Skip to main content

Epsom Dash preview

The mad downhill sprint they call the Epsom Dash is one of Saturday's 'other' features at Epsom, Jack Milner returns to the blog with his analysis. --------

The Epsom Dash

The Epsom Dash is another highlight of the Investec Derby Festival, with some of the best sprinters around going hell for leather down the straight five furlongs. Good, firm ground is ensured, so we could see a new track record broke, with some of the runners in the race already clocking some very quick times this season.

The race was won last year by Captain Dunne for Ted Easterby, The seven year old usually needs the run, and came on well for that on ground that wouldn’t have suited at Newbury. The third and sixth have come out and won since, and being dropped 2lb brings him to the mark he won the race on last year. He looks the pick of his string, ahead of Confessional who is officially 6lb well in official ratings, after a strong run behind Bated Breath at Haydock last time. The two look the pick of the northern plots, with horses also being sent down from Kevin Ryan in the form of York Glory and Courageous, but York Glory looked seriously rusty last time, and Courageous is running out of the handicap. He has Dickies Lad too, and interesting that Tom Queally is booked to ride. Unless he is burning up the gallops at home however, I can’t see him being a serious player. The north doesn’t look to have any stronger chances elsewhere with Long Awaited for David Barron winning last time out but the four year old looks inexperienced, and his best form is on softer ground. Vocational for Mark Johnston is 10lb out of the handicap, and although Silvestre De Sousa rides Epsom well, he has too much on his plate. Richard Fahey has Jamesway and Arctic Feeling, but neither looks appealing on current handicap ratings. Similarly the David Nicholls trained Fitz Flyer, who is 3lb lower on official ratings, as is the Hughie Morrison trained Sohraab, and looked lacklustre on his reappearance, similarly Living it Large for Ed De Giles.

We can scratch a few more off the shortlist by immediately taking out Diamond Charlie, and Stone of Folca look to be seriously outclassed in a race of this level, and can’t see them even placing in any particular scenario, Similarly with the Irish raider Oor Jock and he has Colm O’ Donoghue booked to steer. He is officially due to go up 2lb for a solid effort on his return at Dundalk, and has been running well in better company, but could be handicapped to the hilt. Taajub looks something of a dark horse, and should the money come, be interesting. Campaigned over the winter, he looked to suit the change to turf when running a good second over course and distance last time out.

The remaining players all look to have strong claims, but are plenty short enough in the market. Bear Behind, Catfish, Judge N’ Jury and Desert Law are all within the top ten in the market, and there are plenty reasons why. Bear Behind for Tom Dascombe. Beating Hamish McGonagall before losing in the stewards’ room, and then a narrow defeat to Ballesteros. That form has been franked and then some and he looks to have the progressive type of profile in a race like this. The Brian Meehan stable are flying at the moment, so Catfish has to be respected, similarly with Desert Law for Andrew Balding. Both should have come on for their initial runs, and have good form in the past on better ground. Judge N’ Jury looks progressive for Ron Harris, but seems to run better on flatter, less testing tracks.

Bear Behind 2pts EW @ 8/1 BOG
Captain Dunne 1pt EW @ 10/1 BOG

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner, @jjmsports

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...