Skip to main content

Norfolk Stakes analysis

A new contributor this week, Sam Preen, owner of the impressive Soft in Places blog, with plenty of his own content. You can also follow him on Twitter - @sampreen

Norfolk Stakes (Royal Ascot - 2:30 Thursday)

A small but select about of 2 year olds line up for the Norfolk Stakes, with impressive maiden winner Ahern heads straight to Group 2 company after winning a small field conditions stake at Musselburgh earlier this month. A clear winner over similar conditions, this looks much tougher but he can't be ruled out of a place.

One of the more experienced runners in the field, Annunciation heads the market for Richard Hughes and Hannon. Last seen hosing up in a small field maiden at Windsor last month, he appreciated the new tactics of making all the running after breaking well from the stall and didn't see another rival. This looks tougher but with an inside draw and the experience, he should be difficult to beat.

Second favourite and course & distance winner Cay Verde comes here with an obvious chance after running on well in testing ground on his last start here. He went to follow up his success on better going at the Curragh in Listed company, and back at his favoured course, he could be thereabouts.

Outsider Complicator heads to Group 2 company after disappointing in his maiden last week over 6 furlongs. Back down in trip and on better going, this still looks a big ask and he's just here to fill the numbers.

Irish Maiden winner Gale Force Ten improved from his first run when taking a 6 furlong maiden in stamina sapping ground earlier in the month. He didn't show much on his first run over 5 furlongs but improved over further, so he might need an extra furlong to be a serious threat.

Ian's Dream made a pleasing debut when keenness got the better of him in an ordinary maiden earlier this month. With an envious inside draw where he'll be nearest the rail, he will have a clear run and should be thereabouts if he stays focused.

Jubilee Brig's connections skipped the Coventry Stakes so he could try his luck here. Last seen when he won well at Kempton on all weather earlier this month when making all the running. He has been in the frame in all three of his starts (all in maiden company) but looks outclassed here.

Mister Marc runs over 5 furlongs for the first time after finishing a respectable second in horrible going at Naas when finishing behind Dawn Approach in Listed company. Down in trip and on much better ground which he has won on before, he looks difficult to beat with a good run.

Morawij made a good start to his career when taking a 6 furlong maiden at Haydock last time out. Stepping down in trip for his second run and a massive step up in class, this might look a bit too difficult for him to follow up his maiden win.

Ocean Applause disappointed on his first start in maiden company when veering right at the start and blowing it right from the beginning. He came on for the run at Sandown on his last run in Listed company when putting up his best run finishing an unlucky fourth behind Sir Prancealot, though this is much tougher.

Reckless Abandon already has the upper advantage over Annunciation when finishing 2 lengths in front of him at Doncaster in May in a huge field. Taking a keen hold, he made pretty much all of the running in the centre of the track and went on to quicken, though he did end up drifting left and managing to keep on well. This is a massive step up in trip but he can't be ruled out.

Storm Moon racked up two wins in April in smaller company at Southwell and Musselburgh before disappointing in firmer going at Sandown when fading into fifrth on his first start in Listed company. This looks much tougher then a conditions race and will need to seriously improve to win this.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2019

We're back again for the greatest race on turf, the world's richest staying race and the only race in the world which creates a public holiday for millions of locals.




Once again a fine international field has been assembled and it's worth a deep look at the race. So get a cuppa and find a comfortable seat to plough your way through my preview!

--------------------------------

The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)


1. Cross Counter
Trainer - Charlie Appleby (one previous Cup win)
Jockey - William Buick
Breeding - Teofilo - Waitress
Drawn 5, Weight 57.5kg

Last year's impressive winner who doesn't get the 3yo weight advantage this time. Won first up at Meydan in March but has run fourth, third, fourth in the big set weights staying races in England and Ireland, never quite making it as the next big staying star. While running close behind Stradivar…

Westow Stakes - York 16/5/19

The sun was out for a glorious opening day of the meeting, and races down the straight appeared to have no concerns about draw bias. Thursday's card has a few higher profile races but this 3yo sprint is worth watching closely, tomorrow and for future form.



British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes
£50k, Listed & Class 1, 3yo, 5f
York 1605

Soldier's Call - flying machine, winning four of six starts in Britain last season, running third in the Prix L'Abbaye, beaten a neck at WFA then finished sixth as joint favourite in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint. Has plenty on these on ratings, but life's rarely that simple with unexposed 3yos early in the season.

Broken Spear - more exposed than most of these and well beaten by Garrus first up. Missed Chester last week, probably due to the rain (or a poor draw). Pass.

Charming Kid - won at this meeting last season but has been a little erratic ever since. Well beaten on AW Championships Day, appears to be a few lengths off these.

Garrus -…