Skip to main content

Diamond Jubilee Handicap preview

Derby Day opens up with one of those tricky handicaps, so our handicap race expert Dan Kelly, @muffinmannhc is back with his preview.

------

The opening race on Derby Day has seen a fair number of horses end up better than just a handicapper, and even though last years renewal was a little thin on the ground, it wouldn't surprise me if this years race housed another Dandino or Conduit. So far at this years Investec Derby Festival we've seen a fair few messy races, and worryingly this handicap has the potential to be also,

Pace is drawn in 10 in the form of Mister Music, other than him I'm struggling for a confirmed front runner, and when looking back at Grandeur race at Goodwood, that was a prerace doubt there also, however it needn't have been. Buick settled him well just off the pace with enough room to move as and when he wanted to, and today in stall 13 he has that option today. Granduer was an improving 2yo, doing everything but winning on debut, he went on to win a Brighton maiden comfortably. His 3yo campaign opened with a Sandown handicap on ground obviously softer than ideal, however at Goodwood he was very strong in the market to suugest that not only would he benefit fot that run, he would appreciate the return to quicker conditions and so it proved. I think he has the potential to be far better than 90, it's all about whether Buick gets a handy position from the off.

It's not often that I am drawn to a runner that took 5 attempts to break maiden, and late to the 3yo handicap scene, but I am looking forward to seeing Star Date here on handicap debut. Not as attractive as others due to connections, and the fact doesn't come here as unexposed as some, he has posted some good efforts, the best of which was his defeat at Chester. He was keen early, but considering he'd have found the ground too soft, he never gave up, and posted a very game effort. The Ripon race fell apart in front of him, but did show the ability to hand a sharp track, as he did again at Chester. Half Brother to Quest FOr Peace, he's yet to encounter his ideal conditions in his 5 runs to date, 10f+, Good to Firm ground, today he does and with a useful claimer taking a further 5lb off his back, he's worthy of close attention at 12s+.

1pt Win Grandeur @ 4s+ 0.5pt Win Star Date @ 12s+

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...