 – ROSIE'S CAUSE
8 – GREY DRAMA
1 – COSMO

Race 5 - 3:00PM JASON WAGGA GROUP 3YO MURRUMBIDGEE GUINEAS (1600 METRES)
We arrive at the first leg of the quaddie, the second biggest race of the day in my view, the Murrumbidgee Guineas. Last year's race was a cracker with Southern Shimmer coming from the clouds to beat Alma's Fury right on the line. Let's hope this year we can have a repeat performance.
PRINCE PEDRO is the one to beat here. At his last start in the Guineas Prelude he gave the field 4.5kgs and was only beaten 1.5 lengths by one of my other selections. Dropping down 4 kgs to 55.5 he should get the run of the race. With Peter Robl on board who has won on him previously gives me even more confidence. ISLE BE READY is a very smart horse and my next elect. He is the class horse of the field, I remember him running through heavy ground at the Kenso track on a Wednesday in August over 1400 and running away and with the chance of a soft track, he could do it again. He has had a freshen up when running last behind Landing last start, but The Murrays would not be coming here if they didn't think they could walk away with the cash. LEXICAL AMBIGUITY was a dominant winner of the Guineas Prelude last start thanks to a fantastic ride by Matthew Cahill, but with the drop in weight for my top pick I doubt he can do it again. People will call me stupid for this but TRIBAL ROCK is my fourth pick in the race yes he is two from three and trained by Gai Waterhouse. But he did beat nothing last start and the Guineas prelude was a stronger race than that, which is why I have him fourth pick. By the time this race rolls around, all the horses will be swooping and he most likely will lead. He will come up very short in my view but it's poison odds to back him, there's no value but he is a good chance. An outside chance is MEGAHALAYA

5 – PRINCE PEDRO
1 – ISLE BE READY
8 – LEXICAL AMBIGUITY
2 – TRIBAL ROCK

Race 6 - 3:35PM PATINACK FARM QUEEN OF THE SOUTH (1400 METRES)
A very open race like most years. The Queen of the South will be a hotly contested race with many chances. I've settled on the favourite MAGNOLIA LANE to get the cheque. She just didn't handle the heavy ground last start and previously had charged home from last to run a very good second first up at Canterbury. Getting out to 1400 suits and if there is pace on she will swamp them late. MINNIE DOWNS for second, Brian Cox has elected to come to this race instead of the Guineas which indicates that he is confident of winning this as this is a stronger race against older mares. She charged home to win last start at Bendigo going up to 1400 from her last start win helps, but like my top selection will be running on late. JESSE'S MISS has been in very good form of late just not winning. Yet again I cannot see her winning this, but she will run her usual good race but will just miss out here. SAPPHIRE PRINCESS beat ISLE BE READY 2 starts back at Kembla. The drop back to 1400 does worry me a little, however she will be right in the finish.

4 – MAGNOLIA LANE
13 – MINNIE DOWNS
10 – JESSE'S MISS
9 – SAPPHIRE PRINCESS

Race 7 - 4:15PM JAM MEDIA 2012 WAGGA WAGGA CUP (2000 METRES)
Here we are. The main race of the carnival the Listed Wagga Wagga Gold Cup. Apart from the favourite RAIN DRUM it is an open race with many chances. Listen out for caller Allan Hull to say “And the gates crash back in the 2012 Jam Media Wagga Gold Cup”. I have comprised my preview horse by horse.

1) EXTRA ZERO

Trainer: David Hayes (Euroa)     Jockey: Hugh Bowman 58kg     
Barrier: 15  Record: 36:4-7-1
The winner of the Albury Cup when given a brilliant ride by Nash Rawiller. He got a soft lead that day then failed next start at Rosehill. I cannot see him repeating his efforts from Albury here, given the amount of horses that will go forward in the race.

2) LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra (Flemington)    Jockey:Ms Michelle Payne 57kg
Barrier: 4  Record: 24:7-2-3
Last year's Kyneton Cup winner. His last few runs have been encouraging in Melbourne. 4 of his 7 wins have been over the 2000m and he will be coming home strongly. Good chance.

3) ROI D’JEU (NZ)
Trainer: Craig Ritchie (Warwick Farm)     Jockey: Josh Adams 55kg (a) 
Barrier: 9  Record: 28:8-3-2    
The smokey of the field in my opinion. He is first up here off a 3 month break, he has had two trials leading into this. Boasts an excellent record over the journey and has to be considered. Just if he is up to this first up is my worry.

4) VINTEDGE
Trainer: Chris Waller (Rosehill)     Jockey:     
Barrier:7  Record: 42:6-5-11   
She is an honest old mare. Will run her typical nice race, as she is the only Chris Waller runner of the day she will have her admirers on that alone. She just couldn’t finish off last start in the Frank Packer Plate. This is a drop in grade but i still doubt that she can win this.

5) BID SPOTTER
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson (Randwick)     Jockey: Christian Reith 54.5kg     
Barrier:12  Record: 37:7-1-3
Ran very nicely in the Albury Cup. He looked as if he had turned the corner, then last start at Rosehill only beat a few home. I don’t think he can win this. But do not be surprised if he runs a cheeky race. Place chance

6) LEGSMAN
Trainer: John O'Shea (Randwick)     Jockey: James McDonald 54.5kg  
 Barrier:11 Record: 31:5-7-9 
Yet to win over the distance of 2000m. But has won 3 times over 1900. He is 2nd up coming into this. He gets well in the weights here. Ran very well 1st up in a much tougher race and is a genuine winning chance.

7) LODGE THE DEEDS 
Trainer:Gwenda Markwell (Kembla Grange)     Jockey: Blake Shinn 54.5kg  
Barrier:6  Record: 39:7-6-3
Has not run a place in a long, long time and hasn’t won since 2009. Not for me.

8) WORLD WIDE 
Trainer: Bede Murray (Kembla Grange)     Jockey:Peter Robl 54.5kg   
   Barrier:17  Record: 30:6-7-3
Not going as well as he was this time last year when he went down by the narrowest of margins. His last 2 runs have been very poor after a nice run in the Albury Cup. If he can find his best he has a chance, but i doubt he will.

9) COLISEO
Trainer: Norm Gardner (Canberra)     Jockey: Jeff Penza 54.5kg 
     Barrier:13 Record: 21:5-4-5 
His close up 5th to Maules Creek 2 starts ago was a fantastic run. Then stepping up in distance to the Manion cup possibly didn’t run the trip out. He drops back to the 2000 again and has a very good record over the trip. Chance.

10) RAIN DRUM
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse (Randwick)     Jockey: Tommy Berry 54.5kg   
Barrier:10 Record: 8:4-1-3
A deserved favourite. He ran away from them last start at Canterbury over 1900 the rise to 2000 will not bother him. My only query is that leaders might struggle late in the day tomorrow (Friday), but this is a minor concern. Top hope.

11) AGENT BAUER 
Trainer:Gwenda Markwell (Kembla Grange)     Jockey: Brendan Ward 54.5kg    
Barrier:16  Record: 24:6-2-2
A very good winner of the Murrumbidgee Cup last start. He got the right run and was in receipt of a track bias on that day when 7 of 8 winners were in the first bunch on the turn. But in saying that he did what he had to do and is a place chance.

12) SOUTHERN SHIMMER
Trainer: Ross Stitt (Taree)     Jockey: Robert Thompson 54.5kg     
Barrier:2 Record: 22:8-1-4
Has taken a while to get warm this preparation. Ran on well last start at the Kenso track, just whether he will be able to run out a strong 2000 is my query. Place hope.

13) ILRINGYA 
Trainer: Luke Pepper (Moruya)     Jockey: Jay Ford 54.5kg  
Barrier:1  Record: 54:7-12-4
Draws the inside. I’m not sure whether this will be the place to be late in the day. So he might struggle. Not for me.

14) COSMIC FURY
Trainer: Kevin Hanley (Albury)     Jockey: Bradley Vale 54.5kg     
Barrier:14 Record: 43:9-4-2  
Outclassed here

15) DEVISED 
Trainer: Tim Donnelly (Wagga Wagga)     Jockey: John Kissick 54.5kg (a)   
Barrier:18  Record: 10:4-0-1 
The local hope. He cannot draw a barrier of late but it might not be too bad here to be wide with the way the track has played. He finally gets out to the 2000 which he has been crying out for all prep. Got to far back last start on a leaders track before closing quite well. Same again happened before that in the Gundagai Cup when he should have won. With the likelihood of a good pace in the race and the track suiting the swoopers I can see him powering over the top of them and possibly winning this race. Good chance.

16) CODE WORD 
Trainer: John Marzol (Moruya)     Jockey: Nathan Berry 54.5kg    
Barrier:8 Record: 35:5-4-4
Has been going ok of late without threatening. Not here.

17 EM) RIVERINA HIGHWAY
Trainer: Geoff Duryea (Corowa)     Jockey: William Pearson 54.5kg
   Barrier:5  Record: 28:6-3-3 
Has a good record at the track. But peaked early in his prep and has not been going well as of late. If he gains a run I will not be on him.

18 EM) BON DIA
Trainer: Peter W Stanley (Orange)     Jockey:Ms Robyn Freeman-Key 54.5kg  
Barrier:3  Record: 50:2-4-4
2 wins from 50 starts says it all. No hope.

10- RAIN DRUM
15 – DEVISED
2- LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
6 – LEGSMAN


Race 8 - 4:55PM WAGGA WAGGA MARKETPLACE BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
We arrive at the final race of the Cup carnival and it is a pin job here. I've settled on GENERAL JAY DEE. He was slaughtered two starts back at Canberra then got out-bobbed in the Town Plate prelude. With a nice claim here from Annelise King, he should get a nice run in transit and win this. I've marked SHOOT THRU BLU for second, he is blessed with early speed, which surprisingly is a worry as I want to be getting off the fence in the last race of the carnival. But with a soft lead and a smart ride from Brendan Ward he is a chance. BAD KITTY is another with a chance here. Things did not go right for her first up and all of her wins have been over lesser ground, but she should finish well late. SETGO to fill the top four, he has run well under big weights in his two runs back from a spell and should run his usual honest race.

7 – GENERAL JAY DEE
11 – SHOOT THRU BLU
18 - BAD KITTY
1 – SETGO

On a great day's racing here at Wagga Wagga I have found it hard to find a best bet, but here goes.

Alex Donnelly's Best Bet
Race 4 Number 6 - TAHBRONTE

Next Best
Race 3 Number 7 – LIVING ON A PRAYER

Best Each Way
Race 7 Number 15 – DEVISED

Good luck to everyone and good punting!

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